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Literaturstudie zum Einfluss der Klimaänderung auf die zukünftige Wasserkraftnutzung Abbildung 1: Stausee Gibidum oberhalb der Massaschlucht im Wallis. Foto: Nina Boogen Nina Boogen 10. Juni 2011

Literaturstudie zum Einfluss der Klimaänderung auf die ... zum Einfluss der... · 2021-2050, Referenz 1998-2009. deterministisches hydrologisches Modell Bernydro. Resultierende Abflussganglinien

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Page 1: Literaturstudie zum Einfluss der Klimaänderung auf die ... zum Einfluss der... · 2021-2050, Referenz 1998-2009. deterministisches hydrologisches Modell Bernydro. Resultierende Abflussganglinien

Literaturstudie zum Einfluss der Klimaänderung auf die zukünftige Wasserkraftnutzung

Abbildung 1: Stausee Gibidum oberhalb der Massaschlucht im Wallis. Foto: Nina Boogen

Nina Boogen

10. Juni 2011

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1

Vorgehensweise

Ein Grundstock an Studien waren durch die Hydropower’ 10 – 6th International Hydropower Conference 2010, in

Tromsø, Norwegen gegeben. Weitere Studien wurden durch die drei folgenden Strategien ermittelt: Suche im ISI Web

of Knowledge, Referenzen der einzelnen Paper und Suche im Google Scholar Netzwerk. Anschliessend wurde eine

passende Struktur zur Einteilung der gefundenen Studien gesucht. In einem ersten Schritt wurden die Paper in die

Kategorien „mit Modellen“ und rein deskriptive oder Review-Studien „ohne Modell“ geteilt. Danach wurden die

Studien mit integrierten Modellen weiter kategorisiert durch die Art ihrer Modelle. Dabei wurde zwischen vier

verschiednenen Modelltypen unterschieden: Hydro Model, Resevoir model, Operation model und Economic model.

Resultate

Es wurden 48 Studien untersucht, wobei 29 Studien zur Kategorie „mit Modellen“ gehörten und 19 rein deskriptive

oder Review-Studien sind. Von den 29 Studien mit Modellen haben:

• Alle (ausser Nr. 28+29) ein hydrologisches und/oder ein reservoir modell

• 9 ein ökonomisches Modell (Nr. 3, 7+47, 17+18+19, 22, 26, 30)

• 13 ein operationales Modell (Nr. 7+47, 16, 22, 24, 25, 28+29, 33, 34, 37, 42, 48)

• wobei 3 davon ein kombiniertes Modell (reservoir+operationell) haben (Nr. 33, 37 und 48)

• wobei 3 davon ein kombiniertes Modell (hydro+reservoir) haben (Nr. 24, 26 und 44)

Vier Studien sind nicht ganz kategorisierbar und gehören daher zu den spezielle Studien: eine GIS Analyse (Nr. 15),

eine volume change calculation (Nr. 27), ein risk assesment (Nr. 34) und ein statistischer Ansatz (Nr. 35). In Abbildung

2 sind die Studien in Abhängigkeit ihres Erscheinungsdatums aufgetragen. Ersichtlich ist ein Peak im Jahr 2010.

Abbildung 3 hingegen zeigt die Abhängigkeit des Studienortes. Die meisten Studien untersuchen Gebiete in der

Schweiz oder USA/Kanada.

Abbildung 2: Verteilung der Studien über die Jahre 1994-2011.

Abbildung 3: Verteilung der Studiengebiete.

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Im nachfolgenden werden die Studien in den beiden Katogorien „ohne Modelle“ (Tabelle 1) und „mit Modellen“

(Tabelle 2) getrennt in Tabellen zusammengefasst.

Tabelle 1: Artikel ohne Modelle (rein deskriptiv)

Referenz Art des Artikels Study area

1 It reviews and summarizes climate change studies which address hydrologic parameters critical to

hydropower production, and those studies which have specifically evaluated future hydropower

impacts.

California, the Pacific

Northwest, and the

Colorado River Basin.

2 The scope of this Technical Paper is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on hydrological

processes and regimes, and on freshwater resources – their availability, quality, uses and

management. The Technical Paper takes into account current and projected regional key

vulnerabilities and prospects for adaptation.

