CONFERENCE LOCATION

10TH RGSDOCTORALCONFERENCE

IN

ECONOMICS

PRO GRAM

TU DORTMUND UNIVERSITY

MARCH 1-2, 2017

P

P

PP

P

P

P

P

PP

P

P

P

P

P

P

4a

ISAS

Fraunhofer-Institut für Software- und Systemtechnik ISST

Fraunhofer-Institut für Materialfluss und Logistik

Mensa

Max-Planck- Institut für molekulare Physiologie

Technologie-zentrum

F&E Gesellschaft

Vog

elpo

thsw

eg

Baroper Stra

ße (BS)

August-Schmidt-

Wilhelm-Dilthey-Stra

ße (WD)

Leon

hard

-Eul

er-S

traß

e

Mar

tin-

Schm

eiße

r W

eg

Hau

ert

Ostenbergstr

Am

Gar

denk

amp

Hugo-Heimsath-Str.

Jose

ph-v

on-F

raun

hofe

r St

raße

B1

Maria-Goeppert-Mayer-Straße

Otto-Hahn-Straße

Universitätsstraße

Am Paß

Frie

dric

h-W

öhle

r-W

eg

Vogelpothsweg

Bar

ope r

Str

a ße

Emil-Figge-Straße

H

H

H

H

H

H H

H

H

Meitnerweg

Universität

Emil-Figge-Str.

H-Bahn Campus Süd

Eichlinghofen Am Gardenkamp

H-BahnEichlinghofen

Groß Barop

Technologie-zentrum

Joseph-von- Fraunhofer Straße

H Meitnerweg/Wohnanlage

H

Martin-Schmeißer-Weg

H

Am Hedreisch

Außensportanlagen

NorthCampus

SouthCampus

nrwision

Straße

HH H

S

H

InternationalesBegegnungszentrum (IBZ)

Seminarraum-gebäude (SRG)

Martin-Schmeißer-

Platz

Technologiez.

Freigelände MB

ANDROID 4.X https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=de.tudortmund.app

IOS https://itunes.apple.com/ us/app/tu-dortmund/id987953936

TU Dortmund als APP mit Campusnavi

Die TU Dortmund beiGoogle-Maps

Internationalses Begegnungszentrum (IBZ) Emil-Figge-Str. 59, 44227 Dortmund

Veranstaltungssaal, Seminarraum 1, 2/3

Seminarraumgebäude (SRG) Friedrich-Wöhler-Weg 6, 44227 Dortmund

Room SRG 1.024

Mensa

Vogelpothsweg 85, 44227 Dortmund

MAP OF TU DORTMUND

10TH DOCTORAL

CONFERENCE IN ECONOMICS

RISING TO EUROPE’S CHALLENGES: THE ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

4

5

WELCOME 6 – 7

RGS ECON 9 – 11

ORGANIZERS & COMMITTEES 13 – 15

GENERAL INFORMATION 17 – 19

SPECIAL EVENTS AND KEYNOTE SPEECHES 21 – 25

CONFERENCE PROGRAM 27 – 29

ABSTRACTS 31 – 84

LIST OF PRESENTERS 87– 89

NOTES 90-91

CONTENT

6

DEAR PARTICI-PANTS,

It is our pleasure to welcome you to the decennial anniversary “10th RGS Doctoral Conference in Eco-nomics: Rising to Europe’s Challenges: The Econom-ic Perspective” in Dortmund. We are honoured that you are joining us - to present your work and discuss your research with other doctoral students.

7

Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt, PhD,

Director RGS Econ

Prof. Dr. Ludger Linnemann,

Director RGS Econ

The conference is organized annually by the Ruhr Graduate School in Economics (RGS Econ), rotating locations between those of RGS Econ’s initiators; Bochum, Duisburg, Dortmund, and Essen. It serves as a plat-form for young talented economists – just like you – to engage in fruitful discussions, to learn and share knowledge, to build networks, and, ideally, to initiate joint research projects. RGS Econ’s faculty members, who will chair the sessions, are also more than happy to discuss research ideas and give comments. Engage!

We are excited about the high-quality contributions to this year’s con-ference program and the pertinent keynotes by our prominent guests, Dr. Werner Hoyer (President of the European Investment Bank), Dr. Eckart Windhagen (McKinsey & Company), and Prof. Paul De Grauwe (London School of Economics). The conference is co-funded by the Eu-ropean Union, supporting us in raising awareness among early-career researchers and prospective leaders for the economic challenges facing Europe.

We hope – especially in these troubling times – that the conference per-sistently contributes to the advancement of economic research and re-search-based policy advice, through dialogue and mutual understanding, by bringing together doctoral students from across Europe and the world.

We have striven to create the best circumstances for a highly productive time here in Dortmund. Comments and suggestions for improvement are highly welcome.

Kind regards,

8

9

10

THE CONFERENCE IS CO-FUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION.

FINANCIAL SUPPORT BY THE MERCATOR FOUNDATION IS

GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGED

RGS ECON IS, AMONG OTHERS, PROUDLY SPONSORED BY

11

The Ruhr Graduate School in Economics (RGS Econ) provides internationally competitive research-oriented doctoral training in eco-nomics in the form of a 3-year structured program. It combines and builds on exper-tise of the three economics departments of the “University Alliance Ruhr”, TU Dortmund University, University of Duis-burg-Essen, and Ruhr-University Bochum, as well as one of Ger-many’s leading economic research institutes, RWI – Leibniz-In-stitute for Economic Research.

RGS Econ funds around eight excellent entering doctoral stu-dents per year with a three-year scholarship. Advanced course-work, appropriate guidance, a cooperative learning environment, and an extensive research network and infrastructure are geared to support our students in conducting first-rate research and our graduates in obtaining excellent positions in academia, in research and policy institutions, and in the private sector.

The program covers all major areas of economics, from theory to em-pirical validation, and from policy design to its evaluation. Faculty mem-bers of the RGS Econ group themselves into three major research clusters listed below. Interactions and cooperation within and across clusters are intense; doctoral students are invited to contribute to these exchanges by following their own interests.

CLUSTER 1: Applied Microeconometrics, Labour, Population, and Health Economics

CLUSTER 2: Macroeconomics, Monetary and International Economics, Financial Markets, Econometrics

CLUSTER 3: Microeconomics, Game Theory, Mechanism Design, Public Finance

12

13

ORGANIZERSAND

COMMITTEES

14

This event would not have been possible without the time

and effort of:

SCIENTIFIC BOARDProf. Dr. Erwin Amann (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Thomas Bauer (Ruhr University Bochum & RWI)

Prof. Dr. Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Jeanette Brosig-Koch (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Volker Clausen (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Manuel Frondel (Ruhr University Bochum & RWI)

Prof. Dr. Vasyl Golosnoy (Ruhr University Bochum)

Prof. Dr. Christoph Hanck (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Philip Jung (TU Dortmund University)

Prof. Martin Karlsson, PhD (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Kiesel (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Eugen Kovac (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer (TU Dortmund University)

Prof. Dr. Kornelius Kraft (TU Dortmund University)

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Leininger (TU Dortmund University)

Prof. Dr. Ludger Linnemann (TU Dortmund University)

Prof. Dr. Peter N. Posch (TU Dortmund University)

Prof. Dr. Nadine Riedel (Ruhr University Bochum)

Prof. Dr. Julio R. Robledo (Ruhr University Bochum)

Prof. Dr. Michael Roos (Ruhr University Bochum)

Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt (Ruhr University Bochum & RWI)

Prof. Dr. Reinhold Schnabel (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Tobias Seidel (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Prof. Dr. Martin Wagner (TU Dortmund University)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Daniel Avdic (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Timo Baas (University of Duisburg-Essen)

15

Dr. Joscha Beckmann (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Dr. Robert Czudaj (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Dr. Yannick Hoga (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Nadja Kairies-Schwarz (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Sanne Kruse-Becher (Ruhr University Bochum)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Lars Metzger, (TU Dortmund University)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Marie Paul (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Michael Stein (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Roland Winkler (TU Dortmund University)

Jun.-Prof. Lilia Zhurakhovska (University of Duisburg-Essen)

CONFERENCE ORGANIZATIONProf. Dr. Ludger Linnemann (TU Dortmund University)

Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt (Ruhr University Bochum & RWI)

Helge Braun, PhD (RGS Econ)

Jenny Neumann (RGS Econ & RWI)

GRAPHICS & DESIGNDaniela Schwindt (RWI)

ORGANIZERSAND

COMMITTEES

16

17

GENE RAL

MATION

IN FOR

18

GENERALINFORMATION

19

CONFERENCE VENUETU Dortmund University IBZ (Internationales Begegnungszentrum) Emil-Figge-Str. 59 44221 Dortmund

HOW TO GET TO THE CONFERENCE?The closest airport is Düsseldorf International (DUS), where you can take the train S1 to TU Dortmund University. From the train station it is a 5-10 minute walk to the IBZ. A map of the conference venue is provided on the inside cover of this booklet.

REGISTRATION AND INFORMATION DESKThe registration and information desk for the conference is located in the foyer of the IBZ (Internationales Begegnungszentrum).

On Wednesday, March 1, it is staffed from 8:00 – 20:00.

On Thursday, March 2, it is staffed from 8:00 – 17:00.

CANTEEN (MENSA)In order to receive the reduced price for students at the university can-teen (mensa), conference attendees will need to show their student ID (from their home university) to the cashier. The canteen (mensa) is locat-ed near the conference location at IBZ and can be reached in less than five minutes

SMOKING POLICYSmoking is strictly prohibited inside all university buildings. Smoking is only permitted outside the buildings.

INTERNET ACCESSFree wireless internet access will be available throughout the conference building. The name and access code of the wireless network will be avail-able at the information desk.

CONTACT IN CASE OF URGENT MATTERSHelge Braun helge.braun@rgs-econ.de +49 (0)1 76 32 92 88 40

20

SPECIAL EVENTS

21

KEYNOTE SPEECHES

22

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 28TH, 19:00

GET-TOGETHER

For those arriving early, we will meet for a get-together at a local brew-ery. We hope that you can join us there for a taste of traditional pub grub and the local beer.

WENKERS am MarktBetenstr. 144137 Dortmund

www.wenkers.de

23

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 1ST, 9:00 – 9:30

OPENING REMARKS AND “ECONOMIC CHALLENGES FACING EUROPE”

Prof. Wim Köster, RWI – Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research

Prof. Ludger Linnemann, TU Dortmund University

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 1ST, 17:45 – 22:00

The following two keynotes will be preceded by a greeting by Prof. Barbara Welzel, Pro-Vice-Chancellor, TU Dortmund University at 17:45.

THE EU BANK – A STRONG PARTNER FOR GROWTH, CONVERGENCE AND COHESION IN EUROPE

Keynote speech by Dr. Werner Hoyer18:00-19:00

There will be a break with snacks and drinks after the keynote speech.

About the Speaker Dr. Werner Hoyer is currently President of the Euro-pean Investment Bank of the European Union. The bank provides finance and expertise for sound and sustainable investment projects which con-tribute to furthering EU policy objectives.

Dr. Hoyer was previously Minister of State (Deputy Foreign Minister) at the German Foreign Office, responsible for Political and Security Affairs, European Affairs, United Nations and Arms Control and Commissioner for Franco-German Cooperation. He was a Member of the German Bundestag where he held several positions; first as Whip and Security Policy Spokes-man of the FDP (Free Democratic Party) Parliamentary Group, Deputy Chairman of the German-American Parliamentary Friendship Group and Secretary General of the FDP.

Dr. Hoyer has a PhD in Economics from the University of Cologne. He start-ed his career as a senior research assistant at the Cologne University and soon became an associate lecturer in international economic relations.

24

THE NEXT CENTURY OF PROSPERITY: ESCAPING SECULAR STAGNATION

Keynote speech by Dr. Eckart Windhagen19:00-20:00

About the Speaker Dr. Eckart Windhagen is a Senior Partner in McKinsey & Company s Frankfurt Office. He is a leader in the EMEA Financial Institu-tions and the Public Sector Practices. He serves a broad range of leading institutions in Germany and Europe with a focus on organizational and strategic themes. Additionally, Dr. Windhagen is a member of McKinsey’s Advanced Analytics board and the McKinsey Global Institute. Recent re-search with the MGI covers European topics as well as the refugee crisis.

