The distribution, characteristics and behaviour of mass movements

The distribution, characteristics and behaviour of mass movements

triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake 2005, NW Himalaya,

Pakistan

Die Verbreitung, Eigenschaften und das Verhalten von

Massenbewegungen, die durch das Erdbeben in Kaschmir 2005

ausgelöst wurden, NW Himalaya, Pakistan

Der Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät

der Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg

zur

Erlangung des Doktorgrades Dr. rer. nat.

vorgelegt von

Muhammad Basharat

aus

Muzaffarabad, Pakistan

2012

ii

Als Dissertation genehmigt von der Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät

der Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg

Tag der mündlichen Prüfung : 10.05.2012 Vorsitzender der:

Promotionskommission: Prof. Dr. Rainer Fink

Erstberichterstatter: Prof. Dr. Joachim Rohn

Zweitberichterstatter: Prof. Dr. Michael Moser

iii

Dedicated to sweet memories of my beloved father (Late)

iv

Acknowledgements

First of all my special gratitude is to my supervisor Professor Dr. Joachim Rohn for giving me an

opportunity to work under his supervision. His valuable guidance and suggestions throughout the research

work kept my confidence and spirit high. Throughout this work he provided me a good environment,

special care, many good ideas, valuable comments, and critical review of this thesis.

I owe my deepest gratitude to Professor Dr. Michael Moser for his kind help, valuable suggestions,

guidance, and critical review of this thesis.

I am grateful to Professor Dr. Mirza Shahid Baig, Institute of Geology, University of Azad Jammu and

Kashmir for his co-supervision during the field work.

I sincerely thank to Dr. Dominik Ehret, who facilitating me to have a good start of my PhD and for his

guidance during the field.

I greatly acknowledged the University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad and Higher Education

Commission (HEC) Pakistan, for granting me a scholarship under Faculty Development Program for my

PhD research work.

I would like to acknowledge Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) and Geological

Survey of Pakistan (GSP) for providing me the satellite data used in this study. I also acknowledged

Planning and Development department AJK, Muzaffarabad for providing the topographical maps.

I sincerely express my gratitude to Professor Dr. Sabir Khan, director Institute of Geology University of

Azad Jammu and Kashmir for providing transport facility during the field work. I extend my thanks to

Professor Dr. Rustam Khan for his kind support and help. I also want to thanks all my colleagues of the

Institute of Geology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

I greatly appreciate the various kind of assistance from Mrs. Beate Wuttke during my stay at GeoZentrum

Nordbayern. I extend my thanks to Mrs. Gudrun Klein for providing the literature during the research work.

I am grateful to my colleagues Luo Jin, Markus Schleier (special thanks for the German translation of the

abstract), Bi Renneng, Johannes Wiedenmann, Jiang Jiwei and Zeng Bin for their cooperation and

providing me a good environment during my work. I am also thankful to my friend Mr. Basharat Ahmed

for his valuable suggestions and cooperation during the work.

Thanks also to my friends Dr. Nasir Khan, Dr. Aziz, and Mr. Adeel Nasir providing good company during

my stay in Erlangen.

I would like to express deep gratitude to my father (who did not live to see the end of this work) for his

love, affection and support throughout my life. With all my heart I thanks to my all family members,

especially my elder brother Khawaja Muhammad Nasim Advocate, who kept in touch with me during the

whole period and took care of my family during my absence.

Last, but not least my heartfelt love to my wife Zahida and my children Aimen, Wasif and Ayan for their

patience and understanding about my work and spent four years without my love and care.

Muhammad Basharat

v

Kurzfassung

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Verteilung, den Eigenschaften und dem Verhalten

von Massenbewegungen, die bei dem Erdbeben in Kaschmir 2005 auslöst wurden. Das

Hauptaugenmerk der Arbeit liegt darauf, die statistischen und empirischen Beziehungen zwischen

der Massenbewegungsverteilung und den geologischen, sowie geometrischen Kenndaten zu

analysieren. Zusätzlich wurden Bestandsverzeichnisse von Massenbewegungs Muzaffarabad-

Stadt, sowie den Gebieten um das Jhelum-Tal und das Neelum-Tal angefertigt und in Karten

dargestellt. Zu diesem Zweck wurden Geländeuntersuchungen mit der Interpretation von

Satellitendaten kombiniert. Insgesamt 1.460 Massenbewegungsereignisse wurden aus den SPOT-

Satellitenbildern identifiziert und interpretiert. Von diesen wurden 127 während der

Geländeuntersuchungen vor Ort dokumentiert.

Weiterhin wurde bei diesen eine Klassifizierung in fünf Typen von Massenbwegungen „rock

avalanches, rock falls, debris falls, slump and landslides“ nach Varnes (1978) vorgenommen.

Die Bestandsverzeichnissse zeigen an, dass 3,9% des untersuchten Gebietes von Erdbeben

induzierten Massenbewegungen betroffen ist.

Ein Kapitel dieser Arbeit erörtert vier großmaßstäbliche Massenbewegungen als Fallbeispiele, die

während des Erdbebens aktiviert oder reaktiviert wurden. Diese Ereignisse wurden bezüglich der

geologischen, strukturellen, geometrischen und geotechnischen Charakteristika analysiert. Im

Rahmen des Fallbeispiels des Bergsturzes Hattian Bala („Sturzstrom“) wurde die

Massenbewegung, basierend auf detaillierten Geländeuntersuchungen, geologisch und strukturell

im Maßstab 1:10.000 kartiert. Die Auswertung zeigt, dass die Geometrie und die Versagensart

dieser reaktivierten Massenbewegung sehr stark von der Tektonik und der Lithologie gesteuert

wurden.

Die anderen drei bedeutenden Massenbewegungen, wie der Langarpura und der Neelidandi

Bergsturz, sowie die Massenbewegung Panjgran wurden zum ersten Mal in dieser Studie

ausführlich untersucht und dokumentiert. Die Reaktivierung dieser Massenbewegungen am

hangenden Block der reaktivierten Muzaffarabad-Störung und nahe des Epizentrums legt nahe,

dass die Bodenbewegung, die diese Massenbewegungen ausgelöst hat, hier besonders hoch war.

Um den Zusammenhang zwischen der Verteilung der Massenbewegungen und ihren ursächlichen

Faktoren, wie etwa Abstand zum Epizentrum und Abstand zu aktivierten Störungen,

topographische Parameter (Hangneigung, Exposition, Höhe) und geologische Einheiten zu

untersuchen, wurde eine statistische Analyse vorgenommen. Die Karte der

Massenbewegungsverteilung wurde anhand von SPOT Satellitenbildern unter Einbezug von

vi

eigenen Geländeaufnahmen erstellt. Die Entfernung der Massenbewegungen zum Epizentrum und

zur Entfernung aktivierter Störungen wurde berechnet. Der Index für die Massenbewegungs-

Konzentration bei den statistischen Untersuchungen wurde anhand der Anzahl von

Massenbewegungen pro km² berechnet. Die Berechnung der topographischen Parameter, wie

Hangneigung, Exposition und Höhe erfolgte unter Verwendung eines ASTER basierten digitalen

Höhenmodells (DEM). Die geologischen Parameter wurden bezüglich der lithologischen

Charakteristika untersucht, um den Einfluss der Lithologie auf die Massenbewegungs-

Konzentration zu verstehen.

Die Massenbewegungs-Konzentration ist in der kambrischen Muzaffarabad-Formation aufgrund

des Auftretens von stark zerrütteten, zerscherten Dolomiten und des Auftretens im Nahbereich des

Hangenden Blocks der aktiven Muzaffarabad-Störung besonders hoch.

Die Analyse führt zu der Schlussfolgerung, dass die Verteilung der durch das Erdbeben

ausgelösten Massenbewegungen viel mehr von der Entfernung zur Erdbebenquelle (Epizentrum,

Störung) abhängig ist, als von den topographischen Parametern und den geologischen Einheiten.

Eine empirische Analyse bezüglich verschiedener Parameter von Felsstürzen wurde anhand von

103 Massenbewegungsereignissen ausgeführt. Der Zusammenhang zwischen wichtigen

Parametern, wie etwa Volumen, Fahrböschungswinkel, Schattenwinkel, Hangneigung der

Felssturzhalde, Fallhöhe, Oberflächengrösse und der Reichweite wurde analysiert. Die Analyse

liefert zum einen ein besseres Verständnis betreffend der physikalischen Charakteristika und dem

Verhalten der Massenbewegungen, die durch das Kashmir Erdbeben von 2005 ausgelöst wurden,

und stellt darüber hinaus bedeutende Datensätze zur Gefahren- und Risikobeurteilung bereit. Die

Analyse zeigte, dass der Fahrböschungswinkel teilweise vom Volumen der Massenbewegung

abhängig ist. Allerdings beeinflussen auch die anderen Faktoren, wie Hangsteilheit, hohes Relief

des Gebietes sowie die geologischen Gegebenheiten die Reichweite der untersuchten

Massenbewegungen. Darüber hinaus sind die Werte für den Fahrböschungswinkel bei einigen

Massenbewegungen mit kleinem Volumen, verglichen mit einigen größeren Bewegungen, sehr

hoch. Die Analyse zeigt einen linearen Trend zwischen Fallhöhe und Reichweite.

Zwischen dem Fahrböschungswinkel und Fallhöhe sowie der Reichweite wurden keine

Zusammenhänge gefunden. Das deutet darauf hin, dass der Fahrböschungswinkel keinen direkten

Einfluss auf die Reichweite und die Fallhöhe hat. Anhand von Schattenwinkel und Hangneigung

der Schutthalde zeigen die Analysen keinen klaren Zusammenhang zwischen dem Volumen der

Massenbewegung und der Reichweite.

Beim Vergleich von hier vorgestellten Daten des Kashmir Erdbebens stimmen die Ergebnisse

größtenteils mit publizierten Daten aus anderen Teilen der Erde überein.

vii

Abstract

The presented study deals with the distribution, characteristics and behaviour of mass movements

triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, in Kashmir region of northern Pakistan. The main

focus of this work was to analyze the statistical and empirical relationships between mass

movement distribution and geological and geometrical features. In addition, mass movement

inventory maps of Muzaffarabad city and the areas around the Jhelum valley and the Neelum

valley were produced. For this purpose, ground based field investigations were combined with

satellite data. In total 1,460 mass movement events were identified and interpreted from SPOT

imageries. Of these, 127 mass movements were documented during the ground based investigation

and classified into five types such as “rock avalanches, rock falls, debris falls, slump and

landslides” according to Varnes (1978). The inventory maps indicate that 3.9 % of the area was

affected by earthquake induced mass movements. The analysis suggests that the diverse

geological, tectonic, seismic, geotechnical and morphological conditions control the extent and

geographical distribution of the mass movements.

A section of this study is discussing four large scale mass movements activated or reactivated

during the earthquake, as case studies. These events were analyzed in terms of geological,

structural, geometrical and geotechnical characteristics. In the case study of the Hattian Bala rock

avalanche, the mass movement was mapped geologically and structurally at a scale of 1:10,000

based on detailed field investigations. The analysis indicates that the geometry and failure mode of

this reactivated mass movement was strongly controlled by tectonics and lithology.

The other three significant mass movements such as the Langarpura and Neelidandi rock falls and

the Panjgran slump and rock fall were investigated and documented circumstantial for the first

time in this study. The reactivation of these mass movements on the hanging wall block of the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and close to the epicentral area suggests that the ground motion

triggering these mass movements was very high.

The statistical analysis was performed to analyze the relationship between the mass movement

distribution and their causal factors such as source of earthquake (epicenter, Muzaffarabad Fault),

topographic parameters (slope, aspect, elevation) and geological units. The mass movement

distribution map was prepared using SPOT images incorporated with field data. The mass

movement distances were calculated by using two distance definitions (distance to epicenter and

distance to Muzaffarabad Fault). The index of mass movement concentration for statistical

analysis was calculated based on the number of mass movements per km2. Topographical

parameters such as slope angle, slope aspect and elevation were calculated by using a ASTER

based DEM. The geological parameters were examined according to their lithological

viii

characteristics to understand the influence of lithology on the mass movement concentration. The

mass movement concentration was notably high in the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation due to

the occurrence of highly fractured, sheared dolomites situated on the hanging wall block of the

active Muzaffarabad Fault.

The analysis leads to the conclusion that the distribution of mass movements triggered by the

earthquake is mainly depending on the distance from the earthquake source (epicenter,

Muzaffarabad Fault) rather than on topographical parameters and geological units.

An empirical analysis among various parameters of rock falls was conducted for 103 mass

movement events. The relationship among important parameters such as volume, Fahrböschung

angle, shadow angle, talus slope angle, height of fall, travel distance, surface area on the mass

movements travel distance were analyzed. The analyses gives a better understanding regarding

physical characteristics and behaviour of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005, and provides a significant set of data for the hazard and risk evaluation. The

analysis showed that the Fahrböschung angle depends to some extent on the volume of the mass

movements. However, the other factors such as slope steepness, high relief of the area and

geological conditions affect also the travel distance of the investigated mass movements.

Moreover, the Fahrböschung angle values are very high for some mass movements with small

volumes compared to some larger ones. The analysis indicates that there is a linear trend between

the height of fall and travel distance.

No relationships were found between the Fahrböschung angle values and the height of fall, and the

travel distances. This indicates that Fahrböschung angle has no direct influence on the travel

distance and the height of fall. The analyses do not show any clear relationship between the

volume of the mass movements and the travel distance by means of shadow angle and talus slope

angle. The comparisons of Kashmir earthquake data with published data of other parts of the world

are mainly consistent with each other.

List of Contents

ix

CONTENTS 1. Introduction.................…………………………………………………………………….1

1.1. Backdrop……………………………………………………………………………….1

1.2. Literature review………………………………………………………………………..3

1.3. Research area…………………………………………………………………………...4

1.4. Aim of the study………………………………………………………………………..6

1.5. Thesis structure………………………………………………………………................7

2. Regional tectonics..……………………………………………………………………........9

2.1. Tectonics of Himalayas………………………………………………………………...9

2.2. Tectonic setting of the NW Himalayas of Pakistan…………………………..............11

2.3. Structural setting.……………………………………………………………………..14

2.3.1. Main Karakorum Thrust (MKT)……………………………………………….14

2.3.2. Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)…………………………………………...............14

2.3.3. Main Central Thrust (MCT)……………………………………………………14

2.3.4. Panjal Thrust (PT)……………………………………………………...............14

2.3.5. Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)….……………………………………………...15

2.4. Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ)………………………………………................16

2.5. Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS)……………………………………………...............17

2.6. Tectonic model for the origin of HKS……………………...........................................17

2.7. Core structures of the HKS…………………………………........................................18

2.7.1. Muzaffarabad Anticline….……………………………………………..............19

2.7.2. Muzaffarabad Fault (MF)….…………………………………………………...20

2.7.3. Jhelum Fault (JF)…….………………………………………………………....21

3. Geological setting..………………………………………………………………………...23

3.1. General description……………………………………………………………………23

3.2. Geology of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis………………………………………………...23

3.3. Geological setting of the study area…………………………………………………..25

3.3.1. Hazara Formation….…………………………………………………………...26

3.3.2. Tanol Formation….………………………………………………………….....28

3.3.3. Muzaffarabad Formation….…………………………………………................28

3.3.4. Manshera Granite………………………………………………………………29

3.3.5. Panjal Formation....………………………………………………….................29

3.3.6. Paleocene-Eocene sequence….………………………………………………...30

3.3.6.1. Hangu Formation…..………………………………………………….30

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x

3.3.6.2. Lockhart Formation…..…………………………………………….....30

3.3.6.3. Patala Formation…..………………………………………..................31

3.3.6.4. Margala Hill Formation…..…………………………………………...31

3.3.6.5. Chorgali Formation….………………………………………………..32

3.3.6.6. Kuldana Formation…..………………………………………………..32

3.3.7. Murree Formation...………………………………………………...................33

3.3.8. Kamlial Formation...……………………………………..................................34

3.3.9. Quaternary sediments...……………………………………………………….34

3.3.9.1. Alluvium deposit………………………………………….................34

3.3.9.2. Colluvium deposit……………………………………….. ……….....35

4. Methodology.………………………………………………………………………………36

4.1. Introduction …………………………………………………………………………...36

4.2. Available resources.……………………………………………………………………36

4.2.1. Literature collection.…………………………………………………………….36

4.2.2. Topographic map.…………………………………………………………….…36

4.2.3. Geological map.…………………………………………………………………38

4.2.4. Satellite imagery..………………………………………………….....................38

4.2.5. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs)…...................................................................38

