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EnKF OSSE experiments with HIWRAP radial velocity data: Hurricane Karl (2010) Jason Sippel and ScoG Braun NASAs GSFC Yonghui Weng and Fuqing Zhang PSU

EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

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Page 1: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

EnKF  OSSE  experiments  with  HIWRAP  radial  velocity  data:  Hurricane  Karl  

(2010)  

Jason  Sippel  and  ScoG  Braun  -­‐  NASAs  GSFC  

Yonghui  Weng  and  Fuqing  Zhang  -­‐  PSU  

Page 2: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

•  � � a � � � � � � � � � �–  � UUGO� KS   OH� I r � u� VVqGxH� � wASh� � ht � � � �

� H� ZkGxr � �p I HA� � �–  1� P� wGhHmwr )� � � t � l pm�� 2� S   OG

� pI HA� � � � Si � � �i � � � �S i � � wmEpSi   �� �� �w � B � � � � -­‐u� � � � � � hmAi � � wu��i � � � � � � w�� Smr � H� w� Bh� � 0� a Si � h-­‐�

•  � hhSr Sp�I i   � � mt t p� w� P� pm� SI � h�B� 0   0u� 33G� � �i � � � GV-­‐� � �i � � � � P� wl �Ah� � Ap� � mw� �i �p l vSi   � �� � � � PmwH� d�

•  � m� h� p�w   � � � � � � � � p� P�I mi ��i   p� � BGflqC-­‐� Sr t � � � � SHh� � � � Ah� : �

•  � O� H� �� mAH� mHO� w� � � � � H�: �

� mI P�I mi h2� � Ol � � pm� �p � � a x�� �� x   wmAi � �

flqC�flqC�

Zk0q� xr �

� � � � �   � mr � Hwl �

Page 3: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� mI P�I mi h2� � Ol � � � � G� i � � �•  � � r � � � i h� r � p� � � �p r � i �

EpH� w� B� i � � -­‐� h� HAt � �h � Ah� � �� mw2�–  � � � G33� � � w� �h hSr Sp�I mi � Si �

AwwS� �i � � Ar � � wHm� B� O�i   �� H� �p 0� Uqqku� � � � -­‐�

–  � V� � w� �h hSr Sp�I mi � Si � AwwS� �i � � � � HwSi �� B� � i   � �i � �� O�i   � UqZZu� � � � -­‐�

–  � � i i 0� � H� H� � � i SP� whSHl � � � �w� � pGI r � � � � � J � i � � �

•  � wmP� i � hA� � � hh� Apu� � P� i � a SHO�� Sn � ApH� hHmwr h�

� �� x   wmAi � �

Ar � � wHm2� � � h� Ph0� � i � � � �i �p l hSh�

Page 4: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

ObjecUves  1.  Generate  a  48-­‐h  ensemble  without  data  assimilaUon  

2.  Perform  observaUon  system  simulaUon  experiments(OSSEs)  by  assimilaUng  simulated  HIWRAP  observaUons  with  an  ensemble  Kalman  filter  (EnKF)  

3.  Assess  quality  of  analyses  and  establish  benchmark  variability  due  to  random  observaUon  error  

4.  Evaluate  forecasts  iniUalized  from  analyses  and  compare  of  different  GH  tracks,  etc.  (eventually  compare  with  P3  and  other  simulated  data)  

Page 5: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � � G� i � � � hl hH� r �

•  � i � � � � wmr � � O�i   � � H� �p 0� BUqqk-­‐� �

•  � � � G� � � � � V0Z0Zu� U, JkJV� xr �

•  VqGr � r � � w� � i h� r � p� � fi� Z�1HwAHO)� r � r � � wu� � J � � h� � wmr �� � � G� � � � fi� � � � �

•  i SI �p Sv� � � � H� qq� � � � � ZU�� � t H� r � � wu� Si H�   w� H� � � ZU� O�Hm�   � i � w� H� � r � hmh� � p� �� mP�wS�i � � �

•  � � � � � � u� � � � GU� r t �

� i � � � � wmr � � O�i   � � H� �p 0� BUqqk-­‐� �

� � � G� � � � � V0Z0Zu� U, JkJV� xr �

� � HOm� h�

� m� � p� � mr �S i h�

Page 6: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � p� � I i   � HO� � 1HwAHO)�

• � � � � � � i h� r � p� � � �t HAw� h� � u�� AH� m� h� wP� � � Si H� i hSHl � � � � �ht � i i � � � B � � t wm� p� r -­‐�

•  1� wAHO)� t S� x� � � Hm� w� t w� h� i H�� �wp)h� � � �i � � w� wAi � a SHO� � � � � �r t � Hm� �� � mAi H� � mw� r m� � p�� wwmw� �

