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A global long only equity TMT fund January 2015 DNB Technology Anders Tandberg-Johansen, Portfolio Manager Bei diesem Dokument handelt es sich nicht um die Vortragspräsentation. Bitte treten Sie mit uns in Kontakt, falls Sie diese einzusehen wünschen. Herzlichen Dank.

DNB Technology - fondsforum.at · tittel tekstside tekst bunnlinje venstre innrykk høyre innrykk tekst A global long only equity TMT fund January 2015 DNB Technology Anders Tandberg-Johansen

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Page 1: DNB Technology - fondsforum.at · tittel tekstside tekst bunnlinje venstre innrykk høyre innrykk tekst A global long only equity TMT fund January 2015 DNB Technology Anders Tandberg-Johansen

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A global long only equity TMT fund

January 2015

DNB Technology

Anders Tandberg-Johansen, Portfolio Manager

Bei diesem Dokument handelt es sich nicht um die

Vortragspräsentation. Bitte treten Sie mit uns in Kontakt,

falls Sie diese einzusehen wünschen. Herzlichen Dank.

Page 2: DNB Technology - fondsforum.at · tittel tekstside tekst bunnlinje venstre innrykk høyre innrykk tekst A global long only equity TMT fund January 2015 DNB Technology Anders Tandberg-Johansen

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DNB Technology

• Long-only UCITS global equity fund which

invests in technology, media and telecom

sectors

• Strong and consistent performance record

• Dedicated and experienced investment

team

• Compliant with DNB Asset Managements

SRI policy

2

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Agenda

3

1 DNB Asset Management

3 Investment Process

2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record

4 Risk Management

5 Fund Facts

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DNB Asset Management

DNB is among the largest Asset Manager in the Nordic Region

• Specialist approach to investing

• 76 portfolio managers and analysts

• € 61 billion under management

• Offices in Oslo, Bergen, Stockholm, Luxembourg, and Hong Kong

• 100% owned by Oslo-listed DNB Group

The DNB Group

• DNB is Norway's largest financial services group and one of the largest in the Nordic region in

terms of market capitalization, represented in 21 countries worldwide

• The Group is among the world’s leading banks within shipping, energy and seafood

• The Group offers a full range of financial services, including loans, savings, advisory services,

insurance and pension products for retail and corporate customers and the public sector

4

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Agenda

5

1 DNB Asset Management

3 Investment Process

2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record

4 Risk Management

5 Fund Facts

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Experienced Team

Anders Tandberg-Johansen – Head of Global Technology

Anders joined DNB Asset Management in 1998 as a portfolio manager being responsible for Norwegian

technology portfolios. Since 2002 he serves as Head of Global Technology Equities within the Global Equity team.

Between 1996 and 1998 Anders was a technology analyst with Enskilda Securities. He holds a BA in Finance from

the Norwegian School of Management (BI).

Sverre Bergland – Portfolio Manager, Software

Sverre joined DNB Asset Management in 2001 as a technology equity analyst. He started out his professional

career in 1995, working for ABG Securities as an IT analyst. Sverre holds a BA in Finance from the University of

San Francisco, USA.

Erling Thune – Portfolio Manager, Telecom & Media

Erling joined DNB Asset Management's global technology team in early 2008 where he is responsible for global

telecommunications companies and media. Erling started his career in 1993 as a financial journalist for the

Norwegian Financial Daily. Between 1996 and 2000 he was Senior Vice President and Investor Relations Officer at

Elkjøp ASA, Norway's leading retail company, before joining Telenor ASA – Norway's leading Telecom operator –

in 2000 where he held the position of the Head of Investor Relations. Erling is a graduate of the Norwegian

School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH).

6

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Among the best Global TMT fund last 5 years

7

17.6 % 17.5 % 17.5 % 17.2 % 17.1 % 16.8 % 16.8 % 16.5 % 16.3 % 16.2 %

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Note: Returns as of December 2014, source morningstar.de out of 167 Global Technology funds. Index is "MSCI World TMT" (66% MSCI Global IT, 22% MSCI Global Telecom Services, 12% MSCI Global Media). Inception of fund is August 16th 2007. Historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.

