OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS:

OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik

Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik

INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK?

11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure

of a Hydrogen Economy

O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns



ROLE OF HYDROGENROLE OF HYDROGEN

The scarceness of fossil fuels and the resulting price increases

have put alternative energies on the agenda.

Hydrogen:• may play an important role• enables one to store energy and put it into end use at the time

and place desired• production sources: electricity (nuclear energy), renewable

energy sources (wind, sun), electricity produced during hours of low consumption by a country’s electric power system

A large-scale introduction of hydrogen into an economy requires that

the risks associated with it should be at least not higher than those

of existing technologies, e.g. LPG

1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

INFRASTRUCTUREINFRASTRUCTURE

Potential hydrogen applications in Germany: cars – fuel cell supplying an electric motor or combustion engine households – fuel cell combined heat and power units (FC-CHP)

In order to implement such systems the following infrastructure is needed:



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

STUDY OBJECTSSTUDY OBJECTS

Activities in the hydrogen economy and study

objects representative of its risk

ACTIVITY OBJECT OF ANALYSIS

Hydrogen production GH2 storage

Storage at depot LH2 storage

Hydrogen pipeline GH2

Hydrogen road tanker LH2 storage

Hydrogen private car LH2 storage

CHP-plant LH2 storage



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

RISK ASSESSMENT MODELRISK ASSESSMENT MODEL



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

EVENT TREE FOR GH2 RELEASEEVENT TREE FOR GH2 RELEASE

Accident scenarios are described by event trees, based on experience with accidents.



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

GH2 STORAGEGH2 STORAGE



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

FAULT TREEFAULT TREE



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

RELIABILITY RELIABILITY STUDYSTUDY

Component failureMedian in 10-

6 hr-1 Uncertainty factor K95

Test interval in

hrs

Pneumatic valve 17.8 2.2 876

Pressure switch 0,93 8.44 43800

Spring-loaded safety valve 1.13 8.4 43800

Compressor does not stop 1.4 4.0 876

Examples of reliability data and test intervals

Analytical solution of the fault tree leads to 96 minimal cut sets. Characteristic distribution parameters of the frequency of release:

• 5th centile: 3.9·10-8 yr-1

• Expected value: 1.0·10-6 yr-1

• 95th centile: 3.8·10-6 yr-1



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

Death by overpressure Death by heat radiation

Death by tank fragment impact

Pressure wave:

0Y 77.1 6.91 ln p Heat radiation:

4 4 / 3Y 38.48 2.56 ln 10 t I

Probit equations:



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

RISKRISK

Individual risk was calculated by combining the expected frequency of tank rupture with the conditional probabilities of death, weighted by corresponding probabilities of the event tree.

• uncertainties of the results for the consequences were not assessed

• risk is low and rapidly decreases with distance – no one in direct vicinity of the plant (exclusion area)



1. Introduction

2. H2 Economy

3. Methods

4. Example

5. Risk

6. Conclusions

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

1. Risk of the hydrogen economy is not higher than that of a competing option, namely LPG.

2. Risk of the storage of gaseous hydrogen under pressure analysed here is low and can be tolerated, if current international risk objectives, i.e. individual risk around 10-6, are used as a yardstick.

3. There is no obstacle from the perspective of safety to implementing a “hydrogen economy”



INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK?

11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Further details to be found under: www.uni-magdeburg.de/iaut/as

Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure

of a Hydrogen Economy

O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns

Documents

OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: