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A global long only equity TMT fund
January 2015
DNB Technology
Anders Tandberg-Johansen, Portfolio Manager
Bei diesem Dokument handelt es sich nicht um die
Vortragspräsentation. Bitte treten Sie mit uns in Kontakt,
falls Sie diese einzusehen wünschen. Herzlichen Dank.
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DNB Technology
• Long-only UCITS global equity fund which
invests in technology, media and telecom
sectors
• Strong and consistent performance record
• Dedicated and experienced investment
team
• Compliant with DNB Asset Managements
SRI policy
2
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Agenda
3
1 DNB Asset Management
3 Investment Process
2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record
4 Risk Management
5 Fund Facts
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DNB Asset Management
DNB is among the largest Asset Manager in the Nordic Region
• Specialist approach to investing
• 76 portfolio managers and analysts
• € 61 billion under management
• Offices in Oslo, Bergen, Stockholm, Luxembourg, and Hong Kong
• 100% owned by Oslo-listed DNB Group
The DNB Group
• DNB is Norway's largest financial services group and one of the largest in the Nordic region in
terms of market capitalization, represented in 21 countries worldwide
• The Group is among the world’s leading banks within shipping, energy and seafood
• The Group offers a full range of financial services, including loans, savings, advisory services,
insurance and pension products for retail and corporate customers and the public sector
4
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Agenda
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1 DNB Asset Management
3 Investment Process
2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record
4 Risk Management
5 Fund Facts
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Experienced Team
Anders Tandberg-Johansen – Head of Global Technology
Anders joined DNB Asset Management in 1998 as a portfolio manager being responsible for Norwegian
technology portfolios. Since 2002 he serves as Head of Global Technology Equities within the Global Equity team.
Between 1996 and 1998 Anders was a technology analyst with Enskilda Securities. He holds a BA in Finance from
the Norwegian School of Management (BI).
Sverre Bergland – Portfolio Manager, Software
Sverre joined DNB Asset Management in 2001 as a technology equity analyst. He started out his professional
career in 1995, working for ABG Securities as an IT analyst. Sverre holds a BA in Finance from the University of
San Francisco, USA.
Erling Thune – Portfolio Manager, Telecom & Media
Erling joined DNB Asset Management's global technology team in early 2008 where he is responsible for global
telecommunications companies and media. Erling started his career in 1993 as a financial journalist for the
Norwegian Financial Daily. Between 1996 and 2000 he was Senior Vice President and Investor Relations Officer at
Elkjøp ASA, Norway's leading retail company, before joining Telenor ASA – Norway's leading Telecom operator –
in 2000 where he held the position of the Head of Investor Relations. Erling is a graduate of the Norwegian
School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH).
6
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Among the best Global TMT fund last 5 years
7
17.6 % 17.5 % 17.5 % 17.2 % 17.1 % 16.8 % 16.8 % 16.5 % 16.3 % 16.2 %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Note: Returns as of December 2014, source morningstar.de out of 167 Global Technology funds. Index is "MSCI World TMT" (66% MSCI Global IT, 22% MSCI Global Telecom Services, 12% MSCI Global Media). Inception of fund is August 16th 2007. Historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.
Long only fund awarded best Global Technology Fund 5 year performance
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DNB Nordic Technology Massively beating peers over more than 10 years
8
Global TMT funds – last 10 years (annual) Acc. net return of 591 % since inception in 2001
Note: Inception of DNB Nordic Technology is August 8th 2001. Performance data as of December 31, 2014 (NOK). Peers comparison from Morningstar last 10 years as of December 2014. Historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.
