Handout PM Englisch

8/11/2019 Handout PM Englisch

1/77

Project ManagementBasics

Seminar

Manfred Gutheins


2/77

!Manfred Gutheins 2013 2

Copyright Manfred Gutheins, 2013All rights reserved.

Reprint and reproduction only withwritten permission of the author


3/77



4/77


5/77


Effective Organization of Meetings ...................................................................................................... 38Status Report .......................................................................................................................................... 39Case study: Trade fair attendance of FleetSolutions Inc. ....................................................................... 40

The company ....................................................................................................................................... 40Case study: Project charter ..................................................................................................................... 41Case study: Stakeholder register ............................................................................................................ 42Case study: Communications Plan ......................................................................................................... 44Case study: Requirements ...................................................................................................................... 45Case study: Scope description ................................................................................................................ 47Case study: Work Breakdown Structure - WBS ...................................................................................... 48Case study: Work package description ................................................................................................... 49Case study: Schedule (extract) ............................................................................................................... 50Case study: Cost plan ............................................................................................................................. 51Case study: Risk register ........................................................................................................................ 52Case study: Cost monitoring ................................................................................................................... 53Case study: Status report ........................................................................................................................ 54Exercise: What are projects? .................................................................................................................. 55Example project: Stadt-Bus AG .............................................................................................................. 56Exercise: Writing a project charter .......................................................................................................... 57Stadt-Bus AG Organizational Chart ........................................................................................................ 58Exercise: Identifying the stakeholders ..................................................................................................... 59Template: Stakeholder Register .............................................................................................................. 60Exercise: Describing the project scope and content ............................................................................... 61 Template: Scope Statement .................................................................................................................... 62Exercise: Work Breakdown Structure ..................................................................................................... 63Exercise: Describing work packages ...................................................................................................... 64Template: Work Package ........................................................................................................................ 65Exercise: How well can you estimate? .................................................................................................... 66Exercise: Analogous Estimating .............................................................................................................. 67Exercise: Three Point Estimating ............................................................................................................ 68Exercise: Parametric Estimation ............................................................................................................. 69Exercise: Drafting a schedule ................................................................................................................. 70Exercise: Quality Metrics ......................................................................................................................... 71Exercise: Risk planning ........................................................................................................................... 72Exercise: Milestone-Trend-Analyse ........................................................................................................ 73Exercise: Earned Value ........................................................................................................................... 74Exercise: RACI-Chart .............................................................................................................................. 75Exercise: Project communication ............................................................................................................ 76Exercise: Status report ............................................................................................................................ 77


6/77


Definition of a Project

There are various definitions of a project:

PMI Project Management Institute

A temporary endeavour undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result.

The German DIN 69901 defines the characteristics of a project as follows:

! Project-specific organization

! Uniqueness

! Set target

! Isolation from other endeavours

! Financial, personnel or other limits

! Time limit

Project management is a method of reaching goals. The basic idea of project management is to break a

complex task down into small subtasks; to plan and monitor their execution, possibly taking corrective

action. In the process, work is completed with the focus on results, and on what deliverables a project is

supposed to produce, and what partial results lead to these deliverables.


7/77


Project Management

The magic project management triangle

There are three factors that you as project leader must keep an eye on above all, and these are oftenillustrated in the magic project management triangle.

Figure 1: The magic project management triangle

It is often possible to optimize one of the factors at the cost of the other two. For example, you can keep

a timeline by leaving something out of the end result or by delivering poor quality; or by improving

performance with the help of expensive specialists. Mostly, however, it isnt possible to optimize all

three factors at the same time, and the job mainly consists of keeping a balance between all three.

Project Management Knowledge Areas

The PMI defines nine Knowledge Areas, beyond the project management triangle, that belong to project

management:

! Project Integration Management

! Project Scope Management

! Project Time Management

! Project Cost Management

! Project Quality Management

! Project Human Resource Management

! Project Communications Management

! Project Risk Management

!

Project Procurement Management

History of Project Management

Throughout human history there have always been projects. Project management methods were first

used in the middle of the 20th century with the construction of the Hoover Dam, and with the Manhattan

Project (development of the atom bomb in the USA).

Project management is gaining ever more in importance today. The reasons, amongst other things, are:

! Markets are changing ever faster.

! Hierarchies have become flatter.

! Globalization.

! Projects are getting more complex.

!"#$ %& ' (

)*&+$

!"#$ %& ' (

)*&+$


8/77


Project Organization

Project organization is temporary and exists only for the duration of the project.

Stakeholders

People or organizations that are either directly involved in, or can be affected by, the project are called

stakeholders.

The most important stakeholders in a project are:

! Project leader

! Sponsor

! Project team

!

Other stakeholders are e.g. (list not comprehensive):

! Customer! Management

! Project Management team

! Sales

! Other departments

! QA (Quality Assurance)

! Outsiders affected by the project.

Figure 2: Stakeholders


9/77


Project Life Cycle

Projects typically go through a process with the following structure.

Figure 3: Project Life Cycle

During this process, the project generates deliverables, like e.g. the project charter, project

management plan etc, in Figure 3.

The size of the project team usually changes during the life cycle and is at its biggest during the

execution of the project.

Figure 4: Staffing Level

Different projects and different types of projects can differ greatly in their detail. But basically, they

mostly follow this typical process.

Cost of error correction

The longer the time span between the introduction and the discovery of an error, the more expensive it

is to correct. Any ambiguity in the specification, if discovered during the review, can be corrected with

little effort. Conversely, if this ambiguity leads to different team members interpreting the specification

differently, and thus implementing the various project parts differently; and furthermore, if this is only

discovered towards the end of the project, the damage is probably many times greater.

Therefore you should check all work results as soon as possible, e.g. through reviews already during

initiating and planning.

Starting

Organizing

+

Preparing

Carrying out the work

Closing

the

Project

!"#$%&'

( )*"'%"

!"#$%&'

+*,*-%.%,'!/*,

0&&%1'%2

3%/45%"*6/%7

0"&)45%2

!"#$%&'3#&8.%,'7

Starting

Organizing

+

Preparing

Carrying out the work

Closing

the

Project

!"#$%&'

( )*"'%"

!"#$%&'

+*,*-%.%,'!/*,

0&&%1'%2

3%/45%"*6/%7

0"&)45%2

!"#$%&'3#&8.%,'7

Start

Organizing

+Preparing Carrying out the work

Closing

theProject

! "#$$%&'

( ) * ) +

Start

Organizing


Closing

theProjectStart

Organizing


Closing

theProject

! "#$$%&'

( ) * ) +


10/77


Figure 5: Costs of correcting errors

! " # $! " # $

%&'() + ,,", &-$,"./0(.

! " # $

%&'() + ,,", 0 ",,(0$(.! " # $! " # $

%&'() + ,,", &-$,"./0(.

! " # $

%&'() + ,,", 0 ",,(0$(.


11/77


Project Initiation

Right at the beginning, even before the planning for the project begins, the project has to first be

launched by the sponsor. There must be at least a rough idea of the requirements or of the project

content. At this time point there is still no project organization, not even a project leader.

The first things that should happen at the begin of a project are:

! Developing a project charter

! Identifying the stakeholders

Developing a project charter

By the project charter the project is formally authorized.

The naming of the project leader is another important result.

It is a good idea for the project leader himself to write the project charter, as he often has the best skills

for this; and he also gets the chance to have a say in how the project is run, right from the start.

The project charter can/should include the following points:

! The whole purpose or justification for the project

! Measurable project goals and success criteria

! High-level requirements

! High-level project description

! High-level risk summary

! Summary milestone schedule

! Summary budget

Identifying stakeholders

Identifying the stakeholders is important right from the begin of a project. Firstly, knowing this is to some

extent a prerequisite for planning, and secondly you can ensure the early involvement of the

stakeholders, leading to greater participation, acceptance and support for the project.