Dr. Windhagen studied law at the Universities of Bonn and Munich and holds a barrister as well as a Ph.D. in European Competition Law.

CONFERENCE DINNER20:00-22:00

The Keynotes will be followed by a buffet-style conference dinner start-ing at 20:00, in the foyer of the IBZ and provided with the kind support of McKinsey & Company.

THURSDAY, MARCH 2ND, 14:00 – 15:45

THE FUTURE OF THE EURO

Keynote speech by Prof. Paul De Grauwe14:00-15:00

About the Speaker Prof. Paul De Grauwe is the John Paulson Chair in Eu-ropean Political Economy at the London School of Economics (LSE). He is also director of the money, macro and international finance research net-work of CESifo, University of Munich. He is a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels and the Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. He was previously Professor of International Econom-ics at the University of Leuven and a member of the Belgian parliament.

25

The conference ends March 2nd, 16:00.

IMPORTANT

On March 2nd, starting at 15:45, we will offer an early dinner until 17:00 in the foyer of the IBZ, also for take-out.

For speakers from outside of Germany: Please do not forget to fill out a travel cost reimbursement form at the information desk.

His research interests are international monetary relations, monetary in-tegration, theory and empirical analysis of the foreign-exchange markets, and open-economy macroeconomics. His published books include “The Economics of Monetary Union”, “International Money. Post-war Trends and Theories”, and “Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics”.

Prof. De Grauwe obtained his PhD in Economics from the Johns Hopkins University and is honorary doctor of the University of Sankt Gallen (Swit-zerland), of the University of Turku (Finland), the University of Genoa, the University of Valencia and Maastricht University.

BEST PAPER AWARD AND CLOSING REMARKS

Prof. Christoph Schmidt, RWI – Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research and Ruhr-University Bochum

15:15-15:45

26

27

CONFERENCEPROGRAM

28

FEBRUARY 28, TUESDAY

19:00 Get-together WENKERS am MarktBetenstr. 144137 Dortmund

MACRH 1, WEDNESDAY

8:30 – 9:00 Registration Foyer, IBZ

9:00-9:30 Opening Remarks, „Economic Challenges Facing Europe“Prof. Ludger Linnemann and Prof. Wim Kösters

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZ

9:45 – 11:15 Monetary PolicyFirm InnovationHealth EconomicsFinancial Markets

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZSeminarraum 2/3, IBZSRG 1.024Seminarraum 1, IBZ

11:15 – 11:30 Coffee Break Foyer, IBZ

11:30 – 13:00 Applied EconometricsLabor EconomicsEurope‘s Challenges (Health Economics)Econometrics of Financial Markets

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZSeminarraum 2/3, IBZSRG 1.024Seminarraum 1, IBZ

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch Mensa

14:00 – 15:30 International MacroeconomicsExperimental EconomicsEconomic Development

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZSeminarraum 2/3, IBZSRG 1.024

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee Break Foyer, IBZ

16:00 – 17:30 Europe‘s Challenges (Labor Markets)Europe‘s Challenges (Migration and Integration)Europe‘s Challenges (Sovereign Debt)Collective Decision Making

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZSeminarraum 2/3, IBZSRG 1.024Seminarraum 1, IBZ

CONFERENCE PROGRAM

29

MACRH 1, WEDNESDAY ... CONTINUED

17:45 - 18:00 Greeting Pro-Vice-Chancellor Prof. Barbara Welzel Veranstaltungssaal, IBZ

18:00 – 19:00 Keynote Speech Dr. Werner Hoyer“The EU Bank – a Strong Partner for Growth, Convergence and Cohesion in Europe”

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZ

19:00-20:00 Keynote Speech Dr. Eckart Windhagen„The Next Century of Prosperity: Escaping Secular Stagnation“

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZ

20:00 – 22:00 Conference Dinner, Foyer, IBZ

MARCH 2, THURSDAY

8:30 – 10:00 Applied Industrial OrganizationEconomics of EducationMacroeconomics I

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZSeminarraum 2/3, IBZSRG 1.024

10:00 – 11:30 Behavioral EconomicsInternational EconomicsMacroeconomics II

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZSeminarraum 2/3, IBZSRG 1.024

11:30 – 12:15 Lunch Mensa

12:15 – 13:45 Europe‘s Challenges (Applied Econometrics)Europe‘s Challenges (Monetary Policy and Expectations)Europe‘s Challenges (Public Economics)Europe‘s Challenges (Regional Variation and Migration)

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZSeminarraum 2/3, IBZSRG 1.024Seminarraum 1, IBZ

14:00-15:00 Keynote Speech Prof. Paul De Grauwe„The Future of the Euro“

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZ

15:00 – 15:15 Coffee Break Foyer, IBZ

15:15 - 15:45 Best Paper Award and Closing RemarksProf. Christoph Schmidt

Veranstaltungssaal, IBZ

15:45 – 17:00 Early Dinner, also take-out, Foyer, IBZ

30

31

ABSTRACTS

32

WEDNESDAY MARCH 1, 2017

33

SESSION 1

MONETARY POLICY

9:45 – 11:15 VERANSTALTUNGSSAAL (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. LUDGER LINNEMANN

1 INSIDE MONEY, INVESTMENT, AND UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

Lukas Altermatt (University of Basel, Switzerland)

In this paper I build a new monetarist model that includes inside money and investment to analyze why an economy can fall into a liquidity trap, and what the effects of unconventional monetary policy meas-ures like helicopter money and negative interest rates are under these circumstances. I find that the liquidity trap can be caused by a scarcity of safe assets, by insufficient investment opportunities, by too much supply of bank deposits or by a combination of any of these reasons. I also find that unconventional monetary policies can get an economy out of a liquidity trap, but at a welfare cost, while issuing more govern-ment debt can do the same and also improve welfare.

2 TRANSACTION COST HETEROGENEITY IN THE INTERBANK MARKET AND MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION UNDER ALTERNATIVE INTEREST CORRIDOR SYSTEMS

Thomas Link (HHU Düsseldorf, Germany) and Ulrike Neyer

This theoretical exercise proposes rules for the control of interbank rate volatility under interest corridor systems if volatility stems from interbank market frictions - a feature of “post-crisis” interbank mar-kets. Volatility arises from frictions if there is bank heterogeneity in two dimensions: cross-section and time, that is, if the degree to which frictions alter the relative attractiveness of outside options for banks to using the interbank market is bank-specific and time-varying. Vola-tility control then requires the central bank to create relatively unat-

34

tractive outside options for friction-affected banks - which is the inver-sion of a traditional principle. Under a “floor” or “ceiling operating system” (asymmetric scheme) this is achieved by implementing a rel-atively wide interest corridor - in contrast to conventional wisdom. Under a “standard corridor system” (symmetric scheme) the control of volatility stemming from frictions always requires a switch to an asymmetric corridor scheme and never can be achieved by corri-dor-width adjustments.

3 QUANTITATIVE EASING IN THE EURO AREA – AN EVENT STUDY APPROACH

Florian Urbschat (LMU Munich, Germany) and Sebastian Watzka

We examine the effects of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) grad-ually introduced by the European Central Bank from September 2014 onwards. Echoing the most direct response, we study the short-term reaction of financial markets after APP press releases by looking at the development of bond yields and spreads around these releases. More precisely, we try to quantify the portfolio rebalance channel by measuring the cumulative decrease in the conditional Bond-OIS spreads resulting from APP press releases and running event regres-sions for several Euro Area countries. We find that the effects in yield and spread reduction were most pronounced for the announcement on the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) but declined after-wards for every additional announcement. Possible explanations for this are the declining degree to which the ECB surprised markets and the increasingly burdensome institutional set-up of the APP.

35

SESSION 2

FIRM INNOVATION

9:45 – 11:15SEMINARRAUM 2/3 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. ERWIN AMANN

1 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMPETITION AND INNOVATION: HOW IMPORTANT ARE FIRMS FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS?

Georgios Petropoulos (Toulouse School of Economics, France)

This paper studies the relationship between product market compe-tition and innovation. It illustrates that apart from the well-studied impact of product market competition on the incentives of firms to innovate, it also affects their ability to have access to the necessary funds in order to innovate. Due to the fact that innovation projects are by definition risky and external financing subject to moral haz-ard concerns, lenders may be reluctant to finance projects in which the involved firms are not considered credible borrowers. I develop a step-by-step innovation model and show how product market compe-tition may restrict the ability of firms to be credible borrowers. This effect can become the main driving force for R&D activities if firms are financial constrained. The relationship between competition and innovation depends on the intensity of financial constraints. For inter-mediate intensity the relationship is inverted-U shaped but the peak of the curve moves to lower levels of competition as financial constraints become more intense. If the intensity is high, then, the impact of com-petition to the ability of firms to finance their investments dominates and the relationship is monotonously negative. Moreover, the pres-ence of financial constraints can increase investment in innovation in industries where firms have similar production technologies and the product market competition is low. Proposed market reforms that tar-get to increase competition should be accompanied with other neces-sary policy initiatives such as appropriate credit reforms and well tar-geted industrial policies that secure the access of firms to sufficient funds for their R&D investments.

36

2 R&D SPILLOVERS IN VERTICAL TRADING CHAINS

Christina Pötzsch (University of Oldenburg, Germany)

I investigate R&D spillovers through trade in intermediates by distin-guishing its value-added components. The distinction acknowledges that intermediates are processed by various countries and industries. I distinguish between value-added (VA) and vertical specialization (VS) trade, which isolate supplying industries’ internal and external val-ue-added, respectively. Applying industry data for 21 OECD countries, I find that R&D spillovers through VA trade and VS trade differ. VA trade channels positive spillovers both to supplying and using industries. VS trade channels positive spillovers to using, but negative spillovers to supplying industries. These findings identify R&D spillover mecha-nisms that involve the sequential production of intermediates.

3 THE SELECTION OF PATENTS FOR LITIGATION

Stefan Sorg (LMU Munich, Germany)

By fitting a structural theoretical model to aggregate data on patent litigation in Europe, this paper provides quantitative predictions of various characteristics of the patent system, many of which are cru-cial for welfare evaluations and policy recommendations, yet elusive to direct observation. Based on the work by Priest and Klein (1984), I develop a diverging expectations model for the selection of patents for litigation. Given that only slightly above 1% of all patents become subject of a legal dispute, selection effects are potentially strong, requiring a careful representation of the litigants’ interests as an inte-gral part of the model. By fitting the model to observable features of the European patent system, predictions of unobservable character-istics become accessible. I estimate the share of latently invalid pat-ents in the patent population to be below 30%, a substantially smaller value than the 80% share reported in a recent study extrapolating the share of invalidity judgments in annulment proceedings based on expert interviews (Henkel and Zischka, 2015). Since the explicit mod-eling of the selection mechanics allows for a deeper understanding and a more accurate and objective estimate than previous attempts, the findings of this study might contribute to a more substantiated assessment of the efficiency and hence the welfare effects of the pat-ent system as a whole.

37

SESSION 3

HEALTH ECONOMICS

9:45 – 11:15SRG 1.024 CHAIR: JPROF. DR. NADJA KAIRIES-SCHWARZ

1 FORWARD-LOOKING BEHAVIOR: DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN BIOLOGICAL AND BEHAVIORAL FERTILITY EFFECTS OF THE SPANISH FLU

Daniel Avdic and Mryna Ivets (University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany)

In this paper we are investigating a diffusion pattern of the Spanish flu across Sweden and using it as an instrument for the variation in morbidity and mortality rates across the districts and then exploring the short- and long-term effects of the flu on subsequent fertility and other long-term outcomes. In particular, we are using the fact that port-towns and railways are the most likely mechanism for the spread of the flu around Sweden. In this paper we are using geographical geocoding software to calculate the distance from the epicenter of point of entrance of the disease as an instrument of exposure to the flu in order to avoid endogeneity problems in variation in population health, difference in access and utilization of health care systems, and the simultaneity effect. By trying to gain an insight into these pat-terns we increase our understanding on how future pandemics might spread. This knowledge can help us to develop effective strategies for prevention and control of future epidemics.

