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Google Confidential and Proprietary 1 Internet Trends

Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

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Page 1: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 1

Internet Trends

Page 2: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 2

„Einkaufen per Internet bleibt ein nettes,

kleines Zusatzgeschäft.“

Quote “Deutschland 2010” (published 2001)

Horst W. Opaschowski “Deutschland 2010”, (2001)

Page 3: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 3

Technology Drives Consumer Trends

Page 4: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 4

Moore‟s Law

Page 5: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 5

New Devices

Page 6: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 6

Better Networks

Page 7: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 7

Technology results in Consumer Trends

Social

(3 C‘s)Mobile

Local

Trends

Page 8: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 8

Social

Page 9: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 9

I. Connecting

Source: Google Insights for Search, Switzerland

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Page 10: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 10

Millions of minutes (August 2008)

comScore / Nielsen

Face

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Frien

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Page 11: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 11

Millions of minutes (August 2008)

comScore / Nielsen

Face

bo

ok

Be

bo

Mysp

ace

Frien

ds R

eu

nite

d

Win

dow

s L

ive

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2407 413 320 43 22

364 251 70 50 45

Skyro

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ke

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Ja

pp

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745 604 143 130 105

Netlog

Win

dow

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ace

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Face

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Mysp

ace

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o183 176 145 122 120

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Page 12: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 12

The winner takes it all…?

1.3324.607Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10

source: Nielsen NetView

Unique User Germany

(Ø net reach)

3.393

2.548 2.417Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10

1.332k

4.607k

15.446k

2.548k 2.417k

3.393k

Page 13: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 13

Page 14: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 14

II. Contribution

source: Google Insights for Search, Switzerland

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Page 15: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 15

What Twitter is not…

Page 16: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 16

If the Twitter community would be 100 users…

David McCandless // www.visualizedthebook.com //v1.2

Page 17: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 17

“Few” is enough…

Page 18: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 18

III. Creation

source: Google Insights for Search, Switzerland

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Page 19: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 1919

How much People create on YouTube

Page 20: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 2020

20

TV vs. Online Usage (Min. per Day - Index)

Index

187%

43%

23%

100%100% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

TV light TV medium TV heavy

TV usage

Online usage

• „TV light user“ use video websites more intense while social networking sites

are frequently used by TV heavy users

Index Social Networking: 78

Index Video Websites: 121

source: GfK Media Efficiency Panel, Germany, TV light =lowest 25%, TV heavy= highest 25%, TV medium= 50%

Page 21: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 21

YT vs. FB: Less Overlap than expected…?

(exclusive)Unique User Facebook:767.000

(exclusive) Unique user

YouTube: 532.000

Overlap:1.207.000

source: Nielsen NetView, Switzerland

Total YouTube + Facebook= 2.506.000 = 65% of CH online population

Page 22: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 22

Paid Media

(online & offline advertising...)

Earned Media

(WOM, social media, tweets...)

Owned Media

(website, Facebook fan site...)

The New Media Mix

Page 23: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 23

Mobile

Page 24: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 242424

xxx

• xxx

Page 25: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 2525

Smartphone= Short online sessions

82%of „Smart Natives“ use their Smartphone for

amusement during a break

Page 26: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 2626

Usage Patterns will be very different

25% of all Android 2.0+

searches come from voice in

the US -

although voice search is less

than 12 months old!

Page 27: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 27

Local

Page 28: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 28

Mobile Drives Local

Page 29: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 29

Of all regular internet users in Switzerland…

Question: Thinking about online shopping to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

I see a product via mobile internet and buy it spontaneously in a store

nearby

I find informationabout a product on the go and try to find out

more directly via mobile internet

Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010

9%18%

Page 30: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 30

The Internet in the Decision Process

Page 31: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 31

Multi Channel

Online Research Offline Purchase

Research Online, Purchase Offline (ROPO) / Online2Store (O2S)

→ Statistical Evidence…?

Page 32: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 32

Level 1: Self-Reported Data

Page 33: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 33

www.consumerbarometer.com

Page 34: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 34

Hotels: Most Purchases Start in the Internet

Out of 10 CH customers...