Global

6 Mit diesem Projekt wurden vorhandene Daten und Forschungsergebnisse zielgerichtet

gesammelt, bewertet und ausgewertet. Der Bericht stellt kurz und prägnant die von

Klimamodellen abgeleiteten Grundlagen dar und baut insbesondere auf dem Bericht des

Österreichischen Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaftsverbandes "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf

die österreichische Wasserwirtschaft" auf, beschäftigt sich aber mit den abzuleitenden konkreten

Strategien für die Wasserwirtschaft (Handlungsnotwendigkeiten/-optionen).

Österreich

8 Ziel: Fachleute aus der Wasserkraftwirtschaft und der Klimaforschung identifizieren gemeinsam

offene Strategie- und Forschungsfragen, die im Hinblick auf visionäre Lösungen im Bereich von

Wasserkraft und Klimawandel für den Zeithorizont 2030 gelöst werden sollten. Thesen zu vier

Bereichen: Ökologie, Sicherheit, Betrieb, Politik.

Schweiz

10 Case study of Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka is rich of water resources. There are 103 distinct river basins

covering 90 percent of the land area of the island. Therefore, Hydropower is the most

economically viable and environmentally friendly electrical energy source in Sri Lanka. The gross

theoretical hydropower potential in Sri Lanka is estimated at 8,000 GWh per year. Influenced by

Droughts, Floods, Changing Monsoon pattern, etc.

Sri Lanka

11 This report aims to evaluate the implications of the need to adapt to climate change for water

resource policy and regulation across Europe, assess the strengths and weaknesses of current

policies and regulations, and describe progress and activities in European countries. Country

studies in the Appendix.

Europe

12 Chapters about different sectors affected by climate change. Chapter 4.7 about Energy. Review of

studies and case studies as well.

Europe

13 Nearly 100% of this electric power supply is provided by hydropower from a cascaded group of

run-of-river interconnected hydroelectric power plants, 270MW of which are located on one

river, the Shire River in the southern part of the country. The remaining 4.5MW is provided by

Malawi’s only mini hydro scheme, located on a small river, Wovwe River, in the northern part of

the country. Malawi’s hydropower schemes have been affected by the impact of climate change

and general environmental degradation for years, Problems: Droughts, Floods, Siltation and

Aquatic weeds. Adaption strategies.

Malawi

14 In this paper we summarize findings from recent work related to climate and hydropower

potential. Both historical and forward looking studies have been reviewed. We have focused on

the hydrology, specifically inflows and the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) that

have the greatest impact on inflow.

Global

20 General overview including economic factor of liberalisation (Swiss) Alps

21 GHG Emissions from resevoirs/dams India

23 Annex III (1995-2000), on Hydropower and the Environment, identified the most significant

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challenges to the hydropower sector and recommendations were made covering five areas: 1.

Energy Policy Framework 2. Decision-Making Process 3. Comparison of Hydropower Project

Alternatives 4. Improving Environmental Management of Hydropower Plants 5. Sharing Benefits

with Local Communities. These Recommendations have been updated based on best practice.

31 A review of studies adressing the impacts of climate change on electricity market, on electricty

demand and electricity supply (for Hydropower, thermal power, bioenergy, wind and solar

power).

Global

36 Gute deskriptive Übersicht, neben den expliziten wasserkraftspezifischen Aspekten sind

insbesondere auch die übergeordneten Entwicklungen am Strommarkt auf Angebots- und

Nachfrageseite für eine umfassende energiewirtschaftliche Bewertung der zukünftigen Rolle der

Wasserkraft innerhalb des gesamten Kraftwerksportfolios zu berücksichtigen (Liberalisierung,

Entwicklung des europäischen Strombinnenmarktes, etc.).

Österreich

39 The Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs) designed to mitigate, compensate or

rehabilitate those being negatively affected by the construction and operation of the HPPs could

consider measures that contribute to energy efficiency and reduced emissions. In this paper we

propose to implement so-called Energy and Climate Planning (ECPs) as an integral part of ESMPs.

