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Energiedialog evb „Vernetzte Energie, vernetztes Leben – Eine Zeitreise in die Zukunft“ Harald Kemmann, Head of Insights & Ideation Beckum, 17. November 2016
vernetzt und/oder autark?
3
Quelle: Amazon: https://www.amazon.de/Amazon-Echo-Dot-Generation-Schwarz/dp/B01DFKBG54/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1474906339&sr=8-2&keywords=echo Google: http://www.areamobile.de/news/38224-google-assistant-googles-neuer-sprachassistent-soll-smart-home-aufmischen Apple: http://www.golem.de/news/konkurrenz-fuer-amazon-echo-apple-baut-angeblich-siri-lautsprecher-1609-123440.html
Vernetztes Leben: Wird so unser Zuhause smart?
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
Konkurrenz für Amazon Echo: Apple baut angeblich Siri-Lautsprecher Apple will angeblich Siri-Lautsprecher bauen. Apple scheint einen Amazon-Echo- und Google-Home-Konkurrenten zu planen.
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
4
Ein kleiner Annäherungsversuch zur Vernetzung von Energie und Mensch …
Quelle: Eigene Vorentwicklung, 2015
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
5
Visionen für Zuhause … im Test mit Partnern.
Quelle: „Visions of Living“ - Unternehmensnetzwerk universal home, 2016
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
TIPPING POINTS – EINE ZEITREISE IN DIE ZUKUNFT
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Quelle: (2017-2018): SmartBook RWE Effizienz GmbH, Tipping Points in der Energiewirtschaft, November 2013; (2018-2027): WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM, Survey Report, September 2015
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
7
2018: (Data)-Storage for all Tipping Points
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
STROM SELBER MACHEN?
9
55.000
78.000
110.000
150.000
200.000
20.000 23.000 32.000 40.000 50.000
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Marktgröße
Zuwachs
Quelle: Zubau-Szenario BSW Solar, Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft eV, 22. Juni 2016
Der Markt für Speicher wächst. Geht’s schneller? Prognose für Deutschland.
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
Tipping Point June 2018
10
Prognose der Li-Ionen-Batteriepreisentwicklung 1), Energiedichte und Zyklenstabilität
Quelle: SmartBook RWE Effizienz 2013 - FOI
1) Systempreis Endkunde
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
11 Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
Preisverfall aus Endkundensicht?
Quelle: http://www.idealo.de/preisvergleich
1 Zelle: 2,75 Ah, 3,7 V = 10,175 Wh 1 kWh: 98,28 Zellen 5,53kg 200 EUR (Endkundenpreis, unverhandelt)
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Heimspeicher: Ein Gedankenexperiment
12
3,9kWh = 8.399,-- € 1) 0,25kWh = 14,99 € 2)
1) Source: RWE Storage Flex http://www.energiewelt.de/web/cms/mediablob/de/2885188/data/2391704/6/energieberatung/solarenergie-photovoltaik/rwe-homepower-storage/batteriespeicher-von-rwe/RWE-Storage-flex-Produktbroschuere.pdf
2) Source: ebay, (Supplier from Shenzhen, China) 50000mAh USB Power Bank http://www.ebay.de/itm/50000mAh-Externer-USB-Ladegeraet-Smartphone-Power-Bank-Zusatzakku-Batterie-Akku-/152164494280?_trksid=p2141725.m3641.l6368
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Heimspeicher 100kWh: Ein Gedankenexperiment
13
26,6 Geräte * 3,9kWh = 100 kWh ≈ 215.359,-- € 1)
1) Source: RWE Storage Flex http://www.energiewelt.de/web/cms/mediablob/de/2885188/data/2391704/6/energieberatung/solarenergie-photovoltaik/rwe-homepower-storage/batteriespeicher-von-rwe/RWE-Storage-flex-Produktbroschuere.pdf
Heimspeicher 100kWh: Ein Gedankenexperiment
14
26,6 Geräte * 3,9kWh = 100 kWh ≈ 215.359,-- € 1) 400 Geräte * 0,25kWh = 100 kWh ≈ 5.996,-- € 2)
1) Source: RWE Storage Flex http://www.energiewelt.de/web/cms/mediablob/de/2885188/data/2391704/6/energieberatung/solarenergie-photovoltaik/rwe-homepower-storage/batteriespeicher-von-rwe/RWE-Storage-flex-Produktbroschuere.pdf
2) Source: ebay, (Supplier from Shenzhen, China) http://www.ebay.de/itm/50000mAh-Externer-USB-Ladegeraet-Smartphone-Power-Bank-Zusatzakku-Batterie-Akku-/152164494280?_trksid=p2141725.m3641.l6368
B2C PV: Selbsterzeugter Strom derzeit bei 8,75 ct/kWh
15
Source: http://www.photovoltaik-angebotsvergleich.de/photovoltaik-kosten Source: http://www.photovoltaiksolarstrom.de/photovoltaik-rechner-online
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
B2C Heimspeicher: Gespeicherter Strom 6,74 ct / kWh
16
