4
Evaluation of Tsunami Disaster Population Using Simplified Equation of Tsunami Height 1 2 Ken-ichi FUJITA 1 and Harumi YASHIRO 2 1 () Chiyoda Corporation 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National Defense Academy. Variance of tsunami disaster population in tsunami evaluation is presented. In evaluating the disaster population, probability function proposed by the author’s method is used. Variances of flood flow velocity of tsunami and walking velocity in evacuation are considered in the probability function. In evaluation of the tsunami disaster population, simplified tsunami hazard curve evaluated by using simplified equation of tsunami height proposed in previous study. For several tsunami reaching time, variations in the tsunami disaster population are shown each mesh. In the evaluation of the tsunami disaster population, area-mesh size, population and elevation data of area are used GIS. Keywords: Tsunami evacuation, Tsunami damaged population, Tsunami evacuation influence function, Simplified tsunami hazard curve, Area-wide mesh, GIS 2011 3 11 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 4) GIS 1.5 6) 7) 59 東日本大震災特別論文集 No.6,2017.8

>??jOPQRSflŁŽ>?TU“T QRisss.jp.net/isss-site/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/14-2017...>??jOPQRSfl ŁŽ>?TU“T QR Evaluation of Tsunami Disaster Population Using Simplified Equation

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: >??jOPQRSflŁŽ>?TU“T QRisss.jp.net/isss-site/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/14-2017...>??jOPQRSfl ŁŽ>?TU“T QR Evaluation of Tsunami Disaster Population Using Simplified Equation

>??j�OPQRS���>?TU�T�QR Evaluation of Tsunami Disaster Population Using Simplified Equation of

Tsunami Height

è×� ²�1ásù ²¤2

Ken-ichi FUJITA1 and Harumi YASHIRO2 1 6ù�Ã�Ë*(³) Chiyoda Corporation 2 �´ �øÒy·1��°Ë*;@��� Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National Defense Academy.

Variance of tsunami disaster population in tsunami evaluation is presented. In evaluating the disaster population, probability function proposed by the author’s method is used. Variances of flood flow velocity of tsunami and walking velocity in evacuation are considered in the probability function. In evaluation of the tsunami disaster population, simplified tsunami hazard curve evaluated by using simplified equation of tsunami height proposed in previous study. For several tsunami reaching time, variations in the tsunami disaster population are shown each mesh. In the evaluation of the tsunami disaster population, area-mesh size, population and elevation data of area are used GIS. Keywords: Tsunami evacuation, Tsunami damaged population, Tsunami evacuation influence function,

Simplified tsunami hazard curve, Area-wide mesh, GIS ��OPQ� ��� ���2011� 3 11��'212-�8µ F�H%í=?W6áq�2x4��öja678_�

Tln� &�Fð-��8%í�ö 1)�a³ja67

8Ï%í�ö-Æ76(áÊ8É»��-�Î12É»

Æ�±%í��34=�^YE��7Ï��'(á&ß

212-�8жÀ2öËH34-᥷¦H12Ù2

¹§É» 2)=i7834��Ûa678Ï&ß2&�Æ

�±12-�8ËFÐ��H%íîyÆ34-Æ76á

Ù2¹§É»(¸DYE('�F7Ï12Ù2¹§(3

4&«212NjE¹�¥·2¯°'³ja8Ï¥·¦

H12Ù2¹§É»(á&ß212Ù2¹§=öËH-

34'�8º«�B8�:áÉ»��(ºm'B8Ï �ïð'(á¤�2&ß=!¸V-12Ó\-ÆW8

%í��=34�8Ï%í��234-Æ76(áݵ

` 3)212»1��EÓ\Ì��À2³`��=_æ�

8ϼ�H12Ù2¹§ ¡(á½� 4)212Nj34

�=i76DE�8:�=Ç�Ï���=i76á12

c�G�=mlí¹ºE 6%í��=�)�8Ï �

��>?TU�T�2-� �ïð-ÆW812%í��(áÓ\��-Æ761

2-®�"Oa!��E�8Ï%í��234nȹ=

���-Ç�Ï%í��(&ßí¼ÒÐ=i7634�8Ï

í¼ÒЩE-���Eá7NáÓ\-��8�C2�

�·á7NáI�4=*ö�8ϼ�H12Ù2¹§ 

¡(áôõö÷'x4 !��2&�¸¹º5)Æ�±1

2Nj34�4)=i76DE�8Ï���EÆ�±7N

(GIS¸¹º=i78ÏÓ\í¼ÒÐ#`Ó\�O'2|¡([Î�^í¼ÒÐ=¾8�lE áÓ\|¡(Y

2�l-7Nì=#A!|¡21.5¿E�8Ï%í��(áÓ\��G�E12c�G�2¯°#`�A!%�¥·

-I�4©E2%�·6)=áB6Àë áj`-í¼Ò

Ð2��=áB6�A8Ï&ßÒ<2%í��(Aí¼

ÒÐ2�'�A8Ï �

��OP�>?UV$W���¼�H12Ù2¹§ ¡(á&�Ù2¹§ ¡2_?