12/77


Project Planning

If you plan a project thoroughly, then the execution of the project is much simpler as in a badly planned

project. Planning does not only include the creation of a detailed schedule. Other documents are part

the project plan, as the requirements description and a risk register.

Figure 6: How to plan a project

In all planning steps, documents are created. In practice however, you do not necessarily need to create

all these documents for every project. Rather you have to consider what selection and what range ofdocuments you actually need. This depends, on the one hand on the size and complexity of the project,

and on the other on the requirements and specifications of the organization.

Project Plan(In PM Software

like MS Project)

Project Charter

Requirements

Scope Statement

WBS

Activity List

NetworkDiagrams

Activity durationestimates

Project Schedule

Project Management Plan

Cost Perfor-manceBaseline

Human Re-sources Plan

Other Plans

3-PointEstimates


13/77


In this seminar, first of all a framework of documentation is introduced and prepared in practical

exercises. While doing this, not all processes will be examined down to the last detail. In Figure 6 there

is an overview of the documents we shall be using in this seminar first of all. The documents contained

in the circle (Project Plan) are usually not independent documents, but part of the project plan which youcreate with a tool like MS Project, e.g. the Project Schedule is normally contained in the project plan.

The project management plan is the summary of all other plans. The scope statement can, for example,

be a chapter of the project management plan. It can however also be an independent document, and in

the project management plan you only reference it.

Whereas a project plan created by a tool is not necessarily suitable for forwarding or communication, as

it contains a lot of information that would more likely confuse the outsider, the project management plan

is also intended as a project reference which can be forwarded. Other stakeholders can get the

information that is important to them from the project management plan, e.g. a high-level milestone

schedule.

You should have all plans checked by the relevant stakeholders, and approved e.g. in a review meeting.Doing this ensures that all involved are informed about the details of the project, and that any objections

can be taken into consideration.


14/77


Scope Planning

Requirements

When the project charter has been made completed, in your planning you should first of all determinethe requirements of the project. Here it is important that you differentiate between product and project

requirements. Requirements of the product could possibly have no direct effect on the project. For

example, it could be that your project builds on another project or on a finished product and only

expands it. In that case, the requirements of the product include the features of the previous version, but

this doesnt have to lead to an activity in the project. Conversely, for example the requirement to have a

regular customer meeting during the project is a project requirement but not a requirement of the

product.

There is a whole series of techniques to ascertain the requirements, e.g.:

! Mind Mapping

!

Interviews

Project Scope Statement

The scope means the extent or scale of the product or project. As with the requirements, a

differentiation must be made between product and project scope.

The project scope is fixed by the project deliverables. The goal of the project is to create the

deliverables not less and also not more.

A frequent weakness of projects is when it hasnt been precisely defined what exactly the project is

supposed to deliver.

! Is a complex system test part of the project or not?

!

How extensive a handover with training, documentation etc is necessary?You should clarify questions like these as precisely as possible. If something changes later on, you can

point out to the customer that this is not part of the project scope and that this kind of change also

means changes to the project costs or schedule. Unchecked changes in the scope during project

execution, is called scope creep. Scope creep is a very frequent cause of going over budget and

timelines.

When describing the project scope, you should also list things that are notpart of the project. That way

you can keep expectations clear. The project scope statement is the document in which the scope is

described.

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

The WBS is the breaking down of the project into small parts. This can be drawn e.g. as a tree diagram.

Figure 7: Sample WBS

Projekt

Messeauftritt

2. Organi-

sation

3. Material

3.2

Muster

3.1

Werbe-

material

3.1.1Flyer

2.1

Personal

1. Stand

1.1

Standflche

1.2

Aufbauten

1.1.1Vertrag

1.2.1Plan

2.2

Reisen

1.2.2Vertrge

2.1.1Einsatzplan

2.2.1Buchungen

3.1.2Prospekte


15/77


Structure of the WBS

There are many different ways of structuring the project. You can, for example, structure it according to

product components, or according to departments involved, or according to different stages in the life

cycle. At first sight it seems like any structure is possible.

Practice however has shown that it is best to start with the deliverables. Producing deliverables is the

goal of the project. Deliverables should therefore be on the highest level. All activities in the project have

to aim at producing the deliverables. With this kind of WBS you will always have the focus on achieving

the project goals.

What is found on the lowest level of a WBS? It is actually not the activities that lead to the achieving of

the deliverables, but work packages. Work packages are work results, and not the work itself.

This means that also here you focus on goals and results. For all these partial stages of the project,

there should be tangible results.

If, for example, software is to be tested, then the work package is not called software testing but

software test report. Only when you have the test report in your hands is the work package complete,

and not when someone says to you that they have tested the software. The test report can be

forwarded on, and it is likely also part of one of the deliverables. The statement we have tested is

probably not much use to you.


16/77


Time Planning

Activity List

A work package can generally be further divided into activities that are necessary to create the workpackage these are the activities that are included in the activity list.

Although, it should be differentiated neatly between the WBS and the activity list, in practice both are

found together in the project plan. The risk here is not thinking in work packages, but way up in the

hierarchy in activities. This can lead to a lot happening in your project, with everyone working hard, but

in the end having no actual results in your hands.

It is therefore particularly important, even if the WBS is simply a part of the project plan, to define clearly

what the work packages are, as they are what you need to ensure project success.

Gantt Chart

The project plan normally uses a Gantt Chart in order to show the activities.

Figure 8: Sample Gantt Chart

In the Gantt Chart, every activity is represented by a bar that shows how long the activity takes and

when it is to be executed. The duration of activities is arrived at by considering the effort estimation and

the resource allocation (see below).

Milestones

It is important for the success of the project to have binary milestones in the schedule. With a binary

milestone there are only two statements: Achieved or not achieved. The deliverables of a project arelinked with such milestones. Here it is necessary to take care that each of the deliverables undergoes

inspection. A document only counts as finished when it has been approved, not when it has been

written. A software delivery is only finished if it has been successfully tested and the test report is

available. Statements like software 60% finished are not appropriate for milestones.

Dependencies

As well as the duration, the dependencies of the activities have to be defined. For example, you can

only put up wallpaper when the plastering is finished. In addition there are also arbitrary dependencies

when, for example, project staff are assigned to several tasks which they can only execute one after the

other (otherwise they would be overloaded).

Just considering the dependencies already results in a time schedule.

In the Gantt, dependencies are indicated by arrows between the activities. In Figure 8 every activity is

dependent on its predecessor.


17/77


An activity can at least in theory depend on another activity in four ways:

! FS Finish to Start (this is the most frequent type of dependency. One activity can only start

when the other activity has been completed.)

! SS Start to Start (e.g. recording the measuring data of a technical system is dependent on the

begin of its test run)

! FF Finish to Finish (e.g. in a plant, installing a sensor which has to be installed during the last

step of the plants construction)

! SF Start to Finish (doesnt happen in practice)

Precedence Diagram

The Precedence Diagram is another type of representation of dependencies between activities.

Figure 9: Precedence Diagram

Like the Gantt Chart, the Precedence Diagram also shows the dependency between activities using

arrows. In practice, as the Precedence Diagram is only another way of presenting the Gantt Chart, and

can also be displayed using current project planning tools, you do not need to draw a Precedence

Diagram.

The Critical Path

The critical path is the chain of activities that, if delayed, immediately mean a delay to the project. You

must keep a particularly close eye on the critical path during the execution of the project. Other activities

that do not lie on the critical path can however become the critical path if they get delayed enough.

Therefore you should monitor these activities with the same care.

The critical path is automatically calculated by the project management software. But you can also usea Precedence Diagram to determine the critical path manually.