38

2 PERCEIVED QUALITY AND CHOICE OF HEALTH CARE PROVIDER: ANALYZING THE DETERMINANTS OF CHOICE OF MATERNITY CLINICS FOR PREGNANT WOMEN

Daniel Avdic, Ieva Sriubaite (University of Duisburg-Essen, Germa-ny), Giuseppe Moscelli and Tugba Büyükdurmus

This paper studies patients’ responsiveness to quality information of health care providers in Germany using data on publicly available quality reports which hospitals are required to report biyearly since 2006. We link the quality information to rich administrative hospital records on patients, treatments and hospital characteristics to empir-ically study how the choices of maternity clinics made by pregnant women respond to quality information, measured as willingness to travel further to hospitals with higher ratings. We extend the analy-sis by exploiting a large survey based on patients’ satisfaction with the hospital to study whether the type of quality information mat-ters for individuals’ responsiveness. Our results show that individu-als, depending on quality indicator, are willing to travel between 0.05–2.74 kilometers further to increase the quality of care by one standard deviation. We also find that patients are generally more responsive to subjective quality measures.

3 AN INVESTIGATION OF HEALTH, MORTALITY AND SOCIAL CLASS USING HISTORICAL CLINICAL RECORDS

Nadine Geiger and Sebastian Wichert (LMU Munich, Germany)

While World War II (WWII) is often employed as natural experiment to identify long-term effects of adverse early-life and prenatal con-ditions, little is known about the short-term effects. We estimate the short term impact of the onset of WWII on newborn health using a unique dataset of historical birth records. Furthermore we investigate the heterogeneity of this effect with respect to health at birth and for different social groups. Our data include detailed information on all births and miscarriages, which took place in Munich’s largest birth hospital between December 1937 and October 1941. While we do not find any effects on birth weight, perinatal mortality increases. The mortality effect is driven by live births and strongest for very low birth weight infants. Maternal stress and a decline in quality of medical care are the most likely mechanisms for our findings.

39

SESSION 4

FINANCIAL MARKETS

9:45 – 11:15SEMINARRAUM 1 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. PETER POSCH

1 THE IMPORTANCE OF TIMING ATTITUDES IN CONSUMPTION-BASED ASSET PRICING MODELS

Martin M. Andreasen and Kasper Jørgensen (Aarhus University, Denmark)

This paper introduces a new utility kernel for Epstein-Zin-Weil prefer-ences to obtain greater flexibility in setting the intertemporal elastic-ity of substitution, the relative risk aversion (RRA), and the timing atti-tude compared to their standard implementation. We show that these new preferences resolve a puzzle in the long-run risk model, where consumption growth is too strongly correlated with the price-dividend ratio and the risk-free rate. The proposed preferences also resolve the puzzlingly high RRA in DSGE models, by enabling an otherwise stand-ard New Keynesian model to match the equity premium and the bond premium with a low RRA of 5.

2 CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR GOVERNMENT BONDS - IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY

Ulrike Neyer and André Sterzel (HHU Düsseldorf, Germany)

Banks hold relatively large amounts of government bonds. Large sov-ereign exposures reinforce possible financial contagion effects from sovereigns to banks and are a risk for financial stability. Using a theo-retical model, we find that the introduction of capital requirements for government bonds induce banks to decrease their investment in gov-ernment bonds and to increase their investment in high yield assets. This investment shift and a higher amount of capital imply that banks’ balance sheets become more resilient against sovereign debt crises. However, the extent of this effect depends on the type of the intro-duced capital regulation. Furthermore, we emphasize the role of the central bank in this context.

40

3 CDS CENTRAL COUNTERPARTY CLEARING LIQUIDATION: ROAD TO RECOVERY OR INVITATION TO PREDATION?

Magdalena Tywoniuk (University of Geneva, Switzerland)

This paper presents a liquidation and recovery model for systemically important Credit Default Swap CCPs, which addresses the threat of failure of global CCPs. Through the default of a large dealer mem-ber and subsequent liquidation of its positions by the CCP, the model illustrates the unique way that covariance, predation and price feed-back serve to amplify and speed up fire-sale contagion. This allows it to rapidly create illiquidity and insolvency among all dealers, even before the liquidation (and predation) period is over. The CCP, con-strained to a commonly-known liquidation period, inadvertently incen-tivises predatory behaviour. By analysing the exchange of variation margin, guarantee fund structure and covariance between assets, the mechanisms which can amplify and destabilise the CCP are isolated, as well as, the method by which the CCP can dis-incentive this preda-tion. It is found that a liquidation is not the value maximising method by the CCP should offload defaulted positions. A novel feature allows a systemically important CCP to identify the guarantee fund struc-ture which increases the probability of recovery and a realistic, effi-cient mechanism to dis-incentivise predation through predators’ own initial margin contribution. This framework analyses how predation and price impact amplify liquidations into fire-sales and identifies the incentives and tools available to the CCP to prevent, or mitigate, this fire-sale contagion.

41

SESSION 5

APPLIED ECONOMETRICS

11:30 - 13:00VERANSTALTUNGSSAAL (IBZ)CHAIR: DR. YANNICK HOGA

1 RELIGION, DEPOSIT INSURANCE, AND DEPOSIT MARKET OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM ISLAMIC BANKS

Zeki Kocaata (University of Bonn, Germany)

Using difference-in-differences and triple-differences methodologies, this paper investigates the effects of religiously compliant deposit insurance schemes on deposit supply in six dual banking systems. First, I find that Islamic banks’ depositors increase their deposit supply after the announcement of a separate Islamic deposit insurance fund. Second, former market discipline vanishes after this announcement. I attribute these findings to the fact that a separate Islamic deposit insurance fund ensures a radical departure from conventional bank-ing, signaling a more “Shariah” compliant Islamic banking system, for which Islamic banks’ depositors ultimately reward. These results demonstrate the trade-off between availability of funds (deposit sup-ply) and the presence of market discipline for the design of deposit insurance schemes in banking sectors where religious sentiments matter.

2 THE HOST WITH THE MOST? THE EFFECTS OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES ON HAPPINESS

Paul Dolan, Georgios Kavetsos, Christian Krekel (Paris School of Economics, France), Dimitris Mavridis, Robert Metcalfe, Claudia Senik, Stefan Szymanski and Nicolas R. Ziebarth

We show that hosting the Olympic Games in 2012 had a positive impact on the life satisfaction and happiness of Londoners during the Games, compared to residents of Paris and Berlin. The magnitude of the effects is equivalent to moving from the bottom to the fourth income decile. But they do not last very long: the effects are gone

42

within a year. These conclusions are based on a difference-in-differ-ences design and a novel panel survey of 26,000 individuals who were interviewed during the summers of 2011, 2012, and 2013, i.e. before, during, and after the event. The results are robust to selection into the survey and to the number of medals won. They also withstand a series of placebo tests, including placebo outcomes and time periods.

3 PEER EFFECTS AND RESEARCH SPECIALIZATION WITHIN ECONOMICS DEPARTMENTS: THE DEATH OF LOCATION?

Lukas Kuld (Trinity College Dublin, Ireland)

While recent research has found no strong overall peer effects within university departments, this paper shows a clear link between the suc-cess of individual research articles and local colleagues when their research is directly related. Using data from the CVs of around 1,000 academic economists, I compare the roles of department colleagues and former co-authors and their impact on citations. Articles in top 25 journals that draw on research of local colleagues receive on average between 15 and 30 percent more citations than comparable work. Con-versely, coauthors are primarily correlated with low-profile journals and arguably reflect the authors’ field-specific standing.

43

SESSION 6

LABOR ECONOMICS

11:30 - 13:00SEMINARRAUM 2/3 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. THOMAS K. BAUER

1 THE EFFECTS OF AFTER-SCHOOL PROGRAMS ON MATERNAL EMPLOYMENT

Fabian Dehos (Ruhr-University Bochum/RGS Econ, Germany) and Marie Paul

This paper evaluates the impact of a massive expansion of after-school programs (ASPs) on the labor market participation of moth-ers with primary school children in the West German context of rela-tively low full-time employment rates. Using an instrumental variable approach we exploit regional and temporal variation in the provision of federal ASP-starting grants by a nationwide investment program. Results suggest that additional ASP places had hardly any effect on working hours or the employment probability of mothers with primary school children.

2 WAGE FLEXIBILITY OF OLDER WORKERS AND THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS - EVIDENCE FROM THE GERMAN LIAB DATA SET

Martin Kerndler (University of Vienna, Germany)

High and rigid wages can be a serious threat for employment, espe-cially for older workers. While wage levels of job stayers in many coun-tries are not systematically decreasing in late working life, little is known about the evolution of wage flexibility over the life-cycle. Using the German matched employer-employee data set (LIAB), this paper investigates the age pattern of wage flexibility with respect to per-manent and transitory shocks to establishment productivity. Concern-ing permanent shocks, I find that wage elasticity is about 0.06 until age 45, and strongly increasing afterwards. Allowing for institutional

44

heterogeneity reveals that this increase is driven by establishments where a works council is in place. Transitory shocks do not have sig-nificant wage effects. Yet, works councils are found to increase wage responsiveness to transitory shocks for older workers, and lower wage responsiveness for prime-age workers. These results suggest that a works council allows elderly workers, who are most vulnerable to job loss after a negative productivity shock, to adjust their wage appropri-ate and retain their job. This is consistent with the theoretical reason-ing that works councils facilitate information transmission between management and workforce, and thereby improve social outcomes at the firm level.

3 RECURRING TEMPORARY CONTRACTS AND LABOUR MARKET ATTACHMENT

Marco Weißler (Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany)

Temporary contracts are considered stepping stones into permanent position as they increase the labour market attachment of employ-ees and serve as a screening device for employers. Recent empiri-cal evidence shows that the increase in the probability of transition into a permanent position by accepting a temporary job is decreasing in the number of such jobs held. In addition to theories of learning about match quality, this paper focuses on the role of employability to account for this fact. As workers’ employability increases only slightly in temporary jobs and diminishes at layoffs, temporary employment spells without transition into a permanent position can adversely influence workers’ future labour market success. Therefore, multiple and interrupted temporary employment spells might lead to a persis-tent loss of attachment to the regular labour market.

45

SESSION 7

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (HEALTH ECONOMICS)

11:30 - 13:00SRG 1.024CHAIR: JPROF. DR. DANIEL AVDIC

1 MATERNITY LEAVE COVERAGE AND CHILDREN’S LONG-TERM HEALTH OUTCOMES IN GERMANY

Marc G. Fabel (Munich Graduate School of Economics, Germany)

Over past decades, parental leave mandates have witnessed an awe-inspiring boost in a lot of developed countries. The average length of parental leave across OECD countries increased from 15 to 63 weeks between 1970 and 2015. While previous literature is quite inconclusive about long-run impacts on children’s educational attain-ment and labor market outcomes, nothing is known about long-run health effects. In order to expand and clarify the literature, I evalu-ate the impact of an expansion in maternity leave coverage from two to six months on children’s long-term health outcomes in Germany. I combine a regression discontinuity with a difference-in-difference approach in order to estimate a causal effect: health outcomes of chil-dren, who were born shortly before and after the implementation of a policy reform, are compared to the outcomes of children who are born in the same calendar months but in a year in which no legisla-tive change took place. Subsequently, I apply a life-course approach, investigate heterogeneous intention-to-treat effects and explore potential mechanisms through which the reform affected long-run health outcomes. By using 21 waves from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) I obtain first results that suggest a negative effect of the length of maternity leave on several measures of subjective health. In contrast, I find little evidence for the hypothesis that the length of maternity leave affects children’s objective or biometric health out-comes. Currently, I am extending the analysis by applying the same identification strategy to other datasets. For that purpose, I use the German Micro Census, Europe’s largest household survey, and hos-pital administrative data, which contains detailed information about all inpatients’ socio-demographic characteristics, diagnoses and treat-ment in Germany over the past 19 years.