17.9 %
10.4 % 10.4 % 10.1 % 9.7 % 9.2 %
8.4 % 7.9 % 7.7 % 7.6 %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
DNB Nordic Technology BM ABGTMT (PI) Linked
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Successful Absolute Return strategy
Period MSCI TMT Net return*
sep.07 +2.6% 3.0%
2008 -55.1% 21.3%
2009 +61.9% 22.7%
2010 +10.2% -1.6%
2011 +1.4% +10.2%
2012 +12.7% -10.9%
2013 +26.0% +13.2%
2014 +26.8% -0.7%
9 Source: Grapht is Morningstar Direct per 31/12/2014. Performance is net of fees for TMT with gross swap performance only for Global Hedge. Table shows annual Global Hedge performance untli inception of TMT from 2011 until september 2014. Historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
DNB TMT Absolute Return NOK ST1X MSCI World (NOK) OSE Global Hedge TMT
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DNB Technology - Largest Holdings
10
Stock Holding Over/underweight
Google 9.50 % 4.22%
APPLE 8.48 % -0.96 %
ORACLE 6.53 % 4.32 %
SAP 4.96 % 3.90 %
Samsung Electronics 4.37 % 4.37 %
EXPEDIA 4.00 % 4.00 %
CITRIX SYSTEMS 3.76 % 3.57 %
CISCO SYSTEMS 3.74 % 1.73 %
Playtech 3.15 % 3.15 %
Netgear 3.14% 3.15%
As of December 31. 2014
Largest Positions Weight MCAP
ORACLE CORP 6.66 % 197,480
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd GDR 6.64 % 178,232
APPLE 6.21 % 647,361
GOOGLE A 6.11 % 151,140
SAP STAMM 4.86 % 86,606
CISCO SYSTEMS 4.49 % 142,234
Playtech Plc 4.44 % 3,153
EBAY 3.91 % 69,722
Mellanox Technologies Ltd 3.59 % 1,933
Expedia Inc 3.54 % 9,710
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11
DNB Technology
Relative Performance YTD
Positive contributors Relative
Performance
IBM 0.88 %
QLogic Corp 0.81 %
Oracle Corp 0.72 %
Ubisoft Entertainment 0.69 %
Verizon Communications Inc 0.57 %
King Digital Entertainment Plc 0.56 %
TriQuint Semiconductor Inc 0.55 %
Softbank Corp 0.55 %
Lenovo Group Ltd 0.50 %
AT&T Inc 0.50 %
Negative contributors Relative
Performance
Millennial Media Inc -2.37 %
GameLoft SE -1.97 %
Oclaro Inc -0.89 %
Jds Uniphase Corp -0.73 %
Cyan Inc -0.72 %
Google Inc A-Shares -0.69 %
Juniper Networks Inc -0.67 %
Adva Optical Networking Se -0.61 %
Intel Corp -0.54 %
Facebook Inc -0.54 %
Pr December 31, 2014
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Cash adjusted PE and EPS growth – largest holdings
12
6.8
8.8 9.7
10.9 11.6
12.9
15.9 16.5
17.1 18.0
-7%
5%
8% 6%
9%
0%
20%
8%
17%
10%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2015 PE EPS Growth
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Tech stocks are not expensive
13
12.6 13.1 14.3
15.0 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 17.1 17.5
7% 7%
9% 9%
2%
7%
8%
11%
8% 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2015 PE EPS Growth
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Agenda
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1 DNB Asset Management
3 Investment Process
2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record
4 Risk Management
5 Fund Facts
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Four key elements of stock selection
15
Valuation Earnings rev/
momentum
Continously monitoring approx. 500 stocks
Value
Creation Themes
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Themes - Six Important Megatrends
Internet penetration will reach 100% Services moving to the cloud
Internet of things – big data
The battle for the TV screen Payments go mobile
Advertising goes online
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Global Population
Internet Population
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Google Strong positions and reasonable valuation
17
• Totally dominating search
• Strong and visionary management team
• Economies of scale – "The winner takes it all"
• Net cash adjusted P/E of 16 in 2015
• EPS growing by appr 20%
• Above 70% gross margin
• USD 45 billion in net cash
• Inflection point mobile search
• Undervalued other assets such as YouTube
• Winner in transition from Offline to online
• Well positioned in most TMT megatrends
Revenues (USD Bn) EPS (USD)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0
10
20
30
40
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Value