4.3. Field survey.………………………………………………………………...................38

4.4. Database inventory..…………………………………………………………………...43

4.5. Data analysis.…………………………………………………………………………..44

5. Mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.…………………….......46

5.1. General overview.……………………………………………………………………...46

5.1.1. Damages caused by mass movements….………………………………………46

5.1.2. Earthquake induced mass movements.…………………………………………47

5.2. Terminology and classification of mass movements.…………………………….........48

5.2.1. Classification system of Varnes (1978)..………………………………………..49

5.2.2. Classification system of Cruden and Varnes (1996)..…………………………..49

5.2.3. Classification system used for this study….……………………………………50

5.3. Types of mass movements induced by the earthquake.………………………………..50

5.3.1. Shallow mass movements on very steep slopes.…..…………………………….51

5.3.2. Deep seated mass movements.…..………………………………………………52

5.4. Mass movement identification and classification..……………………………………..53

5.4.1. Landslides..….…………………………………………………………………...53

List of Contents

xi

5.4.1.1. Rotational landslides…………………………………………………54

5.4.1.2. Translational landslides……………………………………………...55

5.4.1.3. Occurrence of landslides in the study area…………………………..55

5.4.2. Rock falls.……………………………………………………………………56

5.4.2.1. Occurrence of rock falls in the study area...………………………...56

5.4.3. Debris falls.…………………………………………………………………..57

5.4.3.1. Occurrence of debris falls in the study area...……………………….57

5.4.4. Rock avalanches...…………………………………………………………....58

5.4.4.1. Occurrence of rock avalanche in the study area.....…………………58

5.4.5. Slump and rock fall.…………………………………………………………58

5.4.5.1. Occurrence of slump and rock fall in the study area..……………...59

5.5. Geographic distribution of mass movements in the study area.. ………………………59

5.5.1. Mass movements in Muzaffarabad and surrounding area. .…………………….60

5.5.2. Mass movements in Jhelum valley area...……………………………………….68

5.5.3. Mass movements in Neelum valley area...……………………………................71

5.6. Mass movement case studies..………………………………………………………….76

5.6.1. Previous studies..….……………………………………………………………..77

5.6.2. Hattian Bala rock avalanche..….………………………………………...............77

5.6.2.1. Introduction to the Hattian Bala rock avalanche case study..…..………77

5.6.2.2. Geological setting of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche..….. …………...78

5.6.2.3. Structural setting of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche........... .………….80

5.6.2.4. Description of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche……..………………….82

5.6.3. Langarpura rock fall..…………………………………………………………...88

5.6.3.1. Introduction to the Langarpura rock fall case study..….………………88

5.6.3.2. Geological setting of the Langarpura rock fall..…. …………………...89

5.6.3.3. Description of the Langarpura rock fall…...…………………………..90

5.6.4. Neelidandi rock fall.....…………………………………………………………93

5.6.4.1. Introduction to the Neelidandi rock fall case study.......………………93

5.6.4.2. Geological setting of the Neelidandi rock fall.…. .…………………...94

5.6.4.3. Description of the Neelidandi rock fall…..…………………………...95

5.6.5. Panjgran slump and rock fall...….……………………………………………101

5.6.5.1. Introduction to the Panjgran slump and rock fall case study.....…….101

5.6.5.2. Geological setting of the Panjgran slump and rock fall… .…………101

5.6.3.4. Description of the Panjgran slump and rock fall..…………………...102

List of Contents

xii

5.6.6. Conclusions based on the case histories..………..…………………………..106

6. Statistical analysis of the mass movement distribution triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005…………………………………………………....................................108

6.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..108

6.2. Methodology………………………………………………………………………….108

6.3. General mass movement distribution..…………………………………………………10

6.4. Mass movement concentration as function of distance to earthquake source.…….….112

6.4.1. Mass movement concentration in terms of distance from epicenter..……..…...114

6.4.2. Mass movement concentration in terms of distance from Muzaffarabad Fault..117

6.4.3. Mass movement concentration in terms of distance from hanging

wall and foot wall blocks of Muzaffarabad Fault ...…………………………...121

6.5. Mass movement concentration in terms of topographic parameters…………………..123

6.5.1. Mass movement concentration as function of slope steepness…………………124

6.5.2. Mass movement concentration as a function of slope aspect……………….….125

6.5.3. Mass movement concentration as function of elevation…………………….....127

6.6. Distribution of mass movements as function of geological units..…………………...129

6.7. Discussion and conclusions…..……………………………………………………….134

7. Empirical analysis of geometrical parameters of mass movements triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. ……………………………………………………………...137

7.1. Empirical models…..…………………………………………………………………137

7.2. Study background….….……………………………………………………………...137

7.3. Data source and methodology………….. ……………………………………………139

7.4. Types of considered mass movements .. ……………………………………………..144

7.5. Geometrical parameters considered for empirical analysis …………………………145

7.5.1. Fahrböschung angle…….………………………………………………………146

7.5.2. Shadow angle….………………………………………………………………..148

7.5.3. Talus slope angle…..……………………………………………………………148

7.6. Analysis of Kashmir earthquake 2005 mass movement data…………………………148

7.7. Results of analysis..……………………………………………………………………149

7.7.1. Relationship between the mass movement volume and Fahrböschung

angle for all types of mass movements. ..……....………………………………149

7.7.2. Relationship between the mass movement volume and Fahrböschung

angle for individual groups of mass movements. ..…………………………..151

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xiii

7.7.3. Relationship between mass movement volume versus shadow

angle and talus slope angle……………………………………………………….154

7.7.4. Relationship between the Fahrböschung angle and the height of fall…..………157

7.7.5. Relationship between the height of fall (H) and the travel distance (L)..…… ...158

7.7.6. Relationship between surface area and volume of mass movements….… ..…..160

7.8. Comparison between international published data and own results… ………………..161

8. Conclusions and recommendations………………………………………………........166

8.1 Conclusions ………………………………………………………………………….166

8.2 Recommendations……………………………………………………………………167

References……………………………………………………………………………….169

Appendices……………………………………………………………………………….183

List of Figures

xiv

LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 1.1 Map of the northern Pakistan and Kashmir region. The epicenter of Kashmir

earthquake 2005 was located in the Kashmir region (http: // www.drgeorgepc.com /

Earthquake2005Pakistan.html). The inset map shows the position of Pakistan within the

world map (http://www.worldatlas.com). …............................................................................ 2

Fig. 1.2 The investigated area is marked by the rectangular polygon, lies in Pakistani

Administrated Kashmir (PAK). The area was badly affected by the Kashmir earthquake

2005 in terms of life losses as well as earthquake induced mass movements (map of

Muzaffarabad district digitized and modified after the map from Planning and

Development department AJK, 2007). The inset map shows the location of Muzaffarabad

district in PAK. …….............................................................................................................. 5

Fig. 1.3 3D outlook view of the study area, affected by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. The

image is formed by SPOT-5 imagery over NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography

Mission) digital topography. …………………………………………….............................. 6

Fig. 1.4 Organization of PhD thesis structure………………………………………………. 8

Fig. 2.1 Map of Indian-Eurasian collision zone showing the Himalaya as a barrier between

the Tibetan Plateau and the plains of Indian plate (file:///E:

/Maps/JPEGMAP/File_Himalayas_ Map.htm). The inset map shows the location of Indian-

Eurasian collision zone in the world map. ……………....................................................... 10

Fig. 2.2 Tectonic map of the Himalayas showing the main tectonic zones (compiled after

Gansser, 1981; Windlay, 1983). …………………………………………………… 11

Fig. 2.3 The regional tectonic map shows the major tectonics features in northern Pakistan

(compiled after Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco, 1991;

Avouac et al., 2006 ; Baig, 2006 and Yeats et al., 2006). …………………………. 12

Fig. 2.4 Enlarged regional tectonic map of northern Pakistan. Sources used as in Fig. 2.3

MKT: Main Karakorum Thrust, MMT: Main Mantle Thrust, MCT: Main Central Thrust,

PT: Panjal Thrust, MBT: Main Boundary Thrust, HFT, Himalayan Frontal Thrust, JF:

Jhelum Fault. ……................................................................................................................ 16

Fig. 2.5 Structural map of the Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (compiled and modified after

Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco, 1989). HKS: Hazara

Kashmir Syntaxis; MBT: Main Boundary Thrust; PT: Panjal Thrust; HFT: Himalayan

Frontal Thrust. ……………………………………………………………………………. 19

List of Figures

xv

Fig. 2.6 The Muzaffarabad Fault runs between the Muzaffarabad Formation and Murree

Formation in Makri area, Muzaffarabad city. ………………………………………………. 21

Fig. 3.1 Map showing the geological units and faults of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis(compiled

after Wadia, 1931; Latif, 1970; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco,

1989; Hussain et al., 2004; Munir et al., 2006 and Kaneda et al., 2008). ……….................. 24

Fig. 3.2 Geological map of Jhelum valley, Neelum valley and Muzaffarabad city (compiled

and modified after Wadia, 1931; Latif, 1970; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence,

1987; Greco, 1989; Hussain et al., 2004, Munir et al., 2006 and Kaneda et al., 2008). … 25

Fig. 3.3 The slates of Hazara Formation are well exposed along Muzaffarabad–Mansehra

road in Muzaffarabad area. ……………………………………………………………… 27

Fig. 3.4 The highly crushed and sheared bedded Muzaffarabad Formation exposed at

Kamsar area, in the northeast of Muzaffarabad city. ……………………………………….. 29

Fig. 3.5 Margala Hill limestone exposed at Yadgar area, Muzaffarabad……..…………….. 32

Fig. 3.6 Fractured and jointed sandstone of the Miocene Murree Formation exposed in the

Jhelum valley area. ………………………………………………………………………….. 33

Fig. 3.7 The alluvial fan deposits near Chellah Bandi, Muzaffarabad………………………. 35

Fig. 3.8 Talus slope deposit at the base of cliff at Shahwi nala, Muzaffarabad…………….. 35

Fig. 4.1 Methodological steps used during the research work………………………………. 37

Fig. 4.2 SPOT-5 (A) and Quickbird (B) imagery show the mass movements triggered by

the Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Botha area Muzaffarbad. ………......................................... 39

Fig. 4.3 The mass movements interpreted from SPOT satellite imageries and field

investigation within the study area. …………………………………………………………. 40

Fig. 4.4 Examples of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 in

NW Himalayan, Pakistan. A. Subri rock fall blocked the Jhelum valley road during the

earthquake, B. Rockslide of Saran area caused to damage the houses, C. Dehrian Saidan

rock fall on hills of Muzaffarabad city, D. Debris fall near the Pattika town, E. Author

measuring absolute horizontal distance of mass movement in field, and F. Fractured

sandstone in the Miocene Murree Formation at Makri, Muzaffarabad. …………………….. 42

Fig. 4.5 Mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 data base interface

prepared in ArcGIS 9.3. ……................................................................................................... 44

Fig. 5.1 Map showing the distribution of mass movements triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005, in Muzaffarabad and surrounding areas. The investigated area is marked

by a rectangular polygon (map of Muzaffarabad district digitized and modified after the

map from Planning and Development department AJK, 2007). ……………………………. 48

List of Figures

xvi

Fig. 5.2 Multiple shallow failures on very steep slopes in the Hanging Wall Block (HWB)

Muzaffarabad Fault (MF), northeast of Muzaffarabad city. The Muzaffarabad Formation

lies in the HWB and the Murree Formation in the Foot Wall Block (FWB). ………………. 51

Fig. 5.3 SPOT-5 (2.5 m) image showing the mass movements induced by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005 denudated the vegetation on the steep slopes in the north and northwestern

part of Muzaffarabad city, and around the Muzaffarabad Hills. …………............................. 52

Fig. 5.4 Map showing the distribution and the types of mass movements investigated

during field surveys in 2009 and 2010 for this study…........................................................... 54

Fig. 5.5 Transitional landslide in Botha area, in the northeast of Muzaffarbad city triggered

by the earthquake. ………………………………………………………………………...... 55

Fig. 5.6 The rock fall occurred in weathered shales and fractured sandstones of Miocene

Murree Formation near Batmang area along the main road of Neelum valley. This rock fall

blocked the Neelum valley road many days after the earthquake. ………………………….. 56

Fig. 5.7 Debris fall located in Dunga Kas Nala in the Neelum valley area triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. This debris fall was occurred at low altitude area along the

stream. ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 58

Fig. 5.8 Map showing the location of the 3 main study areas: 1. Muzaffarabad city 2.

Jhelum valley, 3. Neelum valley. …………......................................................................... 59

Fig. 5.9 Quickbird (0.6 m) image showing shallow and deep mass movements on steep

slopes of Muzaffarabad hills, around Muzaffarabad city. Out line shows the boundary of

the mass movements. ………................................................................................................... 61

Fig. 5.10 Mass movement distribution map of the Muzaffarabad city and surrounding

area…………………………………………………………………………………………… 62

Fig. 5.11 Types of mass movements in Muzaffarabad city and the surrounding area………. 63

Fig. 5.12 Mass movement failures on the steeper slopes of carbonate rocks in the northern

and northwestern part of Muzaffarabad city ………………………………………………… 66

Fig. 5.13 Shallow slope failures on the steep slope of Muzaffarabad Hills in dolomitic

limestone. Most of the activated material was the former talus cover. …………………....... 67

Fig. 5.14 Mass movements in the southwest of Muzaffarabad city reactivated by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. ………………………………………………………………....... 68

Fig. 5.15 Mass movement distribution map of the Jhelum valley area……………………… 69

Fig. 5.16 Debris fall occurred in the red clay of the Miocene Murree Formation in Jhelum

valley area triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, additionally caused by undercutting

of the slope for road construction. ………………………………………………………....... 70

List of Figures

xvii

Fig. 5.17 Mass movement distribution map of the Neelum valley area……………………... 73

Fig. 5.18 A view of the Nauseri rock fall close to the MBT in the Neelum valley area…….. 74

Fig. 5.19 Map showing the locations of the case studies described in text. (map of

Muzaffarabad district digitized and modified after the map from Planning and

Development department AJK, 2007). ……………................................................................ 76

Fig. 5.20 SPOT-5 image of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche. Outline shows the boundary

of the mass movement and blockage of the Karli and Tung tributaries of the Jhelum

river………………………………………………………………………………………... 78

Fig. 5.21 Geological map of the Hattian Bala and surrounding area (compiled and modified

after GSP, 2008). ……………………………………………………………………………. 79

Fig. 5.22 Structural map showing the southeast plunging synclinal structural failure of

Hattian Bala rock avalanche. ………………………………………………………………... 81

Fig. 5.23 Geotechnical cross profiles (5.23a, 5.23b) showing the pre-earthquake and post-

earthquake situation. Note: the rock avalanche perfectly follows the pre-existing structure

of the Danna and Dandbeh synclines. The third profile (5.23c) is showing the maximum

deposit thickness of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche. ………………………........................ 82

Fig. 5.24 View of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche structurally controlled by southeast

plunging Danna syncline. Photo facing northwest…………………………………………... 83.