•  � � � � � r � �i � Hw�� x� �   w� � h�a � pp� a SHO� HwAHOu� hm� a � )pp� � m� Ah�mi � Si H� i hSHl �

� � p� � I i   � HO� � 1HwAHO)�� � HOm� h�

� PmpAI mi � m� � m� h� wP� � u� 1HwAHO)u� �i � � � � � � � r Si � � � �

� � h� wP� � u� 1HwAHO)u� �i � � � � � � � Hw�� x�

Page 7: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

1� wAHO)� hSr Ap�I mi � KS   OH� Hw�� xh�

•  i hH� i H�i � mAh� h� �i h� � P� wl � NU3�xr (� m� h� wP�I mi � � mi � h� hpS   OHpl �mP� wp� t � � H� hAw� �� � � �

•  � � H��   wmAt � � � Si Hm� ZGO� KS   OH�h�   r � i Hh� � wmr � h�r � � mAHt AH� I r � �

•  � i pl � � hhSr Sp� H� � a O� i � � R � i A� H� � �� � � � f � Zq�

•  � � hH� U� � AR � wKl � KS   OH� t �R � wi h�

� � HOm� h�

flqC�flqC�

N� V� xr �

N� V� xr �

Zk0q�xr �

� � h� wP�I mi h�� P� wl � NV� xr � mi �� mi � � hAw� �� � �

Page 8: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � � � � � i �p l hSh�� � � � � � � hApHh�

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ( e� � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ( e� � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� mr t �wShmi � m� � HwAHOu� � m� � � � �i � � � � � � � i � � � �i �p l hSh� � H� U6� Ou� �F � w� ZV� O� m� � �h hSr Sp�I mi �

Page 9: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � � � � � i �p l hSh�� � � � � � � hApHh�

� � hApHh2� � � � � � i �p l hSh�

•  � hhSr Sp�I mi � s AS� xpl � � wSi   h�hHmwr � � � i H� wh� Hm� i � � w� HO� �m� h� wP� � � pm� �I mi � �

•  � Si � � � � �p hm� � wmA   OH� Hma �w � h�1HwAHO)u� � P� i HA�p pl � Hmm� hHwmi   �� AH� hI pp� � � R � w� HO�i � � � � � �

� w� � x� Si � 1HwAHO)u� � � � � � � i hu� �i � � � � � � � i � � �

� Si � � � � Si � 1HwAHO)u� � � � � � � i h� �i � � � � � � � i � � �� Si � � � � Si � 1HwAHO)u� � � � � � � i h� �i � � � � � � � i � � �

Page 10: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � i �p l hSh� h� i hSI PSHl �� � � � � � � hApHh�

•  � r �p p� w� ht w� �� �a SHO� hr �p p� w�m� h� wP�I mi � � wwmw�

•  � �wS� � p� Gp�   � Hw�� x�h� � r h� Hm� t wm� A� � �hpS   OHpl � r mw� ��� � Aw� H� � � i �p l h� h�r Si � � � � B� w� s A� i H�h�r t pSi   � m� �� � i H� w-­‐�

� Si � � � � Si � P�wSmAh� �i �p l h� h� Si � � mr t �wShmi � a SHO� � � � �

Page 11: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � i �p l hSh� h� i hSI PSHl �� � � � � � � hApHh�

� � hApHh2� � i �p l hSh� h� i hSI PSHl �

� w� � x� Si � P�wSmAh� �i �p l h� h� Si � � mr t �wShmi � a SHO� � � � �

Page 12: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � i �p l hSh� � wwmw� w� � A� I mi �� � � � � � � hApHh�

•  � � � � �i �p l h� h� hHwmi   pl �w� � A� � h� � � G� � � � m� � � � ��F � w� ZV� � l � p� h� B� � � � D�q0fl� M� BAoAo� fi� PoPo� fi� � t J � w�M� � o� o-­‐u� t wSr � � Sh�� S � w� i � � � � wmr � HwAHO-­‐�

•  � �wS� � p� Gp�   � Hw�� x�w� � A� � h� � P� w�   � � � wwmw�r mw� � i � �w � � � i H� w� � AH�p� hh� Si � mAH� w� t �wHh� m� �� Sw� Ap� I mi �

� w

� mr t �wShmi � m� � � � G� � � � � S � w� i � � h�

Page 13: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � � H� wr Si ShI � � � � hH� � � �� � � � � � � hApHh�

•  � mi hS� � w�� p� � ht w� �� � � A� � Hm� ZG� l � p� � m� � � S � w� i H� w�i � mr �m� h� wP�I mi � � wwmw(� � � � w� �h � h� �F � w� r �i l � � l � p� h�

•  ZU� O� m� � � l � pSi   � h� � r h� Hm� � � � r A� O� r mw� � � � i � E� S�p � HO�i � U� O�

•  � � ht SH� � � � R � w� �i �p l h� h� m� � � mw� � �i � � r Si � � � u� P� wS�� p� Gp�   �Hw�� x� � m� h� � � � � t wm� A� � � �� � � R � w� � mw� � �h H� Br � l � � � a mwh� : -­‐�

� � H� wr Si ShI � � � mw� � �h Hh� m� � r Si � � � 2� �� � mr t �wShmi � m� � � m� � � � �i � � � � � � dt � wSr � i Hh� �i � �h� i hSI PSHl � Hm� mi � � � l � p� � m� � � S � w� i H� m� h� wP�I mi � � wwmw�

Hw�� x� � m� h� � � � � t wm� A� � � �� � � R � w� � mw� � �h H� Br � l � � � a mwh� : -­‐�

� � H� wr Si ShI � � � mw� � �h Hh� m� � r Si � � � 2� �� � mr t �wShmi � m� � � m� � � � �i � � � � � � dt � wSr � i Hh� �i � �h� i hSI PSHl � Hm� mi � � � l � p� � m� � � S � w� i H� m� h� wP�I mi � � wwmw�

Page 14: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � i h� r � p� � � � hH� � � �� � � � � � � hApHh�

•  � S   i SE� �i H� � i h� r � p� � � mw� � �h H� � S � w� i � � h� w� hApH� � wmr �� O�i   Si   � Z� � l � p� � m� � w�i � mr � m� h� wP�I mi � � wwmw�

•  ZU� O� m� � � l � pSi   � �   �S i � r mw� � � � i � E� S�p � HO�i � U� O�

•  � �wS� � p� Gp�   � t �R � wi � � m� h� i mH� w� hApH� Si � � � R � w� � mw� � �h Hh�� � H� wr Si ShI � � � mw� � �h Hh� m� �r Si � � � 2� �� � mr t �wShmi � m� � � m�� � � �i � � � � � � dt � wSr � i Hh� �i � �h� i hSI PSHl � Hm� mi � � � l � p� � m� �� S � w� i H� m� h� wP�I mi � � wwmw�

Page 15: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

� � hApHh2� � i h� r � p� � � � hH� Hw�� x�� � � � � � � hApHh�

� i h� r � p� � � mw� � �h Hh�Si SI � pSv� � � � wmr � � � � ��i � pl h� h� a SHO�� mww� ht mi � Si   � � Sw� p� h�� i � pmhSi   � flq’ � �i � � kq’ �m� � �p p� hHmwr h� � H� 6U� O�

•  � m� Sr t wmP� r � i H� Si � r � �i � Hw�� x� � A� � Hm� Si SI �p � OS   O��� � Aw�� l � � AH� ht w� �� � Sh� � mi hShH� i Hpl � w� � A� � � �

Page 16: EnKFOSSEexperimentswithHIWRAP radialvelocitydata:HurricaneKarl (2010) · 2011. 12. 20. · (2010) JasonSippelandScoBraunNASAs% GSFC Yonghui %WengandFuqing ZhangPSU ... AwwS˝ i ˚

Summary  +  Future  Work  

•  HIWRAP  data  appears  to  be  useful  for  EnKF  analyses  of  a  hurricane  

•  Forecasts  aser  13  cycles  (12  h  of  assimilaUon)  are  considerably  more  accurate  and  less  sensiUve  to  random  observaUon  error  than  are  forecasts  aser  7  cycles  (6  h)  

•  Including  a  short-­‐leg  buGerfly  paGern  with  the  long-­‐leg  paGern  improves  the  analysis  in  the  inner  core  but  degrades  it  farther  out;  thus  there  is  no  forecast  improvement    

•  Need  to  further  examine  sensiUvity  (examine  effect  of  ob.  error,  DA  start  Ume,  etc)  and  compare  to  assimilaUng  other  data  

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•  � � � Aww� � � � AwSi   � � � � � h�� � i � hSh� �i � � � �t S� � i H� i hSE� �I mi � � wm� � hh� h�B� � � -­‐� � �r t �S   i � m� � UqZq�

•  � pm� �p � � a x� BUq� � l � � t �h h� h-­‐u�� � G3u� � � fl, u� � � � � 6Uu� � � � � 6ku�� � G� ZVq� m� h� wP�I mi h� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

•  � t � w�I mi �p � r m� � p� t wm� p� r h�Si SI �p SvSi   � PmwH� d�

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