G E F

C D

J H I

K

A B

Begin

0

End


18/77


Figure 10: Calculation of the critical path

For this, first enter the duration of each activity. Then you go through all activities, from left to right, and

calculate the earliest start and the earliest end. When you have reached the end, go backwards from

right to left through all activities and calculate the latest end and the latest start. The float of an activity

describes how much the activity can be delayed without it having an effect on the project. It is the

difference between the earliest and latest start (or end). All activities whose float equals zero, lie on the

critical path.

In the example, you would first enter the duration of all activities. Then you enter 0 in A as early start

(carried over from the beginning). Early finish is then 0+the duration of A. The early start of B then

corresponds to the early finish of A etc.

Leads, Lags and Schedule Compression

In addition to the dependencies you can also take certain times into consideration:

! Lead: The successor activity can already start early by a certain time frame. This leads to

overlapping.

! Lag: The successor activity can only begin after a certain delay. This allows for, amongst otherthings, process-related waiting times (like e.g. drying times in construction).

Figure 11: Leads and Lags

The term schedule compressionmeans the techniques you can use to condense the time schedule and

get to the project end faster, or if you would like to catch up again after a project delay.

There are two types of schedule compression:

! Fast Tracking (overlapping of activities by using leads)! Crashing (shortening of the project by introducing extra resources, overtime etc.)

Do not overestimate the effect of either technique.

ES = early start dateLS = late start dateEF = early finish date

LF = late finish date

Name

ES Durat. EF

LS Float LF

Lag:

Lead:


19/77


Fast tracking makes the project plan even more sensitive to delays and is also only possible to a certain

extent.

The effect of crashing can be smaller than expected, as the resources brought in first need to be trained

up. With a larger team there is an increased chance of miscommunication, and overtime could lead to

overwork, with a drop in performance, or to demotivation.

Critical Chain

The critical chain is an extension of the critical path. It is used after resources have been planned in for

all activities. This normally will have resulted in a change in the time schedule, as resources cannot be

available anytime and without limitation. The critical path of this plan is then described as a critical

chain. Then at the end of the critical chain and with that at the end of the project a project buffer is

added, whose size depends on the level of uncertainty in the project. In addition, feeding buffers are

added to all chains that feed into the critical chain; their size depends in turn on the uncertainty of the

activities being protected by the respective feeding buffer. When monitoring the project, attention is paid

that none of the feeding buffers run over.

Figure 12: Critical Chain

Critical Chain

S E

Feeding

Buffer

Feeding

Buffer

Project

Buffer


20/77


Effort Estimation

Estimating effort is a difficult task and in many projects there can be serious errors in the estimation.

The results of the effort estimation are used for planning timelines and costs.

Research and experience show that in general estimations are made too tightly. For example, one study

of 300 software projects showed that the estimates of software developers had an optimism factor of

20%-30%. (Why is software late? An Empirical Study of Reasons for Delay in Software Development.

In IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering SE 17, no.6 (June).)

Unfortunately, simply increasing the estimation isnt the answer, as experience shows that when the

estimation is too generous, the extra time just gets used up as well.

Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.

Parkinsons Law

One problem in estimating it is that it is basically about prediction, of a statistical nature. In reality, the

effort can end up being higher or also lower. The use of a single value (one-point estimate) is therefore

misleading as it gives the impression of a certainty that does not exist at all.

Figure 13: One-point estimate

In Figure 13 only one single estimate is named. Its impossible to tell what level of uncertainty is to be

reckoned with.

Schtzwert

Aufwand/Dauer

Wahrscheinlichkeit

Schtzwert

Aufwand/Dauer

Wahrscheinlichkeit

90% Bereich

Normaler Fall

(50/50)

Min Max Aufwand/Dauer

Wahrscheinlichkeit 90% Bereich

Normaler Fall

(50/50)

Min Max Aufwand/Dauer

Wahrscheinlichkeit


21/77


Figure 14: Probability distribution

In reality there is something more like a probability distribution (Figure 14). This is about making a

statistical prediction as to the effort (or length of time) required for the project to be completed. There isan area with higher probability, but you can see that due to uncertainty, a significantly higher or smaller

effort is also possible.

The 90% area is the area of effort (or length of time), in which the project will likely be completed with a

probability of 90%.

Figure 15: Cone of uncertainty

The width of the area of probability depends on how much information is available about the project at

the time of the estimate. Normally the information gets ever more exact in the course of the project, thus

making a more precise estimate possible. This can also be depicted as the "cone of uncertainty (see

Figure 15).

The continuous lines show how the probability area reduces in size in the course of the project, as moreinformation becomes available and uncertainty is reduced. The dashed line shows an example of the

process of a one-point estimate that keeps getting adjusted upwards, which gives the impression that

the project is running over. In fact this curve is lying within the area of the cone. This increase of the

estimate can simply be the result of ever more precise information becoming available.

In order to improve the quality of the estimation, the following is necessary:

! Compilation of as exact information as possible about the project early on.

! Use of historical information from projects already completed.

! Use of estimation techniques instead of subjective estimates.

Estimation techniques

For effort estimation there are a lot of methods which can essentially be divided into two groups:

! Bottom-up estimating

Geschtzter

Aufwand

Projektverlauf

Einpunkt-

schtzung

90% Bereich

Geschtzter

Aufwand

Projektverlauf

Einpunkt-

schtzung

90% Bereich


22/77


! Top-down estimating

Bottom-Up Estimating

Bottom-up estimating assumes that a WBS or an activity list already exists. For every single workpackage, or for every single activity, the effort is estimated. The estimated total effort is then the sum of

the individual effort estimates.

For a good estimation it is necessary, amongst other things, for the WBS to contain the complete set of

all project parts. It is possible to make an estimate even if not all parts of the WBS are fleshed out in

detail. But if parts are actually missing then the estimate will definitely be too low.

Top-Down Estimating

With top-down estimating, the project as a whole is estimated. This method is good if there is not a lot of

time for estimation, e.g. when submitting an offer.

Even if not very detailed information is available, you can still make a good estimate through the use of

estimating techniques and historical data.

Analogous Estimating

With analogous estimating (estimating by comparing parameters) the whole project is compared with

one or several previous, and similar, projects so it is a case of top-down estimating. The comparison

is made based on an estimate of the size of the new project, and the known size of the previous

projects. Estimating on the basis of comparing size is more accurate than comparing without

considering the size. The skill is in determining which size parameters are relevant for the project scope.

In software development that could be e.g. the number of features, the number of entry masks etc.

Generally, several parameters will be combined with weighting factors. Determining the weighting

factors is also critical, and has a great influence on the estimate. This should be checked using

historical data.

Parametric Estimating

With parametric estimating you proceed in a similar way as with analogous estimating, only the

comparison is not with one previous project, but with data collected from many previous projects. Also

here the parameters for comparison and their weighting factors must be selected carefully.

Figure 16: Parametric estimation

!"

!#

!$

!%

!&

'()(*+,-,./0

1()23+)(,4-253,6


23/77


Statistical Foundations of the 3-Point Estimate

As a bottom-up process, the 3-point estimate is normally applied. With the 3-point estimate, for every

work step, not only the expected effort is estimated but also the minimum and maximum effort to be

expected. Out of these three values, the total effort for the project is calculated using a statisticalprocess over several steps, where statistical variances are taken into account. If the maximum and

minimum efforts really are correctly estimated, the resulting estimate will be correct with 95% certainty.

With the 3-point estimate, the statistical parameters expected value and standard deviationare whats

important.