Fig. 5.25 Multiple extensional ground cracks oriented northeast-southwest on the crown of

the Hattian Bala rock avalanche. Photo facing northwest. ………………………………….. 84

Fig. 5.26 Map of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche from 2005. Note: situation of old rock

slide and it position is derived from Schneider (2008). …….................................................. 85

Fig. 5.27 Geotechnical map of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche and the locations of

geological longitudinal and geotechnical cross profiles. Frequent GPS measurements were

performed during field work to mapped the geotechnical details. ………………………….. 86

Fig. 5.28 Longitudinal geotechnical NW-SE profile showing pre-earthquake landscape and

the geotechnical situation after the rock avalanche. Note: the mass movement is parallel to

the southeast orientated synclinal plunge direction and the slip surface follows in many

parts the dip direction of the bedding. The mass movement abuts and accumulates against

the right steep wall of the former Karli valley. …………………………………................. 87

Fig. 5.29 The deposit of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche is mainly composed of angular

rock fragments. ……………………………………………………………………………… 88

List of Figures

xviii

Fig. 5.30 SPOT-5 image of the Langarpura rock fall in the Jhelum valley area. The red line

shows the location of Muzaffarabad Fault passing through this area. Outline shows the

boundary of the mass movement. …………………………………………………………… 89

Fig. 5.31 The escarpment failure of the Langarpura rock fall on the hanging wall block

(HWB) of the Muzaffarabad Fault. Note: The significant topographic front formed by the

hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault. The foot wall block (FWB) has been eroded

by river undercutting before the reactivation of Langarpura rock fall. Photo looking

northeast. …………………………………………………………………………………….. 90

Fig. 5.32 The geotechnical map of the Langarpura rock fall and the location of the

geological longitudinal profile shown in Fig. 5.33. ……………............................................. 92

Fig. 5.33 Geological longitudinal profile of the Langarpura rock fall. Location of the

profile is shown in Fig. 5.32. ………………………………………………………………... 93

Fig. 5.34 SPOT-5 image of the Neelidandi rock fall in north of Muzaffarabad city. The

rock fall blocked the Neelum river for 5 hours immediately after the earthquake. Outline

shows the boundary of the mass movement. ……………………………………………....... 94

Fig. 5.35 The very steep scarp of Neelidandi rock fall in the hanging wall block of

Muzaffarabad Fault (MF). The scarp is formed in the highly sheared cherty dolomite of

Muzaffarabad Formation. The Muzaffarabad Formation lies in the hanging wall block and

Murree Formation in the foot wall block. Photo looking southeast. …………....................... 96

Fig. 5.36 Northwest dipping and oblique tension cracks on the crown of the Neelidandi

rock fall.The cracks are formed due to earthquake ground shaking and stress release behind

the new steep scarp. These cracks can cause a collapse of material behind the scarp during

monsoon rains and earthquake shocks. Photo looking northeast………………………….... 97

Fig. 5.37 Geotechnical map of the Neelidandi rock fall and the location of the geological

longitudinal profile shown in Fig. 5.39. …………………………………………………….. 98

Fig. 5.38 The hanging wall block of Muzaffarabad Fault is deformed into active hanging

wall anticline (Baig et al. 2008). Note: total destruction of houses (Earthquake intensity XI)

is due to strong earthquake ground shaking along Muzaffarabad Fault. Photo looking

northeast…………………………………………………………………………................... 99

Fig. 5.39 Geological longitudinal profile of the Neelidandi rock fall. Location of the profile

is shown in Fig. 5.37. ………………………………………………………………………... 100

Fig. 5.40 SPOT-5 image showing the location and boundary of the Panjgran slump and

rock fall occurred in the northeast of Muzaffarabad, in the Neelum valley area. Outline

shows the boundary of the mass movement. ………………………………………………... 102

List of Figures

xix

Fig. 5.41 An overview of the Panjgran slump and rock fall which occurred close to the

epicentral region of the Kashmir earthquake 2005. Note: the position on an undercut slope

of Neelum river. ……............................................................................................................... 103

Fig. 5.42 Geotechnical map of the Panjgran slump and rock fall and the location of the

geological longitudinal profile shown in Fig. 5.43. …………………………………………. 104

Fig. 5.43 Geological longitudinal profile of the Panjgran slump and rock fall. Location of

the profile is shown in Fig. 5.42. ……………………………………………………………. 105

Fig. 6.1 Mass movement distribution map of the Kashmir earthquake 2005 in the vicinity

of Muzaffarabad, Jhelum and Neelum valleys. The investigated area is marked by a

rectangular polygon. ………………………………………………………………………… 109

Fig. 6.2 Map showing the geological setting of the study area affected by the mass

movements (compiled after Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987;

Greco, 1989; Hussain et al., 2004, Munir et al., 2006 and Kaneda et al., 2008). …………... 112

Figs. 6.3 (a) Mass movement distribution around the epicenter within the whole study area,

(b) Mass movement distribution around the Muzaffarabad Fault within the whole study

area (c) Mass movement distribution involving an area of 10 km around the epicenter, (d)

Mass movement distribution involving an area of 10 km around the rupture of the

Muzaffarabad Fault. …………………………………………………………………………. 113

Fig. 6.4 Number, area of mass movement and mass movement concentration defined in

terms of distance from the epicenter. ………………………………………………………... 115

Figs. 6.5 (a) Relationship between the mass movement concentration and the distance from

the epicenter for over all data, (b) Relationship between the mass movement concentration

and the distance 10 km away from the epicenter. ………........................................................ 116

Fig. 6.6 Number, area of mass movement and mass movement concentration defined in

terms of distance from the Muzaffarabad Fault. …………………………………………….. 118

Figs. 6.7 (a) Relationship between the mass movement concentration and the distance from

the Muzaffarabad Fault for over all data, (b) Relationship between the mass movement

concentration and the distance 10 km away from the Muzaffarabad Fault. ………………… 120

Fig. 6.8 Mass movement distribution along hanging and foot wall blocks of the reactivated

Muzaffarabad Fault around 7 km distance away from the Muzaffarabad fault rupture. 121

Fig. 6.9 Number, area of mass movement and concentration of mass movements on the

hanging wall block (left) and foot wall block (right) of the Muzaffarabad Fault. …………... 122

Fig. 6.10 (a) Slope angle distribution of the study area (b) slope aspect distribution of

thestudy area (c) DEM of the study area. …...................................................................... 123

List of Figures

xx

Fig. 6.11 Number, area of mass movement and the relationship between the mass

movement concentration and slope gradient categories. ……………………………………. 125

Fig. 6.12 Number, area of mass movement and the relationship of mass movement

concentration and slope aspect. …………......................................................................... 127

Fig. 6.13 Number, area of mass movement and the relationship between mass movement

concentration and elevation of the study area………………………………………………... 128

Fig. 6.14 The percentage of mass movement occurrence in terms of geological units……… 131

Fig. 6.15 The percentage of mass movement area in terms of geological units……………... 132

Fig. 6.16 Number, area of mass movement and the slope failure in different rock types

defined in terms of mass movement concentration. ……........................................................ 133

Fig. 7.1 Location of the mass movement events (represented by triangles), identified for

empirical analysis of geometrical parameters of rock falls, triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005, in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley and Neelum valley.

The investigated area is marked by the rectangular polygon. …………………………......... 138

Fig. 7.2 Examples of rock falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, considered for

empirical analysis. a) Battalian rock fall in the Jhelum valley, b) Makri rock fall in the

Muzaffarabad city, c) Nauseri rock fall in the Neelum valley, d) Devlian rock fall in

Neelum valley. ………............................................................................................................. 140

Fig. 7.3 Sketch of mass movement source point, falling mass and deposit. Definitions of

parameters used in the present analysis are explained in text. Sketch is modified from

Evans and Hungr (1993) and Copons et al., (2009). ………………………………………... 146

Fig. 7.4 Relationship between log tangent of the Fahrböschung and log mass movement

volume for all investigated rock and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005……………………………………………………………………………………… 150

Fig. 7.5 Fahrböschung angles and travel distances of individual groups of rock and debris

falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. ……………………………………………. 152

Fig. 7.6 Relationship between tangent of the Fahrböschung and volume for very large rock

falls, large rock falls, medium debris falls, small debris falls, and very small debris

falls………………………………………………………………………………………. 153

Fig. 7.7 Relationship between log tangent of the shadow angle and volume of 55 selected

events for all types of rock and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. . 156

Fig. 7.8 Relationship between log of the tangent of the talus slope angle and volume of 41

selected events for all types of rock and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005. ……………………………………………………………………………….. ……….. 156

List of Figures

xxi

Fig. 7.9 Relationship between tangent of the Fahrböschung and the height of fall for all

types of mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. ……................... 157

Fig. 7.10 Relationship between the log height of the fall (H) and the log travel distance (L)

for 20 all types of rock falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. ……………… 158

Fig. 7.11 Relationship between the log height of fall (H) and the log travel distance (L) for

83 all types of debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. …….................... 159

Fig. 7.12 Relationship between tangent of the Fahrböschung and the travel distance (L) for

all types of rock and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005……………………………………………………………………………………... 160.

Fig. 7.13 Relationship between log surface area and log mass movement volume for all

types of mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. …………………….. 161


volume. Comparison between the data of Scheidegger (1973), Erismann & Abele (2001),

Copons et al., (2009) and the dataset of Kashmir earthquake 2005. ………………………... 163


volume. Comparison between international data and own data set (Kashmir earthquake

2005 data)……………………………………………………………………………………. 165

List of Tables

xxii

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 Geology of the earthquake affected area……………………………………… 26

Table 5.1 Mass movement classification (Varnes, 1978)………………………………… 49

Table 5.2 Mass movement classification (Cruden and Varnes, 1996)…………………… 50

Table 5.3 Types of mass movements examined in the field (Classification after Varnes

1978). …………………………………………………………………………………… 53

Table 5.4 Type, length, width, area and volume of mass movements in Muzaffarabad city

and the surrounding area. ……............................................................................................. 64

Table 5.5 Type, length, width, area and volume of mass movement distribution in Jhelum

valley area. ………………………………………………………………………………… 71

Table 5.6 Type, length, width, area and volume of mass movement distribution in Neelum

valley area. ………………………………………………………………………………… 74

Table 5.7 Structural data of Danna syncline, Hattian Bala rock avalanche………………… 80

Table 5.8 Geometric characteristics of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005, in northern Pakistan. ………………………………………….. 86

Table 5.9 Geometric characteristics of the Langarpura rock fall triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. ………………........................................................................... 91

Table 5.10 Geometric characteristics of the Neelidandi rock falls triggered

by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. ………………………………………………………… 99

Table 5.11 Geometric characteristics of the Panjgran slump and rock fall triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. ……………………………………………………………….. 104

Table 6.1 The relationship between mass movement concentration and slope steepness

within the study area of Kashmir earthquake 2005. …………………………………….... 124

Table 6.2 The relationship between mass movement concentration and slope aspect

within the study area of Kashmir earthquake 2005. …………............................................ 126

Table 6.3 The relationship between mass movement concentration and elevation

within the study area of the Kashmir earthquake 2005. ………………………………….. 128

Table 6.4 Geological formations, lithological description, age, percentage of mass

movement, percentage of surface area for geological units and mass movement

concentration. …………………………………………………………………………….. 130

Table 7.1 Geometrical data of 103 mass movement events triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005, in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, the Jhelum valley and the Neelum

valley, in northern Pakistan. ………………………………………………………………. 141

List of Tables

xxiii

Table 7.2 Rock fall classification based on a volumetric nomenclature

(after Varnes, 1978 and Fell, 1994). ………………………………………………………. 144

Table 7.3 Classification of fall-types based on volume and number of mass movements… 145

Table 7.4 Results of the linear regression analysis of tangent of the Fahrböschung versus

the mass movement volume of individual rock fall groups. ……………………………… 154

xxiv

ABBREVIATIONS

AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir

ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer

AKMIDC Azad Kashmir Mineral and Industrial Development Corporation

ASL Above Sea Level

BGR Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe

DEM Digital Elevation Model

ERRA Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority

GSP Geological Survey of Pakistan

GPS Global Positioning System

HKS Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis

HFT Himalayan Frontal Thrust

IAK Indian Administrated Kashmir

ISZ Indus Tsangpo Suture Zone

IKSZ Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone

JICA Japan International Corporation Agency

JSCE Japan Society of Civil Engineers

JF Jhelum Fault

LoC Line of Control

NWFP North West Frontier Province

NESPAK National Engineering Services Pakistan

MBT Main Boundary Thrust

MKT Main Karakorum Thrust

MCT Main Central Thrust

MFT Main Frontal Thrust

MF Muzaffarabad Fault

PAK Pakistani Administrated Kashmir

PT Panjal Thrust

SRT Salt Range Thrust

SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

SPOT Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre

UTC Universal Coordinated Time

USGS United States Geological Survey

xxv

Peer reviewed publication

1. Basharat, M., Rohn, J., Baig, M. S., Ehret, D. (2012): The lithological and structural

control of Hattian Bala rock avalanche triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, Sub-

Himalayas, Northern Pakistan. Journal of Earth Science. Vol. 23, No. 2, p. 213-224,

DOI: 10.1007/s12583-012-0248-3

Abstracts

1. Basharat, M., Rohn, J., Baig, M. S., Ehret, D. (2010): The Pattern, Geological

Parameters and Distribution of Mass Movements triggered by Kashmir Earthquake 2005 in

Northern Pakistan Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU 2010-7756, 2010 EGU

General Assembly, 2010.

2. Basharat, M., Rohn, J., Moser, M. (2010): Statistical Analysis Of Mass Movements

Triggered By Kashmir Earthquake 2005 And Their Run-Out Distance. American

Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2010, abstract # NH31A-1331

Chapter 1: Introduction

1

Introduction

1.1. Backdrop

A big number of disastrous earthquakes occurred during the last ten years in mountain regions like

in El Salvador (2001), Pakistan (2005), China (2008) and Haiti (2010) triggering thousands of

mass movements throughout the areas. The area affected by the mass movements is related to the

earthquake magnitude, epicenter, focal depth, geological conditions and ground motion

characteristics (Keefer, 1984, 2002). Moreover, mass movements occur in a variety of geological

environments ranging from steep rock slopes to gentle slopes (Keefer, 1984). These mass

movements caused horrendous loss of life, great human sufferings and miseries, and wide spread

loss of property and infrastructure. Sometimes the damage caused by the mass movements

exceeded the damage directly related to the earthquakes (Schuster and Fleming, 1986). The most

disastrous mass movements during earthquakes have claimed as many as 100,000 lives in 1920

Haiyuan earthquake China (Li and Wang, 1992).

The Himalayan mountain chain is one of the most seismically active regions in the world and

causes frequent earthquakes and coseismic mass movements. The disastrous Kashmir earthquake

(magnitude Mw. 7.6) occurred on 8th October 2005 (3:50:40 Universal Coordinated Time (UTC)),

in the northwestern part of the Himalayan range in northern Pakistan (Fig. 1.1). Its epicenter was

located (34º 29′ 35″ N and 73º 37′ 44″ E) ~18 km northeast of the city of Muzaffarabad at a focal

depth of 26 km in Kashmir region (USGS, 2006). The devastating earthquake was the worst

natural disaster in the last 100 years in Kashmir (Bendick et al., 2007). The earthquake killed more

than 73,000 people, 69,000 people were injured and 2.8 million people were left homeless (official

sources). This earthquake triggered a number of mass movements that caused about 30 % of all

fatalities directly or indirectly and huge economic losses (Petley et al., 2006). The economic losses

by this earthquake including reconstruction and rehabilitation were estimated to be 5.2 billion US

$ (Asian Development Bank and World Bank, 2005).

Due to a lack of awareness in Pakistan, the impact of mass movements was not ascribed a big

importance to the population as well as to the government. The knowledge regarding mass

movement events occurring in past was limited or even unknown in the area. Before the

earthquake of 8th October 2005, any kind of systematic scientific investigation on landslides was

not carried out in this region. As a result, the people and government paid high price in terms of

human life, loss of land and in the relocation and reconstruction of entire villages. The impact of

mass movements on human society is increasing. The reason for this increase was primarily

human related and includes encroachment of human population at steep slopes and deforestation.


2

Fig. 1.1 Map of the Pakistan and Kashmir region. The epicenter of Kashmir earthquake 2005 was

located in the Kashmir region, northern part of Pakistan (http: // www.drgeorgepc.com /

Earthquake 2005 Pakistan.html). The inset map shows the position of Pakistan within the world

map (http: // www.worldatlas.com).

After the devastating effect of mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005,

significant efforts has been made by the scientific community, local and international

organizations as well as by the institutes and the universities to identify and characterize the mass

movements and to improve the knowledge and understanding of the process. As a part of this

commitment, it is mandatory to understand the mechanism, distribution, characteristics and

behaviour of mass movements in order to assess and mitigate the geological risk pose to the

potential affected area.


3

1.2. Literature review

After the Kashmir earthquake 2005, the distribution and characteristics of mass movements have

been investigated by several researchers throughout the affected area (Fujiwara et al., 2006; Harp

and Crone, 2006; Petley et al., 2006; Dunning et al., 2007; Sato et al., 2007; Kamp et al., 2008;

Owen et al., 2008; Schneider, 2008; Champati Ray et al., 2009 Saba et al., 2010 and Peduzzi,

2010). Sato et al. (2007) initially studied the distribution of mass movements triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. Using remote sensing data, they identified 2,424 mass movements in an

affected area of more than 7,500 km2. They described that the mass movements mostly occurred

close to the active fault along the hanging wall block. However, they did not explain the

relationship between mass movements and geological parameters. Petley et al. (2006) reported the

number of fatalities associated with mass movements in this earthquake. They estimated that more

than 30% of the people died directly or indirectly as a result of mass movements. They also

examined the wide spread occurrence of cracked slopes which threaten the local inhabitants

around Muzaffarabad. Owen et al. (2008) studied the mass movements in an area of 750 km2 near

Muzaffarabad and Balakot affected by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. They identified 1,293 mass

movements at 174 locations and developed a first mass movement inventory in the field

identifying the types of slope failure. However, they did not study the detailed geological and

structural characterization. Kamp et al. (2008) produced a susceptibility map for the region and

pointed out that the mass movements are concentrated in specific zones associated with event

controlling parameters like deforestation and road construction. These factors contributed

significantly to the frequency of mass movements during and after the earthquake. Saba et al.

