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EnKF OSSE experiments with HIWRAP radial velocity data: Hurricane Karl
(2010)
Jason Sippel and ScoG Braun -‐ NASAs GSFC
Yonghui Weng and Fuqing Zhang -‐ PSU
• � � a � � � � � � � � � �– � UUGO� KS OH� I r � u� VVqGxH� � wASh� � ht � � � �
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• � hhSr Sp�I i � � mt t p� w� P� pm� SI � h�B� 0 0u� 33G� � �i � � � GV-‐� � �i � � � � P� wl �Ah� � Ap� � mw� �i �p l vSi � �� � � � PmwH� d�
• � m� h� p�w � � � � � � � � p� P�I mi ��i p� � BGflqC-‐� Sr t � � � � SHh� � � � Ah� : �
• � O� H� �� mAH� mHO� w� � � � � H�: �
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AwwS� �i � � Ar � � wHm� B� O�i �� H� �p 0� Uqqku� � � � -‐�
– � V� � w� �h hSr Sp�I mi � Si � AwwS� �i � � � � HwSi �� B� � i � �i � �� O�i � UqZZu� � � � -‐�
– � � i i 0� � H� H� � � i SP� whSHl � � � �w� � pGI r � � � � � J � i � � �
• � wmP� i � hA� � � hh� Apu� � P� i � a SHO�� Sn � ApH� hHmwr h�
� �� x wmAi � �
Ar � � wHm2� � � h� Ph0� � i � � � �i �p l hSh�
ObjecUves 1. Generate a 48-‐h ensemble without data assimilaUon
2. Perform observaUon system simulaUon experiments(OSSEs) by assimilaUng simulated HIWRAP observaUons with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)
3. Assess quality of analyses and establish benchmark variability due to random observaUon error
4. Evaluate forecasts iniUalized from analyses and compare of different GH tracks, etc. (eventually compare with P3 and other simulated data)
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� � hApHh2� � i h� r � p� � � � hH� Hw�� x�� � � � � � � hApHh�
� i h� r � p� � � mw� � �h Hh�Si SI � pSv� � � � wmr � � � � ��i � pl h� h� a SHO�� mww� ht mi � Si � � Sw� p� h�� i � pmhSi � flq’ � �i � � kq’ �m� � �p p� hHmwr h� � H� 6U� O�
• � m� Sr t wmP� r � i H� Si � r � �i � Hw�� x� � A� � Hm� Si SI �p � OS O��� � Aw�� l � � AH� ht w� �� � Sh� � mi hShH� i Hpl � w� � A� � � �
Summary + Future Work
• HIWRAP data appears to be useful for EnKF analyses of a hurricane
• Forecasts aser 13 cycles (12 h of assimilaUon) are considerably more accurate and less sensiUve to random observaUon error than are forecasts aser 7 cycles (6 h)
• Including a short-‐leg buGerfly paGern with the long-‐leg paGern improves the analysis in the inner core but degrades it farther out; thus there is no forecast improvement
• Need to further examine sensiUvity (examine effect of ob. error, DA start Ume, etc) and compare to assimilaUng other data
• � � � Aww� � � � AwSi � � � � � h�� � i � hSh� �i � � � �t S� � i H� i hSE� �I mi � � wm� � hh� h�B� � � -‐� � �r t �S i � m� � UqZq�
• � pm� �p � � a x� BUq� � l � � t �h h� h-‐u�� � G3u� � � fl, u� � � � � 6Uu� � � � � 6ku�� � G� ZVq� m� h� wP�I mi h� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
• � t � w�I mi �p � r m� � p� t wm� p� r h�Si SI �p SvSi � PmwH� d�
• i H� i hSHl � � mw� � �h Hh� hHAi xyyy�Bflfl� r t O� G � VU� O� D� � � � V� Ph� � � -‐�
� � � � � � � � � �
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� � � � G� � � � �