The objective of the ECPs is to put in place a long-term strategy. This paper identifies two

channels by which hydropower can cope with the climate challenge and at the same time

contribute to sustainable development at the local level: Sustainable design & local development.

40 In mehreren Workshops wurden Klimaszenarien für das Jahr 2050 erarbeitet. Basierend auf den

Szenarien werden Vulnerabilitäten in den Bereichen Wasserhaushalt, Energie, Landwirtschaft,

Ökologie, Gesundheit, Tourismus, Infrastrukturen, urbane Schweiz untersucht. In diesem Kapitel

werden die Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung auf die Wasserwirtschaft für folgende Bereiche

detaillierter behandelt: Veränderungen in natürlichen Gewässern, Naturgefahren Wasser,

Wasserangebot und Wasserbedarf, Wassernutzung, Bewirtschaftung der Wasserressourcen.

Kurzer Abschnitt zu Energie.

Schweiz

43 Rivers of Kerala are comparatively small and being entirely monsoon-fed, some of them

practically turn into rivulets in summer, especially in the highlands. In spite of the heavy rainfall

and numerous water resources, Kerala faces serious water shortages on certain occasions leading

to power crisis, as a result of irregularities in temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall, slope of

the terrain and improper water resources management and conservation measures. Challenges in

power sector: Ecologists, Government works slow, Fast growing demand, safety issues…

Kerala, Indien

45 This paper considers two geographic regions where significant climate change may occur and

assesses how possible future precipitation distribution and water run-of may affect the viability

of hydro electric power. Considerations: New plants, existing plants, Network implications,

Economic considerations, Generating costs.

Zambesi basin, Central

and Eastern Europe

46 Zusammenfassung Stand der Forschung in Deutschland, Klimamodelle, Szenarienanalysen,

Vorschläge zur Adaption. Auf der Basis der bisher vorliegenden Berechnungen wird in

Deutschland allgemein für die nähere Zukunft mit einer Mindererzeugung aus Wasserkraft um 1

bis 4 %, für die fernere Zukunft von bis zu 15 % gerechnet.

Laufwasserkraftwerke

in den südlichen

Bundesländern,

Deutschland

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Tabelle 2: Artikel mit Modellen

Referenz Climate Data Hydro Model Resevoir model Operation model Economic model Study area

3 1. ‘most likely scenario’ assumes temperature

increase of +2°C and precipitation increase of

10% 2. ‘alternative warm scenario’ assumes

+3°C and -10% in precipitation (higher

frequency of La Nina), Ministry of

Environment (1990)

Modified water balance model:

main inputs are catchment

hypsometry, runoff, albedo,

mean monthly precipitation,

temperature, solar radiation.

The model estimates annual

and monthly components of

catchment precipitation,

evaporation, and storage.

multiple regression with

serial correlation

(Durban-Watson d Test)

with Heating Degree Days

(HDD) and Cooling Degree

Days (CDD

New Zealand, 80% of electricity

from hydro, yearly production of

15’000 GWh, 7’305 MW of it in the

southern alps.

4 1. GCM downscaling to RCM (for control

period and scenarios)

2. Putting climate database

into hydrological model (water

balance model, HBV model)

3. Getting water

resource scenarios

A standard set of 6 drainage basins

was developed. These basins are

fairly representative of climate

regions and of prime water related

interests in the country (Sweden).

The 4 northernmost basins are of

special interest to the hydropower

industry, although there are power

plants in all 6 rivers.

5 The analyzed climate change scenarios were

derived from 19 climate experiments obtained

within the EU research project PRUDENCE

(Christensen et al. 2002). They are the results

of 9 state-to-the-art Regional Climate Models

(RCMs) driven by three coupled Atmosphere-

Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs),

respectively HadCM3/HadAM3H,

ECHAM4/OPYC3 and ARPEGE.

A conceptual, reservoir-based

precipitation-runoff

transformation model called

GSM-SOCONT (Hydrological

model like in Schaefli, 2005).

For the glacierized catchments,

the glacier surface

corresponding to this future

scenario is updated through a

conceptual glacier surface

evolution model.

Swiss Alps, 11 catchments

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7+47 The GCM information, consisting of large-scale

surface meteorological data (e.g. monthly

surface precipitation), GCM data is effectively

downscaled and bias-adjusted. […] a control

and a 1% greenhouse-gas- increase scenario.