(2010) carried out a preliminary study of the mass movements using pre- and post-earthquake

Quickbird, IKONOS, Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT-5), and WorldView01

imageries. They identified 158 mass movements along Balakot-Bagh fault line within an area of 36

km2. They reported that the mass movement activity decreased within two years after the

earthquake.

However, limited work has been done so far, where mass movement distribution was statistically

analyzed. Moreover, physical characteristics of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005 were not discussed earlier. Keeping in view the significance of the mass

movement problems in the area, the present study was undertaken regarding the distribution,

characteristics and behaviour of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.


4

1.3. Research area

The inherently unstable nature of mountain areas in the northern part of Pakistan is well

recognized. Seismically active zones, steep slopes, disadvantageous geological conditions and

intense monsoon rains make this part of the Himalayas to one of the most hazard-prone areas in

the world.

The investigated area lies in Pakistani Administrated Kashmir (PAK) in the northwestern part of

the Himalayas in Kashmir region. The study was conducted within an area of approximately 1,299

km2, principally located in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley, and Neelum valley

(Fig. 1.2). Politically, the area is disputed between India and Pakistan since their independence in

1947. The eastern boundary of PAK is still demarcated by the Line of Control (LoC), as

established by the two states (Pakistan and India). Muzaffarabad is the capital of PAK also named

as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and lies only 135 km away from the capital of Pakistan,

Islamabad. It is located on the bank of the Jhelum and Neelum rivers. Muzaffarbad city is the main

gateway to enter the Jhelum and Neelum valleys up to a distance of only some few km from the

LoC.

Topography of the area is mainly mountainous with terraces and deep incised valleys (Fig. 1.3).

The ridges and valleys generally trend southeast-northwest parallel to the regional geological

structures. The Neelum river flows across this trend from north to south. However, the Jhelum

river flows parallel to southeast northwest regional strike of the Jhelum valley. In addition, the

Jhelum river joins the Neelum river near Muzaffarabad city and turns south. Generally, the relief

of the area is high in the north-northeastern and southeastern parts. To the north the topography is

characterized by steep mountains with elevations up to about 4,500 m asl. Whereas, to the south

the area is bounded by low hills of Murree and Abbotabad ranges at elevations of about 550 m asl

at the river bed.

The study area lies in the subtropical highland climate region within the reaching of strong

monsoon. In Muzaffarabad (about 700 m asl), the minimum and maximum temperature ranges

from -2.6 to 45.2 Cº (Planning and Development department AJK, 2010). However, the variation

in temperature is high towards the north of Muzaffarabad city in the Neelum valley area. During

the summer local rain showers are common and in winter the precipitation is mostly in the form of

snow above about 1,500 m asl. The average annual precipitation during the whole year is 1,300

mm (Planning and Development department AJK, 2010). As a result, severe flooding along the

rivers and streams are very common during the monsoon season.


5

Fig. 1.2 The investigated area is marked by the rectangular polygon, lies in Pakistani

Administrated Kashmir (PAK). The area was badly affected by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 in

terms of life losses as well as earthquake induced mass movements (map of Muzaffarabad district

digitized and modified after the map from Planning and Development department AJK, 2007). The

inset map shows the location of Muzaffarabad district in PAK.

The choice of the study area was determined by various considerations:

1. The disastrous Kashmir earthquake 2005 caused severe damage in PAK and North West

Frontier Province (NWFP) in Pakistan. In PAK, three main districts namely Muzaffarabad,

Bagh and Poonch were badly affected during the earthquake. Muzaffarabad was heavily


6

struck in terms of casualities, property losses, and destruction of the infrastructure. More

than 70 % of the total mass movements in PAK triggered by the earthquake occurred in the

Muzaffarabad district.

2. The study area lies along the rupture zone of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault, Main

Boundary Thrust (MBT) and close to the epicenter region. It was the area most affected by

mass movements during the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

3. The study area was chosen where mass movements are a significant problem and represent

a threat to the inhabitants of the area in terms of life losses and property.

4. In many parts of the study area, the mass movement problems have been increased by

human activities such as urban development, construction of roads on steep slopes and

deforestation.

Fig. 1.3 3D outlook view of the study area, affected by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. The image is

formed by SPOT-5 imagery over NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) digital

topography.

1.4. Aim of the study

The principal aim of this research was to improve the knowledge and understanding of the

distribution, characteristics and behaviour of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005. The secondary aim was to develop a data base inventory and methodology that


7

can be used generally in developing countries. The basic technical information provided by this

study can be used by the national scientific community to produce hazard and risk assessment

maps for future planning.

The more specifically the research objectives were:

1. Identification and classification of mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005.

2. To produce mass movement inventory maps of Muzaffarabad city and the areas around

Jhelum valley and Neelum valley after the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

3. Investigation of large scale mass movements as case studies.

4. To understand distribution pattern of mass movement triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005.

5. To understand relationship between various geometrical parameters of mass movements

triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

1.5. Thesis structure

The thesis structure is organized into three parts as presented in Fig. 1.4. The first part of this

thesis contains the chapters of regional tectonics, geological setting, and methodology. In this part,

an overview of tectonics and geological setting of the study area are described with focus on active

tectonic features (Chapter 2), and lithological characteristics of different rock units (Chapter 3)

which affect the triggering of mass movements during the earthquake. In addition, the general

methodology (Chapter 4) used for this study are discussed.

The second part of this thesis is focusing on the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005 (Chapter 5). In this chapter, an attempt has been made to describe the types of

mass movements induced by the earthquake. In addition, the terminologies adopted for mass

movement classification and used for this work are explained. Moreover, mass movement

inventory maps were prepared using the information obtained during field investigations and

SPOT images. Furthermore, the investigations of four case studies (large scale mass movements)

have been discussed in terms of geological, structural, geotechnical and geometrical

characteristics.

The third part of the thesis focuses on the statistical analysis of the mass movement distribution

(Chapter 6) and the empirical analysis of geometrical parameters of the mass movements

(Chapter 7). The distribution of mass movements was analyzed statistically using regression

analysis, which allowed us to understand how the occurrence of mass movements correlates with

the distance from the earthquake source, geological conditions, and topographical parameters.


8

Likewise, empirical approaches were used to analyze the geometrical parameters of the mass

movements in order to determine the empirical relationship among various parameters on mass

movements travel distance.

Finally, the results are synthesized and interpreted in conclusions. The recommendations for future

work are made.

Fig. 1.4 Organization of PhD thesis structure.

Introduction

Regional Tectonics Geological Setting

Methodology

Mass movements triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005

Statistical analysis

Empirical analysis

Conclusion

Part 1

Part 2 Part 3

Chapter 2: Regional tectonics

9

Regional tectonics

2.1. Tectonics of Himalayas

The world highest mountain chain, about 2,500 km long, 160-400 km wide, the Himalayas is

sandwiched between Eurasian plate and Indian plate. The Himalayan rugged mountain ranges,

extending from Pakistan in the northwest to India, Nepal and Bhutan in the northeast. It forms a

barrier between the Tibetan Plateau to the north and the plains of the Indian plate to the south (Fig.

2.1).

The Himalayan mountain belt was the result of continent-continent collision between Indian and

Eurasian plates. The Indian plate was separated from the Gondwana about 130 million years (Ma)

ago. In middle Cretaceous (80 Ma), Indian plate moved towards northwest, away from

Madagascar (Powell, 1979). As a result, the Newtethys between the Indian plate in the south and

Asian plate in the north started shrinking. This shrinking and continental drift was facilitated by

the consumption of Newtethys. During the closure of Newtethys, the Kohistan Island Arc

developed during late Jurassic to Cretaceous (Treloar and Izatt, 1993). The collisional boundary

between Eurasian plate and Kohistan Island Arc is referred to as the Main Karakorum Thrust

(MKT) (Tahirkheli, 1979). The collisional event began at 50-55 Ma (Powell, 1979; Patriate and

Achache, 1984) which is also supported by the fact that the Indian plate was rapidly drifting at a

rate of 130-150 millimeter per year northwards and collided with the Eurasian plate (Powell,

1979). The Indian plate from 50 Ma to present seemed to have moved northwards at much slower

rates of 40-60 millimeter per year (Powell, 1979). The abrupt slow moving rate is a result of the

Indian and Eurasian collision during the Early Tertiary (LeFort, 1975; Molnar and Tapponier,

1975).

The Kohistan Island Arc was docked onto the Eurasian plate in the north. The collision between

the Indian plate and the Kohistan Island Arc occurred during Eocene and is responsible for the

uplift of Himalayas (Molnar and Tapponier, 1975). The boundary between Indian plate and

Kohistan Island Arc is marked by the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) (Tahirkheli, 1979). The south

migration of Himalayan deformation is represented by the MBT. The southern boundary of outer

Himalayas is believed to be tectonic boundary at certain places and called the Salt Range Thrust

(SRT) in Pakistan.

In the Indian Himalayas, northern collision zone has been identified as Indus Tsangpo Suture Zone

(ISZ), Main Central Thrust (MCT), MBT and Himalayan Frontal Thrust or Main Frontal Thrust

(HFT or MFT; Fig. 2.2). The ISZ extends west and bifurcates in Pakistan into two major

structures, the MMT and the MKT (Tahirkheli, 1979).


10

Fig. 2.1 Map of Indian-Eurasian collision zone showing the Himalaya as a barrier between the

Tibetan Plateau and the plains of Indian plate (file:///E:/Maps/JPEGMAP/File_Himalayas _ Map.

htm). The inset map shows the location of Indian-Eurasian collision zone in the world map.

The northern suture MKT separates the intrusive and high grade metamorphic rocks of the

Eurasian plate from the Kohistan Island Arc. Whereas, the southern suture MMT separate the

Kohistan Island Arc from the hinterland of the Indian plate. The tectonic collision zone in northern

Pakistan has been subdivided by the MKT, MMT, MBT, SRT and HFT or Muzaffarabad Fault

(Tahirkhali, 1982; Farah et al., 1984; Yeats and Lawrence, 1984; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Fig.

2.3).


11

Fig. 2.2 Tectonic map of the Himalayas showing the main tectonic zones (compiled after Gansser,

1981; Windlay, 1983).

2.2. Tectonic setting of the NW Himalayas of Pakistan

In present tectonic setting, Pakistan lies on the northwestern corner of the Indian plate (Fig. 2.1). It

represents the part of the Tertiary convergence between Indian and Eurasian plates. In northern

Pakistan, Himalayas have four major subdivisions (Farah et al., 1984; Yeats and Lawrence, 1984).

These are from north to south; 1. Karakoram Ranges and Hindukush Ranges, 2. The Kohistan

Island Arc lies between the MKT and MMT (Tahirkheli, 1982; Farah et al., 1984), 3. The low

ranges of Swat, Hazara and Kashmir, located between the MMT and MBT, 4. Salt Range and

Potwar Plateau to the south of MBT represented the foreland fold and thrust belt in Sub Himalaya

(Figs. 2.2 and 2.3).

The Himalayan collision zone in east of Kashmir is tectonically subdivided by Gansser (1964 and

1981) from north to south into the Higher Himalayas, Lesser Himalayas and Sub Himalayas based

on structural, stratigraphic and morphological criteria.


12

Fig. 2.3 The regional tectonic map shows the major tectonics features in northern Pakistan

(compiled after Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco, 1991; Baig,

2006 and Yeats et al., 2006).


13

The MCT demarcates the Higher Himalayas from the Lesser Himalayas (Fig. 2.3). The MCT is

well developed in eastern and central Himalayas but its extension beyond Kaghan is still

controversial in northern Pakistan due to lack of evidence. The rock units of Higher Himalayas

represent the part of Indian basement and cover rocks (Greco, 1989). The Lesser Himalayan

sequence, locally poorly exposed in PAK, and Indian Administrated Kashmir (IAK) (DiPietro and

Pogue, 2004). The Lesser Himalayas are demarcated from the Sub Himalayas by the MBT (Fig.

2.3). The Lesser Himalayas comprises largely metasedimentary and sedimentary rock of

Precambrian to Tertiary age (Greco, 1989). The Sub Himalayas consists of the northern part of the

Indian shield, which has been covered by Tertiary molasse dominated by the Murree Formation

(Greco, 1989). The Sub Himalayas of northern Pakistan are defined by the Potwar-Kohat Plateau

comprising thick succession of Miocene-recent molasse sediments. South of the MBT in Pakistan,

the Sub Himalayas reaches its greatest breadth in the entire Himalayas. Clastic deposit of the

Miocene Murree Formation and overlying Siwalik Group of Miocene-Pleistocene age (Burbank

and Raynolds, 1984) lies in the Potwar Plateau. At the southern edge rises the Salt Range, in which

Eocambrian evaporates of the Salt Range Formation are overlain by Cambrian, Permain and

Mesozoic strata with relation to Gondwana (Gee, 1989). Most of the strata within Hazara Kashmir

Syntaxis (HKS) are Murree Formation, which contains red bed of sandstone, mudstone, shale and

claystone of early Miocene age that have developed slaty cleavage (Bossart et al., 1988).

Another classification by Coward et al., (1988) divided the Himalayas into internal (hinterland)

and external (foreland) zones on regional basis (Fig. 2.3). The internal zone to the south is

bounded by MMT, and consists of crystalline rocks of Naran, Upper Kashmir, Hazara, Besham

and Swat areas, whereas, the external zone, which in essence is a foreland thrust-fold belt,

comprises sedimentary rocks of low hill ranges. The tectonic boundary between internal and

external zone is marked by Nathiagali Thrust or Hazara Thrust, which is known as Panjal Thrust

(PT) (Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Fig. 2.3). The Precambrian basement and Paleozoic-Mesozoic

cover of the hinterland of the Indian plate lies north of the PT in Hazara, Kaghan and AJK. The

Paleozoic to Cenozoic folded and imbricated sedimentary sequence between the Nathiagali Thrust

and the SRT constitutes the foreland of the Himalayan collision zone.

The other important tectonic features of northwest Himalayas are HFT or Muzaffarabad Fault and

Jhelum Fault (Fig. 2.3). The Muzaffarabad Fault or HFT extends southeast through Jhelum valley,

Bagh and Poonch city in IAK areas (Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Baig, 2006). The Jhelum Fault is

north-south trending left lateral wrench fault, which separates the Potwar Basin from the Kashmir

Basin.


14

2.3. Structural setting

The main structural features associated with tectonics of the Himalayas are described here briefly

as presented in Figs. 2.3 and 2.4.

2.3.1. Main Karakorum Thrust (MKT)

The MKT is also known as northern suture zone (Fig. 2.4; Tahirkheli, 1979). It marks tectonic

boundary between Kohistan Island Arc and Eurasian plate. The southern boundary of Karakorum

block, separates the Paleozoic metasediments of Karakorum block from the Cretaceous-Tertiary

Kohistan Ladakh Arc. The MKT was closed in late Cretaceous (Tahirkheli, 1982; Coward et al.,

1986).

2.3.2. Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)

The collisional boundary between the Kohistan Island Arc and the Indian plate is referred as MMT

(Fig. 2.4). The collision of Indian plate and Kohistan Island Arc occurred during Eocene time. It

extends west from Ladakh to northern Pakistan and eastern Afghanistan (Tahirkheli, 1979;

Gansser, 1981; Chaudhry et al., 1983). The MMT emplaces the lower crust crystalline rocks of the

Kohistan Island Arc on the Indian plate rocks (LeFort, 1975).

2.3.3. Main Central Thrust (MCT)

The MCT is the tectonic discontinuity along a major shear zone that separates the rocks of Higher

Himalayas and Lesser Himalayas (Heim and Gansser, 1939; Gansser, 1964; Fig. 2.4). The MCT in

AJK and Kaghan was proposed by Ghazanfar and Chaudhry (1986), Baig and Lawrence (1987)

and Chaudhry and Ghazanfar (1990). They reported a well developed 500 m to 5 km thick ductile

shear zone with inverse metamorphism and a sharp break in structural style and metamorphic

grade in Neelum valley, AJK and Kaghan valley, Pakistan. Part of MCT in Neelum valley AJK

proposed by Chaudhry and Ghazanfar (1990) was verified by Fontan and Schouppe (1995).