46

2 BISMARCK IN THE BEDROOM? PENSION REFORM AND FERTILITY: EVIDENCE 1870-2010

Philipp Jäger (RWI, Germany)

Rising public pension generosity has been frequently cited as one rea-son for the (persistently) declining fertility rates in many advanced economies. Despite the theoretical appeal, empirical evidence on the pension-fertility nexus is limited. To fill this gap, I study country-level fertility trends before and after 23 pension reforms using a long-run panel dataset starting in 1870. In addition to the raw fertility rate (birth per women aged 15-49), I examine the residuals of a fertility regression, which capture variations in the fertility rate that cannot be explained by standard theories. Contrasting pre- and post-reform trends of the raw fertility rate as well as the fertility regression residual across countries, I do not find robust evidence that pension reforms, on average, affect fertility. On the individual country level, however, some reforms are indeed associated with a significant change in fer-tility trends. Varying social ties might provide an explanation for the different country-specific fertility reactions to pension reforms.

3 EFFECTS OF WORKING PART-TIME AND FULL-TIME ON PHYSICAL AND MENTAL HEALTH IN OLD AGE IN EUROPE

Tunga Kantarci and Ingo Kolodziej (Ruhr-University Bochum/RWI, Germany)

We distinguish between part-time and full-time work activity and analyse their effects on the physical and mental health conditions of older workers in Europe. We use statutory eligibility ages for receiving retirement benefits as instruments for part-time and full-time work decisions to avoid the potential bias that deteriorating health condi-tions can cause employees to work fewer hours or not at all. We also control for unobserved heterogeneity across individuals. We find that working full-time deteriorates general health, reduces body weight, increases depression symptoms, and has a negative effect on word recall but a positive effect on numeracy skills. Working part-time has the opposite effects that are larger in magnitude. A comparison of the results obtained in Europe with those obtained in the United States in an earlier study shows that health responses to working part-time and full-time in old age differ across Europe and the United States.

47

SESSION 8

ECONOMETRICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS

11:30 - 13:00SEMINARRAUM 1 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. PETER POSCH

1 UNIT ROOT TESTING WITH SLOWLY VARYING TRENDS

Sven Otto (University of Cologne, Germany)

We propose a unit root test for time series with a nonparametric trend component using a rolling window scheme with overlapping blocks. For both fixed-b and small-b blocklength asymptotics we derive limit-ing distributions that are robust under heteroskedasticity. By pre-whit-ening the series we account for autocorrelation. In a Monte Carlo sim-ulation with slowly varying trend components both the fixed-b and small-b tests yield good size and higher power for near integrated alternatives than conventional unit root tests. An application to quar-terly inflation rates of 22 countries provides evidence that inflation rates are stationary around a slowly varying trend.

2 THE VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN EMERGING MARKETS: MEASURES AND DETERMINANTS

Maria Sole Pagliari (Rutgers University, United States of America) and Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Sec-ond, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for

48

policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.

3 DYNAMIC CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CURVE IN A NETWORK TOPOLOGY

Xiu Xu (HU Berlin, Germany), Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen and Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Systemically important banks are connected and have dynamic dependencies of their default probabilities. An extraction of default factors from cross-sectional credit default swaps (CDS) curves allows to analyze the shape and the dynamics of the default probabilities. Extending the Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) model, we propose a net-work DNS model to analyze the interconnectedness of default factors in a timely fashion, and forecast the CDS curves with network infor-mation. The extracted level factors representing long-term default risk demonstrate 85.5% total connectedness, while the slope and the cur-vature factors document 79.72% and 62.94% total connectedness for the short-term and middle-term default risk, respectively. The issues of default spillover and systemic risk should be weighted for the mar-ket participants with longer credit exposures, and for regulators with a mission to stabilize financial markets. The US banks contribute more to the long-run default spillover before 2012, whereas the European banks are major default transmitters during and after the European debt crisis either in the long-run or short-run. The outperformance of the network DNS model indicates that the prediction on CDS curve requires network information.

49

SESSION 9

INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS

14:00 - 15:30VERANSTALTUNGSSAAL (IBZ)CHAIR: DR. JOSCHA BECKMANN

1 WHY ARE IMPORT PRICES MORE ELASTIC TO LOCAL CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS THAN REVALUATIONS?

Justas Dainauskas (University of York, Great Britain)

A number of recent empirical studies established that exchange rate pass-through into import prices tends to be greater following a deval-uation of the local currency compared to a revaluation. Unlike the majority of linear business cycle models with time-dependent nominal rigidity that are ill-equipped to explain such phenomenon, this paper models ex- change rate pass-through endogenously in the context of state-dependent frictions inducing downward rigidity of wages, prices and investment as observed in many OECD economies. In a US-UK general equilibrium model, it is shown that the primary source of this asymmetry is the excessive stickiness of UK export prices in the down-ward direction combined with high dependence of UK exporters on imported raw materials (around 60% of total imports) such that US dollar devaluations, on average, lead to a unit-elastic response of US import prices with a slight overshoot in the short-run, unlike revalua-tions that give rise to around 30-80% lower pass-through at the bor-der. By contrast, US consumer prices are less elastic to exchange rate changes, because around 40-50% of their composition is attributed to the remuneration for local distribution services that UK exporters hire to transport goods from the US docks to the retail sector. How-ever, US retail prices do inherit some of the tendency from import prices to rise faster and by more than to fall justifying a more ‘hawk-ish’ monetary policy when the US dollar devalues than it would other-wise be ‘doveish’ in case of a revaluation.

50

2 ANALYSIS OF MONETARY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES IN A TWO-COUNTRY MODEL FOR MEXICO AND US

Aída J. García-Lázaro (University of York, Great Britain)

This paper analyses a set of macroprudential policies for Mexico using a two-country Neokeynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model; it includes the banking sector á la Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010) with a financial friction between households and banks. This frame-work is an extension of Cuadra and Nuguer (2015) RBC model, I incor-porate nominal rigidities in the model to evaluate the monetary policy conducted by the central bank and I present a comparison of macro-prudential policies suitable for emerging countries with similar fea-tures to Mexico. I mimic a crisis by hitting the economy with a negative quality capital shock in the foreign economy, which triggers a decline in return of capital, asset prices and net worth of banks in the foreign and domestic economies. The higher constraint decreases investment and production in both countries given by the international mecha-nism transmission between the financial sectors. I find the propaga-tion of this external shock over real variables is amplified when prices are rigid compared with full flexibility. Moreover, it is shown the con-straint in production and the worsening of banks balance sheet shrink in Mexico, when the central bank looks out for deviations of domestic credit from its equilibrium value, as a component in the monetary pol-icy rule. A macroprudential policy based on taxing cross border bank-ing flows is also effective to reduce the credit constraint and fall in output. In both cases, these policies lessen the impact over the Mexi-can economy coming from a shock in the rest of the world, the mecha-nisms of transmission are different and the cost as well, however both are effective.

3 LINKING NET FOREIGN PORTFOLIO DEBT AND EQUITY TO EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS AND EXCESS RETURNS

Malin Gardberg (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands)

Most currencies, with the exception of a number of so called “safe haven” currencies, tend to depreciate during times of financial tur-bulence. Using a panel of 26 currencies over the time period 1/1997-6/2016, I show that currencies of countries with large external port-

51

folio debt are more sensitive to changes in financial market risk tolerance than currencies with large external equity liabilities. As the type of assets constituting the net foreign asset position might affect the sensitivity of the currency to changes in external lending, this has significant implications for the currency risk premia as well. I also find that the relationship between financial market risk intolerance, net external assets positions and exchange rates has become much stronger after the great financial crisis.

52

SESSION 10

EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS

14:00 - 15:30SEMINARRAUM 2/3 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. JEANNETTE BROSIG-KOCH

1 SHARING OR GAMBLING? ON RISK ATTITUDES IN SOCIAL CONTEXTS

Stefan Grimm (LMU Munich, Germany), Martin G. Kocher, Michal Krawczyk and Fabrice Le Lec

Risk taking is very often embedded in a social context that we usu-ally abstract from when studying decision making in the laboratory. In contrast to that, in our experiment, we investigate whether risk tak-ing is affected by social comparisons. In particular, we focus on situa-tions where some resource has to be allocated between two parties: either the resource can be shared, or a random device allocates the entire resource to one of the parties. We find that this social context of the decision matters strongly. When participants are in a disadvan-taged initial position compared to the other party, they select the risky option much more often than in an identical purely individual decision. We interpret our findings as providing support for the existence of a social reference point.

2 MENTAL ACCOUNTING OF PUBLIC FUNDS - THE FLYPAPER EFFECT IN THE LAB

Johannes Becker, Daniel Hopp and Michael Kriebel (University of Münster, Germany)

This paper reports evidence from a laboratory experiment that focusses on mental accounting of ‘public funds’. Groups of three players decide upon how much to redistribute within the group. We

53

find that the inclination to redistribute is significantly higher if it is financed out of a common budget. Since the common budget is other-wise used for the players’ private consumption, its relative size should not affect the decision to redistribute. We interpret this finding as evidence for a flypaper effect due to mental accounting and discuss implications for tax policy and government spending.

3 SEEKING RISK OR ANSWERING SMART? FRAMING IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

Valentin Wagner (HHU Düsseldorf, Germany)

This paper investigates how framing manipulations affect the quantity and quality of decisions. In a field experiment in elementary schools, 1,377 pupils are randomly assigned to one of three conditions in a mul-tiple-choice test: (i) gain frame (Control), (ii) loss frame (Loss), and (iii) gain frame with a downward shift of the point scale (Negative). On average, pupils in both treatment groups answer significantly more questions correctly compared to the “traditional grading”. This increase is driven by two different mechanisms. While pupils in the Loss Treatment increase significantly the quantity of answered ques-tions – seek more risk – pupils in the Negative Treatment seem to increase the quality of their answers – answer more accurately. Moreo-ver, differentiating pupils by their initial ability shows that a downward shift of the point scale is superior to loss framing. High-performers increase performance in both treatment groups, but motivation is sig-nificantly crowded out for low-performers only in the Loss Treatment.

54

SESSION 11

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

14:00 - 15:30SRG 1.024CHAIR: JPROF. DR. SANNE KRUSE-BECHER

1 REMITTANCES AND THE BRAIN DRAIN: EVIDENCE FROM MICRODATA FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Julia Bredtmann, Fernanda Martínes-Flores (Ruhr-University Bo-chum/RWI, Germany) and Sebastian Otten

Research on the relationship between high-skilled migration and remittances has been limited by the lack of suitable microdata. We create a unique cross-country dataset by combining household sur-veys from five Sub-Saharan African countries that enables us to ana-lyze the effect of migrants’ education on their remittance behavior. Having comprehensive information on both ends of the migrant-origin household relationship and employing household fixed effects spec-ifications that only use within-household variation for identification allows us to address the problem of unobserved heterogeneity across migrants’ origin households. Our results reveal that migrants’ educa-tion has no significant impact on the likelihood of sending remittances. Conditional on sending remittances, however, high-skilled migrants send significantly higher amounts of money to their households left behind. This effect holds for the sub-groups of internal migrants and migrants in non-OECD countries, while it vanishes for migrants in OECD destination countries once characteristics of the origin house-hold are controlled for.

2 LOCAL ELITES AND COLONIAL ADMINISTRATION: EVIDENCE FROM BRITISH INDIA

Arash Naghavi (University of Konstanz, Germany) and Shujaat Farooq

Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) of 1901 established in the North West of colonial India two ultimately constituted neighboring prov-inces. In the North West Frontier Province, the British rulers legalized

55

an ethnic pre-colonial institution called Jirga or council of elders. This council continued to be consisted of established local elites formally appointed by the British rulers. The neighboring Punjab province administered by the colonial government. We investigate the long-term effect of the FCR on socio-economic development. Exploiting the discontinuous variation in the institutional setup, we use a Regression Discontinuity Design to estimate the effect. We show that the pre-co-lonial institution had significantly negative impact on development outcomes. In particular, we find that areas with a legacy of pre-colo-nial institution have lower literacy rate and schooling attainment and inferior in access to piped water and electricity.