... 5 buy online

...8 search the internet before...

Research online ?

Buy online ?

yes no

yes

78% 21%

54% 23%

no

Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010

Page 35: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 35

ROPO Effect – Online has more Value

35

Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010

• In other words: Online Marketing influences 43% more Hotel bookings than

the online conversion tracking will suggest

100%

43%

Research Online,

Purchase Online

Research Online,

Purchase Offline

Total Online

Research Effect

ROPO

OnlineBooking

Page 36: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 36

Online Conversion vs. ROPO Effect

7%

13%12%

9%

2%

19%

32%

18%26%

3%

35%37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Digital

Camera/Camcorder

Computer Software /

Video games

Package Holidays CDs / DVDs Health products Event tickets

Purchase Online Research Online Purchase Offline (ROPO)

• Across all products a significant number of CH consumers research online

before purchasing offline

Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010

Page 37: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 37

Information Sources in Research Process

37

• Search engines are the most commonly used type of website for online

research, followed by manufacturer sites

Websites Used for Online Research

Base: Onliner

Question: Thinking in general, what sorts of websites do you use in researching purchases you make either online or elsewhere e.g. in a store / agency / showroom / phone, etc.

Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010

1%

2%

3%

4%

7%

8%

12%

30%

33%

40%

47%

55%

71%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Microblogs

Blogs

Financial

Bulletin Boards

Social Networking

Video Portals

ConsumerReviews

Mapping

Online auction

Price Comparison

Retailer

Manufacturer

Search Engines

Page 38: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 38

Page 39: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 39

Level 2: Observational Data

Page 40: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 40Source: GfK MEP Germany; basis: product buyer

Online Conversion vs. ROPO Effect

38% 49%

29%

48%29%

37%

11%16% 15%20% 22%

10%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

all products banking insurance fashion broadband mobile

Purchase Online Research Online Purchase Offline (ROPO)

• Key question: How much does online research process influence the offline

purchase?

Page 41: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 41

Kerstin*, female, 28 years, employed

6. Offline contract at R+V:

Car insurance

Reason: cheap tarif, well-

known and trusted insurance

company

15.11.2009*

5. Visit on check24.de (time

spent: 13:55 min)

08.11.2009

1. Google search „allianz

versicherung“

2. Visit on allianz.de (time

spent: 2:47 min)

3. Google search „r-v

versicherung“

4. Visit on ruv.de (time spent:

12:47 min)

19.10.2009

Key metrics for Kerstin’s* research process

- 2 Google queries

- 3 (unique) domains, 18 sites in total, total time spent: 29:39 min.

- ROPO

* not real name

Monitor Online Behaviour Prior to Offline Purchase

Page 42: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 42

Media Efficiency Panel (MEP)

Demographics:

• gender, age, income etc.

• mail address

→ match with client database

Media usage:

• web usage measured

→ website visits

→ ad impressions (display & AW)

→ ad clicks

• TV measured

• media questionnaire

→ Print, Radio, (outdoor)

Sales:

• CPG purchases

→ ongoing

• other vertical purchases

→ quaterly

→ Travel, Finance, Tech, Retail

1 2 3

Page 43: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 43

43

Duration of Online Research Process

• Duration of online research process is similarly long for online and offline

buyers

37.235

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Online-Käufer Offline-Käufer (ROPO)

days

online buyer offline buyer

37 days35 days

Page 44: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 44

Number of Unique Domains

3,03,6 3,7

1,82,5

3,6

4,8

4,0

2,3

4,2

5,2

3,5

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

all products banking insurance fashion broadband mobile

online buyer offline buyer

• Variety of websites visited during research process are directionally similar

for online and offline buyers

Ssource: GfK MEP; basis: product buyer who researched online

Page 45: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 45

45

13% branded searches

prior to mobile

contract

69%branded searches

prior to fashion

purchase

Brand vs. Generic Terms

• Share of brand/ generic keywords varies strongly between categories

Page 46: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 46

Number of Search Queries

7,6

10,9

7,0

2,94,9

12,1

7,19,2

4,7

11,5

19,9

3,00,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

16,0

20,0

all products banking insurance fashion broadband mobile

online buyer offline buyer

• ROPO consumers enter a significant number of search queries prior to

purchase

Ssource: GfK MEP; basis: product buyer who searched online

Page 47: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 47

Got it, online research process of ROPO‟s is as

impactful as for online buyers BUT…

… how many of my offline sales actually orginate

from the web?