2.3.4. Panjal Thrust (PT)

The PT (Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975) defined one of the fundamental tectonic discontinuity

scars of the Lesser Himalayan domain in Kashmir (Fig. 2.4). The Pir Panjal range in Kashmir is

the type section of the thrust, from where it extends northeastwards along the eastern flank of the

Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS). The PT and MBT curves around the apex of the HKS then bend

southward. According to Wadia (1931), Calkins et al., (1975), Bossart et al., (1984) and Greco

(1989), these two faults join about 5 km north of Balakot (Figs. 2.3 and 2.4). The PT is parallel to


15

the MBT on the eastern limb of the HKS but in the Hazara area below the PT, the MBT is not well

defined tectonic feature. It is an imbricated zone called as the MBT Zone (Baig and Lawrence,

1987).

Along the PT the low grade Precambrian Tanol Formation is thrusted onto unmetamorphosed

rocks of Cambrian to Jurassic age in the Hazara area. The Panjal Formation is exposed along the

Pir-Panjal range along the eastern flanks of HKS, whereas, it is not present below it in Hazara area

(Baig and Lawrence, 1987). According to Khan (1994), PT separates the rocks of Upper

Carbonferous to Triassic from Tanol Formation in Jhelum, Neelum and Kaghan valleys in the

northwest Himalayas.

2.3.5. Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)

The MBT is the main frontal thrust of the Himalayan range, which runs about 1500 km from

Assam in the east to Kashmir in the west. Wadia (1931) recognized a series of nearly parallel

faults in his division of outer Himalayas (also known as Sub Himalayas). All these were referred to

as the MBT. Presently, the outer most of the fault named Murree Thrust by Seeber and Armbruster

(1979) is called the MBT (Figs. 2.3 and 2.4). This distinct tectonic feature, in Pakistan has thrusted

the Eocene and older rocks over the Miocene Murree Formation. In the HKS and the fault loops

around HKS, the MBT is displaced by the left lateral active Jhelum Fault (Baig and Lawrence,

1987). This structure separates the rocks of the Lesser Himalaya (hanging wall) from the

sandstones, siltstones, clays and shales of the Sub Himalayas (footwall). The SW-directed

movement associated with this structure in Kashmir is characterized by brittle deformation

(cataclastites).


16

Fig. 2.4 Enlarged regional tectonic map of northern Pakistan. Sources used as in Fig. 2.3. MKT:

Main Karakorum Thrust, MMT: Main Mantle Thrust, MCT: Main Central Thrust, PT: Panjal

Thrust, MBT: Main Boundary Thrust, HFT, Himalayan Frontal Thrust, JF: Jhelum Fault.

2.4. Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ)

A wedge-shaped northwest trending structure between MMT and HKS is known as IKSZ (Figs.

2.3 and 2.4; Armbruster et al., 1978; Seeber and Armbruster, 1979). Ni et al. (1991) confirmed the

presence of almost 100 km long feature between the HKS and MMT. This 50 km wide zone has

nearly horizontal upper surface and a northeast dipping lower surface of seismicity along IKSZ

(MonaLisa et al., 2008). The two seismic zones within the IKSZ have identified on the basis of

relocated hypocenters by Ni et al., (1991), a shallow zone extending from the surface to a depth of

8 km and a more pronounced mid crustal zone lying at depth of about 12 to 25 km. The upper


17

boundary represents a decollement surface that decouples the sediment and metasediments from

the basement at a depth of about 12 km.

The IKSZ is seismically the most active structure capable of generating large earthquakes in the

region. It is predominantly a thrust fault with a northwest strike and northeast dipping plane

parallel to the general trend of the MBT to the northeast of Muzaffarabad (MonaLisa et al., 2008).

However, IKSZ with MBT is not comparable because both have different tectonic history, as

based on surface geology (Gahalaut, 2006). The most destructive earthquake prior to Kashmir

earthquake 2005 associated with IKSZ, was the 28 December, 1974 Pattan earthquake with

magnitude 6.0. The IKSZ represent the reactivation of decollement surface and have short term

stress field which may cause the broad zone of scattered seismicity and is responsible for the

Kashmir earthquake 2005 (MonaLisa et al., 2008).

2.5. Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS)

The Tertiary strata of the foreland basin and MBT take a hair-pin bend curvature around Hazara

and AJK in Pakistan from northwest to southeast and to south. This curvilinear pattern of

structural trend on regional scale was described as the NW Himalaya Syntaxis (Wadia, 1931)

which was later called as the HKS by various scientists (Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence,

1987; Bossart et al., 1988; Greco, 1989; Kazmi and Jan, 1997, Rustam et al., 2003; Figs. 2.3 and

2.4).

The HKS is a NNW trending regional scale antiform structure that folds the Lesser- and Sub

Himalayas and to some extent also the Higher Himalayas. Except for the HFT, all the major thrust

including MBT, PT and MCT are refolded by this structure. Unlike the classical anticlines, where

the older rocks lie in the core and the limb comprises successively younger rocks, the HKS

exposes the youngest rocks in the core, and successively older rocks in the limbs. This owes to

crustal stacking due to thrusting prior to the development of the Hazara Kashmir Syntaxial

structure. Thus the limbs of the HKS comprise folded PT and MBT. The MBT, PT, Jhelum Fault

and Muzaffarabad Fault are the important active tectonic features in the HKS (Armbruster et al.,

1978; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Baig, 2006; Yeats et al., 2006; Fig. 2.5).

2.6. Tectonic Models for the origin of HKS

• Wadia (1931) reported a SSE-ward and SW-ward transport direction on the western

and eastern limb of HKS respectively. He suggested an original horst to be involved in

the formation of HKS.


18

• Calkins et al. (1975) agreed the Wadia (1931) model, but suggested that the west-

vergent shape of the anticlinal syntaxis results from a second, W-directed movement

direction.

• Bossart et al. (1984, 1988) described that the HKS formed in response to anticlockwise

rotation of the Indian plate during the late Tertiary. According to his model continued

rotation and contraction associated with the Indian plate resulted in development of the

kink structures into the crustal scale antiformal fold structures.

• Bossart et al. (1990) based on the paleomagnetic studies review Bossart et al., (1988)

model. Their finding suggested that where as the western limb did rotate anticlockwise

in Tertiary, however, the eastern limb rotated clockwise, opposite to the rotation of the

western limb.

• Treloar et al. (1992) proposed that HKS developed as a consequence of interference

between two active and converging thrust sheets. The Kashmir Himalayas in the east

and Hazara Potwar Himalayas in the west.

2.7. Core structures of the HKS

The HKS was formed due to the interaction of three independently moving tectonic elements;

the Himalayas, the Indo-Pakistan Shield and the Salt Range, each of which is moving

independently (Fig. 2.3). This may account for the unusual structure of the core of the syntaxis,

where major refolding patterns exist and over thrusting occurs on both sides of the syntaxis.

The HKS consists of a complex series of overlapping nappes made up of various Precambrian,

Palaeozoic and Mesozoic formations which have been over thrust on a group of predominantly

classic sediment, the Murree Formation of Tertiary age (Bossart et al., 1988). In the western

limb of HKS, the PT and MBT subdivided the region into three tectonic elements. The tectonic

element below the MBT in the core of the HKS is mainly composed of Tertiary sediments of

interbedded sandstone with shale and claystone of Murree Formation. Thus the Sub Himalayas

structurally the lowest element is characterized by intensive folding associated with the

formation of Muzaffarabad anticline. The core of anticline has carbonates of Cambrian,

Paleocene and Eocene. The tectonic element between MBT and PT mainly consists of Jurassic

to Eocene limestone, shales and Hazara slates of Precambrian age.


19

Fig. 2.5 Structural map of the Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (compiled and modified after Wadia,

1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco, 1991). HKS: Hazara Kashmir

Syntaxis; MBT: Main Boundary Thrust; PT: Panjal Thrust; HFT: Himalayan Frontal Thrust.

In the north of PT upper most tectonic units are formed by Tanol Formation of Precambrian age

and Cambrian Mansehra Granite (LeFort, 1981). Three structures in the core of the HKS are most

significant (Fig. 2.5).

i) Muzaffarabad Anticline

ii) Muzaffarabad Fault

iii) Jhelum Fault

2.7.1. Muzaffarabad Anticline

The north of Jhelum river near Muzaffarabad can be observed as an anticlinal structure, with a

well developed NE and SW limbs. The core of this structure is exposed near Muzaffarbad in the

north and hence the structure is appropriately named as the Muzaffarbad anticline (Fig. 2.5;


20

Calkins et al., 1975; Hussain et al., 2004). This anticlinal structure is highly tectonized at its SW

limb due to its involvement in the active faults including PT, MBT, Jhelum Fault and

Muzaffarabad Fault marking the western limb of the HKS (Baig and Lawrence, 1987).

The anticline exposes the deepest stratigraphic levels in a 30 km long stretch between

Muzaffarabad and Balakot, where core is occupied by the Cambrian carbonates of Muzaffarabad

Formation. There is another set of carbonate rocks of Paleocene-Eocene age marked by

unconformable lower contact with the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation and transitional upper

contact with the Murree Formation. The Murree Formation occupies the entire eastern limb of

Muzaffarabad anticline as well as the northern apex of the HKS.

The western limb of Muzaffarabad anticline is highly diminishing because of involvement by the

faults marking the western limb of the HKS. This results in at places, complete absence of the

Paleocene-Eocene carbonate and shale units between the Muzaffarabad Formation and Murree

Formation. In another place, at this western limb of the syntaxis both the Paleocene-Eocene

carbonates as well as the Murree Formation are attenuated and the Muzaffarabad Formation is in

direct faulted contact with the Precambrian Hazara slates.

2.7.2. Muzaffarabad Fault (MF)

The Muzaffarabad Fault or HFT lie along the western limb of the HKS (Figs. 2.3, 2.4 and 2.5;

Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Nakata et al., 1991). The active Muzaffrabad Fault or HFT (Baig and

Lawrence, 1987) marks the western contact of the Muzaffarabad Formation and the Murree

Formation at the western limb of the Muzaffarabad anticline (Fig. 2.6). It is a thrust/reverse fault

exposed immediately east of Muzaffarabad. The fault is refolded along the Neelum river, before it

stretches NW towards the Balakot, where it crosses the PT and MBT at the apex of the HKS (Fig.

2.5; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Baig, 2006). Nakata et al. (1991) showed an active fault along the

Jhelum river between Muzaffarabad and Grahi Dopatta, which he termed as Tanda Fault. The

Kashmir earthquake 2005 ruptured the Muzaffarabad Fault 120 km between Balakot in the north

to Bagh in the south (Avouac et al., 2006; Baig, 2006; Kanedo et al., 2008).

The Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) mapped a set of quadrangles that included northwest–

southeast-striking fault close to the IKSZ (Calkins et al., 2004; Hussain et al., 2004; Iqbal et al.,

2004; Hussain and Yeats, 2006) earlier mapped as HFT (Baig and Lawrence, 1987) that was not at

that time recognized as active but were later shown to be reactivated during the Kashmir

earthquake 2005 by Nakata and Kumahara (2006), Avouac et al. (2006), Baig (2006) and Kaneda

et al., (2008). Evidence for faulting includes juxtaposition of Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation

against Murree Formation and Murree Formation against Kamlial Formation.


21

Fig. 2.6 The Muzaffarabad Fault runs between the Muzaffarabad Formation and Murree Formation

in Makri area, Muzaffarabad city.

Immediately after the earthquake, the surface ruptures parallel to the reactivated Muzaffarabad

Fault from Balakot to Bagh areas were documented by Baig (2006) and Kaneda et al., (2008). The

field investigation has suggested that the typical geomorphology of the fault zone is a scarp with

compressional features at the base and tension cracks along the crest. Satellite imagery analysis

(JSCE, 2006) show that the maximum vertical uplift up to 5.5 m is along Muzaffarabad Fault. In

contrast, the field investigation indicates that the maximum uplift along fault is 7.5 m during

Kashmir earthquake 2005 (Baig, 2006). However, the maximum uplift along Muzaffarabad is 120

m which indicates multiple earthquakes uplift along fault in Late Holocene (Baig et al., 2008). The

mostly mass movements and ruptures are concentrated close to the fault on its hanging wall block.

2.7.3. Jhelum Fault (JF)

Jhelum Fault truncates the structure along the western limb of the HKS from Balakot to Kohala

(Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Fig. 2.5). The active evidence along the fault include offset of streams,


22

tilted and deformed Quaternary terraces, nick points and dissected spurs (Baig and Lawrence,

1987). This is a left lateral strike slip reverse fault with offset of 31 km along the western limb of

the HKS (Baig and Lawrence, 1987). The fault is well exposed at Domel and Ambore areas in

Muzaffarabad. The Holocene conglomerates lies in the footwall block and the carbonates of

Precambrian Hazara Formation are in the hanging wall. The Jhelum Fault segment from Kohala to

Azad Pattan shows the Murree Formation in the hanging wall and Kamlial, Chingi and Nagri

Formations in the footwall (Baig et al., 2008).

Chapter 3: Geological setting

23

Geological setting

3.1. General description

In northern Pakistan, the Indian plate collided with the Kohistan Island Arc during the Tertiary

Himalayan collision. The basement and cover rocks of the Indian plate are deformed and

metamorphosed. The foreland fold-and-thrust belt of the Indian plate can be divided into three

main tectonic units. These tectonic units are the internal metamorphosed zone, external

unmetamorphosed to low grade metamorphosed zone and foreland basin sediments (Fig. 2.3).

The internal metamorphosed zone is between the PT and MMT. This zone comprises of

metamorphosed cover and basement rocks of the Indian plate. The basement rocks are

Precambrian metasediments and gneisses intruded by lower Paleozoic granites (Greco, 1989). The

cover rocks and basement are metamorphosed from greenschist to amphibolite facies. The external

unmetamorphosed to low grade metamorphosed zone are between the PT and MBT. The rocks

include Precambrian to Tertiary cover sequence of Indian plate (Latif, 1970; Calkins et al., 1975).

The external zone is imbricated and folded. The foreland basin sediments are bounded by the MBT

and SRT. The SRT delineates the southern most extent of the foreland basin sediments. The

Eocambrian to Tertiary sedimentary cover rocks are exposed in the basin. These Himalayan

tectonic units are folded to form the HKS (Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Bossart et al., 1988).

3.2. Geology of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis

The most prominent geological structure in the western Himalayas in northern Pakistan is known

as HKS. It covers the most complex region of the mountain range. The sedimentary to

metamorphic rock sequence is imbricated and folded to form HKS during the Tertiary Himalayan

collision (Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Bossart et al., 1988;

Greco, 1991). The PT at the apex and eastern limb of HKS marks tectonic boundary between the

Carboniferous-Triassic Panjal Formation and Precambrian metamorphosed Tanol Formation. The

Tanol Formation is intruded by Cambrian Mansehra granite. Whereas, along the western limb of

the HKS, PT separates the Precambrian Tanol Formation from the Precambrian Hazara Formation,

Cambrian Abbotabad Group, Jurassic-Cretaceous rocks and Paleocene-Eocene sequence (Fig. 3.1).

The geology in the core of the HKS includes carbonates of Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation,

Paleocene- Eocene limestones, shale, clay, siltstone and sandstone sequence and Miocene Murree

and Kamlial Himalayan molasse (Calkins et al., 1975; Bossart et al., 1988; Greco, 1989; Munir et

al., 2006; Baig and Snee, 1995; Fig. 3.1).


24

These sediments lie in the foot wall block of the MBT. The MBT and PT wrap around the Murree

Formation which lies in the core of the HKS. The thrust zone between PT and MBT is narrow

along the eastern limb and wider along the western limb of HKS (Baig and Lawrence, 1987).

Fig. 3.1 Map showing the geological units and faults of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (compiled after

Wadia, 1931; Latif, 1970; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco, 1989; Hussain et

al., 2004; Munir et al., 2006 and Kaneda et al., 2008).


25

3.3. Geological setting of the study area

The regional stratigraphy of HKS shows sedimentary, metasedimentary, metavolcanics and

metaigneous rock units. These lithostratigraphic units have different geological control on the

mass movements of the area. The Precambrian to Tertiary rocks are exposed in the HKS around

Muzaffarabad areas (Fig. 3.2). The rock sequence includes the Precambrian Hazara and Tanol

Formations, the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation and Mansehra Granite, the Carboniferous-

Triassic Panjal Formation, the Paleocene-Eocene sequence, the Early Miocene Murree Formation,

the Late Miocene Kamlial Formation and Quaternary sediments.