Creation
Valuation
Earnings rev/
momentum
Theme
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ORACLE/SAP Well positioned in the Cloud – low valuation
18
• Global domination in database and ERP
• Very profitable and huge R&D
• Successfully maneuvered technological shifts in the past
• Oracle at 2015 PER of 11x – ex cash
• SAP at 2015 PER of 16x – ex cash
• Improving trends in the cloud
• Continued FCF growth in the 5-10% range
• Cloud threat exaggerated
Reduce
Buy Buy
Reduce
Buy
Oracle
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
FCF/yield%
SAP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
FCF/yield%
Value
Creation
Valuation
Earnings rev/
momentum
Theme
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Netgear Well positioned - strong management - cheap
19
• Strong, commercial and hands on management
• EV/Sales: 0.6
• EV/EBIT: 6
• PE: 10
• Loss of large customer in 2013
• Will grow strongly on Wifi extenders
• Internet of things
• Increased IPTV-viewing
Reduce
Buy Buy
Reduce
Buy
• Extremely good at sourcing and managing retail channels
WiFi extender
Nighthawk WiFi router
Value
Creation
Valuation
Earnings rev/
momentum
Theme
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Samsung Quality company at a big discount
20
• Strong management
• Scale leader in handset and memory
• Uniquely cheap vs own industry and universe
• Estimates marginally slipping (like the industry), but minor compared to valuation
• Tailwinds from mobility growth and increased storage
Dominant in mobile memory Historical fwd P/E ex cash
51%
25%
22% 1%
Samsung Hynix Micron Other
Value
Creation
Valuation
Earnings rev/
momentum
Theme
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Agenda
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1 DNB Asset Management
3 Investment Process
2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record
4 Risk Management
5 Fund Facts
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Risk management
• Standard deviation combined with stress tests and common sense
• Low concentration of portfolio - 5/10/40 - rule apply
• Structured process for "Approved Counterparty List"
• Low exposure to counterparties (according to UCITS)
- Maximum 10 % exposure towards "large European Financial institutions"
- 5 % towards others
• Low credit risk in interest bearing instruments
• Robust infrastructure for risk management and control called Worldport
22
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Controlling Liquidity Risks
23 "Worldport" extracts are examples only
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Understanding Portfolio Sensitivities
• Risk system based on GRAM (Citi)
• Challenges the manager's fundamental bias
24
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Agenda
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1 DNB Asset Management
3 Investment Process
2 Portfolio Management Team & Track Record
4 Risk Management
5 Fund Facts
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DNB Technology - Fund Profile
Fund managers: Anders Tandberg-Johansen, Sverre Bergland, Erling Thune
Strategy: Long only equity fund
Fund type UCITS: FCP - Long only equity fund
Benchmark: "MSCI World TMT" (66% MSCI Global IT, 22% MSCI Global
Telecom Services, 12% MSCI Global Media)
Risk target: 6-10% TE
Number of holdings: 30-60
Country range: Flexible
Inception date: August 16, 2007
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DNB Technology - Terms
27
ISIN: LU0302296495
Liquidity: Daily
Management fee: 1.5% p.a.
Performance fee: 20% (based on accumulated relative performance, no reset)
Front end fee: Up to 5%
Currency: EUR
Minimum investment: EUR 1000
Domiciled: Luxembourg
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As portfolio managers our ambitions are clear
28
Identify winners and losers in changing landscape
Creating uncorrelated absolute returns for investors
Always keeping tight risk management
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Oslo
DNB Asset Management AS
Dronning Eufemias gate 30
N-0021 Oslo, Norway
Stockholm
DNB Asset Management AB
Kungsgatan 18
SE-105 88 Stockholm, Sweden
Luxembourg
DNB Asset Management S.A.