Long only fund awarded best Global Technology Fund 5 year performance

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DNB Nordic Technology Massively beating peers over more than 10 years

8

Global TMT funds – last 10 years (annual) Acc. net return of 591 % since inception in 2001

Note: Inception of DNB Nordic Technology is August 8th 2001. Performance data as of December 31, 2014 (NOK). Peers comparison from Morningstar last 10 years as of December 2014. Historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.

17.9 %

10.4 % 10.4 % 10.1 % 9.7 % 9.2 %

8.4 % 7.9 % 7.7 % 7.6 %

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

DNB Nordic Technology BM ABGTMT (PI) Linked

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Successful Absolute Return strategy

Period MSCI TMT Net return*

sep.07 +2.6% 3.0%

2008 -55.1% 21.3%

2009 +61.9% 22.7%

2010 +10.2% -1.6%

2011 +1.4% +10.2%

2012 +12.7% -10.9%

2013 +26.0% +13.2%

2014 +26.8% -0.7%

9 Source: Grapht is Morningstar Direct per 31/12/2014. Performance is net of fees for TMT with gross swap performance only for Global Hedge. Table shows annual Global Hedge performance untli inception of TMT from 2011 until september 2014. Historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

DNB TMT Absolute Return NOK ST1X MSCI World (NOK) OSE Global Hedge TMT

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DNB Technology - Largest Holdings

10

Stock Holding Over/underweight

Google 9.50 % 4.22%

APPLE 8.48 % -0.96 %

ORACLE 6.53 % 4.32 %

SAP 4.96 % 3.90 %

Samsung Electronics 4.37 % 4.37 %

EXPEDIA 4.00 % 4.00 %

CITRIX SYSTEMS 3.76 % 3.57 %

CISCO SYSTEMS 3.74 % 1.73 %

Playtech 3.15 % 3.15 %

Netgear 3.14% 3.15%

As of December 31. 2014

Largest Positions Weight MCAP

ORACLE CORP 6.66 % 197,480

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd GDR 6.64 % 178,232

APPLE 6.21 % 647,361

GOOGLE A 6.11 % 151,140

SAP STAMM 4.86 % 86,606

CISCO SYSTEMS 4.49 % 142,234

Playtech Plc 4.44 % 3,153

EBAY 3.91 % 69,722

Mellanox Technologies Ltd 3.59 % 1,933

Expedia Inc 3.54 % 9,710

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11

DNB Technology

Relative Performance YTD

Positive contributors Relative

Performance

IBM 0.88 %

QLogic Corp 0.81 %

Oracle Corp 0.72 %

Ubisoft Entertainment 0.69 %

Verizon Communications Inc 0.57 %

King Digital Entertainment Plc 0.56 %

TriQuint Semiconductor Inc 0.55 %

Softbank Corp 0.55 %

Lenovo Group Ltd 0.50 %

AT&T Inc 0.50 %

Negative contributors Relative

Performance

Millennial Media Inc -2.37 %

GameLoft SE -1.97 %

Oclaro Inc -0.89 %

Jds Uniphase Corp -0.73 %

Cyan Inc -0.72 %

Google Inc A-Shares -0.69 %

Juniper Networks Inc -0.67 %

Adva Optical Networking Se -0.61 %

Intel Corp -0.54 %

Facebook Inc -0.54 %

Pr December 31, 2014

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Cash adjusted PE and EPS growth – largest holdings

12

6.8

8.8 9.7

10.9 11.6

12.9

15.9 16.5

17.1 18.0

-7%

5%

8% 6%

9%

0%

20%

8%

17%

10%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2015 PE EPS Growth

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Tech stocks are not expensive

13

12.6 13.1 14.3

15.0 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 17.1 17.5

7% 7%

9% 9%

2%

7%

8%

11%

8% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2015 PE EPS Growth

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Agenda

14

1 DNB Asset Management

3 Investment Process

2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record

4 Risk Management

5 Fund Facts

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Four key elements of stock selection