3 CHILDREN OR EDUCATION OR BOTH? FERTILITY PROSPECTS AND EDUCATIONAL INVESTMENT IN CHINA DURING THE ONE-CHILD-POLICY

Eva Raiber (Toulouse School of Economics, France)

This paper addresses the question how future family planning deci-sions affect current schooling investment decisions. While the rela-tionship between educational investment and fertility choice has been well researched, the question how fertility prospects – the number of children one expects to have in the future – and educational invest-ment decisions are related lacks empirical evidence. Using the one-child policy and its diverse eligibility criteria for second child permits as exogenous changes to fertility prospects, I investigate the effect of not having to pay fines for the second child on educational investment decisions. I find that officially being allowed to have more than one child in the future increases educational investment significantly for both men and women. I also show that second child permits increase the likelihood of having a second child by around 11 percentage points and that the effect of the reform on the schooling level is likely to be driven by individuals that have a medium range likelihood of having a second child, absent of any second child permits. The positive effect found empirically is in line with theoretical prediction when the num-ber of children does not have a strong negative effect on the returns to education in the labour market and when children are generally regarded as costly. This indicates that having several children and education are not per se contradictory.

SESSION 12

56

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (LABOR MARKETS)

16:00 - 17:30VERANSTALTUNGSSAAL (IBZ)CHAIR: JPROF. DR. ROLAND WINKLER

1 JOB TASKS AND MISMATCH WITHIN OCCUPATIONS

Aspasia Bizopoulou (Edinburgh University, United Kingdom)

I propose a new multi-dimensional measure of mismatch derived from individual-level information on skills and tasks. Previous meas-ures have either entirely excluded information about tasks or have used tasks aggregated at the level of the occupation, rather than at the individual level. I find that across nine EU countries, up to 24% of the population is mismatched in literacy and 15% in numeracy. I also find that for Northern European countries, extreme levels of skill-task mismatch are negatively correlated with wages and the corre-lation persists within occupations. Southern and Central Europe do not appear to exhibit any correlation between mismatch and wages, either between or within occupations. Subsequently, I compare the new measure to existing measures of mismatch from the literature. I find that measures based on higher levels of data aggregation or measures excluding the role of tasks tend to consistently under-es-timate the cross-sectional correlation between mismatch and wages.

2 THE TREND IN LABOUR INCOME SHARE: THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN IMPERFECT LABOUR MARKETS

Francesco Carbonero (IAB Nürnberg, Germany), Christian Offer-manns and Enzo Weber

The non-constancy of factor shares is drawing the attention of many researchers. We contribute to the literature by documenting an aver-age drop of the labour share of 8 percentage points for eight Euro-pean countries and the US between 1980 and 2007. We investigate theoretically and empirically two mechanisms: a substitution effect between ICT and labour and an employment adjustment cost effect.

57

We find that the ICT-labour replacement effect is a promising channel to explain the decline of the labour share, though it is partly damp-ened when we consider the hiring costs. In Europe, in particular, the latter seems to be the prevailing mechanism. Finally, by modelling the elasticity as a function of labour market institutions and worker groups, we find that it is strongly positively correlated with a decline of routine occupations. An unconventional way to present the job polarization phenomenon.

3 PUBLIC INSURANCE OF MARRIED VERSUS SINGLE HOUSEHOLDS IN THE US: TRENDS AND WELFARE CONSEQUENCES

Swapnil Singh (University of Amsterdam, Netherlands)

Using the March Current Population Survey, I show that over the last two decades, married households in the United States received increasingly more public insurance against labor income risk, whereas the opposite was true for single households. To evaluate the welfare consequences of this trend, I perform a quantitative analysis. As a novel contribution, I expand the standard incomplete markets model á la Aiyagari (1994) to include two groups of households: married and single. The model allows for changes in the marital status of house-holds and accounts for transition dynamics between steady states. I show that the divergent trends in public insurance have a significant detrimental effect on the welfare of both married and single house-holds. Higher public insurance crowds out the private savings of mar-ried households, thus decreasing their mean wealth. In the long run, lower wealth decreases mean consumption for married households, driving the decline in their welfare. For singles, transition dynamics play a major role. Although in response to lower public insurance they save more and can afford higher mean consumption in the new steady state, the welfare loss from lower initial consumption after the policy change offsets this welfare gain.

58

SESSION 13

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (MIGRATION AND INTEG-RATION)

16:00 - 17:30SEMINARRAUM 2/3 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. REINHOLD SCHNABEL

1 WHY DO MIGRANT WORKERS RELY MORE OFTEN ON REFERRALS?

Sevak Alaverdyan (Bielefeld Graduate School of Economics and Management, Germany)

Empirical analysis of the SOEP data from 2002 to 2008 show that 41.21% of migrant workers and 31.79% of native workers found their current job through referrals. Estimation results of the panel pro-bit model with random effects show that a part of the 9.42% can be explained by the control variables including characteristics of the indi-viduals and firms. But still there is 7.2% statistically significant differ-ence of the predicted probabilities of using referrals between migrant and native workers. Intuitively, one can expect that migrant workers have smaller social networks in the new destination country and by that smaller probability of finding a job through referrals, but our empirical observation shows that migrant workers are more likely to find a job through referrals even after introducing controls. In order to explain this puzzle, this paper presents a search and matching model with heterogeneous worker groups and several search channels. Cali-bration results of the model show that even when migrant workers have smaller size of the social network, they gain more from recom-mendations, because their employment chances are initially much lower than employment chances of native workers.

59

2 THE EVOLUTION OF IMMIGRANT’S HOMEOWNERSHIP IN GERMANY

Dorothee Ihle (University of Münster, Germany) and Andrea Sie-bert-Meyerhoff

Recently, homeownership rates of migrants in Germany increased by more than 10 percentage points. To shed light on this sharp increase, this paper investigates the change in homeownership rates of immi-grant households in Germany between 1996 to 2005 and 2000 to 2012 respectively using a probit-based non-linear decomposition method. Empirical findings suggest that 50 percent of the change in immigrant’s homeownership rate within the first time period can be explained by characteristics, especially by age and educational attain-ment. In the second time period, the explanatory power of charac-teristics is almost zero indicating that it is the favorable economic environment during that time that is responsible for the increase in homeownership of immigrant households in Germany.

3 THE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF FORCED MIGRATION IN GERMANY

Thomas K. Bauer, Matthias Giesecke and Laura M. Janisch (Ruhr-University Bochum/RGS Econ, Germany)

We examine the long-run effects of forced migration from the former Eastern territories of the German Reich into post-war Germany. The previous literature has shown that expellees are worse off economi-cally, facing a considerably lower income and a higher unemployment risk than comparable natives. We extend this literature by investigat-ing the relative performance of forced migrants across the entire life cycle. Using administrative data of exceptional quality, we show that forced migrants die considerably earlier than the native West-German population.

60

SESSION 14

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (SOVEREIGN DEBT)

16:00 - 17:30SRG 1.024CHAIR: PROF. DR. LUDGER LINNEMANN

1 MARKET LIQUIDITY RISK PREMIA IN EUROZONE GOVERNMENT BONDS’ YIELD SPREADS

Dennis Kahlert (University of Passau, Germany)

This paper is about market liquidity risk premia in Eurozone sover-eign bond spreads between 2008 and 2015. By calibrating an arbi-trage-free reduced form model to the cash- and derivatives markets of each member state, we disentangle credit and market liquidity spread components in government bonds and investigate their dynamics across the Euro Area. Short-term (2Y), medium-term (5Y) and long-term (10Y) government debt is in scope of the analysis. Furthermore, the relationship between government bonds and credit default swaps (basis) is examined by cointegration analysis, where we find evidence that short-term deviations from long-term equilibria are due to tem-porary illiquidity premia inherent in government bond spreads. More-over, we show that the bond markets are more important for price determination than the credit default swap markets although signif-icant spillover from the derivatives to the cash markets is present. Finally, the paper applies regression analysis to the liquidity driven bond/CDS basis to examine the proportion of systematic and idio-syncratic determinants of market liquidity premia. We conclude that these premia are largely determined by marketwide liquidity proxies such as the pfandbrief/bund spread and the banks’ funding spread whereas unconventional monetary policy and idiosyncratic factors play a minor role.

61

2 SOVEREIGNS GOING BUST: ESTIMATING THE COST OF DEFAULT

Dmitry Kuvshinov (University of Bonn, Germany) and Kaspar Zim-mermann

This paper estimates the cost of sovereign default by using novel econometric methods – dynamic local projections applied to a sample that is re-randomised using inverse propensity score weights. We find that the impact of default on output is negative, significant and per-sistent – around 2.9% of GDP on impact and 4.3% at peak. The down-turn is driven by sharp falls in investment, accompanied by a collapse in gross trade. The cost rises dramatically if the default is followed by a systemic banking crisis, peaking at 9.4% GDP. Our findings suggest that while autarky costs play an important role, sovereign-banking spillovers are central to the cost of default.

3 DEBT OVERHANG AND SOVEREIGN DEBT RESTRUCTURING

Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli (University of Rome, Italy)

Debt overhang is defined as a situation where a large amount of debt distorts the optimal investment decisions and discourages the gov-ernment’s efforts of the debtor country to undertake the necessary “adjustment policies”. In this paper I study some different strategies that can be used to solve the sovereign debt overhang problem. In particular, I consider two strategies based on a debt re-structuring process, via haircut or rescheduling, and a third one based on con-ditional- additional lending. This strategy relies on the idea that the debtor country can get new lending from the existing creditors, in order to undertake investments that can affect the productivity shock distribution in a positive way (or reduce the probability of default). The aim of this paper is to study the consequences, deriving from the three strategies described, on the incentives to invest in a “troubled country”. According to these consequences and under some specific conditions, I rank the three strategies in order to see which is the most effective one. In particular, I find that if the change in investments due to the conditional-additional lending makes the probability of default low in this scenario, the conditional lending strategy will be the most effective one. Basically, this paper might help the policy-makers to implement the right intervention according to the specific scenarios considered.

62

SESSION 15

COLLECTIVE DECISION MAKING

16:00 - 17:30SEMINARRAUM 1 (IBZ)CHAIR: JPROF. DR. LARS METZGER

1 WHEN TO LEAVE THE CARROTS FOR THE STICKS: ON THE EVOLUTION OF SANCTIONING INSTITUTIONS IN OPEN COMMUNITIES

Marina Chugunova (University of Hamburg, Germany), Wolfgang Luhan and Andreas Nicklisch

Although there is substantial evidence that punishment regimes are more effective than reward ones for maintaining cooperation in social dilemmas, some findings suggest that subjects dislike negative sanc-tioning institutions and avoid them, when possible. We run an eco-nomic experiment to see how these insights affect one’s behavior in social dilemma situation, where one can “vote with her feet” migrating to the community of the preferred institutional design. We analyze the conditions that can undermine the support for the reward institution and trigger migration to the punishment system. We find that initially the absolute majority opts for the reward institution. However, over time more subjects start to join the less profitable punishment com-munity, with the difference of income within the group and anti-social behavior as some of the key factors for the change in preferences. Players, who migrate to the non-populated punishment community as first are full contributors and those, who follow, cooperate almost fully even without the actual use of punishment, thus reducing the welfare loss caused by punishment.