:7)=i76DE�8ÏÙ2¹§(12NjE¹�¥·

2¯°'³�Ï&�Ù2¹§ ¡(Ù2¹§34&«2

&³���ÀE¹�¥·2¯°'³jaá12Ù2¹§

���� %�234nȹ�

��2&�¸¹º

12I�Jz

%�F %�BÎ

%í¥·

12Ù2¹§ ¡

I�4�%í·

Ó\6Ì��Ê

Ó\Ì��Ê

Ó\í¼ÒÐ

12c�G�

Ó\��GH

Ó\��G�

G6½G�Á

%�

���

&ßí¼ÒÐ

í¼ÒÐ��½7N

Ó\Ì��Ê

- 59 -

東日本大震災特別論文集 No.6,2017.8

Page 2: >??jOPQRSflŁŽ>?TU“T QRisss.jp.net/isss-site/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/14-2017...>??jOPQRSfl ŁŽ>?TU“T QR Evaluation of Tsunami Disaster Population Using Simplified Equation

 ¡(34&«212NjE¹�¥·2¯°'³ja8Ï &�Ù2¹§ ¡2DE-Æ76á34&«2&³�

��À(á&�{�Ñ0й§E�T#`S9&«O'

2|¡2¯Ê'³ja8|¡YÁ�=i76�A`a8Ï

12Nj-�76(á&���ÀE/BD|¡YÁ-�

834��½�3)-�ÎÇja678Ï12Nj234

�(á&�{�Ñ0й§E�>#`S9«O'2�ö

1212>Â�Æ|¡2¯Ê'³ja8Ï12Ù2¹§

 ¡2DE�Ã=0z-Ç�Ï �����2&�¸¹º#`á�>á��áx4G6=½�

�8Ï�ïð'(á5±&5)aP21922�#`2016�O'-��¾-Ç�ôõö12Jz��ÀÞ�.��v

����áÄÀÞ.¾�v.���'x4 ! 6�JM 2¸¹

º=½� !Ï �¾�&���2�Àfy=�A8Ï�

�.��Àfy�Î�õÅx4BÊ=�A8Ï�

���A��=-�8&�2!T�+B!Î2�õÅx4Ç

Ê=�A8Ï&�8,2Æß-Æ76á&�2x4(

Æß;'�\'B8E)ö�8Ï�

���&�{�Ñ0й§=Çö á34&«212NjHt

�12Njh=¹?8!A2�>E34«E212>Â�Æ|¡=��212Nj234�4)=i76�A8Ï

55.5loglog ��� �Wt MH (1) YY-áHt(12Nj(m)á�(12>Â�Æ|¡(km)áMW(!¹íoT{�Ñ0й§'B8ÏO!áMJE

MW2¯°E 6���Ã?`a678Ï 79.0/)44.1( �� JW MM (2)

���&���©E-á34&«2Èö !Ht=¹?8E�

2�=�A8Ï&�(�È�2h;-x4�8E)ö áY2h2Æß�+-��8Ä·��+Ä·�=�A8Ï

FÆh�Æß�+=¹?8E�(�+Ä·=1E�8Ï ���&���©E-á34«'Èö !12Njh=¹?812Nj=Ã?8122�õÅBÊ=�A8Ï�õ

ÅBÊ(á�.�'�A!�õÅx4BÊ-���'�A!

�+Ä·=áB6�A8Ï ���12Ù2¹§ ¡=�A8ÏÈö !h=¹?812Nj©E-á���'�A!&���©E2122�õ

Åx4ÇÊ2��(h)=E8Ï�(h)(�¹�¥·EFÎáhE�(h)2¯°(12Ù2¹§ ¡EF8Ï

FÆá012:�-�v6�A!&�Ù2¹§ ¡(á

Éìlo�{-¨V�á12NjhE12Nj2¹�¥·)( hHp t � 2¯°E 6��'³�YE�'�8Ï

)}(exp{1)( hhHp t ����� (3)

1�TU�T�QR�12Ó\-ÆW8%í��(á�ßÐ2ãlM*,7)