Figure 17: Expected value and standard deviation

In many statistical calculations, a Gaussian normal distribution is assumed (see Figure 17), where the

probability curve surrounds the average value symmetrically the so-called expected value E. The

expected value is the value that can be expected on average after a high number of observations. Sothe expected value of the number of dots if you throw two dice is 7. With a high number of throws, the

sum of the number of dots, divided by the number of throws, gives a value which with great probability

will be near 7.

Figure 18: Standard deviation !

The standard deviation !(=sigma) is a measure for the width of a distribution curve. The greater the

uncertainty is, the greater the standard deviation.

E

!

p

E

!

p

E

!1

p

!2

p1

p2

E

!1

p

!2

p1

p2


24/77


Figure 19: Confidence values

Estimating efforts usually involves asymmetrical distribution curves. So E lies not where the curve is

highest, but slightly to the side. It is possible, with the aid of standard deviation to indicate so-called

confidence values.

! E + !: 70 % of all values lie in the area E !.

! E + 2!: 95 % of all values lie in the area E 2!.

! E + 3!: 99.7 % of all values lie in the area E 3!.

!

Therefore, if you know the expected value and the standard deviation you can make a prediction with

95% accuracy. The problem however is defining E and !reliably.

The Execution of a 3-Point Estimate

In order to execute a 3-point estimate, you do not need to do any statistical calculations yourself. You

can use a table that has been set up with the appropriate formulae already integrated.

All you have to do is estimate three values for every activity or for every work package:

! The most likely case (m)

! The worst case (a)

! The best case (b)

From this, the following is calculated:

E the expected value.

6

4 bmaE

++

=

! the standard deviation. The distance between the best case and the worst case is 6 !.

6

ab!="

The estimate (95%) this estimate has a confidence level of 95% i.e. that in 95% of cases the effort will

lie below the estimate and only in 5% of cases above it.

E + ! E + 2! E + 3!E

!

2!

3!

50% 70% 95% 99,7%

E + ! E + 2! E + 3!E

!

2!

3!

50% 70% 95% 99,7%


25/77


!*295_ += EEstimate

Figure 20: 3-Point-Estimation

The whole project effort (95% confidence) is then calculated from the sum of the individual estimates

(95%).

However, you must be aware that, in practice, the maximum values can also be exceeded. The

statistical/mathematical basis for this process can lead to the false assumption that, by using it, one is

getting sure-fire estimated values. However, this is only the case if the three-point estimate values

entered are correct. An error that is made here cannot be corrected by using the process, so there is a

risk of being lulled into a false sense of security.

A significant advantage of the three-point estimate is that anyone making an estimate has to consider

extreme values, so that an optimist takes into consideration the worst case, and a pessimist takes into

consideration the best case. Through this you get a more neutral estimate than with the one-point

estimate, where only the expected effort is estimated.

Task

Best Case

Estimate a

Most Likely

Estimate m

Worst Case

Estimate b E Value !Value

Task

Estimate95%

Confidence

Task 1 10,0 12,0 15,0 12,17 0,84 13,9

Task 2 24,0 28,0 40,0 29,34 2,67 34,7

Task 3 10,0 15,0 20,0 15,00 1,67 18,3

Task 4 8,0 11,0 16,0 11,34 1,34 14,0

Task 5 10,0 14,0 25,0 15,17 2,50 20,2

Task 6 20,0 30,0 45,0 30,84 4,17 39,2

Totals 82,0 110,0 161,0 113,86 140,3


26/77


Cost Planning

By doing the effort estimate, a large part of the cost planning is already covered. As well as calculating

the estimated total costs, a cost performance baseline is also defined. A baseline is basically a

document that reflects the status, authorized and frozen. With the cost performance baseline you can, in

the course of the project, make reference to what costs were originally planned.

The cost performance baseline is a chart showing the planned accumulated costs during the course of

the project.

Figure 21: Cost Performance Baseline

The cost performance baseline is an important aid, during the execution of the project, for monitoring

project progress using the Earned Value Technique. In the context of the Earned Value Technique, the

cost performance baseline is also called the performance measurement baseline (PMB).

The cost performance baseline includes all costs incurred, even if payment hasnt been made yet.

Figure 21 includes the expenditure curve, which shows only the actual expenditures. But for monitoring

the project progress it is the work done, and not the work paid for, that is a crucial indicator.

The budget at completion (BAC) is the sum of all planned expenses, i.e. the cost performance baseline

ends with the BAC.

Planned spending buffers are not incorporated into the cost performance baseline. A difference can be

made between:

! Contingency Reserves and

! Management Reserves.

Contingency reserves are intended for unplanned but maybe necessary changes because of known

risks arising. The project leader can have access to the contingency reserves.

Management reserves are intended for unforeseen things, the unknown risks. The project leader may,

usually only with authorization, be allowed access to the management reserves.

Cost(cumulative)

Time

Cost Performance Baseline

Expenditures

Funding

Requirements

BAC

Cost(cumulative)

Time

Cost Performance Baseline

Expenditures

Funding

Requirements

BAC


27/77


Human Resource Planning

The human resource plan documents roles, responsibilities and project organizational charts. In

addition, it includes a plan for how the staffing needs of the project will be covered.

Responsibility Assignment Matrix

Roles and responsibilities can be represented e.g. in a responsibility assignment matrix (RAM), which

illustrates the connection between the work packages or tasks of the project and the project team staff.

One kind of RAM is the RACI chart, where not only accountability is included, but also who contributes

something to a project part, who advises on it and who should be informed about it.

Please note that, in the RACI chart, for one task there is only one person accountable, but there can be

several who are responsible.

RACI Chart Role

Activity/Process Sponsor ProjectManager

SystemArchitect

Developer SystemTester

Collect requirements A R C C

Create project plan A R C

Develop specification I A R

Create deliverables A R

Test deliverables A R

Manage change requests A R I C

R = Responsible, A = Accountable, C = Consult, I = Inform

Figure 22: RACI Chart

Resource Calendar

The staffing need can be represented in a resource calendar.

Figure 23: Resource calendar

If there is an upper limit for personnel availability (line in Figure 23) adjustments can be made usingresource leveling until the staffing need is spread evenly over the time available. Resource leveling can

also be used for individual employees, in order to ensure that they are not overburdened by the work

planned, but are generally working at 100% capacity.

Ressourcen-Kalender

0

5

10

15

20

25

Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov

Monat

Mitarb

eiter

Mitarbeiter

Verfgbar


28/77


Resource leveling for individual employees is usually performed with a project planning tool. Here you

can either look at the resource calendar of every employee and then shift the tasks assigned to him, or

put them into a preferred order according to dependencies; or you can execute resource leveling

automatically. With the automatic execution, however, you have no influence over the result, so youmay not get a satisfactory result.

If you want to structure your project team because e.g. it is too big to be managed by you alone, then

you can illustrate this structure in an organizational chart.

Figure 24: Project Team Organization Chart

Project Manager

Head

Development

Team

Head

Test Team

Sales

Representative

Customer

Support

Representative

Developer 1

Developer 2

Tester 1

Tester 2

Project Manager

Head

Development

Team

Head

Test Team

Sales

Representative

Customer

Support

Representative

Developer 1

Developer 2

Tester 1

Tester 2


29/77


Milestone Trend Analysis (MTA)

The milestone trend analysis serves to illustrate clearly any trend in the change of milestones.

In a graph, the passage of time in the run of the project is illustrated on the x-axis. The y-axis is also anaxis showing time; here however the planned date for the milestones is shown.

A milestone that is not postponed (or moved forward) creates a horizontal line. Each change of a

milestone is shown in an upward or downward movement of the line.

Graphic 25: Milestone Trend Analysis

On the lowest ascending straight line in the MTA, the current date corresponds to the milestone date.

The area below the line is generally empty in the MTA. As soon as a milestone is reached, it goes onto

this line and no longer needs to be tracked (e.g. MS1 and MS2). If a milestone is not reached, then it

has to be moved up.

