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1
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
2
1300
1500
1700
1900
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
SampP 500
250
270
290
310
330
Nov-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
STOXX 600
600
800
1000
1200
1400
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
ATHENS GEN INDEX
830
910
990
1070
1150
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
MSCI
L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- BB-
ROMANIA Baa3 BB+ BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BBB BBB-
CYPRUS Caa3 B- B-
Credit Ratings
3
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth -17 20 10
CPI (pa yoy ) 73 84 55
Budget BalanceGDP -64 -56 -55
Current AccountGDP -105 -60 -45
EURRSD (eop) 11230 11534 12300
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 1000 1000 950
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 07 22 22
CPI (pa yoy ) 50 18 30
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -25 -22
Current AccountGDP -40 -12 -15
EURRON (eop) 444 443 445
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 400 400 400
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 08 05 15
HICP (pa yoy ) 24 05 14
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -20 -20
Current AccountGDP -13 03 00
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
195583
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 181237 03 271 EURUSD 13615 01 32 UST - 10yr 275 1 99 GOLD 1255 08 -251
Nikkei 225 1566187 -04 507 GBPUSD 16345 00 06 Bund-10yr 169 0 38 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 VALUE
STOXX 600 32569 02 165 USDJPY 10232 00 -152 JGB - 10yr 061 0 -19 LMEX 3020 00 -126
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 857 -3 -129 ON 178 6 -452 LEONIA 001 0 -3
1-week 878 -3 -167 1-month 194 2 -410 1-month 031 1 -10
1-month 907 -1 -203 3-month 27 2 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 0 -245 6-month 318 1 -309 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 958 -2 -263 12-month 336 1 -294 12-month 224 -1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1123 -3 -70 3Y RON 406 0 -204 3Y BGN 115 -2 -2
5Y RSD 1286 -4 242 5Y RON 468 0 -142 5Y BGN 192 -2 27
7Y RSD 1379 7 104 10Y RON 526 0 -99 10Y BGN 351 0 16
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 521 0 90 EUR Sep-20 398 -5 -69 USD Jan-15 068 -1 -57
USD Nov-24 692 -1 652 USD Aug-23 483 1 42 EUR Jul-17 192 -2 -15
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 422 2 73 5-year 179 0 -36 5-year 126 0 27
10-year 471 1 74 10-year 245 10 -7 10-year 172 NA NA 39
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5416 013 338 BET 63351 094 2302 SOFIX 4685 110 3561
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1141 -009 -127 EURRON 44337 004 023 USDBGN 14366 007 314
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Nov-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
USDBGN
5
2
1300
1500
1700
1900
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
SampP 500
250
270
290
310
330
Nov-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
STOXX 600
600
800
1000
1200
1400
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
ATHENS GEN INDEX
830
910
990
1070
1150
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
MSCI
L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- BB-
ROMANIA Baa3 BB+ BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BBB BBB-
CYPRUS Caa3 B- B-
Credit Ratings
3
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth -17 20 10
CPI (pa yoy ) 73 84 55
Budget BalanceGDP -64 -56 -55
Current AccountGDP -105 -60 -45
EURRSD (eop) 11230 11534 12300
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 1000 1000 950
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 07 22 22
CPI (pa yoy ) 50 18 30
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -25 -22
Current AccountGDP -40 -12 -15
EURRON (eop) 444 443 445
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 400 400 400
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 08 05 15
HICP (pa yoy ) 24 05 14
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -20 -20
Current AccountGDP -13 03 00
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
195583
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 181237 03 271 EURUSD 13615 01 32 UST - 10yr 275 1 99 GOLD 1255 08 -251
Nikkei 225 1566187 -04 507 GBPUSD 16345 00 06 Bund-10yr 169 0 38 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 VALUE
STOXX 600 32569 02 165 USDJPY 10232 00 -152 JGB - 10yr 061 0 -19 LMEX 3020 00 -126
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 857 -3 -129 ON 178 6 -452 LEONIA 001 0 -3
1-week 878 -3 -167 1-month 194 2 -410 1-month 031 1 -10