2 ONLINE ACTIVISM, HETEROGENEOUS NETWORKS AND GOVERNMENT STRATEGY: THE EGYPTIAN ARAB SPRING

Anaïs Dahmani (Toulouse School of Economics, France)

This paper studies the impact of social media on anti-government opposition depending on groups’ heterogeneity and government strategy. A model is derived where two groups of activists, heteroge-

63

neous vs. homogeneous, increase their effectiveness and leadership by consuming ICT information, provided it is not too distorted by tgov-ernment propaganda. Exposure on ICT raise visibility, underground activists might join the public opposition and punished by the regime. The heterogeneous group has larger returns to ICT usage in terms of public activism, but reacts more negatively to propaganda. One finds that repression might raise public activism when the former is a sub-stitute for information manipulation. Social media emergence is more likely to foster opposition when opponents to the regime are divided into heterogeneous groups in need of a communication platform. The model provides justifications for various government strategies, going from complete censorship of ICT to full coverage (e.g. when-ever propaganda has a moderated marginal cost and citizens a high intrinsic motivation for opposition). During the 2011 Egyptian Arab Spring, there is evidence from the literature that the Islamist network was homogeneous, with small collective action problem. Theoretical findings are supported by the literature, and are in line with correla-tions: compared to the rest of Egyptians, Internet usage is linked with smaller probability of rebellion for Islamists.

3 DEMOGRAPHY AND THE COMPOSITION OF TAXES

Weijie Luo (University of York, Great Britain)

This paper analyzes the impact of population aging on the compo-sition of taxes in a political economy model where the median voter is pivotal. As in Razin, Sadka and Swagel (2002) increased share of retirees leads to smaller income taxes. Expenditure taxes decline with increasing share of retirees, while in the heterogeneous income case this relation can be an inverse U shape. Importantly, population aging conceivably increases demand for expenditure taxes rather than income taxes. This idea is tested in a panel of over 100 countries. Con-sistent with the theory, the data exhibit a robust negative correlation between the extent of taxes on income relative to taxes on expendi-ture, and the fraction of retired population.

64

65

SESSION 16

APPLIED INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION

08:30 - 10:00VERANSTALTUNGSSAAL (IBZ)CHAIR: JPROF. DR. LARS METZGER

1 INPUT SUBSTITUTABILITY AND THE VALUE OF A FIRM

Philipp Hergovich (Vienna Graduate School of Economics, Austria) and Monika Merz

How does the ability of a firm, to substitute one input factor for the other, affect its value? As the value of a firm absent any frictions is zero, we study this question using two types of models. The first one is a model with ad hoc adjustment costs, similar to the Tobin’s q lit-erature. We find that the firmvalue increases, if it becomes easier to substitute one input for the other. We then turn to a model with a frictional model, providing a microfoundation for the adjustment costs used in the first model. We extend the standard directed search model, to allow a firm to hire multiple workers. In this setup, we find a non-monotonic relationship between substitutability and the profits a firm makes. This is because higher flexibility in the composition of inputs decreases the rents a firm earns on its factors.

THURSDAY MARCH 2, 2017

66

2 WHAT DO PRODUCTIVITY INDICES TELL US? A CASE STUDY OF U.S. INDUSTRIES

Madigu Godfrey (Navarra Center for International Development, Spain), Luis A. Gil-Alana and Héctor Cárcel

We use fractional integration as a more general approach in order to examine productivity in U.S. manufacturing firms. We find that con-trary to the standard analysis based on time trends with I(0) errors, many manufacturing U.S. industries are highly productive with posi-tive productivity shocks causing permanent effects in the series. This implies that for recovery, policy interventions are necessary in these industries in the event of negative shocks.

3 EVALUATION OF BEST PRICE CLAUSES IN HOTEL BOOKING

Matthias Hunold, Ulrich Laitenberger and Frank Schlütter (HHU Düsseldorf, Germany)

We analyze the best price clauses (BPCs) of online travel agents (OTAs) using meta-search price data of more than 45,000 hotels in different countries. Although OTAs apparently have not changed their stand-ard commission rates following the partial ban of BPCs in Europe, we find that BPCs do influence the pricing and availability of hotel rooms across online sales channels. In particular, the abolition of Booking.com’s narrow BPC is associated with the hotels’ direct channel being the price leader more often. Moreover, hotels make rooms more often available at Booking.com when it does not use the narrow BPC.

How does the ability of a firm, to substitute one input factor for the other, affect its value? As the value of a firm absent any frictions is zero, we study this question using two types of models. The first one is a model with ad hoc adjustment costs, similar to the Tobin’s q lit-erature. We find that the firmvalue increases, if it becomes easier to substitute one input for the other. We then turn to a model with a frictional model, providing a microfoundation for the adjustment costs used in the first model. We extend the standard directed search model, to allow a firm to hire multiple workers. In this setup, we find a non-monotonic relationship between substitutability and the profits a firm makes. This is because higher flexibility in the composition of inputs decreases the rents a firm earns on its factors.

67

SESSION 17

ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION

08:30 - 10:00SEMINARRAUM 2/3 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. CHRISTIANE HELLMANZIK, PH.D

1 CLASS COMPOSITION AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM THE ABOLITION OF DENOMINATIONAL SCHOOLS

Ilka Gerhardts (LMU Munich, Germany), Uwe Sunde and Larissa Zierow

Denominational schools are an important provider of education in many countries around the world. Due to their focus, these schools often operate with multigrade classes, in which more than one age cohort is taught in one classroom. Multigrade classes are a cost-ef-fective way to provide education and play a crucial role in education policy in the context of demographic change. This paper presents esti-mates of the causal effect of attending denominational schools with multigrade classes on schooling and shortrun labor market outcomes. The analysis combines administrative records of schools with compre-hensive population census data, and exploits the abolition of denomi-national schools in the Saarland, a German state, in 1969, for identifi-cation of the effect. The findings document significantly detrimental effects on final grade attainment, labor market participation and soci-oeconomic mobility. Notably, the negative impact is most pronounced in the outcomes of girls. Disentangling the confounding role of varia-tion between Catholic and Protestant schools suggests that this effect might be driven by socialization early in life.

68

2 MAKING IT RIGHT? SOCIAL NORMS, HANDWRITING AND HUMAN CAPITAL

Raphael Guber (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging, Germany)

I study the forced right-hand writing of left-handed children (switch-ing) as a case where social norms motivate parents to invest in their children. While the previous literature has found that left-handers obtain less human capital and lower wages than right-handers, due to innate cognitive deficits, I find that switched lefthanders actually perform equally well or even better than right-handers in the labor market, while non-switched left-handers exhibit the known deficits of left-handers. Using rich data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), it is shown that these differences occur due to differential human capital accumulation indicating a discrimination during school-ing. Taking into account schooling, both types of left-handers exhibit the same wage gap with right-handers. Cognitive and noncognitive traits differ and matter little in explaining these gaps. These findings are consistent with switching being a compensatory intervention for innate deficits. To address potential (positive) selection bias, I propose an identification strategy based on right-handers as a counter-factual group.

3 QUALITY OF TEACHERS AND THEIR EFFECT ON STUDENTS’ LEARNING OUTCOMES - EVIDENCE USING THE GERMAN EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

Matthias Westphal (University of Paderborn, Germany)

In this paper, I focus on the impact of one of the most substantial social changes of the past 50 years – the educational expansion – on the selection of high school teachers. This is important, as it could have long-run effects on learning outcomes of students which is the pri-mary goal of this paper. By exploiting the German educational expan-sion for both, identification as well as to answer the policy relevant effect of interest directly, I find that teachers are adversely selected in times of a high demand for teachers. These effects are still detectable today, decades after the expansion was rolled out. To separate initial teacher selection effects from effects due to school sorting, I make use of a triple difference design that can hold potentially confound-ing parental background characteristics and class mate peer effects

69

fixed – making teacher quality the most likely channel where the effect operates through. I find that roughly 2 percent of a standard deviation in a standardized learning test can be explained by different teacher quality that has been induced by the educational expansion. Given these results, one policy implication for future extensions of public institutions may be close at hand: the political or social preference for rapidly increasing the share of pupil in higher secondary education may be buffered by temporarily easing other target values such as the student-teacher ratio.

70

SESSION 18

MACROECONOMICS I

08:30 - 10:00SRG 1.024CHAIR: HELGE BRAUN, PH.D

1 HOUSE PRICES, GEOGRAPHICAL MOBILITY, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Marcus Mølbak Ingholt (University of Copenhagen, Denmark)

I explore a novel link between labor migration and wage setting in a DSGE model. Declining house prices and tight credit conditions impede the geographical mobility of indebted unemployed workers; this reduces the cross-area competition of workers for jobs, and causes real wages and unemployment to rise. A Bayesian estimation of the model assesses the link empirically. The estimation mainly attributes the historic decline in geographical mobility during the Great Reces-sion to negative housing demand and credit shocks. A counterfactual simulation suggests that, absent the decline in mobility, real wages would have been 0.3 pct. lower, and the unemployment rate would have been 0.6 pct. point lower during 2010-2012. The findings advise policymakers to implement policies, such as countercyclical loan-to-value limits, that reduce or overturn the procyclicality in mobility, as this will help wages to clear labor markets, thereby alleviating reces-sions.

2 MONEY, INFLATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF INFORMALITY

Mohammed Aït Lahcen (University of Basel, Switzerland)

This paper studies the impact of informality on the long-run relation-ship between inflation and unemployment in developing economies. I present a dynamic general equilibrium model with informality in both labor and goods markets and where money and credit coexist. An

71

increase in inflation affects unemployment through two channels: the matching channel and the hiring channel. On one hand, higher infla-tion reduces the surplus of monetary trades thus lowering firms entry and increasing unemployment. On the other hand, the lower impact of inflation on formal transactions where credit is partially available shifts firms hiring decision from high separation informal jobs to low separation formal jobs thus reducing unemployment. The model is cal-ibrated to match certain long-run statistics of the Brazilian economy. Numerical results indicate that, in the presence of a sizable informal sector, inflation has a small negative effect on unemployment while producing a significant impact on labor allocation between formal and informal jobs. These results point to the importance of accounting for informality when considering the inflation-unemployment trade-off in the conduct of monetary policy.

3 DISCRETIZING THE INFINITE-DIMENSIONAL SPACE OF DISTRIBUTIONS TO APPROXIMATE MARKOV EQUILIBRIA WITH EX-POST HETEROGENEITY AND AGGREGATE RISK

Elisabeth Pröhl (University of Geneva, Switzerland)

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with ex-post heteroge-neity due to idiosyncratic risk typically have to be solved numerically. However, as the cross-sectional distribution of endogenous variables becomes an element of the state space due to the aggregate risk, this is a nontrivial task. Existing algorithms assume bounded rationality of the agents to reduce dimensionality meaning that they only keep track of a limited number of moments of the cross-sectional distri-bution. In this paper, we do not take that assumption and compute a recursive fully rational equilibrium which depends on the whole state distribution. Dimensionality is tackled by polynomial chaos expan-sions, a projection technique for square-integrable random variables. Hence, this algorithm is a global solution method relying solely on pro-jection. Another important distinction w.r.t. the existing algorithms is that a theoretical convergence result is given ensuring that the solu-tion is indeed close to a recursive rational equilibrium.

72

SESSION 19

BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS

10:00 – 11:30VERANSTALTUNGSSAAL (IBZ)CHAIR: JPROF. DR. LILIA ZHURAKHOVSKA

1 THE DIFFERENT EFFECT OF CONSUMER LEARNING ON INCENTIVES TO DIFFERENTIATE IN COURNOT AND BERTRAND COMPETITION

Maximillian Conze (University of Bonn, Germany) and Michael Kramm

We combine two extensions of the differentiated duopoly model of Dixit (1979), namely Caminal and Vives (1996) and Brander and Spen-cer (2015a,b), to analyze the effect of consumer learning on firms’ incentives to differentiate their products in models of Cournot and Bertrand competition. Products are of different quality, consumers buy sequentially and are imperfectly informed about the quality of the goods. Before simultaneously competing in quantities, firms simulta-neously choose their investment into differentiation. Late consum-ers can observe earlier consumers’ decisions and extract information about the quality of the goods. This influences the firms’ incentives to differentiate.