An ascending trend curve indicates too optimistic planning. The milestone has not been reached and

has to keep being postponed.

A descending trend curve means that milestones are being reached earlier than originally planned. On

the one hand this is good news, but it does however indicate too cautious planning.

The advantage of this procedure is that you not only see a current snap-shot of the milestones, but also

get a view of both the past (through the trend lines) as well as the future (through the dates of planned

milestones).

The MTA is a tool developed in Germany. There is a description at

http://www.theprojectgroup.com/E/produkte/produkte_mta_server_e.html

Milestone Trend Analysis

15.01.2009

12.02.2009

12.03.2009

09.04.2009

07.05.2009

04.06.2009

02.07.2009

30.07.2009

27.08.2009

15.

01.

2009

22.

01.

2009

29.

01.

2009

05.

02.

2009

12.

02.

2009

19.

02.

2009

26.

02.

2009

05.

03.

2009

12.

03.

2009

19.

03.

2009

26.

03.

2009

02.

04.

2009

09.

04.

2009

16.

04.

2009

23.

04.

2009

30.

04.

2009

07.

05.

2009

Date

MilestoneDat

e MS 1

MS 2

MS 3

MS 4

MS 5


30/77


Earned Value

With the Earned Value Process you can convey the status of the project with regard to costs and

timelines in just one or two numbers. This makes the Earned Value an excellent indicator for reporting

purposes.

The process is explained in detail in the worksheets.

Here are just some definitions, briefly summarized:

Earned Value (EV): Earned value is a measure of how much of the planned work has been completed

so far. For this the planned cost of each activity is multiplied by its degree of completion. The result from

these products added together is the Earned Value.

Actual Cost (AC): This value indicates how much investment has been necessary so far. The Earned

Value can be lower (or higher) than AC, as the EV does not take into account how much expenditure a

particular activity required, but how much expenditure was planned for it.

Planned Value (PV): The Planned Value indicates what costs have been incurred up to a particular

point in time in the plan.

Graphic 26: Earned Value, Planned Value und Actual Costs

It is perfectly conceivable that PV and AC are the same, i.e. that the planned costs equal the actual

expenditures at a particular point of time. To believe that everything is therefore running according toplan would however be illusory if you do not also take into account the EV.

Example: You are building a road, which is 4km long, the construction of which takes 4 months and

costs !400,000.

After 1 month you have spent !100,000.

In that case AC is = !100,000.

PV is also = !100,000.

If, however, only 500m of the street is complete, then the degree of completion is 12.5% and EV = 0.125

* !400,000 = !50,000.

Only when EV is included can you see that the project is behind schedule, and so far twice asexpensive as planned. In a simple case like this the delay is of course obvious. In a complex project

C

ost(cumulative)

Time

Planned Value (PV)

Earned Value (EV)

Actual Costs (AC)

Budget at

Completion

(BAC)

C

ost(cumulative)

Time

Planned Value (PV)

Earned Value (EV)

Actual Costs (AC)

Budget at

Completion

(BAC)


31/77


with a lot of individual activities, it is not nearly as easy to notice a delay and especially difficult to

quantify it.

Earned Value IndicatorsThere are two indicators based on the earned value variable, which express how much the project is

following the plan regarding costs and schedule.

Cost Performance Index (CPI): The Cost Performance Index is the ratio between Earned Value and

Actual Costs. It expresses, which results you have got for the money spent.

CPI = EV / AC

A CPI of 1.0 indicates that the costs are exactly as planned.

A CPI < 1.0 indicates that so far the project has been more expensive then planned.

A CPI > 1.0 indicates that the project is cheaper then planned.

Schedule Performance Index (SPI). The Schedule Performance Index ist the ratio between Earned

Value and Planned Value and indicates, how well the planned schedule is achieved.

SPI = EV / PV

If the project is running exactly according to the plan, then the SPI = 1.0.

If the project is delayed, then the SPI < 1.0.

If the project is faster as planned, then the SPI > 1.0.


32/77


33/77


Risk Management

Risk management is there to handle risks that can have an influence on the project, but are not included

in the project plan. Risks are uncertain future events that can have a positive or negative impact on the

project.

Risk list

Initial data on risks can already be included in the Project Charter. When planning the project a list of

known risks is compiled. It should not only be the project leader who works on compiling the list, but

also experts, team members and other stakeholders. The first step is to identify the risks.

Risk identification

The identification of risks is a prerequisite for effective risk managementThere are numerous techniques

for risk identification:

!

Reviews,! Brainstorming,

! Delphi technique,

! Interviewing,

! Root cause analysis,

! Checklist analysis,

! Assumption analysis,

! Cause and effect diagrams,

! System or process flow charts,

! Influence diagrams,

! SWOT analysis,

! Expert judgement

Delphi Technique

With the Delphi Technique a consensus amongst experts can be reached. Each expert gives a written

evaluation on a problem. The evaluations are then passed on to the other experts for further comment,

all the time with no discussion taking place. After several rounds you generally end up with a consensus

of the experts. There is a detailed description in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method

SWOT Analysis

The SWOT Analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) is a versatile procedure where,

having identified the strengths and weaknesses of an organization, a second step analyzes what

opportunities result from the strengths and what threats (risks) from the weaknesses. This procedure is

suitable for risk identification, as well as other things.


34/77


Table 1: SWOT-Analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities Threats

Risk evaluation

Risks are evaluated according to

! The probability of their occurring, and according to their

! Impact on the project.

From this a value is determined for the size of the risk.

The probability is generally indicated by a number in the range [0..1].

The impact can also be expressed by a number in the same range. For this a predefined matrix, for

example, can be used.

Table 2: Risk/Impact Matrix (example)

Impact on Very low Low Medium High Very high

0.05 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80

Costs No markedimpact

Less than 6 %increase

7 % - 12 %increase

13 % - 18 %increase

More than18 % increase

Time No markedimpact

Less than 6 %increase

7 % - 12 %increase

13 % - 18 %increase

More than18 % increase

Quality No markedimpact

Only a fewcomponents

affected

Significantadverse impact

that requirescustomerpermission tocontinue

Unacceptablequality

Productunusable

Both the valuesprobabilityand impactcan be combined to make one value for total risk, for example by

simple multiplication.

Risk Response Strategies

For risks as of a certain risk value, actions are defined to reduce their probability or their impact, as well

as actions on how to respond to them if they do occur. It should be predefined as of what threshold

actions for reduction should be planned, and as of what threshold reactions. All activities for preventingrisks must be included in the project plan.


35/77


The risk list gets updated in the weekly status meeting. This means the project leader asks if there are

any new risks, or any changes in the evaluation of risks already identified.


36/77


Stakeholder Management

Stakeholder Analysis

For successful project management, it is necessary to have effective stakeholder management. In this,it is important that you set priorities, classify the stakeholders and focus on the more important

stakeholders.

The first step of stakeholder analysis is the identification of the stakeholders.

The second is classification. There are various criteria for this (see PMBOK p 249). One possibility is to

assess stakeholders according to their power and their stake (interest) in the project. Then you can

enter the stakeholders into a power/interest grid.

Graphic 27: Stakeholder Power/Interest Grid

Depending on their power and interest, various strategies lend themselves to the different groups of

stakeholders. In addition, it also has to be taken into consideration whether the stakeholders have more

of a positive or a negative attitude to the project, in order to be able to evaluate how they would behave

in various situations.

The third step is a description of the strategies, with which you want to involve the different stakeholders

in the project and get their support for the project.

Communications Planning

The various stakeholder strategies also primarily contain different communication methods. This is

defined in the communication management plan.