-ÆW8Êu¥·2_?:=�i 6�A8Ï%í��

¥·(��.-Ç�¥·fyE 6Ã?`a8Ï�2pd

(12c�G�EÓ\��G�2G�ì2r�ÕËáË

d(%í��¥·'B8Ï12c�G�EÓ\��G�

2ÌG�2³`��=_æ !G�ì2¯Ê=ö��8Ï

FÆáÌG�(12»1��EÌ��À2¯ÊE 6³

ja8Ï12»1��(JÍ`234�9)=i7áÓ\

G2Ì��À(õG2¯A&2¤9¸¹º10)=i78Ï �

=�TU�T�QR (��� QR�  ¤�2&ß=!¸VE 6áÓ\�C2�7Æ�±1

2c�G�=mlí¹ºE 612Ó\-ÆW8%í�

�=34�8Ï&ß(Î$¯2¸¹º=Í_-*ö !Ï

��)'(áÎ$¯212%í�ö 11)-ÆW8�ö&�

�`�TlnÏ72�Ðb&��Ñs!¸V�á&�¿

;6� ¾�/// �#` .�/// �Z D(9a01á12N

j 10.4má12c�G� �� f�=¨�E á12c�G�= �� fá¾¾ f2 ¾ ʹyE !Ï��� -¼�H12

Ù2¹§ ¡=Ç�Ï%í�ö-ÆW8122�¹�¥

·( 0.0017���¾ �- � Ç�'Bv!Ï&ßí¼ÒÐ(GIS-¨VDfIE áí¼ÒÐ2 �j( 250m�250m'B8Ï��Æ�±7N( GIS ¸¹º=i7á7N(í¼ÒÐ2�ª7N=i7!Ï&ßí¼ÒÐ2���(

23,361 �'B8Ï��� -��fy=Ç�Ï�ÁáÒ(Ó\XÔáÓ(�ö12Nj�ÎZ7N�N7N*'B8Ï

��� -12I�4=Ç�ÏI�4(á12NjE7N2

ìE !ÏO!áÊ¡(��G-¡l-�8Ó\l2f

�¡=Ç áí¼ÒÐ�2��('�F7Z2E !Ï ���E(Aí¼ÒÐEZÁ�>E áÌ��À(¤

9¸¹º 10)2õÅ8 1.34m/sá7�Ôì 0.167m/sE !Ï12»1��-¯ 6(á12I�4=Á>8E á1

2ÕÖNE12,À82��À=³�`� 12)2×c7�

Ôì=i767�Ôì=*ö !Ï12c�2G�Á(

X�E áÓ\(�Ø#`�®#8:uE !Ï Ó\�C2fÙ=³�� -Ç�ÏÓ\�C(�CN7á

�CÁ�Æ�±�Cª7-fÙ á9a}a�76��

Ó\ái£�Ó\áqÚÓ\áÓ\ F7-!fÙ !Ï

��¾� &�¸¹º2½�Jz�

��.� 12%í��¥·�

1.0

0 �P/�P

1-PR

ft(t)fe(t)

�T�E

PRG%í��¥·ft(t)�12c�G�2¥·ÛÀ¯Êfe(t)�Ó\��G�2¥·ÛÀ¯Ê�P = �T - �E�P = �(�T

2 – �E2)

�TÞ&�x4#`Ó\�-12�c��8G�2õÅ8

�EÞ&�x4#`Ó\Ì�O'2G�2õÅ8

�TÞ�T2³`���EÞ�E2³`��tÞG�(min.)

- 60 -

Page 3: >??jOPQRSflŁŽ>?TU“T QRisss.jp.net/isss-site/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/14-2017...>??jOPQRSfl ŁŽ>?TU“T QR Evaluation of Tsunami Disaster Population Using Simplified Equation