Source: https://greenakku.de/Batterien und https://www.tesla.com/de_DE/powerwall und https://www.mercedes-benz.com/de/mercedes-benz-energy/
max depth of discharge
(DOD)
max charging
cycles
gross capacity for
usable 10 kWh B2C price
Storage @ home price in
ct / kWh The next offer will come soon … TESLA Power Wall 2 80% 6600 12,5 kWh 4.445 € 6,74 Blei-Carbon Winner TITAN 80% 4000 12,5 kWh 4.800 € 12 LiFePo4 PYLONTECH 80% 6600 12,5 kWh 8.000 € 15 OPzV Panzerplatten (GEL) 50% 2500 20 kWh 4.800 € 18 OPzS Panzerplatten 50% 2500 20 kWh 4.400 € 17 Mercedes Benz (Accumotive) 80% 6600 12,5 kWh 12.499 € 18,9 Lithium Ionen (NMC) 80% 6600 12,5 kWh 13.200 € 20 AGM Zyklenfest 50% 1000 20 kWh 2.800 € 28 GEL Zyklenfest 50% 1400 20 kWh 4.000 € 28 Typ. Lead-acid 50% 800 20 kWh 2.400 € 30
Speicherkosten – ausgewählte Beispiele
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Zusammenfassung:
17
Storage @ home max depth of discharge
(DOD) max charging
cycles
gross capacity for
usable 10 kWh
B2C price per 10 kWh
Storage @ home price in
ct / kWh Weitere Angebote folgen … ? Heimspeicher (B2C Markt-Angebot) 80% 6600 12,5 kWh 4.445 € 6,74
PV @ home demotion after 20
years
average electricity
production per year and
kWp
electricity production in 20 years per
10 kWp B2C price per
10 kWp
PV @ home price in
ct / kWh Weitere Angebote folgen … ? PV (B2C Markt-Angebot) 80% 790 157800 kWh 13.800 € 8,75
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Strom selber machen?
6,74
8,75 15,49
Storage @ home
Own production
(PV)
No other fees
Total price
0,00
6,44
6,22
3,88
3,54
2,05 1,59
0,60 24,32
Grid levy
VAT EEG levy
Sales margin
Electricity tax
Con- cession
fee
Other fees
Total price
möglicher Strompreis (B2C) (ct/kWh) selbsterzeugter Strom (ct/kWh)
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
EIN BLICK IN DEN WELTWEIT AM SCHNELLSTEN WACHSENDEN OFF-GRID SOLAR-MARKT
EIN BLICK IN DIE ZUKUNFT
EIN BLICK IN DIE ZUKUNFT
Off-grid solar in Africa is in a healthy position
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
TOP 5 of 40 players: 1. Mobisol (> 5MW installed in Tanzania and Rwanda, using drones to deliver parts) 2. M-Kopa (> 330.000 customers in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) 3. Off-Grid Electric (no.1 in Tanzania; 45 Million $ dept refinancing (first-of-its-kind)) 4. Azuri Technologies (HomeSmart technology ‘learns’ the customer’s usage patterns) 5. Nova Lumos (no. 1 in Nigeria; 80W system size “best in class”) “It could cost between $600 and $800 for someone to connect to the national grid.” (Erica Mackey, COO OGE)
Quelle: innogy Innovation Hub, Eigene Recherche, August 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Off-grid solar in Africa: Big Data is alive
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
Quelle: innogy Innovation Hub, Eigene Recherche, August 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
EIN BLICK IN DIE ZUKUNFT
Wir denken und handeln schnell. Mit wollen wir den in einem dynamischen Marktumfeld einnehmen.
radikalen Innovationen Spitzenplatz
25
Die erste Zn-Air Batterie im Einsatz UnConference 22. August 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMfIR1Q0EZc&feature=youtu.be
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
DANK & DISKUSSION.
Kontakt
27
Harald Kemmann
Head of Insights & Ideation T +49 162 2518052 [email protected]
Energiedialog evb, Beckum, 17. November 2016
© Copyright innogy SE / innogy Innovation Hub The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution in or into the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Australia.
Important notice
This document contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the current views, expectations, assumptions and information of the management, and are based on information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements shall not be construed as a promise for the materialisation of future results and developments and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those described in such statements due to, among other things, changes in the general economic and competitive environment, risks associated with capital markets, currency exchange rate fluctuations, changes in international and national laws and regulations, in particular with respect to tax laws and regulations, affecting the Company, and other factors. Neither the Company nor any of its affiliates assume(s) any obligations to update any forward-looking statements.
28 innogy SE · innogy Innovation Hub · October 2016