The communications management plan should at least contain:

! Meetings

! Reporting. In addition to the reporting of the project manager, this includes the reporting of team

members, suppliers, etc.

! The project repository, in which you will find all project documents. This can be a network folder

that can be accessed from all team members and other stakeholders. You should describe the

structure along with responsibilities and access rights. Who is responsible for which subfolder?

Which documents must exist? And who is responsible for them?

The following communication methods are conceivable:

! Interactive communication (meetings, calls, etc.)

Monitor

(Minimum

Effort)

Keep

Informed

Keep

Satisfied

Manage

Closely

!"#$%$

'()$%

*+,-

*+,-

. ()

*+,-. () *+, -. ()

Monitor

(Minimum

Effort)

Keep

Informed

Keep

Satisfied

Manage

Closely

!"#$%$

'()$%

*+,-

*+,-

. ()

*+,-. () *+, -. ()


37/77


! Push communication (sending of information. E.g. weekly status report to specific stakeholders)

! Pull communication (information is made available for retrieval, e.g. in the intranet or in the

project repository)


38/77


39/77


40/77


41/77


Case study: Project charter

Project: Project name: Fair attendance CeBIT 2013

Project manager: Carin Langwasser

Sponsor: Sandra Freiberger

Description: Short description of the project.

The complete fair attendance of FleetSolutions Inc. on the CeBIT 2013 shall be

prepared and organized.

Project purpose: Motivation for the project (Why will the project be executed?)

It is the goal of FleetSolutions Inc. to reach a high number of decision makers on the

CeBIT. The focus is on introducing the services of FleetSolutions Inc. to medium-sized

companies with a potential demand of fleet management solutions. A further purpose

of the CeBIT attendance is to collect contact data for further marketing and sales

activities.

Project

objectives

Which objectives does the project have?

The objective of the project is to prepare and conduct the complete fair attendance.

This includes:

Collecting of detailed requirements for the project

Selecting the location of the exhibition stand and concluding the contract with

the fair organizer.

Designing, building, setting up, and removal of the stand. Organizing the team on the exhibition including the travel arrangements

Assuring the availability and creation of materials to be distributed

The exhibition stand should be designed in such a way that it clearly distinguished

itself from competitors. It should leave a long lasting impression at the visitors. The

visitors should get a vivid impression of the products of FleetSolutins Inc.

Great stress is put on a smooth going event without surprises and troubles.

Constraints: Project constraints (e.g. budget, time, technical constraints)

The stand must be ready 2 days before the fair. Maimum costs are 45,000 !. All

regulations of the organizer of the fair must be observed.

Resources: Human Resources, material, financial resources:

1 person for the preparation, 6 persons permanently at the exhibition stand.

Maximum budget 45,000.00 !

Approval(s): Project manager:

Date:

Sponsor:

Date:


42/77


Case study: Stakeholder register

Project: Fair attendance CeBIT 2013

Project manager:Carin Langwasser Doc.-No. / Version:8014.13 / v1.1

Author:Carin Langwasser Date:30.06.2012

Stakeholder Interest /

influence on

the project

Strategy

Project manager

Carin Langwasser

High / high n.a.

Sponsor

Head of Marketing

Sandra Freiberger

High / high Close cooperation

Regular coordination meetings

Project changes will be approved by the sponsor

Head of Sales

Roberto Castellani

High / high Involve in requirements analsis

Align on stand design, advertising material and staff

schedule

Regular reporting

Marketing

Gabriele Schmidt

Medium / high Inform early about the project and explain the importance

of the fair attendance in order to get as much support as

possible.

Involve in planning to secure resources.

Consider corporate identity requirements for the stand

design

Procurement

Andreas Schotte

Medium /

medium

Inform early about the project and explain the importance

of the fair attendance in order to get as much support as

possible.

Deutsche Messe AG

Fair organizer

Medium /

medium

Establish contact early to have the best influence on the

location of the stand and its environment.

Trade visitors High / low Media research to investigate on trend topics

Get in touch with a group of trade visitors, selected by

Sales, to understand their main area of interest


43/77


Stakeholder Interest /

influence on

the project

Strategy

Stand builder

To be selected

High / low Consider the flexibility of the stand builder along with the

cost effectiveness.

Daily contact during the time of stand constructions

Fire department

Contact to be

determined

Low / high Provide plans in advance for review to avoid problems ate

the time of stand acceptance


44/77


Case study: Communications Plan


Project manager:Carin Langwasser Doc.-No. / Version:8014.14 / v1.0

Author:Carin Langwasser Date:30.06.2012

Communication Frequency Target Group Format

Status Report 1x / week Sponsor, Head of Sales 1 page Powerpoint per

email

Project Review

Meeting

Every 2 weeks Sponsor One-to-one meeting

Team Meeting 1x / week Gerhard Koch (Advertising),

Claudia Stenger (HR),

Bastian Schrder (Legal)

Meeting (1h)

Newsletter 1x / month All stakeholders Email with essential news

Kick-Off Meeting At the start of

projectexecution

All stakeholders Meeting


45/77


Case study: Requirements




Functional

requirements

F001 The stand must be located in the sector Systems Solutions of the CeBIT

F002 The stand must have an area of 45-50 sqm.

F003 Two sides of the stand must face a passageway.

F004 The stand must have an electrical connection.

F005 The stand must be equipped with a LAN connection

F006 The stand should have a creative design, which distinguishes itself clearly from

standard fair stand designs.

F007 The stand must be equipped as follows:

Closed back panels

3 m counter with stackers below the desk.

6 barstools

Bistro table

4 bistro chairs

Lockable clothes cabinet

Lockable office cabinett

Brochure display stand

Mini refrigerator

Drinks, glasses,

Vacuum cleaner

F008 The stand design must comply to the corporate designF009 On the stand there must be a sufficient amount of flyers, brochures and sample

devices. Business cards have to be brought by the employees themselves. This must

be pointed out to them.

Organisational

requirements

O001 During the fair there must be 4 employees at the stand permanently.

O002 For peak hours 6 employees must be planned for

O003 The departments management, sales and development must be present on the fair.

O004 Hotel and travel bookings must be done for the employees on the fair. For visitorsbookings of reservations are not perpormed.


46/77


O005 Es muss in Abstimmungen mit den betroffenen Bereichen und den vorgesehenen

Mitarbeitern ein Einsatz- und Reiseplan erstellt werden, der im Intranet einsehbar ist.

Project

requirements

P001 The stand must be built up on the fair ground at the latest 2 days before the begin of

the fair.

P002 The advertising material must be present in the company at least 4 days before the

begin of the fair and must be brought in time to the fair.

P003 The employees must arrive on the day before the fair in the hotel.

P004 On the night before the fair opening a briefing takes place in the hotel.

P005 There is a budget of mayimum 45,000 Euro.

P006 There must be a biweekly reporting about the progress of the project to the sponsor.


47/77


Case study: Scope description




Product

description:

Description of the product.

The complete fair attendance of FleetSolutions Inc. on the CeBIT 2013 shall be

prepared and conducted.

Acceptance

criteria:

Which criteria must the product fulfill?

Fullfillment of all requirements.

Compliance with applicable safety regulations

Deliverables: List of all deliverables.

Exhibition stand (this includes renting the floor space and the completed stand)

Organization of the stand personal

Advertising material and sample devices

Exclusions: Items not included in the project.

Invitation of customers

Public relations for the fair attendance

Evening events for the stand personalAssumptions: Facts that are assumed and on which the plan is based.

Availability of a stand constructor at usual conditions.

No simultaneous events of the company in the same time frame.

Constraints: Project constraints (e. g. cost, schedule, technical constraints)

The stand must be set up on the fair already 2 days before the fair opens.

Maximum costs: 45,000 !.

All regulations of the fair organizer must be observed.

The stand and all materials must comply with the corporate identity.


Date:

Sponsor:

Date:


48/77


Case study: Work Breakdown Structure - WBS

ProjektMesseauftritt

2. Organi-

sation

3. Material

3.2

Muster

3.1

Werbe-

material

3.1.1

Flyer

2.1

Personal

1. Stand

1.1

Standflche

1.2

Aufbauten

1.1.1

Vertrag

1.2.1

Plan

2.2

Reisen

1.2.2

Vertrge

2.1.1

Einsatzplan

2.2.1

Buchungen

3.1.2

Prospekte


49/77


Case study: Work package description

Work package:Reservations

WBS-ID: 2.2.1 Doc.-No. / Version:0815/v0.1

Project:Fair attendance CeBIT 2013 Project manager:Carin Langwasser

Author:Carin Langwasser Date: 25.05.2012

Responsible Organization: FleetSolutions Inc. Accountable:Sandra Freiberger

Estimated effort / costs: Estimated duration:

Start date: End date:

Description:

The work package contains all travel reservations for the fair attendance CeBIT 2012. This includes

hotel reservations and booking the flight and train tickets for all employees of the FleetSolutions Inc.

which present the company as exhibitors. Cars must be rented by the employees themselves in case

this is required.

Deliverables / Products:

Tickets, travel itineraries, confirmed hotel reservations. The documents must be placed in the inbox of

the employees. A copy must be provided to HR for the travel expense accounting.

Acceptance criteria:

Tickets are booked according to the specifications of the employees and are confirmed by the

operator / hotel.

Additional conditions:

Only economy / 2nd

class. Limit for hotel rooms: 150,00 !

Signature responsible person: Signature project manager:


50/77


Case study: Schedule (extract)


51/77


Case study: Cost plan




Internal hourly rate 80,00 !

Work package Variance

Internal

hours

Costs Internal

hours

Actual

Cost

Perce

nt

Earned

Value

Cost

Variance

Rent floor space 16.000,00 !

Stand

Design 30 h 2.400,00 !

Stand construction 9.000,00 !

Staff 120 h 9.600,00 !

Travel 1.800,00 !

Hotel 2.600,00 !

Flyer design 20 h 1.600,00 !

Flyer printing 800,00 !

Brochure design 20 h 1.600,00 !Brochure printing 1.400,00 !

Project managemen 60 h 4.800,00 !

Total 51.600,00 !

Contingency reserve 3.000,00 !

Budget 54.600,00 !

Cost plan

Baseline Actuals Conpleted


52/77


Case study: Risk register


53/77


Case study: Cost monitoring




Internal hourly rate 80,00 !

Work package Variance

Internal

hours

Costs Internal

hours

Actual

Cost

Perce

nt

Earned

Value

Cost

Variance

Rent floor space 16.000,00 ! 16.600,00 ! 100% 16.000,00 ! -600,00 !

Stand

Design 30 h 2.400,00 ! 15 h 1.200,00 ! 50% 1.200,00 ! 0,00 !

Stand construction 9.000,00 ! 0,00 ! 0% 0,00 ! 0,00 !

Staff 120 h 9.600,00 ! 0 h 0,00 ! 0% 0,00 ! 0,00 !

Travel 1.800,00 ! 0,00 ! 0% 0,00 ! 0,00 !

Hotel 2.600,00 ! 0,00 ! 0% 0,00 ! 0,00 !

Flyer design 20 h 1.600,00 ! 0 h 0,00 ! 0% 0,00 ! 0,00 !

Flyer printing 800,00 ! 0,00 !

Brochure design 20 h 1.600,00 ! 0 h 0,00 ! 0% 0,00 ! 0,00 !Brochure printing 1.400,00 ! 0,00 !

Project managemen 60 h 4.800,00 ! 0 h 0,00 ! 0% 0,00 ! 0,00 !

Total 51.600,00 ! 17.800,00 ! 0% 17.200,00 ! -600,00 !

Contingency reserve 3.000,00 !

Budget 54.600,00 !

Cost plan

Baseline Actuals Conpleted


54/77


Case study: Status report

Project:Fair attendance CeBIT 2013 Project manager:Carin Langwasser

Date:25.01.2013 Client / customer:Marketing

Overall status:critical Percent complete:40%

CPI:0,84 SPI:0,97

Cost

Baseline Actual Variance Updated plan

Total 47.000 21.000 3.000 54.000

WP 1, Stand 28.000 11.000 2.800 33.000

WP 2, Organizat. 8.000 7.000 -500 8.000

WP 3, Material 11.000 3.000 700 13.000

Milestones

Baseline Updated Plan Achieved

MS 1, Contract 10.07.12 15.07.12 15.07.12

MS 2, Design 15.12.12 15.12.12 22.12.12

MS 3, Stand 14.02.13 14.02.13

MS 4, Stand comp. 04.03.13 04.03.13

Project end 12.03.13 12.03.13

Problems Actions Date

Stand design does not comply with

regulations of the organizer

Revision of the design by the stand constructing

company

29.01.13

Cost variance in the stand

constructins of 2000 !

Save by using standard furnitures instead of the

custom build. Selection still to be done

31.01.13

Risks Response Termin

Staff for the stand team not

decided yet. Risk for early travel

reservations

Individual talks with the departmental heads Next

week

Possible delay of the brochure due

to overload at the advertising

agency

Search alternative supplier 05.02.13


55/77


Exercise: What are projects?

Please indicate which of the following examples represent a project. Please add a cross.

Plan / Intention Project Not a project

Flat renovations

Manufacturing a car

Creating a website

Running the accounts department

Building of a new shopping centre

Construction of the Great Pyramid of

Giza

Organizing a Christmas party

Relocation of a major airport

Hosting CeBit

Hosting an international football game

Carrying out painting work for newly built

block of flats

Reorganization of the accounts

department

Developing new features for some

software

Carrying out software maintenance

Conducting an election campaign


56/77


Example project: Stadt-Bus AG

You work for Stadt-Bus(City Bus) AG, the local public transport operator of a major city. The vehicle

fleet of Stadt-Bus AG is no longer state-of-the-art. Therefore 42 new buses are to be acquired within the

next 12 months to operate on the 4 central lines of the network. After their introduction, further buses

are to be added for other lines.

The management board has selected you to be project manager for the introduction of the 42 new

buses. A budget has been allocated by the city for acquiring the buses, and the contract with the bus

manufacturer has already been signed. It is now your task to ensure the smooth introduction of the new

buses. Your contact person is the technical director, Mr. Grossmann.

You are in charge of the planning, coordination and execution of all activities required to introduce the

new buses. Give thought to all the things that are required, or would be helpful, for the introduction of

the new buses.

All costs exceeding the pure purchase price of the buses have to be borne by Stadt-Bus AG. Mr.

Grossmann expects a cost and time schedule from you.


57/77


Exercise: Writing a project charter

! Write a project charter for the Stadt-Bus project.

! Use the Project Charter template for this.

! Template: Project Charter

Project: Project name:

Project manager:

Sponsor:

Description: Short description of the project.

Project purpose: Motivation for the project (Why will the project be executed?)

Project

objectives

Which objectives does the project have?