&�x4#`Ó\PZO'2G�(á��Ó\' 5 fái£�Ó\' 15fE áqÚÓ\'(í¼ÒÐ-12�c� !G�E !Ï �

(�"� QR !�12c�G� �� fÆ�± ¾¾ f2 ¾ ʹy-�76Ó

\�C2�7-�8%í��=34�8Ïí¼ÒÐ2%

í��2fy=���á&ß2%í��=³�¾ -Ç�Ïí

¼ÒÐ-ÆW8%í��2�7(ÜfW'³ á%í�

��N7í¼ÒÐ=ÝÜáÁ�=ÞÜáª7í¼ÒÐ=

ßÜ'³ á/�Ü'Ê8�N7�ðà7ÜE !Ï %í��(áÓ\�CÆ�±12c�G�-¯Û`Aá

�Ø-�7ENDá;µs-F8EªDF8�u-B8Ï

�Ø�D'ZÓ\XÔ�7í¼ÒÐ2%í��(yD�

ÎZ F7Ï;µs-Æ76%í���N7í¼ÒÐ�

B8ÏÓ\XÔ��D6ZáÓ\l�5q-�Îá�j

aá�2XÔÙÓ\ FWa³F`F7!A'B8Ï Ó\�C2�7-�8%í��(á�C2�7-¯Û

`Aá12c�G��Æ7��� f�E&ßÒ<'NDá

12c�G��J7�¾¾ f�X�2 ����¿EFv!Ï 12c�G�2�7-�8%í��(ác�G�-¯

Û`AáÓ\�C�N7E&ßÒ<'ªDFÎá�C�

ª7E�2 ¾�v¾��-ªY�8Ï �

N�XGQ�12Ó\-ÆW8%í��2ÂÃ=12c�G�2�

7EÓ\�C2�7-�Î34 !ÏO!á¼�H12

Ù2¹§ ¡=&�Ù2¹§ ¡2DE2_?:=i7

6DE !Ï�ïð2OEA=0z-Ç�Ï 1)12Ó\-ÆW8&ßÒ<2%í��(á122c�G��Æ7�ðNDF8Ï

2)12Ó\-��8�C2u1'á%í��(�C�ª7E�2+ ¾�âO'ªz�8Ï

3)%í��(Ó\�C�N7E F7ÏÓ\�Cu1E7v!lnT�3(á%í��2ªz-`CH'B8Ï q�(á12Ù2¹§ ¡á12�H%ínlZî·

� ¡=i76á&ß212-�8�H%íîyÆ=�

F�8~ö'B8Ï �ïð'(¼�H12Ù2¹§ ¡=DE !Ï #

á12Nj234�-(�4�#Oa6F7YEFðá

Ù2¹§2:À-¯ 6(]^�BÎá�¤2}&�ñ

v!Ï12Ù2¹§ ¡=:ÀëD34�8-(᥷

¦H12Ù2¹§É»-�834�j�'BÎáq�2

&�122ÁÂ�vÝF&ß212Ù2¹§ ¡2G�

�oOa8Ï �

4256�

1)Á>��:Þ_�Tln� &�2%í�ö-�76� I�&'�á2013.3.

���� 12Ù2¹§ ¡�

���� ��fy�

ãÊ8(I�4���

���� 12I�4fy�

³��� 12Ó\�C2��I��

³�¾� 12Ó\-ÆW8%í���

9H59

9HFC 9HIC

<HIJ <HCI 9HF1 9HFF

CH55 <HIJ <HIJ CHCK 9HIK

IHFJ CHIJ CHCK CHCK CHCK CH9C CH9C 9HKF 9HKK

IHFJ IHFJ IHCJ IHCJ IHCJ IHKJ CH9C CH9C CH9C 9HKF 9HKF

FH9J FH9J IHCJ IHCJ IHCJ IHKJ CH9C

KH95 KH95 FHJI IH,J IH,J

KHJ5 KHJ5 KHF<

,JH9J KHF<

,JH9J ,JH9J

,JH9J ,JH9J

��Ó\ i£�Ó\ qÚÓ\ Ó\ F7

��CN� ��Cª� ��Cª� ��Cª�

N 80% 10% 5% 5%

Á� 50% 25% 15% 10%

ª 15% 35% 30% 20%

CDFG

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

�¹�¥·

12Nj�m�

c�G���f c�G�¾¾f

N 4,548¶ 2,693¶

Á� 11,239¶ 6,699¶

ª 19,062¶ 12,732¶

CDFG%�

- 61 -

Page 4: >??jOPQRSflŁŽ>?TU“T QRisss.jp.net/isss-site/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/14-2017...>??jOPQRSfl ŁŽ>?TU“T QR Evaluation of Tsunami Disaster Population Using Simplified Equation

2)K/�w$�G;� 1234G;Þw$�x�Ô21234op 2016� w$�K/Òî¹( 1áK/�á2016.9.