Fig. 3.2 Geological map of Jhelum valley, Neelum valley and Muzaffarabad city (compiled and

modified after Wadia, 1931; Latif, 1970; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco,

1989; Hussain et al., 2004, Munir et al., 2006 and Kaneda et al., 2008).


26

The earlier workers like Wadia (1931), Calkins et al., (1975), Greco (1991), Baig and Snee (1995),

Hussain et al., (2004), Khan (1994), Iqbal et al., (2004) and Munir et al., (2006) worked on the

stratigraphy and structure of the area. The stratigraphic sequence affected by Kashmir earthquake

2005 in Muzaffarabad and surrounding areas is presented in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Geology of the earthquake affected area.

Name Lithology Age

Quaternary Stream bed deposits and alluvium.

Holocene

Kamlial Formation Sandstones, shales, claystones and minor intraformational conglomerates.

Late Miocene

Murree Formation

Interbedded sandstones, siltstones with shales

and claystones.

Early Miocene

Paleocene-Eocene (Hangu, Lochart, Patala, Margala,

Chorgali and Kuldana Formations)

Nodular limestones, calcareous and

carbonaceous shales, claystones and laterite.

Paleocene-

Eocene

Panjal Formation

Metacarbonates, metasediments, metabasic volcanics, quartzite and graphitic schists.

Carboniferous-

Triassic

Muzaffarabad

Formation

Manshera Granite

Cherty and stromatolitic dolomites, cherty white

and grey bands, limestones and black shales

Coarse grained two-mica granite gneiss.

Cambrian

Cambrian

Tanol Formation

Pelitic and psammitic metasediments,

subordinate minor graphitic schist, talc schist and marbles.

Precambrian

Hazara Formation

Slate, phyllite and shales with minor limestones

and graphitic layers.

Precambrian

The brief description of rock units involved in Kashmir earthquake 2005 within study area is as

follows.

3.3.1. Hazara Formation

The Precambrian Hazara Formation is well exposed in AJK along the western limb of HKS (Figs.

3.1 and 3.2). In Muzaffarabad, the formation is exposed on Muzaffarabad-Mansehra road and

along the right bank of Jhelum river (Fig. 3.3). The lower contact of Hazara Formation with the


27

Murree Formation is faulted, whereas the overlying contact with the Abbotabad Formation is

unconformable in Abbotabad area (Latif, 1974).

Fig. 3.3 The slates of Hazara Formation are well exposed along Muzaffarabad–Mansehra road in

Muzaffarabad area.

Lithologicaly, the formation consists of slates, phyllite, metasandstone and shale with minor

limestone and graphitic layers. The limestone with quartzite layers occur within the Hazara

Formation along the MBT from Domel Muzaffarabad to Rara and extended further southward

(Khan, 1994). The fresh color of slate and phyllite is black and green to dark green, however, the

weathering color is brown and dark green. The color of limestone is dark grey to greyish, whereas,

the quartzite is greenish to whitish grey (Calkins et al., 1975). The limestone beds with maximum

thickness of 150 meters and a sequence of calcareous phyllite and gypsum ranging from 30 to 120

meters thick are found in southern most Hazara and AJK (Calkins et al., 1975). The sedimentary

structures like fine lamination graded bedding and cross bedding can be seen in the slates.

Crawford and Davis (1975) analyzed three samples of low grade fine grained clastic rocks from

the Hazara Formation for age determination by the Rb-Sr method and obtained ages of 765±20 and

950±20 Ma. Calkins et al. (1975) assigned Precambrian age to the Hazara Formation.


28

3.3.2. Tanol Formation

The Tanol Formation includes pelitic and psammitic metasedimentary rocks with local subordinate

graphitic schist, talc schist and marbles (Table 3.1). It is intruded by doloritic and granitic

intrusions. The unit is well-exposed in the south and southeastern margin of the Mansehra Granite

and around the HKS (Fig. 3.2). The Tanol Formation mainly consists of medium grained quartzite

and fine grained mica-quartz schist south of Mansehra Granite. The grade of metamorphism in

Tanol Formation increases from south to north.

The thickness of the Tanol Formation is difficult to measure due to structural complications.

Marks and Ali (1962) estimated the thickness ~ 1,600 m. At quite a few places, the Tanol

Formation is missing and the Hazara Formation underlies the Abbottabad Formation. The Tanol

Formation underlies the Abbottabad Formation and overlies the Hazara Formation in the area

between Abbottabad and Indus river. The contact between the Abbottabad Formation and the

Tanol Formation in this area is marked by an unconformity which is represented by a boulder bed

known as Tanakki conglomerate.

The Tanol Formation is devoid of fossils. However, from the above mentioned contact relation it is

evident that the Tanol Formation is younger than the Hazara Formation of Precambrian age and

older than the Abbottabad Formation. Latif (1974) assigned the age of the Tanol Formation is

Precambrian on the basis of Cambrian fossils in the Abbottabad Formation.

3.3.3. Muzaffarabad Formation

The cherty and stromatolitic dolomites, cherty white and grey bands, limestones and black shales

are called Muzaffarabad Formation (Baig and Snee, 1995; Figs. 3.1 and 3.2). The Muzaffarabad

Formation is well exposed in northeast of Muzaffarabad city (Fig. 3.4) in the core of Muzaffarabad

anticline. The fresh color of Muzaffarabad Formation is grey to dark grey and weathered color is

light brown and grey. The rock unit has sedimentary breccia and conglomerate layers on the top.

Stromatolite are developed in the dolomite and its good exposures are found at the Neelum valley

section. The dolomites are thin to thick bedded. The estimated thickness of Muzaffarabad

Formation is ~ 800 meters in the northeast of Muzaffarabad (Calkins et al., 1975).

The lower contact of Muzaffarabad Formation is faulted with Murree Formation along

Muzaffarabad Fault, while the upper contact with Paleocene-Eocene sequence is unconformable.

The Muzaffarabad Formation along this fault is highly crushed and sheared for a width of about

150-300 meters to the north and northeast of Muzaffarabad city. The Muzaffarabad Formation is

stratigraphic equivalent to fossiliferious Cambrian Abbottabad Formation of Latif (1974). The age

of Muzaffarabad Formation is Cambrian.


29

Fig. 3.4 The highly crushed and sheared bedded Muzaffarabad Formation exposed at Kamsar area,

in the northeast of Muzaffarabad city.

3.3.4. Mansehra Granite

The coarse grained two-mica granite gneiss intrudes Tanol Formation. It is known as Mansehra

Granite. The rock unit is well exposed within the tectonic unit of Tanol Formation in the eastern

and western limbs of HKS (Greco, 1989; Figs. 3.1 and 3.2). These gneisses are coarse grained with

augen structure. The Mansehra Granite is composed of quartz, feldspar, muscovite, biotite, epidote

and tourmaline minerals. The rock unit has been assigned Cambrian age (LeFort et al., 1980).

3.3.5. Panjal Formation

The formation is well exposed in Neelum and Kaghan valleys. Midlemiss (1910) mapped the belt

of metacarbonates, metasediments, metavolcanics, quartzite and graphitic schists at the apex of the

HKS. Wadia (1931) called it Panjal Volcanics Series and assigned the name of Panjal Formation.

In Muzaffarabad area, the Panjal Formation lies between the MBT and PT (Figs. 3.1 and 3.2).

The Panjal Formation consists of two units namely Panjal metasediments and Panjal volcanics.

Lithologically, the formation consists of metacarbonates, metasediments, metavolcanics, quartzite


30

and graphitic schists (Calkins et al., 1975). The carbonate rocks of the Panjal Formation are

crystalline limestones and dolomitic limestones. The Panjal volcanics consist of green to greenish

grey basaltic lava flows with tuffaceous layer and subordinate intercalation of limestone. The

volcanics are characterized by massive lava flows and pillow lava with intercalations of limestone

and bedded chert. Sequence of this formation at some places also contains serictic, quartzitic and

metapelitic rocks with subordinate lenses of volcanics. According to Calkins et al., (1975), the

volcanic greenstone generally display a weakly developed schistosity in most places parallel to the

original layering. The volcanics were metamorphosed to lower greenschist facies during

Himalayan orogeny. Fossils have been discovered from various localities which indicate Triassic

age. The Panjal Formation has been assigned an Upper Carboniferous-Triassic age (Wadia, 1928

and 1931).

3.3.6. Paleocene-Eocene sequence

In this study, the Hangu, Lockhart, Patala, Margala, Chorgali and Kuldana Formations are

compiled collectively as Paleocene-Eocene sequence (Figs. 3.1 and 3.2).

3.3.6.1. Hangu Formation

The rocks of Hangu Formation in Muzaffarabad are exposed along the Neelum valley road section

at Yadgar, Batmang and towards east at Khilla, Maira Tanolian and Tanda Botha areas. The

formation is thinly developed and occurs in patches along Muzaffarabad Formation.

Lithologically, the formation consists of brecciated quarzite, bauxite, limonite, fire clay,

carbonaceous shales, sandstones, coal seams and conglomerates (Ashraf et al., 1989). The shales

of Hangu Formation are grey and sandstone is light grey and reddish brown. The sandstone is fine

to coarse grained and medium bedded. The limonite and bauxite are found near Yadgar area of

Muzaffarabad. The lower contact with Muzaffarabad Formation is unconformable, whereas the

upper contact with Lockhart Formation is sharp. The age assigned to Hangu Formation is Early

Paleocene (Munir and Baig, 2006; Munir et al., 2006).

3.3.6.2. Lockhart Formation

The Lockhart Formation is exposed in Muzaffarabad near Yadgar, Khilla and Tanda-Botha areas.

The formation consists of limestones and subordinate shales. These limestones are thinly to

medium bedded with marly intercalations. At places it is nodular and nodularity increases toward

the top of formation. The nodules are generally 2-6 cm in length and 1-5 cm in width (Munir et al.,

2006). The limestone is grey to dark grey on fresh surface, while dirty grey to light grey on


31

weathered surface. The lower and upper contacts are conformable with Hangu Formation and

Patala Formation respectively. The age assigned to this formation on the basis of fossils is Early

Paleocene (Munir and Baig, 2006).

3.3.6.3. Patala Formation

The outcrop of Patala Formation is well exposed near Yadgar and Tanda-Botha areas of

Muzaffarabad. The Patala Formation consists of shales, claystone, siltstone and sandy limestone.

The shales are dark to greenish grey. These are carbonaceous and calcareous. The limestone is

white to light grey and nodular. These shales contain coal seams. The lower contact of Patala

Formation with Lockhart Formation is gradational, while the upper contact with Margala Hill

Formation is transitional. The formation is richly fossiliferious and contains abundant foraminifers.

On the basis of fossils, the formation is Late Paleocene (Munir and Baig, 2006; Munir et al.,

2006).

3.3.6.4. Margala Hill Formation

The Margala Hill Formation is well exposed in Muzaffarabad along Neelum valley road section.

Lithologically, the formation consists of limestone with subordinate marl and shale. It is hard,

massive and thin to thick bedded at Yadgar near Muzaffarabad (Fig. 3.5). The limestone is grey to

dark grey on fresh broken surfaces, whereas the weathered color is pale grey. The limestone is

nodular, fine to medium grained and hard. The marl is grey to brownish grey, while the shale is

greenish brown to brown.

The lower contact of the Margala Hill Formation with Patala Formation is gradational in Kaghan

area (Ghazanfer and Chaudhry, 1986), whereas the upper contact with Kuldana Formation is

transitional in Muzaffarabad area. Munir and Baig (2006) recorded a number of foraminifers from

the formation and assigned an Early Eocene age.


32

Fig. 3.5 Margala Hill limestone exposed at Yadgar area, Muzaffarabad.

3.3.6.5. Chorgali Formation

The Chorgali Formation is exposed in Yadgar, Khilla and Tanda-Botha areas in Muzaffarabad.

Lithologically, the formation consists of shales, limestone and dolomitic limestone (Munir et al.,

2006). The shales are calcareous and grey to greenish grey. The dolomitic limestone is white to

light grey and platy.

The lower and upper contacts of the Chorgali Formation with Margala Hill Formation and

Kuldana Formation are gradational. On the basis of fossils, the age assigned to Chorgali Formation

is Early Eocene (Munir and Baig, 2006).

3.3.6.6. Kuldana Formation

In Muzaffarabad, the rocks of Kuldana Formation are exposed along the Neelum valley road

section. In this area, the Chorgali Formation passes gradually into the Kuldana Formation.

Lithologically, the Kuldana Formation consists of maroon to dark red clays and shales with

subordinate green to greenish grey shales and fine grained sandstone. The lower contact with the

Chorgali Formation is gradational, while upper contact with the Murree Formation is transitional.

On the basis of fossils Munir et al., (2006) and Munir and Baig (2006) assigned early to middle

Eocene age to the Kuldana Formation.


33

3.3.7. Murree Formation

The Murree Formation occupies the major extent of the study area from south to north in Jhelum

and Neelum valleys (Figs. 3.1 and 3.2). It has faulted contact with Panjal Formation along MBT in

the eastern limb of the HKS. It is well exposed in Chalpani, Ghori, Pattika and Panjgran areas of

Neelum valley. In Jhelum valley, it is exposed near Niazpura, Kardala, Langarpura, Paprusa, Khun

Bandi and Hattian Bala areas. It is also well exposed along Muzaffarabad to Kohala road (Fig.

3.6).

The Murree Formation consists of interbedded sandstones, siltstones, shales and claystones. The

sandstone displays cross bedding and ripple marks. The sandstone is medium grained and medium

to thick bedded. The weathered color of sandstone is grey to dark grey and reddish brown while

fresh color is grey. The calcite and quartz veins are abundantly present within the sandstone. The

siltstone is thin bedded. The shales of Murree Formation are reddish brown.

Fig. 3.6 Fractured and jointed sandstone of the Miocene Murree Formation exposed in the Jhelum

valley area.

Wadia (1928) divided Murree Formation into lower and upper parts on lithological basis. These

two parts have been identified in the field in Jhelum valley. Generally the sandstone of Lower


34

Murree Formation is hard and fine grained and is associated with red purple colored shales. In the

upper Murree Formation, the sandstone is soft, coarse grained and micaceous with pale grey to

brownish grey in color. The beds of sandstone, clay and shale alternate with each other showing

that the Murree Formation is the result of cyclic deposition. The Murree Formation represents the

molasse of the Himalayan orogeny.

The Murree Formation shows a considerable thickness in AJK. Calkins et al. (1975) have recorded

a thickness of 1500 meters of the Murree Formation in Muzaffarabad area. The lower and upper

contacts of Murree Formation with Kuldana Formation and Kamlial Formation are transitional

respectively. The age assigned to the Murree Formation is Early Miocene (Munir and Baig, 2006).

3.3.8. Kamlial Formation

The Formation is exposed along the left bank of the river Jhelum in Kumar Bandi and Garhi

Dopatta areas (Fig. 3.2). The formation mainly consists of sandstones, shales, claystones and

minor intraformational conglomerates. The sandstone is purple grey and blackish grey, medium to

coarse grained, hard and compact. The Kamlial Formation is differentiated from Murree

Formation by its spheroidal weathering and dominance of mineral tourmaline over epidote. The

formation overlies the Murree Formation with a transitional contact while the upper contact is not

exposed in the study area. The age of the Kamlial Formation is Late Miocene.

3.3.9. Quaternary Sediments

The Quaternary sediments include alluvium and colluvium deposits are well exposed within the

study area and are briefly described as follows.

3.3.9.1. Alluvium deposit

The alluvium deposits consist of boulders, cobbles, gravel, sand, or silt. The deposits in the

Muzaffarabad city show the braided stream deposition. These deposits unconformably overlie the

bedrocks of different ages. The alluvium deposits are present throughout the area. In Chellah

Bandi, the alluvium unconformably overlies the bedrock of Murree Formation. At the base of

alluvium, the braided stream deposits of Neelum river that include boulders, cobbles and pebbles

of the Tanol Formation, Panjal Formation, granites, gneisses, marbles, sandstone, dolomite and

quartzite in sandy and silty matrix. The braided stream deposits at places have the layers and

lenses of sand, silt and clay are present. Generally, on the top of the braided stream deposits there

are deposits of 2-3 meters layer of sand, silt and clay.


35

The alluvial fans are present along the left bank of Neelum river in Chellah Bandi, Dhanni, Plate,

Dherian and Maira Tanolian areas (Fig. 3.7). These alluvial fans mostly include the angular to sub-

angular fragments of Muzaffarabad Formation, whereas fragments of Murree Formation are mixed

at the base. At places, these alluvial fans are intermingled with the river alluvium.