Constraints: Project constraints (e.g. budget, time, technical constraints)

Resources: Human Resources, material, financial resources:


Date:

Sponsor:

Date:


58/77


Stadt-Bus AG Organizational Chart

Vorstandsvors

itzender

Dr.MaxSch

nelle

Betrieb

DanielMeier

Personal

Katharina

Weienbach

Finanzen

J

ensJakobi

ffentlichkeit

Dr.JuttaKern

Technik

GunnarGromann

Werkstatt

KostasKalfa

s

Recht

Dr.SabineLange

Buchhaltung

ChristinaThaler

Controlling

GerhardPreu

Kunden-

kommunikation

LuigiCastor

Werbung

GabrieleSchmidt

IT

FredBruns

Einkauf

AndreasSchotte

Fahrbetrieb

JanSchweitzer

Personalplanung

FrankStammer

Personal-

entwicklung

GesineKunz

Inkasso

GuidoBrecher

Umweltschutz

LarissaGrnwa

ld

Finanzplanung

Dr.Hasso

Schmalbach

Technische

Planung

HeikoOtto

Kundenrechte

ClaraFall

Allgemeine

Rechtsfragen

TomKusmirek

Investitionsgter

MelissaKaiser

Beschaffung

PetraWerner

Fundbro

WilhelmSchal

Fahrerpool

Stadt-Bus

AG


59/77


Exercise: Identifying the stakeholders

Who are the stakeholders affected by the project? Draw up a list of stakeholders. For each stakeholder

group specify:

! Description of the group.

! What is the groups interest? What attitude to the project do you anticipate?

! What influence can the group have on the project?

! How do you want to handle the group during the project? How do you want to involve the group

and keep them informed?

Please use the template Stakeholder Register for this.


60/77


61/77


Exercise: Describing the project scope and content

Describe the scope and content of the project. In doing so, specify:

! What does the project include?! What deliverables will the project produce? These include both the items making up the overall

project result; as well as additional output like documentation, plans, reports etc, that are to be

delivered by the project. Services, like e.g. training are also deliverables

! What is out of scope for this project?

! Constraints imposed on the project (e.g. time constraints or a fixed budget), and that limit the

options of the project team.

! List the assumptions underlying the project planning, and that could jeopardize the project

should they turn out to be wrong.

Please use the template Scope Statement for this.


62/77


Template: Scope Statement

Project:

Project Manager: Doc. No. / Version:

Author: Date:

Product scope.

Project deliverables.

Exclusions. What is not part of the project? What features or characteristics does the productnot have?

Constraints.

Assumptions.

Signature Sponsor: Signature Project Manager:


63/77


Exercise: Work Breakdown Structure

Specify in detail what the project includes.

! For this, put together a work breakdown structure.! Start with the highest level deliverables.

! Subdivide these until you have defined manageable work packages that you can assign for

completion.


64/77


Exercise: Describing work packages

Describe a number of work packages from the WBS in detail. For each work package include the

following:

! Brief description of the work package

! Department or organization responsible

! Person responsible

! List of milestones that apply to the work package.

Optional additional information:

! Information about the contract (if outsourced to a supplier)

! Quality requirements

! Resource requirements

! Cost estimate.


65/77


Template: Work Package

Work package: Name of work package

WBS ID: Doc. No. / Version:

Project: Project Manager:

Author: Date:

Organization responsible: Person responsible / owner:

Estimated effort / costs: Estimated duration:

Start date: End date:

Description:

Results / products to be delivered:

Acceptance criteria:

Conditions:

Signature Owner: Signature Project Manager:


66/77


67/77


Exercise: Analogous Estimating

In the software industry, Lines of Code (LOC) are use as a measurement of the size of the software.

Lines of Code are the number of text lines of a software program. The effort for writing the software is

correlated to the Lines of Code approximately. In particular, places the effort may vary much, but in

average, this is leveled.

A reference project consists of several modules. For each module, the size is known in some way. In

addition, the LOC per module are known. Therefore it is concluded for example that a web page of the

user interface is equivalent to 1000 LOC (see below 17 web pages = 17000 LOC). In detail the

parameters of the reference project are:

Module Size LOC (Lines of

User Interface 17 web pages 17000

Data base 12 tables 4000

Report generator 9 reports 9000

Base classes 27 classes 12000

Converter 4 file formats 2000

Total !Syntaxfehler, )

The project had an effort of 35 person months.

A new project shall be estimated. The size is specified as follows:

Module Size Size factor LOC (estimated)

User Interface 24 web pages

Data base 15 tables

Report generator 15 reports

Base classes 32 classes

Converter 5 file formats

Total

1. First determine the size factor for each module (=1000 for web pages in the example).

2. Then calculate the expected size (LOC) of each module of the new project.

3. Finally calculate the expected effort of the new project from the relation of the totals.

old

new

oldnewSize

SizeEffortEffort *=


68/77


Exercise: Three Point Estimating

Perform a three point estimation for a part of the sample project.

! Estimate the effort for 10 activities or work packages of the project.! Specify the minimum, maximum and most likely case for each activity.

! Calculate the total effort with 95% confidence


69/77


Exercise: Parametric Estimation

You are working as a project manager in the construction business. You have data about the costs from

three previous projects. Calculate parameters that allow you to estimate the cost of future projects:

Units (sqm) Price (EUR) Parameter(EUR/sqm)

Project 1 Walls 1200 10.500,00

Floor 450 15.000,00

Tiles 135 6.000,00


Floor 1400 52.000,00

Tiles 520 21.000,00


Floor 900 27.000,00

Tiles 400 15.000,00

Total Walls

Floor

Tiles

Use the parameters to estimate the cost of a new project quickly:

Units (sqm) Parameter Price (EUR)

NewProject

Walls 1800

Floor 700

Tiles 300

Total

! How could you extend this method in case you normally just get to know the floor area of new

projects?

! What are the advantages and disadvantages of such an adapted model?

! In parametric estimation what are factors that make the estimation more reliable?


70/77


Exercise: Drafting a schedule

Subdivide your project according to timelines and draft a rough schedule in the form of a Gantt Chart. In

doing so, consider the following points:

! How can you break down the timelines in your project into separate phases?

! What milestones can you define?

! How can these milestones be linked to deliverables?


71/77


Exercise: Quality Metrics

Define how you plan to measure quality in this project.

! Choose suitable variables that can be used to measure quality.! Specify also, exactly how the values for the variables are to be determined.


72/77


Exercise: Risk planning

Identify 10 of the most serious project risks in the example project. Define the probability (p) and the

impact (i). For the impact you can use Table 3: Risk/impact matrix (example) -page 35. Then calculate

the risk value (p x i) and define for what risks you want to take what actions (risk response):

Id Risk p i p x i Risk Response

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


73/77


Exercise: Milestone-Trend-Analyse

There are three milestones in your project that have been defined during planning as:

! MS 1 15. 03. 2010

! MS 2 15. 05. 2010

! MS 3 20. 06. 2010

In the following table there is a list of six review meetings. At each review meeting there is an updated

plan for the milestones.

Meeting 01.01.10 31.01.10 20.03.10 30.04.10 20.06.10 15.08.10

MS 1 15.03.10 15.03.10 20.03.10

MS 2 15.05.10 15.05.10 30.05.10 20.06.10 20.06.10

MS 3 20.06.10 20.06.10 08.07.10 15.07.10 20.07.10 15.08.10

Draw the milestones in the following diagram in the form of a milestone trend analysis:

Milestone Trend Analysis

01.01.10

01.02.10

01.03.10

01.04.10

01.05.10

01.06.10

01.07.10

01.08.10

01.09.10

01.01.10

01.02.

10

01.03.

10

01.04.10

01.05.

10

01.06.

10

01.07.

10

01.08.

10

01.09.

10

Date

MilestoneDate


74/77


Exercise: Earned Value

You are building three roads for a municipality. The following is planned:

Road 1

! Length 3 km

! Construction period: 4 months

! Construction start: 01.01.2011

! Costs: 5,000,000 !

Road 2

! Length 4 km



! Costs: 3,000,000 !

Road 3

! Length 2 km



! Costs: 1,500,000 !

On 28th Feb 2011 you have completed the fo

Documents

Handout PM Englisch