15

Valuation Earnings rev/

momentum

Continously monitoring approx. 500 stocks

Value

Creation Themes

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16

Themes - Six Important Megatrends

Internet penetration will reach 100% Services moving to the cloud

Internet of things – big data

The battle for the TV screen Payments go mobile

Advertising goes online

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global Population

Internet Population

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Google Strong positions and reasonable valuation

17

• Totally dominating search

• Strong and visionary management team

• Economies of scale – "The winner takes it all"

• Net cash adjusted P/E of 16 in 2015

• EPS growing by appr 20%

• Above 70% gross margin

• USD 45 billion in net cash

• Inflection point mobile search

• Undervalued other assets such as YouTube

• Winner in transition from Offline to online

• Well positioned in most TMT megatrends

Revenues (USD Bn) EPS (USD)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

0

10

20

30

40

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Value

Creation

Valuation

Earnings rev/

momentum

Theme

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ORACLE/SAP Well positioned in the Cloud – low valuation

18

• Global domination in database and ERP

• Very profitable and huge R&D

• Successfully maneuvered technological shifts in the past

• Oracle at 2015 PER of 11x – ex cash

• SAP at 2015 PER of 16x – ex cash

• Improving trends in the cloud

• Continued FCF growth in the 5-10% range

• Cloud threat exaggerated

Reduce

Buy Buy

Reduce

Buy

Oracle

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e

FCF/yield%

SAP

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e

FCF/yield%

Value

Creation

Valuation

Earnings rev/

momentum

Theme

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Netgear Well positioned - strong management - cheap

19

• Strong, commercial and hands on management

• EV/Sales: 0.6

• EV/EBIT: 6

• PE: 10

• Loss of large customer in 2013

• Will grow strongly on Wifi extenders

• Internet of things

• Increased IPTV-viewing

Reduce

Buy Buy

Reduce

Buy

• Extremely good at sourcing and managing retail channels

WiFi extender

Nighthawk WiFi router

Value

Creation

Valuation

Earnings rev/

momentum

Theme

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Samsung Quality company at a big discount

20

• Strong management

• Scale leader in handset and memory

• Uniquely cheap vs own industry and universe

• Estimates marginally slipping (like the industry), but minor compared to valuation

• Tailwinds from mobility growth and increased storage

Dominant in mobile memory Historical fwd P/E ex cash

51%

25%

22% 1%

Samsung Hynix Micron Other

Value

Creation

Valuation

Earnings rev/

momentum

Theme

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Agenda

21

1 DNB Asset Management

3 Investment Process

2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record

4 Risk Management

5 Fund Facts

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Risk management

• Standard deviation combined with stress tests and common sense

• Low concentration of portfolio - 5/10/40 - rule apply

• Structured process for "Approved Counterparty List"

• Low exposure to counterparties (according to UCITS)

- Maximum 10 % exposure towards "large European Financial institutions"

- 5 % towards others

• Low credit risk in interest bearing instruments

• Robust infrastructure for risk management and control called Worldport

22

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Controlling Liquidity Risks

23 "Worldport" extracts are examples only

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Understanding Portfolio Sensitivities

• Risk system based on GRAM (Citi)

• Challenges the manager's fundamental bias

24

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Agenda

25

1 DNB Asset Management

3 Investment Process

2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record

4 Risk Management

5 Fund Facts

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DNB Technology - Fund Profile

Fund managers: Anders Tandberg-Johansen, Sverre Bergland, Erling Thune

Strategy: Long only equity fund

Fund type UCITS: FCP - Long only equity fund

Benchmark: "MSCI World TMT" (66% MSCI Global IT, 22% MSCI Global

Telecom Services, 12% MSCI Global Media)

Risk target: 6-10% TE

Number of holdings: 30-60

Country range: Flexible

Inception date: August 16, 2007

26

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DNB Technology - Terms

27

ISIN: LU0302296495

Liquidity: Daily

Management fee: 1.5% p.a.

Performance fee: 20% (based on accumulated relative performance, no reset)

Front end fee: Up to 5%

Currency: EUR

Minimum investment: EUR 1000

Domiciled: Luxembourg

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As portfolio managers our ambitions are clear

28

Identify winners and losers in changing landscape

Creating uncorrelated absolute returns for investors

Always keeping tight risk management

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Oslo

DNB Asset Management AS

Dronning Eufemias gate 30

N-0021 Oslo, Norway

Stockholm

DNB Asset Management AB

Kungsgatan 18

SE-105 88 Stockholm, Sweden

Luxembourg

DNB Asset Management S.A.