The alluvial deposits present in Gojra and Chatter Domel areas unconformably overlie the Hazara

Formation. The alluvial fans in these areas mostly include the fragments of Hazara Formation. The

terraces present in Maira Kalan, Miani Bandi, Langarpura, Paprusa and Khund Bandi in Jhelum

valley areas are the alluvium deposits of Jhelum river. These deposits include boulders, cobbles

and pebbles of Panjal Formation, Siwaliks, quartzites and sandstones embedded in sand, silt and

clay matrix. The alluvial fans in these areas include angular to sub-angular fragments of sandstone

and siltstone of Murree Formation in clayey and silty matrix.

3.3.9.2. Colluvium deposit

The material that accumulates at the base of the slope as the result of the gravity or any other

triggering factor is called colluvium. It includes rock fall deposits that accumulate at the base of

the talus. Similarly, landslide, slump and debris deposits formed from any of the surficial materials

as defined above.

The colluvium deposits are the angular to sub-angular fragments of Muzaffarabad, Murree and

Hazara formations in Muzaffarbad city. In Muzaffarabad, these deposits are present in Makri Nala,

Shahwi Nala and upper Rinjata areas (Fig. 3.8). These deposit lies mainly at the base of the steep

cliffs along the streams. The colluvium deposits present in Neelum valley belongs to the Murree

Formation. However, at Nausari these deposits belong to the Tanol Formation. Likewise, in

Jhelum valley area, these deposits are present along the Jhelum river and belong to the Murree

Formation.

Fig. 3.7 The alluvial fan deposits near

Chellah Bandi, Muzaffarabad.

Fig. 3.8 Talus slope deposit at the base of

cliff at Shahwi nala, Muzaffarabad

Chapter 4: Methodology

36

Methodology

4.1. Introduction

The methodology used to investigate the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005 is similar to those described in the existing literature. Medium and high resolution satellite

data (SPOT-5 (2.5 m), Quickbird (0.6 m)), Digital Elevation Models (ASTER and SRTM), field

data and published literature were used in this study. Satellite imageries supplemented with field

data were used for the statistical analysis of the mass movement distribution. The principal

methodological steps followed during the research work are presented in Fig. 4.1. A detail account

of methodology for mass movement distribution analysis and empirical analysis has been

discussed under following sections.

4.2. Available resources

4.2.1. Literature collection

The existing scientific literature relevant to the mass movement investigation included published

research papers, technical reports and maps covering the field of geology, seismology and

geotechnical investigation were collected. They were mostly produced after the Kashmir

earthquake 2005. However, unpublished investigations before the earthquake, though with

sporadic information and unsystematically recorded, have also provided some information on the

mass movement events. The unpublished technical reports and theses work carried out after the

earthquake by Japan International Corporation Agency (JICA), Japan Society of Civil Engineers

(JSCE), National Engineering Services Pakistan (NESPAK), Earthquake Reconstruction and

Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), GSP, Azad Kashmir Mineral and Industrial Development

Corporation (AKMIDC) and Institute of Geology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir

(UAJK) were also consulted. This information generally deals with the mass movements and their

impacts, however, some basic information about mass movement events triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005 was also provided in some of the literatures.

4.2.2. Topographical maps

Topographical maps at a scale of 1: 50,000 with contour intervals of 30 meters from the Survey of

Pakistan (Sheet No. 43F/7, 43F/11, 43F/12 and 43F/16) were used in this study. These maps were

obtained from the Planning and Development department AJK, Muzaffarbad. They were scanned

and geo-referenced by using the projection parameters given in the map. These maps being very

old and often generalized with low accuracy and poor representation of contour lines and relief


37

were used as the base map of the area, for the identification of locations and the topographical

features.

Fig. 4.1 Methodological steps used during the research work.

Literature

review

Geol. data

DEMs Satellite imagery

Data analysis

Classification Distribution map Case

studies

Database inventory

Statistical

analysis

Empirical

analysis

Conclusions

Start

Available

data

Field

survey

Photographs

Profiles

Mapping


38

4.2.3. Geological maps

A geological map of the investigated area prepared in April 2004 by the GSP was digitized and

modified at a scale of 1:50,000. A number of previously published maps (Wadia, 1931; Calkins et

al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco, 1991; Hussain et al., 2004; Kaneda et al., 2008) were

used to compile and refine the present geological map of the study area. A geological map of

Hattian Bala area prepared by GSP after the Kashmir earthquake 2005 was digitized and modified

at a scale of 1: 10,000.

4.2.4. Satellite imagery

The processed satellite imageries (SPOT-5 and Quickbird) of the study area, taken immediately

after the Kashmir earthquake 2005 were obtained from the Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften

und Rohstoffe (BGR) and GSP. These satellite imageries were used for the identification of the

mass movement events triggered by the earthquake, prior to the field investigation. Visual

interpretations of mass movements were made simply by identifying the areas where vegetation

was removed due to the downslope movement.

4.2.5. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs)

The pre- and post-earthquake topographic contour lines were derived from the ASTER and SRTM

based Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). They were used during field investigation. An ASTER

based DEM was used to calculate the topographic parameters (slope angle, slope aspect, and

elevation) for the statistical analysis of the mass movement distribution triggered by the

earthquake.

4.3. Field survey

Field surveys were conducted during 2009 and 2010 to collect the field data for the investigation

of the mass movements. Multiple field visits were carried out (March-April, 2009; October-

November, 2009; September-October, 2010) to collect the field data systematically. Prior to the

field visits, existing scientific literature was thoroughly reviewed. In addition, topographic,

tectonic, seismological, geological, and mass movement distribution maps were collected and

examined in details.

The Kashmir earthquake induced mass movements are clearly visible on the medium and highly

resolution SPOT-5 (2.5 m) and Quickbird (0.6 m) imageries (Fig. 4.2). The SPOT-5 images cover

the whole study area, while the Quickbird imageries were only available for an area of about 271


39

km2 of Muzaffarbad city and its surroundings. From these satellite images by visually inspecting,

the locations and extent of mass movements were easily mapped.

Fig. 4.2 SPOT-5 (A) and Quickbird (B) imagery show the mass movements triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Botha area Muzaffarbad.

Using these satellite imageries, 1,460 mass movement events were interpreted within an area of

approximately 1,299 km2 in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley and Neelum valley

areas (Fig. 4.3). Of these, 127 mass movements were identified for field investigation. Four case

studies (Hattian Bala rock avalanche, Langarpura and Neelidandi rock falls, Panjgran slump and

rock fall) were selected for detailed geotechnical mapping. These large scale mass movements

were geologically and structurally mapped at a scale of 1:10,000.

The mass movement events identified from the satellite imageries for field investigation were

visited, observed and cross checked during the field work in October 2009 and September 2010.

The criteria used for the identification and investigation of mass movements in field included the

visits of the general aspect of the slope failure, area above detachment zone, detachment zone,

transport area and deposit area. The general aspect included the triggering causes, damages, and

victims. However, all mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 were identified.

A B


40

Fig. 4.3 The mass movements interpreted from SPOT satellite imageries and field investigation

within the study area.

The mass movements triggered before the earthquake were almost reactivated during the Kashmir

earthquake 2005. This was verified during the field visits and interviewing the local residents on

sites. The damages and victims were assessed only for large scale mass movements. The data

collection of the area above the detachment zone included: altitude, average slope angle, geometry,

presence of cracks, geology, soil cover, weathering phenomena and hydrology. The data collection

of the area of the detachment zone covers: geometry, geology, morphology, rock type, and

process. Transport and deposit area were used as criteria for mass movement travel distance and


41

volume of the deposit. This includes the geometry, length profile, Fahrböschung angle, shadow

angle, talus slope angle, deposit and material (Appendix 1).

During the following field visits, systematic measurements were taken by using the Braunton

Compass, Laser distance meter, Global Positioning System (GPS), Clinometer and measuring tape.

Field methods were adopted following Willianson et al., (1991). Braunton Compass was used to

measure the attitude of the bed rock and dip of the scarp. The elevation and geographic coordinates

of mass movement were taken using portable GPS receiver (Garmin eTrex series, with an accuracy

of ± 10 meters). GPS waypoints were gathered at specific locations around the mass movements to

map the scarp and the body of the mass movements in the field. However, these data were not

collected for all mass movement events identified in the field due to inaccessible high mountain

terrain and steep slopes. As a result, GPS way points were gathered only for larger scale mass

movements or wherever it was possible. A laser distance meter (RIEGL FG21-HA, with an

accuracy of ± 1meter) was used for absolute horizontal measurement. These field measurements

were used to construct the geological longitudinal profiles. Clinometer was used to measure the

Fahrböschung angle, shadow angle and talus slope angle on site in field. The length and width

were measured directly on site during field visits. Measuring tape was used to measure the

dimension of the mass movements. The depth was estimated by judging the height of the shear

surface or the thickness of the deposit material. The volumes of mass movements were estimated

by multiplying the deposit area by an estimated average thickness.

The topographic maps were enlarged at a scale of 1:10,000 after they had been geo-referenced.

These maps supplemented with satellite imageries were used to map the mass movement events

during the field visits. Field mapping included scarp, body and deposit of the mass movement. The

tensional cracks and any other specific features (secondary scarp, morphology etc.) were also

included. For detailed mapping of large scale mass movements, the geology and structural features

were also mapped. Physical features of the mass movements were observed and noted during the

field visits. Many features were examined to get the information on the size and characteristics of

the mass movements. However, inaccessible physical features were viewed from the road or at the

base of mass movements and photographed for further description of the features of these mass

movements.


42

Fig. 4.4 Examples of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 in NW

Himalayan, Pakistan. A. Subri rock fall blocked the Jhelum valley road during the earthquake, B.

Rockslide of Saran area caused to damage the houses, C. Dehrian Saidan rock fall on hills of

Muzaffarabad city, D. Debris fall near the Pattika town, E. Author measuring absolute horizontal

distance of mass movement in field, and F. Fractured sandstone in Miocene Murree Formation at

Makri, Muzaffarabad.


43

4.4. Database inventory

For any type of mass movement investigation a correct inventory database is pre-requisite (Varnes,

1984). Unfortunately before the earthquake 2005 the mass movement information was sporadic

and no systematic investigation was carried out. The scientific papers and technical reports for the

mass movement investigations about the study area were produced by international and national

scientific communities after the Kashmir earthquake 2005. Engineering Cell, ERRA first time after

the earthquake collected the information of 64 mass movements along the road side in the Jhelum

valley and the Neelum valley area. This information was of initial level and relatively incomplete

to be used for further scientific investigations. Owen et al. (2008) developed an inventory data

base containing 1,293 mass movements at 174 locations. This data base contains only information

about locations and types of failures. Therefore, it was necessary to develop a complete database

including all information such as length, width, height, depth, volume, area, Fahrböschung angle,

shadow angle and talus slope angle as a pre-requisite to investigate the mass movements triggered

by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. The following available resources and methods were used to

prepare the mass movement inventory data base for this study:

• Published research papers and technical reports

• Satellite imageries

• Extensive field visits using field mapping

• GPS survey

• Questionnaire / record sheets

The characteristics of all mass movement events mapped during the field investigations were

examined and verified with the photographs taken and the questionnaires filled during the field

work. The data base of 127 mass movement events triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 was

prepared. The database inventory included: geographic coordinates, locations, type, elevation at

top, elevation at toe, length, width, height, depth, Fahrböschung angle, shadow angle, talus slope

angle, surface area, deposit area, volume, triggering factor, nature of material, predominant bed

rock, boulder size, cracks, vegetation and geological formations. The surface area and the deposit

area were calculated for all mapped mass movements after digitizing by using ArcGIS 9.3

software (Fig. 4.5).


44

Fig. 4.5 Mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 data base interface prepared

in ArcGIS 9.3.

The data for statistical analysis of mass movement distribution was prepared using the satellite

imageries incorporating field data and ASTER based DEM. Numbers, distances, mass movement

concentration and areas of mass movements triggered by the earthquake were calculated. The

methodology adopted for this analysis is described in detail in chapter 6 (see for detail in section

6.2)

For the empirical analysis, 103 mass movement events were selected (Appendix II). These include

the parameters: length, height, depth, surface area, deposit area, volume, Fahrböschung angle,

shadow angle and talus slope angle. These mass movement events were classified as: rock fall,

debris fall and mountain fall based on the volumemetric classifications of Varnes (1978) and Fell

(1994). The detail description of methodology used for empirical analysis in this study is described

in chapter 7 (see for detail in section 7.3).

4.5. Data analysis

The mass movement classification map was prepared with data collected by own field

investigations. The mass movements were classified as: landslide, rock fall, debris fall, rock

avalanche, slump and rock fall during field observations according to the classification system of

Varnes (1978). The geographical distribution maps of Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley and


45

Neelum valley areas were prepared based on field data and satellite imageries. These maps were

produced in Arc Map of ESRI ArcGIS 9.3 software. The maps were georeferenced to the

Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection system and oriented to the 43 North datum WGS

(1984).

The mass movement distribution map of the study area was prepared at a scale of 1:50,000. This

map is the base for the statistical analysis of the mass movement distribution. The 1,460 mass

movements were interpreted using points for initiation zones and polygons for the surface area.

ArcGIS 9.3 was used to analyze the relationship among the mass movement distribution and

causal factors. Correlation and linear regression methods were used to determine the relationship

between the distance from the epicenter and active Muzaffarabad Fault and the mass movement

distribution. Empirical models were adopted for the empirical analysis to determine the

relationships between the various geometrical parameters of mass movement events collected in

the field.

Chapter 5: Mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005

46

Mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005

5.1. General overview

Mass movements are generally associated with a trigger such as an earthquake, heavy rain fall and

human activity. An earthquake having a minimum magnitude of 4.0 might cause mass movements

from vulnerable slopes, and an earthquakes with higher magnitudes can cause increased numbers

of mass movements, covering an area of about 10,000 to 40,000 km2 (Keefer, 1984, 1999, 2002).

The Kashmir earthquake 2005 having magnitude 7.6, triggered thousands of mass movements

throughout an area of more than 7,500 km2 (Fujiwara et al., 2006; Sato et al., 2007; Kamp et al.,

2008; Owen et al., 2008). However, this earthquake induced less numbers of mass movements in

the area as compared to other earthquakes in the world (Harp and Jibson, 1996; Hung, 2000;

Keefer, 2002; Khazai and Sitar, 2003; Qi et al., 2010).

The area affected by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 was rugged mountainous terrain with many

previous mass movements. Most slopes in the epicentral region and along the hanging wall block

of Muzaffarabad Fault from Balakot to Bagh have exposures of weathered bedrock or thin

colluvium. The weathering of rock depends upon the climatic conditions, geology, structure,

topography, vegetation, and slopes of the area. Rain fall is the main weathering agent. Heavy rain

fall, high relief, and highly sheared and fractured rock units made mass wasting an important

degradation process. The degraded talus accumulated on the low foot hills in the earthquake

affected area.

5.1.1. Damages caused by mass movements

The perception of the impact of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005

was much lower in comparison with major earthquakes in the world (Harp et al., 1981; Keefer,

1984; Khazai and Sitar, 2003; Wang and Sassa, 2006 and Qi et al., 2010). However, the economic

losses and casualties were much greater than commonly recognized. The Kashmir earthquake

induced mass movements caused damages and devastation throughout the affected area. The

economic value of damages of infrastructure in PAK exceeds comparatively the other part of the

affected region. The mass movements caused sewere damage to cultivated land and destroyed

many structures. Consequently, Muzaffarabad and many other towns and villages leaving isolated

as long as weeks to months, due to the disruption of the communication links. The numbers of

fatalities associated with these mass movements in this earthquake was approximately 26,000

indirectly (Petley et al., 2006) and 1,000 directly (Kamp et al., 2008). The only one big event, the

Hattian Bala rock avalanche killed 575 people and damages five villages.


47

5.1.2. Earthquake induced mass movements

The Muzaffarabad district, covering an area of about 1,299 km2, was selected as study area

because it was the most affected by the mass movements during the Kashmir earthquake 2005

(Fig. 5.1). Generally, the mass movements were focused in a narrow band clustering in few

specific zones along the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault (Owen et al., 2008), but it quickly

dissipated with distance away from the fault rupture zone. Similar patterns were recorded in

previous earthquakes triggering mass movements in the world (Bull et al., 1994; Keefer, 2000;

Gallousi and Koukouvelas, 2007).