A generator of hydrologic-

model forecast input vectors,

whereby

An ensemble of

reservoir inflow

forecasts

Management component for

generating non-inferior

alternatives of operational

policy at a given reliability level

(turbine load dispatching, short-

range energy generation

scheduling, long/mid-range

reservoir management).

Based on 1995 California

monthly energy prices

The three forks (North, Middle and

South Fork) of the American River

drain approximately 4800 km2 of

the mountainous terrain of central

California (with elevations up to

3000 m) and join to provide inflow

to Folsom Lake. Folsom's

hydropower station includes three

turbines, each with a power range

of 15 - 70.5 MW.

9 UKMO Hadley Centre HadRM3 regional

climate model (RCM)

Grid based water balance

model (G2G), solution 1km

Scottland: 47 modelled

catchments, 6 catchments

selected for further analysis

15 12 GCMs with 20th century GRDC data and

future (scenario A1B) to evaluate the global

trends of runoff.

Analysis with GIS database. The GIS has been used here as a tool to merge and analyze different databases in order to

gain insights of the anticipated changes.

165 global basins of more than 28

years of data

16 Klimamodell ENSEMBLE, herunterskaliert auf

25 km Auflösung, Klimaprojektion zwischen

2021-2050, Referenz 1998-2009.

deterministisches

hydrologisches Modell

Bernydro.

Resultierende

Abflussganglinien der

Klimaszenarien wurden

ins Betriebsmodell des

Wasserkraftwerkes

Löntsch gegeben

(TimeSteps Energy 2010).

Stromnachfrage und PFC

wurden dabei konstant

gelassen.

Wasserkraftwerk Löntsch,

Hochdruckspeicherkraftwerk,

durchschnittliche

Energieproduktion pro Jahr: 116

GWh. Gespiesen durch den

Klöntalersee mit nutzbarem

Volumen von 40 Mio m3.

17+18+19 Three climate change scenarios (all available

from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre) were

used in this study. Two are from the results of

the HadCM2 GCM developed by the Hadley

Centre at the UK Meteorological Office They

differ in that one, HadCM2-S, incorporates the

effects of aerosols that have the tendency to

cool the atmos- phere. The third scenario is

from the ECHAM4 GCM developed by the Max

The ‘WatBal’ model Reservoir model: The

routine, based on

that used by the HEC-

5 package (USACE,

1990), assesses the

feasibility of meeting

energy targets while

taking account of the

end storage levels

The electricity market model

uses the energy production

estimates from the reservoir

model to determine revenue in

each period. This component

provides measures of the

financial performance of the

project based on the revenue

earned together with user-

Case study: The 1600MW Batoka

Gorge project. It is planned for the

Zambezi River upstream of Lake

Kariba on the Zambia-Zimbabwe

border

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Planck Institute fur Meteorologie. and flow or energy

limits.

entered data such as project

costs, inflation and interest

rates and the financing

structure. The financial analysis

routines are based on standard

economic appraisal methods,

and determine a range of

measures that include net

present value (NPV), internal

rate of return (IRR), discounted

payback, and unit energy cost.

22 The Norwegian Meteorological Institute offers

downscaled time series on precipitation and

temperature for a number of different climate

models (GCM). This study will employ

empirical-statistical downscaled time series

(ESD) for Tromsø, with time resolution 3

months (Benestad 2008). Climate predictions

in this paper will follow the SRES A1b scenario

(IPCC 2000).

Hydrology is simulated by a

Rainfall-Runoff model (HBV

model), considering both

changes in climate and changes

in glaciers during the period up

to 2100

The designed hydro

power system contains

two reservoirs, two

power plants and one

transfer tunnel diverting

four streams, Future

power production is

simulated using the

nMAG model, calculating

bypass, turbine water,

electricity production,

flood spill and reservoir

level. All calculations are

performed in daily

resolution. Each element

in the hydro power

system is characterized as

a specific module, routing

water algorithmic

downstream the

watercourse

Market Analysis: Two

alternative price scenarios were

identified: 0.28 NOK/kWh and

0.60 NOK/kWh in 2040

(Discounted to 2010 the

alternative equals 0.50

NOK/kWh).