3)×�²�ásù²¤Þ&ßí¼ÒÐ=i7!12Ó\¬*2*UÊE*UXÔ2�)áK/�¦"�� F6�õÒ]^�áVol.72 No.2ápp.I_151-I_156á2016Ï

4)½��äÞ&�E122{�Ñ0й§-¨VD12N2~9á&�ïðÔå&áVol.64ápp.51-69á1989

5)5±&�¹1,¹ZÞhttp://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqdb/data/�shindo/index.php

6)�¤æ�á�7ç�áè�é»Þ12%í¯Ê2�FáK/�¦"� BáVol.65áNo.4ápp.320-331á2009.12

7)��ËF�ÜÞExcel '�_&�îyÆ34áo&êëJá2011.8

8)ë7�á­ÚØÞ�ßÐ2ãlM*,�áì³ëJá1986 9)JÍé�áéíîïÞ122µ1��E92¼�/ö�áK/�¦"�á 45®ápp.361-365á1998Ï

10)J��ð� -ÞAlñ�(MEÌ��À2¯°á��ËF�,-�¦"�á 74®á 640¬ápp.1371-1377á2009Ï

11)Î$¯12Ù2¹§{¼xÞhttp://www.city.zushi.kanagawa.jp/ syokan/bousai/tsunami.htmlá2016.3Ï

12)`�òÞ�µ÷2]7122ÒÏÐ�¹ÒÓoá�ó �&�ïðÔå&á 52ô 1¬ápp.71-101á1977

� � � � � � ���� Ó\�CN� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ���� Ó\�CN�

� � � � � � ���� Ó\�CÁ�� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ���� Ó\�CÁ��

� � � � � � ���� Ó\�Cª� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ���� Ó\�Cª�

� � � � � ���� 12c�G� �� f� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �¾�� 12c�G� ¾¾ f�

���� 12%�fy�

1

5I 9J

19 F1 ,, FC

,J5 ,11 K5 C< 1C

,9, ,JI K1 F9 K1 ,JI ,1, <J CC

,<5 ,K1 ,5< IK ,JJ ,95 ,9F ,59 CI I, I9

,JF IJ ,<5 FF ,5, ,19 ,JJ

,F ,1F KF ,JJ ,JJ

I9 ,JC KC

5J CI

,9 CJ

J <,

³Øö|.G4,548³2LGMN­O

MNP-QR:RP;

,

,F 1,

,1 9C C 9F

<1 C, 91 55 ,5

I, KJ 9, 9I 9, IJ CK 1< 5C

IF ,IJ ,,F 5F <J ,,1 ,,5 K< 59 5I 91

<< 5< ,,F <J CC C1 <,

,I C< 9< <, <,

IJ <K 95

,C 59

,5 5J

J 9K

³Øö|.G4,548³2LGMN­O

MNP-QR:RP;

<

F, FK

CJ 15J 1C 19J

1<< 5J9 1JC ,C1 C9

5<5 1C1 1J9 15< 1J5 1C5 5JJ ,19 ,C5

5IF 99J 51C ,F5 1<J 59K 5C9 55J ,CK ,I< ,K9

1I1 ,I9 5I1 19C 51C 5JF 1<J

9< 51, 11, 1<J 1<J

,IF 1C, 1,<

I1 ,CC

55 ,<J

J ,11

³Øö|.G11,239³2LGMN­O

MNP-QR:RP;

5

9C <1

5J ,,< ,< ,11

,1F ,<5 ,J5 K, 55

,II ,FF ,J1 ,,K ,J1 ,I9 ,CF C5 FJ

,FI 919 1FK FI ,1< 1IF 1K5 1,, K9 F1 ,J<

,5C KI 1FI ,15 ,C5 ,<< ,1C

95 ,C, ,,, ,1C ,1C

,I9 ,9< ,JI

9J K5

5, I<

J ,,F

³Øö|.G6,699³2LGMN­O

MNP-QR:RP;

K

,<< ,CF

,J1 5FJ 9< 9JK

955 <,C 5<J 1I< ,JF

CJJ 991 59C 5FF 59< 999 <JK 1,, 1K,

C91 I91 <<J 51I 919 <KK C,< <<I 1K< 5JJ 51J

9C, 1F< C1I 9,K <<9 <1< 91<

I< <9C 5I< 919 919

5J, 991 5C9

,11 1K1

<< 1<<

J 1JC

³Øö|.G19,062³2LGMN­O

MNP-QR:RP;

<

F, ,J9

CJ 15J 1K 199

1<C 5J9 1JC ,C1 C<

5<5 5<C 1J9 15< 1J5 51, 51C ,1< ,IF

5KF I15 <,1 ,F5 1<J 9F9 <J5 5F5 ,CK ,K9 1JF

1I1 ,I9 <19 19C 51C 5JF 1<J

I5 51, 11, 1<, 1<,

1FC 1KJ 1,9

IK ,CC

<5 ,<J

J 1J1

³Øö|.G12,732³2LGMN­O

MNP-QR:RP;

- 62 -