13, rue Goethe

L-1637 Luxembourg

Hong Kong

DNB Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.

99 Queen's Road Central

3305-3306, The Center, Hong Kong

The presentation has been prepared in accordance with DNB Asset Management’s General Business Terms. The presentation was prepared for internal use as information for our clients and

is not intended for public use or distribution. The information contained herein may not be reproduced without DNB Asset Management’s prior consent.

This presentation was prepared on the basis of publicly available information. DNB Asset Management does not warrant that the information in the presentation is exact, correct or

complete. The opinions expressed herein reflect the views of DNB Asset Management at the time. DNB Asset Management reserves the right to change its opinion without notice. Any

written material distributed must be seen in the context of the oral presentation. DNB Asset Management will not accept responsibility for direct or indirect losses incurred as a result of the

interpretation and/or use of information in this presentation.

This presentation is not an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell financial instruments. Investments in financial instruments are associated with risk, including the possibility that all or

part of invested funds may be lost. Historical returns are no guarantee of future returns.

DNB Bank ASA and/or other entities in the DNB Group or employees and/or representatives of the DNB Group may trade in or hold positions in the presented or related financial

instruments and may give financial advice or provide banking services linked to such financial instruments. Rules regarding confidentiality and other internal rules limit the exchange of

information between different units and group companies in the DNB group. The employees in DNB who prepared this presentation may thus be prevented from using, or be unaware of,

information held in other units/companies in the DNB Group that may be relevant to this presentation.

DNB Asset Management AS, a division within DNB Wealth Management, is an entity within the DNB Group registered in the Registry of Business Enterprises under Enterprise Number 880

109 162.

29

Disclaimer

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Global internet penetration still small

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Developed Developing

31

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global Population

Internet Population

Only 40% of the world population is online The growth comes from smartphones in

emerging markets Million users Million users

Source: ITU (International Telecommunication Union)

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Google - Well positioned within all mega trends

32

YouTube Google Maps Google Chrome/OS

Google mobile search Android Google TV

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eBay Leader in online payments

33

• Dominant position within online payments

• Scalable online shopping mall – no inventories

• Good management

• PayPal at 15x EBITDA (EBITDA CAGR of 20%)

• Marketplaces at 10x EBITDA (EBITDA CAGR 10%)

• = 30% upside to current share price

• Activist involvement

• Slowing growth within “Market places”

• Strong growth in ecommerce and online payments

Active PayPal users (mill) Number of payments (mill)

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Value

Creation

Valuation

Earnings rev/

momentum

Theme

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Playtech SaaS value case in eGaming

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• Turnkey software as a service product, covering the front-, middle- and back office requirements of eGaming

• #1 in mobile

• Online penetration less than 10%

• Physical gaming growing 4%, desktop 8%, mobile 30-40%

• 14x EV/EBIT for potentially decades of organic growth

• Positive earnings revisions, as regulation is increasingly seen as an opportunity, not a threat

• Secular shift from physical to online casinos (eGaming)

• Regulatory changes accelerating TAM growth

Value

Creation

Valuation

Earnings rev/

momentum

Theme

Value

Creation

Valuation

Theme

2010 – 2016 Annual Growth

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Expedia Duopolist in online travel booking

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• Transaction based, countercyclical model

• Essential for hotel- and airline inventory management

• Leading mobile platform

• Strong management team

• Expedia at 14x 2014 EV/EBIT vs. Priceline at 17x

• Priceline at 3x higher EBIT margin, but gap could narrow as more business shift to mobile, where Expedia are #1

• 2-3x upside potential

• Accelerating growth

• Winner in transition from offline to online booking

• “If there’s life, there’s travel”

Booking growth

Value

Creation

Valuation

Earnings rev/

momentum

Theme

Value

Creation

Valuation

Theme

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012 2013 2014

Priceline

Expedia