Catchments along Ullsfjorden,

Northern Norway, are subject to a

possible hydro power

development of 150-200 GWh the

coming years.

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24 Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie mit dem

Globalen- Zirkulations-Modell ECHAM5,

Klimaszenario wird ein A1B-Szenario nach

IPCC verwendet.

Langfristbewirtschaftungsmodell WBalMo (Water

Balance Model). In diesem Modell werden die

Bewirtschaftungsprozesse der Wasserressourcen und die

Bedarfsprozesse der Wassernutzer deterministisch

betrachtet. Die natürlichen Eingangsdaten, wie z.B.

Niederschlag, Verdunstung oder natürliche Abflüsse,

hingegen werden stochastisch erzeugt.

Die elektrische Leistung

der Wasserkraftanlagen

Einzugsgebiet der Mulde

(Nebenfluss der Mulde)

25 Aufbereiten der Klimaszenarien für die

Perioden 2020-2050 aus verschiedenen

Klimamodellen für verschiedene Regionen der

Schweiz in hoher räumlicher und zeitlicher

Auflösung. Klimadaten aus PRUDENCE und

ENSEMBLES, downscaling auf die schweizer

Ebene.

Kopplung der

Klimaszenarien mit dem

hydrologischen Modell

PREVAH

An 3 - 5 ausgewählten

Fallbeispielen

(Kraftwerken) sollen

mittels Kopplung von

hydrologischen und

betrieblichen Modellen

die Auswirkungen der

Klimaänderung auf den

Betrieb detailliert

analysiert werden.

Schweiz, Fallstudie ist [15].

26 Two different state-of- the-art GCMs:

theHadCM3model and the ECHAM4/OPYC3

model. The applied scenarios are largely

consistent with the no-climate-policy IPCC-

IS92a scenario esti- mates of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC, 1992) and the intermediate Baseline-A

scenario as developed by the Dutch National

Institute of Public Health and Environment

(RIVM). They represent a set of ‘business-as-

usual’ assumptions about population growth,

economic growth and economic activity, and

imply an average annual increase of carbon

dioxide emissions of 1% per year.

Integrated global water model WaterGAP (Water—

Global Assessment and Prognosis). This model

transforms current and future climate and water use

conditions into time series of river flows. It thus allows

for a combined analysis of the effects of climate change

as well as demographic, socioeconomic and techno-

logical trends on large-scale discharge regimes.

WaterGAP comprises two main components, a Global

Hydrology Model and a Global Water Use Model.

Calculating of Gross

hydropower potential.

Europe

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27 A novel method has been presented to infer glacier volume changes from length changes with help of a two-parameter (length and volume) dynamical system of

macroscopic glacier dynamics. For 12 glaciers, a dynamically equivalent simple model (DESM) was found which reproduces their length and volume changes.

12 Glaciers in Switzerland

28+29 27: Projections of the NCAR PCM and

GFDL CM2 climate models run under the

greenhouse gas emission scenarios SRES

A2 and SRES B1

28: A Dry Warm Scenario (GFDL A2-39), a

Wet Warm Scenario (PCM A2-39), and a

Warming-Only Scenario

Energy-Based Hydropower

Optimization Model (EBHOM),

which is based on energy flows

and storage instead of water

volume balances. EBHOM is a

monthly- based optimization

model that requires all input

variables including monthly

runoff, storage capacity, and

generation capacity in energy

units. EBHOM is a deterministic

optimization model, EBHOM

finds operations which yield the

highest possible revenue for the

known inflows in a given year

California’s hydropower system is

composed of high and low

elevation power plants. There are

more than 150 high-elevation

power plants, at elevations above

1,000 feet (300 m). Most have

modest reservoir storage

capacities, but supply roughly 74%

of California’s in-state

hydropower. 137 high-elevation

hydropower plants for which the

data were complete for 14 years

30 GCMs: CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2,

ECHAM4, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, NCAR-

PCM. -> Downscaling.

Emissions scenario: A1B, A1T, A1FI, A2,

B1, B2.