If firms compete in quantities, they are more likely to invest in dif-ferentiation with consumer learning than without. This is in line with implications of the recommendation effect introduced in Conze and Kramm (2016) in a model of spatial differentiation. We also examine the case in which firms compete in prices. Here, the effect of con-sumer learning is reversed, so that differentiation is less likely with consumer learning. Thus, we find an information-based difference between Cournot and Bertrand competition: in the Bertrand setting consumer learning increases the competition, i.e. products are more likely to be substitutes, and it weakens it in the Cournot model.

73

2 CONSEQUENTIALITY AND THE WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY FOR RENEWABLES: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY

Mark A. Andor, Manuel Frondel and Marco Horvath (Ruhr-University Bochum/RGS Econ, Germany)

Employing hypothetical responses originating from a large-scale sur-vey among about 7,000 German households, this study investigates the discrepancy in willingness-to pay (WTP) estimates for green elec-tricity across the discrete-choice and open-ended valuation formats, thereby accounting for perceived consequentiality: respondents self-select into two groups distinguished by their belief in the conse-quentiality of their answers for policy making. Contrasting with the received literature, we find WTP bids that tend to be higher among those respondents who received the open-ended question, rather than the discrete-choice format. This difference, however, shrinks when focusing on individuals who perceive the survey as politically consequential.

3 TEAM INCENTIVES UNDER MORAL AND ALTRUISTIC PREFERENCES: WHICH TEAM TO CHOOSE?

Roberto Zeitounlain Sarkisian (Toulouse School of Economics, France)

A central hypothesis in a principal-agent relation is that the princi-pal and agents seek to maximize material payoffs. This paper studies incentives provision when agents are characterized either by homo moralis preferences (Alger & Weibull, 2013), i.e. their utility is repre-sented by a convex combination of selfish preferences and Kantian morality, or altruism. In a moral hazard in teams setting with two agents whose efforts affect output stochastically, I demonstrate that the power of extrinsic incentives decreases with the degrees of moral-ity and altruism displayed by the agents, thus leading to increased profits for the principal. I also compare the power of the optimal con-tracts and the principal’s expected payoff under both preferences, and characterize the conditions under which an employer would prefer a team of moral agents over altruistic ones.

74

SESSION 20

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

10:00 – 11:30SEMINARRAUM 2/3 (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. TOBIAS SEIDEL

1 DESTINATION-BASED CORPORATE INCOME TAXATION WITH NON-UNIFORM TAX RATES

Markos Jung (University of Münster, Germany)

A destination-based corporate income taxation, as proposed by Auer-bach & Devereux (2015), could substantially increase the allocation efficiency of production. However, the efficiency properties of this system crucially depend on uniform taxation, i.e. all firms have to be taxed at the same tax rate. In real-world tax systems, there are virtu-ally always firms or entire sectors which are subject to favorable tax treatment or are exempt from tax. This paper explores the properties of destination based taxes when tax rates are non-uniform.

2 WHAT DETERMINES THE DIRECTIONALITY OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’ EXPORT SOPHISTICATION?

Yue Teng (University of Trento, Italy)

A country’s exports to different directions bear different sophisti-cation levels, and thus have different developmental effects. In this paper, the highly disaggregated export data on 101 developing coun-tries (without emerging countries) from 1995 to 2014 show that although the majority of these countries have more sophisticated Southbound exports than Northbound exports, for some others the reverse is true. Logistic regressions further show that technological capability is the single most important factor that determines the directionality of developing countries’ export sophistication. A more advanced developing country that has higher technological capability is more likely to have more sophisticated Northbound exports than Southbound exports, while a less advanced developing country with

75

lower technological capability is more likely to have more sophisti-cated Southbound exports. This result slightly deviates from the tra-ditional argument that South-South trade is more growth-enhancing than South-North trade for developing countries, because for those more advanced developing countries their Northbound exports tend to be more sophisticated.

3 UNDERSTANDING IMPORT DIVERSIFICATION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Juan Felipe Mejia Mejia, Hermilson Velasquez and Victor Zapata (University of Bielefeld, Germany)

This paper analyzes import diversification in an aggregated perspec-tive. Using a dataset for 60 countries covering the period 1995-2010, we study the main determinants of import diversification. We expect to contribute to the current literature, taking into account that there have been few empirical studies addressing import diversification and more specifically, at the cross-country level. We take into account var-iables classified into four categories: Structural factors, macroeco-nomic factors, international trade factors and political factors. We find robust evidence that total factor productivity (TFP), capital stock, real exchange rates and terms of trade are key drivers of import diversi-fication. On the other hand, domestic consumption and trade open-ness exert an effect leading to import concentration. We interpret this finding, taking into account the theoretical framework provided by the international trade and growth theories.

76

SESSION 21MACROECONOMICS II

10:00 – 11:30SRG 1.024CHAIR: PROF. DR. MICHAEL ROOS

1 WHAT EXPLAINS THE LATEST INCREASE IN THE U.S. RENTAL HOUSING SECTOR? EVIDENCE FROM AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL

Robert Forster (Cardiff University, Great Britain)

The Great Recession had not only far-reaching consequences for many sectors of the U.S. economy but also triggered a shift from homeowner to rental housing. This papers therefore investigates the dynamics of the rental and owner-occupied housing market in responds to banking and financial frictions. Moreover, I allow for an anticipated innovation in the TFP shock structure in order to analyze whether house and rental prices respond to productivity news. This is achieved by building a DSGE model which accommodates both, a rental and owner-occu-pied housing market. I find that the preference, investment and loan-to-value shock have significantly contributed to the latest increase in rental housing. Loan defaults had a considerable impact on house and rental price dynamics during and after the financial crisis. Overall, this study finds that movements of house and rental prices and changes in the home ownership structure are largely determined by one inno-vation: the preference shock. The housing demand shock drives more than one-third of rental price fluctuations but only contributes negli-gibly to the movement of house prices.

2 PENSION REFORM WITH ENTREPRENEURIAL CHOICE

Hans Fehr and Florian Hofbauer (University of Würzburg, Germany)

This paper presents an overlapping generations model with occupa-tional choice that allows for entrepreneurial entry, exit and invest-ment decisions in the presence of idiosyncratic productivity risk and borrowing constraints. The model is applied to analyze the conse-quences of pension reforms in Germany where we introduce either

77

a comprehensive paygo system, flat benefits or a fully funded sys-tem. Compared to previous studies we compute the full transition path after the reform and quantify the intergenerational welfare effects as well as aggregate efficiency consequences. Our simulation results indicate that the design of the pension system directly affects occu-pational choice when employees and self-employed are treated dif-ferently by the pension system. As a consequence, the labor supply distortions induced by pension reforms are significantly higher than in previous studies which do not consider this extensive margin explic-itly. In addition, pension systems influence occupational choice indi-rectly through changes in financial constraints and factor prices. We also show that the pension system might have opposite effects on dif-ferent types of entrepreneurs. Finally, pension reforms have a strong impact on wealth inequality in our set up.

3 CONDITIONALLY BINDING FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND ASYMMETRIC AMPLIFICATION

Christopher Martin Hols (University of Bonn, Germany)

What are the effects of conditionally binding constraints over the business cycle? I build a simple general equilibrium model with condi-tionally binding financial frictions and aversion to debt which predicts asymmetries in how shocks get amplified. Using industry’s net worth as a proxy for financial frictions and value-added data I show that industries with lower net worth suffer more during downturns com-pared to industries with higher net worth while there are no differ-ences in expansions. Further the effect is asymmetric. Larger reces-sions get amplified while there is no effect for mild recession. This indicates the presence of conditionally binding financial frictions.

78

SESSION 22

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (APPLIED ECONOMET-RICS)

12:15 - 13:45VERANSTALTUNGSSAAL (IBZ)CHAIR: PROF. DR. CHRISTOPH HANCK

1 THE IMPACT OF EMPLOYMENT ON HOUSING PRICES: DETAILED EVIDENCE FROM FDI IN IRELAND

Kerri Agnew (Tinity College Dublin, Ireland) and Ronan C. Lyons

Access to employment is one of the most valuable amenities offered by cities. In urban economics, this is the principal driver of the bid-rent gradient and is a key determinant of housing prices and land val-ues. However, little is known about the causal effect of employment on housing prices, due to the problem of identification. This study pre-sents the first causal estimates of employment changes on housing prices, both sales and rental. It does this by using a purpose-built spa-tially granular dataset of 1.4 million housing prices and FDI employ-ment, covering Ireland 2007-2013. Identification rests on a combina-tion of rich spatiotemporal variation due to the abundance of FDI in Ireland, a rich set of location controls and an inelastic housing supply in the period covered. The main results show that 1-2 years after 1,000 extra jobs have been created, monthly rents in nearby properties will be between 0.5% and 1% higher. The effect on prices is at least 2% but less consistent across specifications. Using our baseline estimates of an increase in rent prices of 1% and in sale prices of 2%, we esti-mate that increases in employment increased the stock of wealth in owner occupied real estate by €68 million, and €7.6 million in the pri-vate rented sector during 2009-2013.

79

2 THE COMPOSITION EFFECTS OF TAX-BASED CONSOLIDATIONS ON INCOME INEQUALITY

Gabriele Ciminelli (University of Amsterdam, Netherlands), Ekke-hard Ernst, Massimo Giuliodori and Rossana Merola

We analyse the effects of tax-based consolidations on income ine-quality, output and labour market conditions for a sample of 16 OECD countries over the period 1978-2012 employing a panel vector autore-gressive methodology. We find that tax-based consolidations reduce income inequality, but at the cost of weaker economic activity. How-ever, tax composition does matter. We show that indirect taxes reduce income inequality by more than direct taxes, possibly due to the oper-ation of a positive labour supply channel. Among indirect taxes, value added and sale taxes are the most successful tool for policymakers to balance efficiency and equity. Finally, we show that tax-based consol-idations reduce disposable income inequality via a decrease in mar-ket income disparities and an increase in government redistribution respectively in countries with a weaker and a stronger preference for redistribution.

3 INFLATION IN THE AFTERMATH OF BANKING CRISES

Jürgen Kähler and Christoph Weber (University of Erlangen-Nürn-berg, Germany)

There has been a plethora of banking crises in the past decades. According to Laeven and Valencia (2013) there have been 147 systemic banking crises in 93 countries since the late 1970s. One of the main economic questions is what effects these financial crises have. Previ-ous studies have mainly analysed the effects on GDP growth. However, there is still a gap in analysing the effect of banking crises on infla-tion. This study tries to fill this gap by employing a large panel data set on banking crises including countries from all over the world. The empirical analysis confirms that conjecture that banking crises lead, after several years, to higher inflation rates. After controlling for other causes of inflation we find an economically and statistically signifi-cant impact of banking crises on inflation. Thus, countries that have experienced a banking crisis tend to have higher inflation rates in the medium term.

80

SESSION 23

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (MONETARY POLICY AND EXPECTATIONS)

12:15 - 13:45SEMINARRAUM 2/3 (IBZ)CHAIR: JPROF. DR. ROLAND WINKLER

1 HELICOPTER MONEY: SURVEY EVIDENCE ON EXPECTATION FORMATION AND CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR

Uros Djuric (TU Darmstadt, Germany) and Michael Neugart

The effects of helicopter money on expectations and economic out-comes is largely unexplored from an empirical point of view. We fielded a representative survey among the German population ran-domly assigning respondents to various unconventional monetary policy scenarios that raise household incomes. Asking participants on how they would spend the money and what their expectations on var-ious key economic variables are, allowed us to explore the likely con-sequences of an injection of helicopter money into the economy. Our main findings are that in all policy treatments people consider money as a windfall and spend the same amount they would spend out of a lottery win, regardless if the transfer was debt financed and provided by the government or printed and provided by the central bank. Pol-icies seem not to suffer from Ricardian equivalence and do not raise inflation expectations. Furthermore, expectations about inflation, eco-nomic conditions and government behaviour are not strongly corre-lated with the individuals’ spending decisions. Finally, while we do not confirm earlier results on mental accounting theories as a behavioural explanation of the respondents’ answers, we do find interesting cor-relations between peoples’ budgeting plans and spending decisions.