1-month 907 -1 -203 3-month 27 2 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 0 -245 6-month 318 1 -309 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 958 -2 -263 12-month 336 1 -294 12-month 224 -1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1123 -3 -70 3Y RON 406 0 -204 3Y BGN 115 -2 -2
5Y RSD 1286 -4 242 5Y RON 468 0 -142 5Y BGN 192 -2 27
7Y RSD 1379 7 104 10Y RON 526 0 -99 10Y BGN 351 0 16
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 521 0 90 EUR Sep-20 398 -5 -69 USD Jan-15 068 -1 -57
USD Nov-24 692 -1 652 USD Aug-23 483 1 42 EUR Jul-17 192 -2 -15
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 422 2 73 5-year 179 0 -36 5-year 126 0 27
10-year 471 1 74 10-year 245 10 -7 10-year 172 NA NA 39
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5416 013 338 BET 63351 094 2302 SOFIX 4685 110 3561
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1141 -009 -127 EURRON 44337 004 023 USDBGN 14366 007 314
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Nov-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
USDBGN
5
3
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth -17 20 10
CPI (pa yoy ) 73 84 55
Budget BalanceGDP -64 -56 -55
Current AccountGDP -105 -60 -45
EURRSD (eop) 11230 11534 12300
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 1000 1000 950
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 07 22 22
CPI (pa yoy ) 50 18 30
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -25 -22
Current AccountGDP -40 -12 -15
EURRON (eop) 444 443 445
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 400 400 400
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 08 05 15
HICP (pa yoy ) 24 05 14
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -20 -20
Current AccountGDP -13 03 00
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
195583
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 181237 03 271 EURUSD 13615 01 32 UST - 10yr 275 1 99 GOLD 1255 08 -251
Nikkei 225 1566187 -04 507 GBPUSD 16345 00 06 Bund-10yr 169 0 38 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 VALUE
STOXX 600 32569 02 165 USDJPY 10232 00 -152 JGB - 10yr 061 0 -19 LMEX 3020 00 -126
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 857 -3 -129 ON 178 6 -452 LEONIA 001 0 -3
1-week 878 -3 -167 1-month 194 2 -410 1-month 031 1 -10
1-month 907 -1 -203 3-month 27 2 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 0 -245 6-month 318 1 -309 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 958 -2 -263 12-month 336 1 -294 12-month 224 -1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1123 -3 -70 3Y RON 406 0 -204 3Y BGN 115 -2 -2
5Y RSD 1286 -4 242 5Y RON 468 0 -142 5Y BGN 192 -2 27
7Y RSD 1379 7 104 10Y RON 526 0 -99 10Y BGN 351 0 16
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 521 0 90 EUR Sep-20 398 -5 -69 USD Jan-15 068 -1 -57
USD Nov-24 692 -1 652 USD Aug-23 483 1 42 EUR Jul-17 192 -2 -15
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 422 2 73 5-year 179 0 -36 5-year 126 0 27
10-year 471 1 74 10-year 245 10 -7 10-year 172 NA NA 39
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5416 013 338 BET 63351 094 2302 SOFIX 4685 110 3561
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1141 -009 -127 EURRON 44337 004 023 USDBGN 14366 007 314
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Nov-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
USDBGN
5
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 181237 03 271 EURUSD 13615 01 32 UST - 10yr 275 1 99 GOLD 1255 08 -251
Nikkei 225 1566187 -04 507 GBPUSD 16345 00 06 Bund-10yr 169 0 38 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 VALUE
STOXX 600 32569 02 165 USDJPY 10232 00 -152 JGB - 10yr 061 0 -19 LMEX 3020 00 -126
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 857 -3 -129 ON 178 6 -452 LEONIA 001 0 -3
1-week 878 -3 -167 1-month 194 2 -410 1-month 031 1 -10
1-month 907 -1 -203 3-month 27 2 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 0 -245 6-month 318 1 -309 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 958 -2 -263 12-month 336 1 -294 12-month 224 -1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1123 -3 -70 3Y RON 406 0 -204 3Y BGN 115 -2 -2
5Y RSD 1286 -4 242 5Y RON 468 0 -142 5Y BGN 192 -2 27
7Y RSD 1379 7 104 10Y RON 526 0 -99 10Y BGN 351 0 16
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 521 0 90 EUR Sep-20 398 -5 -69 USD Jan-15 068 -1 -57
USD Nov-24 692 -1 652 USD Aug-23 483 1 42 EUR Jul-17 192 -2 -15
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 422 2 73 5-year 179 0 -36 5-year 126 0 27
10-year 471 1 74 10-year 245 10 -7 10-year 172 NA NA 39
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5416 013 338 BET 63351 094 2302 SOFIX 4685 110 3561
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1141 -009 -127 EURRON 44337 004 023 USDBGN 14366 007 314
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Nov-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
USDBGN
5
5
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