Variable infiltration capacity

(VIC) hydrologic model

Two reservoir models are

run: ColSim, which is run on

the entire ‘perturbed’

climate record of 1916–

2002, and Genesys, which

covers a more limited

period (1930–1978), but

simulates a larger number

of generation facilities and

is used by the NWPCC.

We simply apply the

NWPCC’s forecast for

2006 bulk electricity

prices. Future electricity

prices constitute a major

source of uncertainty, but

we use this approach to

allow direct comparison

with the NWPCC results.

Pacific Northwest Hydropower:

the Northwest Power and

Conservation Council (NWPCC)

conducted an initial assessment of

potential impacts of climate

change on the hydropower

system, but these results are not

incorporated in the risk model

upon which the 2005 Plan

recommendations are based.

32 Two equilibrium scenarios (UK

Meteorological Office High Resolution

model, UKHI and Canadian Climate Centre

model, CCC) referring to years 2020, 2050

and 2100 and one transient scenario (UK

Water balance model: The

main input parameters of the

model are precipitation,

temperature, relative

humidity, sunshine duration

Reservoir model: monthly

water budget

Northern Greece, Aliakmon River,

Polyfyoto reservoir (1 of 3

multipurpose reservoirs),

minimum garantueed energy:

199.4 GWh/a, mean garantueed

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High Resolution Transient output, UKTR)

referring to years 2032 and 2080 were

applied.

and wind speed which,

through the operation of a

number of subroutines

estimate the rain, snow,

snowmelt, snow storage,

evapotranspiration,

groundwater storage, soil

moisture and finally the

stream runoff.

energy: 515 GWh/a

33 Climate projections from five general

circulation models (GCM) for two

greenhouse gas emission scenarios and

three temporal horizons (2020, 2050 and

2080).

The hydrological regime of

the recent past and the

regimes of 30 climate

projections are considered.

For each hydrological regime, weekly reservoir operating rules

are calculated with a dynamic and stochastic optimization

model. Simulations of the water resource system with adapted

operating rules in these climate change contexts are compared

with the management of the water resource system at the

control period (1961–1990).

The Peribonka River watershed is

located in the southern center of

the province of Quebec, Canada.

The water resource is exploited

exclusively for hydro-power by Rio

Tinto Alcan, with an installed

capacity of 1165 MW. Two large

reservoirs store water (Lake-

Manouane - 2,700 hm3 and

Passes-Dangereuses - 5,200 hm3)

and they feed three power plants

laid out in series on the Peribonka

river (Chute-des- Passes, Chute-

du-Diable and Chute-a-la-Savane).

34 …are based on two global climate models:

ECHAM4/ OPYC3 (European Centre

Hamburg model 4/Ocean and isoPYCnal

coordinates model 3) and HAdAm3H (the

Hadley Centre global Atmospheric model

3H).

The simulations are carried

out with the Watershed

Simulation and Forecasting

System (WSFS), developed by

FEI on the basis of the HBV

model

Technical risk analysis: qualitative brainstorming-based risk identification methods such as

what-if analysis and focused group interviews were chosen as the basic building blocks of the

method and its development. The functional modelling method was used to support hazard

identification at the plant level. The plant was divided according to its different functions

into the energy resource area, hydropower plant area and distribution area. All the inputs of

the environmental factors as well as the inputs and outputs from the previous functional

area to the next functional area were identified. The functions were described using a box

with incoming and outgoing arrows. The functional model is therefore a simple flow diagram

of the plant. In addition to risk analysis and other relevant standards, the study comprised a

The procedure was tested at two

hydropower plants in the Kemijoki

area in Finland. The Kemijoki

hydropower company’s plants are

located along the Kemijoki River,

the largest river in Finland. The

Kemijoki River is 550 km long and

has a catchment area of about

51,000 km2 and average flow of

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literature study, interviews, brainstorming sessions and desk work in order to design a new

risk analysis method procedure. All these research methods were used iteratively; after each

step, the developed risk analysis procedure was re-examined and improved as deemed

necessary.

about 500 m3 s21.

