EFFEKTIVE AUFWANDSCHÄTZUNG Wie kann ich in komplexen Projekten besser schätzen?

EFFEKTIVE AUFWANDSCHÄTZUNG Wie kann ich in komplexen Projekten besser schätzen?

Stolz etwas mit Wert und Bedeutung zu erschaffen

Entwicklungsprojekte vs. Geschäftsmodell

Start Ende

Break Even

Entwicklungsprojekte vs. Geschäftsmodell

Start Ende

Problem!

Break Even ?

Strategische Entscheidungen fehlen!

Schätzungen sind ungenau

Unsicherheit

Zeit

gelb gelb

Aussagen sind interpretierbar

1000 1000

Zahlen allerdings nicht

Termine und Budgets sind geschätzt

Effektive Planung

Start Ziel

Mein Troubleshooting-Problem

Effektiver Schätzen

Nano-Prozent Wert

1

Rela

tive

Wahr

sche

inlic

hkei

t

300 500 700 9000

Nano-Prozent

Erwarteter Wert

1

Rela

tive

Wahr

sche

inlich

keit

300 500 700 9000

Erwarteter Wert

Unsicherheit

1

Rela

tive

Wahr

sche

inlic

hkei

t

300 500 700 9000

Worst case

Unsicherheit

Umrechnen

50%

25%

75%

100%

Abso

lute

Wah

rsch

einl

ichk

eit

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Stunden

Ablesen des Ergebnis

50%

25%

75%

100%

Abso

lute

Wah

rsch

einl

ichk

eit

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Stunden

Auf Lücke setzen

Sinnvolle Releaseplanung Releaseplanung Project Temperature/Pressure System

Sample-PhaseRelease:

Planned ReleasedateMechanics - housing featuresMechanics - addon featuresElectronics - basic featuresElectronics - addon featuresSoftware - basic featuresSoftware - addon featuresOptics - basic featuresOptics - addon featuresActors - basic featuresActors - addon featuresSensors - basic featuresSensors - addon featuresDiagnosticsDiagnostic Tools

X N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workCollect customer requirements x 45 70 6 270 80% 175 x 35 70 5 175 80% 121Evaluate customer requirements x 35 70 5 175 80% 121 x 35 70 5 175 80% 121Create systems requirements specification x 60 90 3 180 80% 134Update systems requirements specification x 70 140 3 210 80% 166

Total hours 80% 429 80% 407 0 0 0 0

X N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workDefine systems boundary x 20 45 4 80 80% 60Develop chain of constrains x 50 70 5 250 80% 165Allocate systems requirements x 30 67 4 120 80% 89Create systems architecture specification x 70 120 6 420 80% 275Update systems architecture specification x 40 80 4 160 80% 116

Total hours 80% 589 80% 116 0 0 0 0

N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workEvaluate systems requirements x 20 45 4 80 80% 60 x 5 15 3 15 80% 14Create mechanic requirements specification x 15 25 4 60 80% 42Create electronic requirements specification x 30 67 4 120 80% 89Create optical requirements specificationCreate software requirements specification x 10 23 3 30 80% 25Update mechanic requirements specification x 20 30 5 100 80% 67Update electronic requirements specification x 50 80 5 250 80% 168Update optical requirements specificationUpdate software requirements specification x 30 60 4 120 80% 87

Total hours 80% 216 80% 335 0 0 0 0

N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workCreate mechanic component design x 30 38 7 210 80% 131Create electronic component design x 23 56 4 92 80% 70Create optical component designCreate software high level design x 30 67 4 120 80% 89Create software low level design x 10 23 3 30 80% 25Update mechanic component design x 20 43 5 100 80% 70Update electronic component design x 60 83 5 300 80% 198Update optical component designUpdate software high level design x 30 55 4 120 80% 86Update software low level design x 15 35 3 45 80% 37Total hours 80% 315 80% 391 0 0 0 0

N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workDevelop mechanic components x 150 200 3 450 80% 328 x 30 50 3 90 80% 68 x 150 190 4 600 80% 408 x 50 75 2 100 80% 84 x 90 115 3 270 80% 195Develop electronic components x 120 170 4 480 80% 331 x 65 95 5 325 80% 216 x 70 95 4 280 80% 192 x 30 50 3 90 80% 68 x 35 70 2 70 80% 66Develop optical components Develop software modules x 40 70 3 120 80% 92 x 10 20 3 30 80% 24 x 25 50 3 75 80% 59 x 45 75 3 135 80% 102 x 40 60 4 160 80% 111Update mechanic components Update electronic components Update optical components Update software components

Total hours 0 0 80% 750 80% 307 80% 659 80% 254 80% 373

N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workMechanical system test x 80 115 2 160 80% 133 x 32 40 3 96 80% 69Electronical system test x 75 93 3 225 80% 162 x 28 42 4 112 80% 78Optical system testSoftware system test x 50 70 3 150 80% 110 x 80 110 3 240 80% 176

Total hours 0 0 0 0 0 80% 405 0 80% 322

N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workSetup test concept (Sys+HW+SW) x 8 16 4 32 80% 23Setup system test concept x 10 16 2 20 80% 17EMC tests x 50 90 4 200 80% 143 x 30 70 3 90 80% 75Climate tests x 20 40 3 60 80% 47 x 40 80 3 120 80% 95 x 60 115 3 180 80% 141Environments tests x 50 105 4 200 80% 147 x 30 55 3 90 80% 70Customer tests x 60 80 4 240 80% 164Systemtest x 40 110 4 160 80% 125Develop test plan x 30 60 4 120 80% 87 x 20 50 4 80 80% 61Documentation x 10 15 3 30 80% 22 x 20 30 3 60 80% 45 x 15 30 3 45 80% 36

Total hours 80% 128 80% 131 0 80% 282 80% 147 80% 609

0% 40% 70%

60%

100%

A010 A020 B010

-

100%

100%

80%

C-Sample

0%

-

----

50%50%

Feat

ure

by

Pha

se

21.10.13 18.12.13 18.03.14

Sys

tem

s re

qui

rem

ents

Det

aile

d d

esig

n

0% 30% 35%

30%

80% 100%

90%90%

60% 80%

80%0% 60%0%

-

30%

40%-

20%

80% 100%80%

0% 25% 40%20%

--

-60%

100%-

22.05.14

25% 40%

C020

0% 60% 80%70%

80%

90%

19.03.13 12.07.130%

Div

ison

tes

tsS

yste

m t

ests

A-Sample B-Sample

Sys

tem

s ar

chite

ctur

eD

etai

led

req

uire

men

tsC

omp

onen

t d

evel

opm

ent

35% 70%

B020 C010

Probleme kann man niemals mit derselben Denkweise lösen, durch die sie entstanden sind. (Albert Einstein)

Der Systems Engineering Podcast

www.zukunftsarchitekten-podcast.de