13, rue Goethe
L-1637 Luxembourg
Hong Kong
DNB Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.
99 Queen's Road Central
3305-3306, The Center, Hong Kong
The presentation has been prepared in accordance with DNB Asset Management’s General Business Terms. The presentation was prepared for internal use as information for our clients and
is not intended for public use or distribution. The information contained herein may not be reproduced without DNB Asset Management’s prior consent.
This presentation was prepared on the basis of publicly available information. DNB Asset Management does not warrant that the information in the presentation is exact, correct or
complete. The opinions expressed herein reflect the views of DNB Asset Management at the time. DNB Asset Management reserves the right to change its opinion without notice. Any
written material distributed must be seen in the context of the oral presentation. DNB Asset Management will not accept responsibility for direct or indirect losses incurred as a result of the
interpretation and/or use of information in this presentation.
This presentation is not an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell financial instruments. Investments in financial instruments are associated with risk, including the possibility that all or
part of invested funds may be lost. Historical returns are no guarantee of future returns.
DNB Bank ASA and/or other entities in the DNB Group or employees and/or representatives of the DNB Group may trade in or hold positions in the presented or related financial
instruments and may give financial advice or provide banking services linked to such financial instruments. Rules regarding confidentiality and other internal rules limit the exchange of
information between different units and group companies in the DNB group. The employees in DNB who prepared this presentation may thus be prevented from using, or be unaware of,
information held in other units/companies in the DNB Group that may be relevant to this presentation.
DNB Asset Management AS, a division within DNB Wealth Management, is an entity within the DNB Group registered in the Registry of Business Enterprises under Enterprise Number 880
109 162.
29
Disclaimer
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Global internet penetration still small
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Developed Developing
31
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Global Population
Internet Population
Only 40% of the world population is online The growth comes from smartphones in
emerging markets Million users Million users
Source: ITU (International Telecommunication Union)
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Google - Well positioned within all mega trends
32
YouTube Google Maps Google Chrome/OS
Google mobile search Android Google TV
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eBay Leader in online payments
33
• Dominant position within online payments
• Scalable online shopping mall – no inventories
• Good management
• PayPal at 15x EBITDA (EBITDA CAGR of 20%)
• Marketplaces at 10x EBITDA (EBITDA CAGR 10%)
• = 30% upside to current share price
• Activist involvement
• Slowing growth within “Market places”
• Strong growth in ecommerce and online payments
Active PayPal users (mill) Number of payments (mill)
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Value
Creation
Valuation
Earnings rev/
momentum
Theme
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Playtech SaaS value case in eGaming
34
• Turnkey software as a service product, covering the front-, middle- and back office requirements of eGaming
• #1 in mobile
• Online penetration less than 10%
• Physical gaming growing 4%, desktop 8%, mobile 30-40%
• 14x EV/EBIT for potentially decades of organic growth
• Positive earnings revisions, as regulation is increasingly seen as an opportunity, not a threat
• Secular shift from physical to online casinos (eGaming)
• Regulatory changes accelerating TAM growth
Value
Creation
Valuation
Earnings rev/
momentum
Theme
Value
Creation
Valuation
Theme
2010 – 2016 Annual Growth
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Expedia Duopolist in online travel booking
35
• Transaction based, countercyclical model
• Essential for hotel- and airline inventory management
• Leading mobile platform
• Strong management team
• Expedia at 14x 2014 EV/EBIT vs. Priceline at 17x
• Priceline at 3x higher EBIT margin, but gap could narrow as more business shift to mobile, where Expedia are #1
• 2-3x upside potential
• Accelerating growth
• Winner in transition from offline to online booking
• “If there’s life, there’s travel”
Booking growth
Value
Creation
Valuation
Earnings rev/
momentum
Theme
Value
Creation
Valuation
Theme
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014
Priceline
Expedia