Page 48: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 48

Level 3: Attribution

Page 49: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 4949

Inbound calls hotline:

Consumer sign contract on

the phone or request contract

proposal

Product website w/ number:

A dedicated hotline number

appears for users who came

on the website via AdWords

Google AdWords:

Consumer searches for an

insurance product, e.g.

“health insurance”

Call Tracking

Page 50: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 5050Source: KQV

Contracts through AdWords (Online & Offline)

• Tracking via the “AdWords” Hotline number shows: With each 100 contracts

online, AdWords generates another 18 offline contracts in the call centre.

100%

18%

118%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Online Contracts AdWords Offline Contracts AdWords

(ROPO)

Total Contracts AdWords

Index contracts

Call Tracking: Example

Page 51: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 5151

Index ROPO Uplift: Online Conversions = 100%

• Online2Store effect differs by advertiser (e.g. website quality), product (e.g.

complexity of the offer) and -perhaps- by market

11% 14% 18%40%

100%

254%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Travel Finance Finance Telco Telco Finance

Index contracts

Call Tracking: Benchmarking

Page 52: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 52

Google Tracking Solutions In Progress

52

Call Metrics (coming soon)

Click2Call (launched)

Page 53: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 53

Level 4: Modeling

Page 54: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 54

Modeling = Correlation over Time

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan.

04

Apr.

04

Jul. 0

4

Okt.

04

Jan.

05

Apr.

05

Jul. 0

5

Okt.

05

Jan.

06

Apr.

06

Jul. 0

6

Okt.

06

Jan.

07

Apr.

07

Jul. 0

7

Okt.

07

Jan.

08

Apr.

08

Jul. 0

8

Okt.

08

Jan.

09

Apr.

09

Jul. 0

9

Okt.

09

Jan.

10

Apr.

10

Jul. 1

0

Okt.

10

Sales

Medium y

Medium x

Page 55: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 5555

Base

SalesSeasonality Regular

pricePrice

promotion

TV

Advertising Catalogues PressRadio &

OOHOther Web traffic to

pccity.es

42%

12%

8%

2%

5%

15%

11%

3%1% 1%

Spain - PC City: Drivers of offline sales

62% of PC City sales are non

marketing drivers

38% of PcCity sales are

influenced by Marketing

Base sales volume

includes influence from

existing store network,

employee workforce,

existing infrastructure

distribution, seasonality,

underlying consumer

demand etc..

The Website is responsible for 11% of offline revenue

Page 56: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 56

€1.40

56

Paid Search

9%

Catalogues

42%Outdoor

3%

Press3%

TV43%

Last year 23 Aug – 11 Oct 2009 (8 weeks) Optimal Mix for 24th Aug – 12 Oct 2010 (8 weeks)

Marketing ROI Marketing ROI€1.10

With the same budget a more optimal mix delivers an 6% revenue

Media Mix Optimization by PC City

Paid Search

1%

Catalogue

32%

Outdoor

1%Press2%

TV64%

Page 57: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 575757

France: Auchan

Page 58: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 58

Level 5: Experiment

Page 59: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 59

Test vs. control region:

• Compare revenue

development in test region

(w/ [increased] AdWords spendings)

vs. control region (w/ normal

or lower spend level)

• Requires control of other

sales drivers and similar

buyer structure.Test region

Control region

Experiment: Geo Test

Page 60: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 60

Lawn mower Bicycle

Source: hagebau April - June 2009

100% 95%106%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Index 2008 control markets

2009

test markets

2009

100%89%

96%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Index 2008 control markets

2009

test markets 2009

• Due to AdWords campaign revenue development in test markets was much

better than in control markets

Δ +11ppts

Index revenue

development

Index revenue

development

Δ +7ppts

Experiment: Home Improvement Store

Page 61: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 616161

Experiment UK: Vodafone

Page 62: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 626262

Experiment UK: Vodafone

Page 63: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 63

Branding

Page 64: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 64

User googles after being exposed to your TV Spot...