35 We decided to define several hypothetical

climate change scenarios. First,

temperature was assumed to remain

constant and then it was perturbed with a

uniform increase of 1 and 2°C throughout

the year. For each of these temperature

change cases, scenarios were investigated

where the historic precipitation values

were affected by the factors 0.8, 0.9, 1.0,

1.1 and 1.2. The impact of the increased

temperature on the water equivalent of

snowfall was taken into account as

follows

We developed a statistical methodology that links historic hydrogeneration values to climatic observations properly

manipulated to reflect the hydrologic cycle realistically. The first step was to develop a relationship between hydrogeneration

availability and change in climate parameters. Hydrogeneration availability is a function of streamflow, or runoff water, which

will pass through the turbines. Runoff water, in turn, is a function of precipitation, evapotranspiration and other parameters.

The Sacramento, Eel and Russian

Rivers basin, a large basin located

in northern California, with an

approximate size of 240x350km.

37 From the U.S. Department of Energy and

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM).

This study focuses on three climate

projections for the 21st century based on

a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) global

emissions scenario, evaluated with

respect to a control climate scenario

based on static 1995 emissions. Time-

varying monthly PCM (PCM is a coupled

land-atmosphere-ocean GCM that

simulates the evolution of climate and its

dependence on greenhouse gas (GHG)

concentrations) temperature and

precipitation changes were statistically

Macro- scale hydrologic

simulation model (VIC model)

ColSim explicitly simulates reservoir operations by using

naturalized inflows (observed or simulated with the VIC

model) at each river node. And alternative reservoir

operating policies for mitigating performance reductions.

The Columbia River basin (CRB)

covers portions of seven western

states and the Canadian province

of British Columbia, and has a total

drainage area about the size of the

state of Texas (Figure 1). The

water resources of the CRB have

been extensively developed over

the past 60 years for flood control,

hydropower production, irrigation

and navigation. There are 36,400

MW (average annual generation is

about 16,500 MW) of installed

hydropower generation capacity at

214 dams (federal, municipal, and

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downscaled. For comparison with the

direct statistical downscaling approach, a

dynamical downscaling approach using a

regional climate model (RCM) was also

used to derive hydrologic model forcings

for 20- year subsets from the PCM control

climate (1995–2015) scenario and from

the three BAU climate (2040–2060)

projections.

independent) within the CRB.

38 NCAR- PCM scenarios for the 2000-2099

period were downscaled with the

multiplicative cascade ß-model

WATFLOOD hydrological model

over a control period (1979-

1999) and two future time

periods centred in 2050 and

2090

Two Alpine basins (1840 and 236

km2) in Northern Italy relevant for

irrigation water supply and water

power generation.

41+42 In the present study, the necessary RCM

statistics for the times series perturbation

are the result of the global-mean warming

- regional climate - scaling methodology

presented by Hingray et al. (2007a).

Model for the production of local scale

meteorological time series (precipitation

and temperature) based on global and

regional climate model outputs

Hydrological discharge model

and a model of glacier surface

evolution

Water management

model (40)

Hydropower management

model (41)

Swiss Alps, Case study: Mauvoisin

hydropower plant.

44 The climate-change scenario was a

regional model 'nested' within the Global

Circulation Model (GCM) developed by

the Hadley Centre, Bracknell, Berkshire.

The regional model has a resolution of 50

km and, using 1961-1990 as a

climatological baseline

A simple water-balance model Grande Dixence hydro-electric

scheme, Valais, Switzerland

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48 HBVPINE hydrological model is a

conceptual hydrological model. The

model runs on daily values of

precipitation, mean temperature

and monthly estimates of potential

evapotranspiration.

The Telemark flood warning system was developed by

integrating a number of computer models and data

sources into one system. The objective of the system is to

simulate inflow to the lower Telemark river system

during high flow conditions and provide the user with a

tool to test operational plans for reservoirs and evaluate

flooding in rivers and reservoirs. The system contains

hydrological inflow forecasting, reservoir operation and

river routing models to predict and propagate inflow

through the water course.

Telemark river system is located in

Southern Norway within the

Telemark County. Three major

reservoirs Tinnsjøen, Heddalvatn

and Norsjøen operated in series

regulate the inflow mainly for

hydropower production and flood

mitigation purposes

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