81

2 THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION EXPECTATION UNCERTAINTY ON INFLATION AND THE OUTPUT GAP

Angela Fuest (Ruhr-University Bochum/RWI, Germany) and Torsten Schmidt

Uncertainty about the future path of inflation affects consumption, saving and investment decisions as well as wage negotiations and price setting of _rms. These decisions are based on inflation expecta-tions which are a key determinant of inflation in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. In this paper we therefore explicitly analyse the rela-tionship between inflation expectations, the inflation rate and the out-put gap and the variance of these variables as uncertainty measures by using a VAR-GARCH-in-mean model. Our main finding is that infla-tion expectation uncertainty is positively related to expected inflation and to the inflation rate.

3 MONETARY POLICY COMMUNICATION SHOCKS AND THE MACROECONOMY

Robert Goodhead and Benedikt Kolb (European University Institute, Italy)

In this paper, we argue that previous research estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks on macro-economic variables confounds the impact of surprise changes in the policy rate with the impact of sur-prise announcements about future rates (“communication shocks”). Although a large literature has pointed to the increased importance of communication by the Federal Reserve about its envisioned future policy course, VAR methods tend not to differentiate between sur-prises relating to the actions of policymakers and news shocks regard-ing future actions. This paper distinguishes between the two effects, offering a novel decomposition of jumps in federal funds futures con-tract prices on announcement days, exploiting variation across matur-ities of contract. Using a monthly sample from 1994 to 2008, results indicate that it is mainly communication about future policy moves that affects production in the ways traditionally associated with mon-etary policy shocks. We find that communication shocks explain a sub-stantial share of variation in production. They can also be more easily aligned with historical episodes of Fed hawkishness and dovishness.

82

SESSION 24

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (PUBLIC ECONOMICS

12:15 - 13:45SRG 1.024CHAIR: PROF. DR. TOBIAS SEIDEL

1 ESTIMATING FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN COLOMBIA

Richard Jaimes (Tilburg University, Netherlands)

The aim of this paper is to analyze how local governments in Colombia adjust their fiscal positions in response to budget imbalances. Using a panel data set of more than 450 municipalities and 26 departments over the period 1993 to 2013, I estimate a vector error-correction model in order to identify the level of discretion in policymaking at the local level in terms of fiscal reaction functions. I find that the local gov-ernments in Colombia commit to satisfy an intertemporal budget con-straint. However, I also find that there are remarkable differences in the dynamic adjustment governments follow in order to restore their fiscal position. For instance, departmental governments face greater fiscal constraints in comparison with the municipal governments since these intermediate governments are financed largely by excise taxes and grants tend to respond in a lower extent to their budgetary inno-vations. Likewise, decomposing the municipal sample, I show that intergovernmental grants is a key variable for the majority of munici-palities and that own-source revenues do not play an important role in fiscal adjustment patterns with the exception of large cities.

2 CORPORATE TAX COMPETITION AND PROFIT SHIFTING TO TAX HAVENS

Simon Naitram (University of Glasgow, Scotland)

This paper presents the case that governments set corporate tax rates both in competition for real investment and in response to profit shifting. Multinational firms seek to maximize global profit by allo-

83

cating capital across countries, leading to strategic interaction using corporate tax rates in competition for real investment. The role of tax havens in artificial profit shifting shows increased profit shifting has led to lower corporate tax rates. A simple theoretical model of tax competition and profit shifting predicts that statutory tax rates are strategic complements, and that tax rates respond negatively to profit shifting. These predictions are empirically confirmed by a spa-tial autoregressive model with bilateral investment weights instead of size, distance or uniform weights. Importantly, this research finds that strategic interaction between governments for real investment is smaller than previously estimated: a 1 percentage point reduction in the weighted average tax rate of neighbouring countries is found to generate a 0.25 percentage point cut in response, substantially lower than the 0.7 previously estimated. Additionally, profit shifting to tax havens significantly influences governments’ corporate tax rates. The observed trend of falling corporate tax rates is a function of both tax competition for investment and profit shifting to tax havens.

3 DO POLITICAL PARTIES MATTER? - EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN MUNICIPALITIES

Nadine Riedel, Martin Simmler and Christian Wittrock (Ruhr-Univer-sity Bochum/RGS Econ, Germany)

The paper aims to test whether partisanship affects policy outcomes at the local level. While the literature has presented comprehensive evidence for partisan effects on policy outcomes at the state and federal level, recent findings suggest that partisan effects may be absent at the city and municipality level. Using detailed data on pub-lic goods and service spending, we assess the link between the parti-sanship of local councils and the composition of public good spending of German localities. Firstly, we estimate panel data models assess-ing whether changes in partisanship impact per-capita-spending in different spending-categories. Secondly, we investigate whether left-wing or right-wing municipalities differ in their spending response to exogenous revenue shocks during their legislative term (among oth-ers induced by changes of the personal income tax base assigned to municipalities). Furthermore, we regress on a weighted sample using propensity score weighting to assess the robustness of our results. Thirdly, we replicate a recent approach by Freier et al. (2015) identify-ing the effects of parties voting power on expenditures. Based on all three strategies, we find moderate partisan effects only.

84

SESSION 25

EUROPE’S CHALLENGES (REGIONAL VARIATION AND MIGRATION)

12:15 - 13:45SEMINARRAUM 1 (IBZ)CHAIR: HELGE BRAUN, PH.D

1 WELFARE AND MIGRATION EFFECTS FROM EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: A SPATIAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE SINGLE MARKET AND THE BREXIT

Marcel Henkel (University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany) and Tobias Seidel

We use a quantitative model to study the implications of European integration for welfare and migration flows across 1,328 regions. The model suggests that an increase of trade barriers to the level of 1957 reduces welfare by about 1-2 percent on average, depending on the presumed trade elasticity. However, remote regions may face initial welfare losses of up to 4 percent causing an estimated migration of about 8 million individuals to the European core. This implies that the dismantling of trade barriers in Europe has led to a more homogene-ous spatial distribution of economic activity. With regard to the Brexit, we find moderate welfare losses for the UK of -0.44 percent in the most pessimistic scenario while continental Europe’s welfare declines by 0.18 percent. In the most unfavorable scenario, about 500,000 peo-ple would leave the UK in the long run.

2 FAMILY RETURN MIGRATION

Till Nikolka (ifo Institute, Munich)

This paper investigates the role of family ties in temporary interna-tional migration decisions. Analysis of family return migration from Denmark suggests that schooling considerations are associated with return propensities of immigrant couples with children. Results also show that factors related to children and cultural identity are likely

85

to play a role for return decisions among immigrant families from non-Western countries. Moreover, the paper studies self-selection into return migration regarding the income of the primary earner. Return-ing couples are positively selected on primary earner income. This selection pattern is weaker among dual earner couples and couples with children.

3 OECD ANTI-BRIBERY POLICY AND STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES INSIDE THE EU

Michal Paulus (Charles University Prag) and Eva Michalíková

We propose a novel application of a gravity model of trade as a pol-icy preference mapping tool that reveals areas of potential interest groups formation. We examine a hypothesis that the EU’s inability of the coordinated anti-corruption effort is caused by its internal heter-ogeneity in preferences towards the anti-corruption policy. We focus only on anti-corruption effort of EU members against bribery in for-eign transaction which is reflected in the effectiveness of the enforce-ment of the OECD anti-bribery convention. Using the gravity model of trade, we estimate and compare preferences of western, eastern and Mediterranean EU members towards the enforcement of the con-vention. In addition to the aggregate exports we estimate the model on disaggregated data and examine preferences across trading sec-tors and identify those industries which would support or oppose the anti-corruption policy. To analyse the hypothesis, we estimate a micro-founded augmented gravity model for bilateral exports of 131 countries within period 1995-2013. The results reveal significant dif-ferences between western and eastern EU members when the eastern countries are much more motivated to oppose the policy and to form a strong interest group also on the EU level. The policy preferences of Mediterranean EU members are surprisingly closer to their western partners than to the members from the Central and Eastern Europe. There are also specific sectors which have potential to form a coalition towards the policy across all country groups. We have found out that the country origin (country group to which it belongs) is much better predictor of the policy preferences than the exporting sector.

86

87

LIST OF PRESENTERS

88

SURNAME NAME AFFILIATION

Agnew Kerri Tinity College Dublin

Alaverdyan Sevak Bielefeld Graduate School of Economics and Management

Altermatt Lukas University of Basel

Bizopoulou Aspasia Edinburgh University

Carbonero Francesco IAB Nürnberg

Chugunova Marina University of Hamburg

Ciminelli Gabriele University of Amsterdam

Conze Maximillian University of Bonn

Dahmani Anais Toulouse School of Economics

Dainauskas Justas University of York

Dehos Fabian Ruhr-University Bochum (RGS Econ)

Djuric Uros TU Darmstadt

Fabel Marc Munich Graduate School of Economics

Forster Robert Cardiff University

Fuest Angela Ruhr-University Bochum (RWI)

García-Lázaro Aída J. University of York

Gardberg Malin Erasmus University Rotterdam

Gerhardts Ilka LMU München

Grimm Stefan LMU München

Guber Raphael Munich Center for the Economics of Aging

Henkel Marcel University of Duisburg-Essen

Hergovich Philipp Vienna Graduate School of Economics

Hofbauer Florian University of Würzburg

Hols Christopher University of Bonn

Horvath Marco Ruhr-University Bochum (RGS Econ)

Ihle Dorothee University of Münster

Ingholt Marcus Mølbak University of Copenhagen

Ivets Mryna University of Duisburg-Essen,

Jäger Philipp RWI

Jaimes Richard Tilburg University (CentER)

Janisch Laura Ruhr-University Bochum (RGS Econ)

Jørgensen Kasper Aarhus University

Jung Markos University of Münster

Kahlert Dennis University of Passau

Kerndler Martin University of Vienna

Kocaata Zeki University of Bonn

Kolb Benedikt European University Institute

Kolodlziej Ingo Ruhr-University Bochum (RWI)

89

SURNAME NAME AFFILIATION

Krekel Christian Paris School of Economics

Kriebel Michael University of Münster

Kuld Lukas Trinity College Dublin

Kuvshinov Dmitry University of Bonn

Lahcen Mohammed A�t University of Basel

Link Thomas HHU Düsseldorf

Luo Weijie University of York

Madigu Godfrey Navarra Center for International Development

Martines-Flores Fernanda Ruhr-University Bochum (RWI)

Naghavi Arash University of Konstanz

Naitram Simon University of Glasgow

Nikolka Till ifo Institute

Otto Sven University of Cologne

Pagliari Maria Sole Rutgers University

Paulus Michal Charles University Prag

Petropoulos Georgios Toulouse School of Economics

Picarelli Mattia Osvaldo University of Rome

Picarelli Mattia Osvaldo University of Rome

Pötzsch Christina University of Oldenburg

Pröhl Elisabeth University of Geneva

Raiber Eva Toulouse School of Economics

Sarkisian Roberto Toulouse School of Economics

Schlütter Frank HHU Düsseldorf

Singh Swapnil University of Amsterdam

Sorg Stefan LMU Munich

Sriubaite Ieva University of Duisburg-Essen

Sterzel André HHU Düsseldorf

Teng Yue University of Trento

Tywoniuk Magdalena University of Geneva

Urbschat Florian LMU München

Wagner Valentin HHU Düsseldorf

Weber Christoph University of Erlangen-Nürnberg

Weißler Marco Goethe-University Frankfurt

Westphal Matthias University of Paderborn

Wichert Sebastian LMU München

Wittrock Christian Ruhr-University Bochum (RGS Econ)

Xu Xiu HU Berlin

Zapata Victor University of Bielefeld

90

91

NOTES

CONFERENCE VENUETechnische Universität Dortmund

Internationales Begegnungsszentrum (IBZ) Emil-Figge-Str. 59 44227 Dortmund

CONTACTRuhr Graduate School in Economics

Fon: +49 201 8149-512 info@rgs-econ.de

www.rgs-econ.de