Page 65: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 65

... will search impact user„s brand perception?

Page 66: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 6666

Brands Other partnersAgencies

Research vendors

Research Project: Germany

Page 67: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 67

Study Design: Task based Experiment

1 2 3 4

TV ad experiment:

3.012 respondents had contact

to six TV ads on their PC. The

commercial break was not

integrated in an editorial design

Online Task:

Following the panellists were

asked to research online for the

advertised product category. The

respondent had the choice how to

solve the given task – they were

not forced to use a search engine

Search Experiment

of the SERP: Experimental

control of the exposure of search

results. Random assignment of

the respondents to the control/

test cells

Questionnaire:

Survey about the brand

perception

The effect of TV as well as

SEM can be analysed through

the comparison of the test and

control group

DIGITALCAMERA

You would like to get more

information about the newest

digital camera. Please find a

camera that is new on the

market.

Please do not use price

comparison sites. Apart from

this, search as you normally

research online

67

Page 68: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 68

52% used Google: Controlled SERP

AdWords of test

brand

Organic result of

the test brand

AdWords of control

brand

68

Page 69: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 69

Brand Awareness → Unaided brand awareness

Brand Funnel Variable

Image

Relevance

Loyalty

69

Brand funnel – Analysis of 4 parameters

→ Image

→ Relevant Set

→ Recommendation

Page 70: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 7070

Unaided brand awareness

• SEM raises the effect of a TV campaign – the unaided brand awareness

increases by 22%.

Index Unaided brand awareness

Aggregated result for 4 brands

Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,704Question: Which [brand] do you know,?

Page 71: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 71

Unaided brand awareness

71

Index Unaided brand awareness

Aggregated result for 4 brands

• TV in combination with SEO and SEA increases the unaided brand awareness

of a brand by 28% compared to „TV Only“.

Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,704Question: Which [brand] do you know,?

Page 72: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 7272

Index Unaided brand awareness

Aggregated result for 4 brands

• The impression to AdWords only has also a significant effect

Unaided brand awareness

Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,014Question: Which [brand] do you know,?

Page 73: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 73

Competitor effect

Test brand

Competitor

100

100

Both brands do

not advertise

97

147134

120

163

139

Test brand

runs TV ad

Only competitor

runs AdWords

Test brand also runs

AdWords

73

• A TV campaign that is not accompanied with a search campaign increases the

awareness of the competitor.

Index Unaided brand awareness (Base: Non user)

Aggregated result for 4 brands

Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,330Question: Which [brand] do you know,?

Page 74: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 74

Relevance

Δ16ppts

Δ36ppts

74

• The effect of AdWords increases in evidence after a contact in TV – 1+1=3!

Index Relevance

Aggregated result for 4 brands

Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1.366; TV and AdWords Base: n=1.704Question: Which [brand] would you consider, when you would purchase [product]?

Page 75: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 75

Conclusion by media agencies

40%

4%8%2%9%

11%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total

campaign keywords

relevant keywords, not in campaign

usage of other search enginesdirect URL of the company

other keywords, not in campaign

other websites

websites of other manufacturers

75

• Campaign keyword list should have been 10% longer

Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=12.048

Page 76: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 76

Coming back to the example...

Page 77: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 77

... have a look if your strategies are aligned!

Page 78: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 78

Summary

Page 79: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

1. The internet is still growing

and offers unique

opportunities: It‟s not a

case of online or offline

2. Internet is more than just

the click: Stop thinking &

measuring in silos

3. Test! Learn! Have fun!

Striking the balance

Page 80: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 80

www.full-value-of-search.de

Page 81: Google CH - Internet trends (daniel meyer)

Google Confidential and Proprietary 81

Thank You!

Q&A