In general, the mass movements started at an elevation between 800-1,500 meters. The slope angle

lies mainly between 20-60 degrees. The average width of the mass movements ranges between 50-

1500 meters. The outstanding features of these mass movements were large scarps and shallow

slope failures along the main roads, rivers and local streams. However, large scars did not produce

large volumes of mobilized material during the rainy season after the earthquake. In many cases,

rock mass converted into yield debris with small volume. In other hand, some cases the materials

have remained on the hillside with extensive tension cracks and fissures. In addition, many cracks

produced by the earthquake fully developed mass movements so the total mass movement damage

would be much greater as preliminary estimated.

Most of the mass movements in the study area occurred in weathered shale, siltstone, interbedded

sandstone and claystone of the Miocene Murree Formation, and highly fractured carbonates rock

of the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation. However, the other formations such as the Precambrian

Hazara and Tanol formations, the Cambrian Mansehra Granite, Paleocene-Eocene sequence and

Quaternary sediments also produced the mass movements in the affected area. Previous studies in

the other part of the world had identified these rocks as highly susceptible to earthquake induced

mass movements, including weakly cemented rocks, artificial fills, uncemented alluvial materials,

and pre-existing mass movements deposits (Keefer, 1984; Khazai and Sitar, 2003; Chigira et al.,

2010). Similar is the case for the Kashmir earthquake triggered mass movements in Muzaffarabad

city, Jhelum valley and Neelum valley areas. In many cases the geological formations that

produced abundant mass movements in this earthquake had been previously identified as highly

susceptible to the mass movements (Farooq, 1997).

The large majority of the mass movements generated throughout the affected area within all types

of geological units were shallow debris cover. All of these geological units are exposed along the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and close to the epicentral area where rock masses are extremely

fractured, and ground motion was very high during the earthquake.


48

Fig. 5.1 Map showing the distribution of mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005, in Muzaffarabad and surrounding areas. The investigated area is marked by a rectangular

polygon (map of Muzaffarabad district digitized and modified after the map from Planning and

Development department AJK, 2007).

5.2. Terminology and classification of mass movements

Several terminologies and definitions of the mass movement classification system of Varnes

(1978, 1984), Hutchinson (1968, 1988), Keefer (1984), Cruden and Varnes (1996) and Hungr et

al., (2001) are widely adopted in the existing scientific literature. These classifications are

inconsistent with each other, depended on the choice of the scientist who investigated the mass

movements, or who supported their research work. Consequently, different terminologies and


49

definitions of mass movement types were observed. Furthermore, the use of these terms differs

substantially in different countries and languages. The most widely accepted classification systems

are the mass movement classification of Varnes (1978), Cruden and Varnes (1996), Keefer (1984)

and Hungr et al., (2001), which can be universally understood. These classification systems are

based on the morphology, mass movement mechanism, geometry of failure area, movement type

and rate, type of material, volume deposit and activity.

5.2.1. Classification system of Varnes (1978)

The classification system of Varnes (1978) is used by many scientists for the study of the types of

failure and the identification of mass movements. In general, various types of mass movements

can be differentiated based on type of movement and type of material (Varnes, 1978). A

classification system based on these parameters is shown in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 Mass movement classification (Varnes, 1978).

TYPE OF MOVEMENT TYPE OF MATERIAL

BEDROCK ENGINEERING SOILS

Predominantly

coarse

Predominantly

fine

FALLS Rock fall Debris fall Earth fall

TOPPLES Rock topple Debris topple Earth topple

SLIDES ROTATIONAL Rock slide Debris slide Earth slide

TRANSLATIONAL

LATERAL SPREADS Rock spread Debris spread Earth spread

FLOWS Rock flow

(deep creep)

Debris flow Earth flow

(soil creep)

Complex Combination of two or more principal types of movement

5.2.2. Classification system of Cruden and Varnes (1996)

The first classification system of mass movements was proposed by Varnes in 1958, subsequent

modifications have been carried out in 1978 and 1996, which are accepted now universally.

Cruden and Varnes (1996) define that the criterion for the identification of mass movement is the

type of movement, whereas further subdivision is made based on the type of material. The type of


50

material is divided into five classes, whereas material is divided into two types, the latter is further

subdivided into debris and earth (Table 5.2).

Table 5.2 Mass movement classification (Cruden and Varnes, 1996).

TYPE OF

MOVEMENT

BEDROCK

TYPE OF MATERIAL

ENGINEERING SOILS

PREDOMINANTLYCOARSE PREDOMINANTLY SOIL

Fall Rock fall Debris fall Earth fall

Topple Rock topple Debris topple Earth topple

Slide Rock slide Debris slide Earth slide

Spread Rock spread Debris spread Earth spread

Flow Rock flow Debris flow Earth flow

5.2.3. Classification system used for this study

In order to classify and define mass movements in this study, the terminology and definitions

adopted in the existing literature were used. The general terminology and classification used is

based on Varnes (1978). The classification used for the statistical analysis of the empirical models

is based on a volumetric nomenclature (Varnes, 1978 and Fell, 1994) to describe the mass

movement travel distance and Fahrböschung angle.

5.3. Types of mass movements induced by the earthquake

The mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake ranged in size from little rock falls upto

a rock avalanche of about 98 million cubic meters. However, the largest numbers of mass

movements were shallow failures of the uppermost few centimeters to meters material. Often only

the debris cover of the hard rocks had been mobilized. Only a few mass movements were deep

seated. The mass movements are mainly divided into two major categories.

i) Shallow mass movements on very steep slopes

ii) Deep seated mass movements


51

5.3.1. Shallow mass movements on very steep slopes

The large majority of the mass movements are shallow mass movements with a thickness of less

than 3 meters. They consist of dry, highly disaggregated, and fractured material that fell down the

slope to flatter areas at or near the base of steep slopes (Fig. 5.2).

Fig. 5.2 Multiple shallow failures on very steep slopes in the Hanging Wall Block (HWB)

Muzaffarabad Fault (MF), northeast of Muzaffarabad city. The Muzaffarabad Formation lies in

the HWB and the Murree Formation in the Foot Wall Block (FWB).

Even though relatively small in thickness, the shallow mass movements contributed significantly

to the earthquake related damage. Furthermore, they posed great threat to main roads and

structures at the slope bases. The shallow mass movements are strongly related on strong ground

motion during the earthquake. However, they appear in all geological units because the main

mobilized material was the debris cover. In Muzaffarabad city, the shallow mass movements

stripped off the mountain vegetation cover from the steep slopes. Consequently, many areas totally

denuded of vegetation could be seen in SPOT satellite image (Fig. 5.3). These types of mass

movements were also widely spread in Jhelum and Neelum valley areas along the roads and rivers.

Furthermore, the unstable nature of the debris and presence of the disrupted rock masses along the


52

slope above the roadway during the rainy season made reconstruction efforts difficult and the

roads remain closed for long times. In general, mass movements in talus deposits in mountain

areas and soil collapses along the streams in the populated areas were also observed. They caused

less direct damage for settlements. The soil collapses to mainly lie on steep cliffs and have a height

of approximately 50 to 90 meters and slope angles of 70 to 85 degree (Kausar, 2008).

Fig. 5.3 SPOT-5 (2.5 m) image showing the mass movements induced by the Kashmir earthquake

2005 denudated the vegetation on the steep slopes in the north and northwestern part of

Muzaffarabad city, and around the Muzaffarabad Hills.

5.3.2. Deep seated mass movements

The deep seated mass movements induced by the earthquake were far less numerous than shallow

mass movements. In contrast to the shallow mass movements that occurred at the steep slopes, the

deep seated mass movements were observed to be reactivated old mass movements. They were

located on the hanging wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and close to the epicenter

region. The biggest deep seated mass movement associated by this earthquake was the Hattian

Bala rock avalanche, which occurred in the southeast of the study area (see detail in section 5.6.2).

The other three significant large scale mass movements are: Langarpura and Neelidandi rock falls,


53

and Panjgran slump and rock fall located in Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley and Neelum valley

areas (see details in section 5.6.3, 5.6.4 and 5.6.5).

5.4. Mass movement identification and classification

The total number of mass movements identified by remote sensing technique was more than 2,400

(Sato et al., 2007) for the whole area affected by the earthquake. Among of them, 1460 mass

movements were identified within the study area using SPOT satellite images (Fig. 5.1). Following

that, 127 mass movements were investigated and documented directly in the field by the author.

Five types of mass movement such as landslide, rock fall, debris fall, rock avalanche, and rock fall

and slump have been classified based on the type of movement and type of material as proposed

by Varnes (1978) (Fig. 5.4; Table 5.3). In general, most of the mass movements were smaller in

volume and scale, and a few were large and deep seated. Furthermore, the general characteristics

of the mass movement were observed to be common to those observed in many previous large

earthquakes in other parts of the world (Keefer, 1984; Khazai and Sitar, 2003; Chigira et al.,

2010).

Table 5.3 Types of mass movements examined in the field (Classification after Varnes, 1978).

Types of mass movements Rock Falls Debris Falls Landslides Rock

Avalanches

Slump and

Rock Fall

Number of mass movements 64 55 6 1 1

The term mass movement (Brunsden, 1984) is used in this study to describe all types of mass

movements. The mass movements investigated during field can be classified within five major

types: (a) Landslide (b) Rock fall (c) Debris fall (d) Rock avalanche (e) Slump and rock fall. A

brief account of these types of mass movements is given below.

5.4.1. Landslides

The term landslide can be defined as “down slope movements of soil or rock masses along the well

defined surface of rupture called slip or shear surface (Cruden and Varnes, 1996). They were

identified by the movement of a relatively intact slide mass above a failure surface (Cruden and

Varnes, 1996). The failure surface usually develops at the contact between the border of loose rock


54

and bedrock. Generally, landslides are divided into two major types: rotational landslides and

translational landslides.

Fig. 5.4 Map showing the distribution and the types of mass movements investigated during field

surveys in 2009 and 2010 for this study.

5.4.1.1. Rotational landslides

In rotational slides, the sliding movement occurs along a shear surface which is concave upwards

in the direction of the movement whereas, the displaced mass rotates about an axis which is

parallel to the slope (Cruden and Varnes, 1996). The displaced material moved downward beyond

the rupture of the surface to deposit the material at the toe.


55

5.4.1.2. Translational landslides

Translational landslides or planer landslides displaced the material down slope on a largely planar

surface. In rock slides usually they occur along discontinuities such as bedding planes and joints,

whereas in debris slides the failure can occur along the shallow shear surface (Cruden and Varnes,

1996). If the overlaying material moves as single or less deformed mass, it is called blockslide.

5.4.1.3. Occurrence of landslides in the study area

Several types of mass movements were triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 such as

rotational landslide, debris slide, rock slide and slump. The major types of mass movements in the

study area are translational and rotational landslides. Translational landslides are seen in many

places and are caused by fragile, highly fractured and jointed rock (Fig. 5.5). The movements are

controlled by large weak zones within the structure of the slope-forming material. These

discontinuities include intersecting joint surfaces, inclined or sub horizontal bedding planes, faults,

thrusts and deposits which display variations in shear strength, as well as shear surfaces generated

through the soil by the failure. Rotational landslides are frequently observed in the study area in

lithologies where relatively homogenous material or jointed rocks were present, for example in

Tertiary rocks.

In total 6 landslides were identified and classified during the field survey (Fig. 5.4; Table 5.3).

Most of the landslides have a distinct toe at the base of the hill side. The material involved is

mostly colluvium and weathered portions of densely fractured rock masses.

Fig. 5.5 Transitional landslide in

Botha area, in the northeast of

Muzaffarbad city triggered by the

earthquake.


56

5.4.2. Rock falls

The rock fall starts with the detachment of rock or cliff from the steep slope along the surface, on

which little or no shear displacements take place. The separation occurs along discontinuities, such

as the fractures, joints and bedding planes. As a result, the material moves down by free fall,

bouncing and rolling (Varnes, 1978). The individual rock falls were identified based on the abrupt

movement of rock masses or rocks and boulders that become detached from steep slopes or cliffs

(Cruden and Varnes, 1996).

5.4.2.1. Occurrence of rock falls in the study area

The predominant type of observed mass movements in the study area is rock fall (Fig. 5.6). Rock

falls are about 71 % of the total mass movements triggered by the earthquake in the whole affected

area (Owen et al., 2008). As a result they blocked the main roads and the connecting roads from

Muzaffarabad city to other areas, and damaged the public utilities during the earthquake. Most of

the rock falls occurred along the Neelum valley and Jhelum valley roads and caused numerous

casualties during the incident.

In total 64 rock falls events were identified and classified according to the classification system of

Varnes (1978) during the field investigation (Fig. 5.4; Table 5.3). They were identified at many

locations along the road and steep cliffs in Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley and Neelum valley

areas. In the area of Neelum valley and Jhelum valley, the rock falls mostly occurred in jointed

Fig. 5.6 The rock fall occurred in weathered shales and

fractured sandstones of Miocene Murree Formation

near Batmang area along the main road of Neelum

valley. This rock fall blocked the Neelum valley road

many days after the earthquake.


57

sandstones of Miocene Murree Formation on steep slopes having slope angles of more than 50

degrees. However, in Muzaffarabad city and the surrounding area the rock falls occurred in

fractured carbonate rocks of the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation along the hanging wall block

of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. In most of these locations, the rocks are highly fragile,

fractured, detached and some rock blocks are still hanging. The most common morphological

indicator of the rock falls in the study area is the accumulation of rock falls material and talus

deposit at the foot of the slope (Fig. 5.6).

5.4.3. Debris falls

The debris falls are similar to rock falls, except they involve a mixture of soil, regolith, vegetation,

and rocks. The movement is relatively free downward or forward falling of an unconsolidated or

weathered portion of densely rock masses from cliff or steep slopes.

5.4.3.1. Occurrence of debris falls in the study area

The earthquake triggered widespread debris falls occurred on steep slopes along the roads, rivers,

stream cuts and low altitude areas (Fig. 5.7). This phenomenon is more frequently observed along

the link roads, due to opening of the fracture as a result of extensive and uncontrolled blasting

during the construction of these roads.

The total 55 events of debris falls were identified from different locations in Muzaffarabad city,

Jhelum valley, and Neelum valley areas (Fig. 5.4; Table 5.3). In most of the locations they become

detached from steep surfaces, where loose or unconsolidated material was present. These locations

are mainly associated with slope angles of 20-60 degrees. They are recognized by common

morphological indicators such as typical slope morphology and grain size distribution.


58

5.4.4. Rock avalanches

The term rock avalanche, also called Sturzstrom (Heim, 1932) proposed by Hungr et al., (2001)

and following closely that of Varnes (1958), is used as the general term for a failure of this type. It

involves unconfined shallow flow of fragmented rock on a steep slope. Rock avalanche originates

as a mass of rock in a rockslide or rock fall fragmenting during failure, finally flowing large

masses of soil, debris, rock or a mixture of these materials in response to the force of gravity. They

are triggered by such events as an earthquake tremors or excessive rainfall on high gradient slopes,

often where materials are loosely consolidated, weathered, or highly fractured.

5.4.4.1. Occurrence of rock avalanche in the study area

The largest mass movements associated with this earthquake was the Hattian Bala rock avalanche,

with an average thickness approximately 60 meters, was truly catastrophic and was responsible

most of the loss of life, caused by the mass movements (see detail description in section 5.6.2).

5.4.5. Slump and rock fall

Slump consist a mass of soil or rock material sliding along a curved surface. The material involved

in the slump rotates along the failure surface. It occurs usually in an area where rock units are

unconsolidated or weak rock layers. Sometime there is combination of slump and rock fall.

Fig. 5.7 Debris fall located in Dunga Kas

Nala in Neelum valley area triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. This debris fall

was occurred at low altitude area along the

stream.


59

5.4.5.1. Occurrence of slump and rock fall in the study area

The only one slump and rock fall was identified in the study area. It occurs in Neelum valley area

close to the earthquake epicenter (Fig. 5.4; Table 5.3). This was an old mass movement which

reactivated during the earthquake (see detail description in section 5.6.5).

5.5. Geographic distribution of mass movements in the study area

For the geographical distribution of mass movements, the study area is outlined into three main

parts based on the geographical and geological significance (Fig. 5.8).

.

Fig. 5.8 Map showing the location of the 3 main study areas: 1. Muzaffarabad city, 2. Jhelum

valley, 3. Neelum valley.


60

1. The Muzaffarabad city area, which encompasses approximately 82 km2 between Chhater on the

south and Kamsar on the north (Fig. 5.10).

2. The Jhelum valley area which covers approximately 392 km2 between Subri on the southwest

and Hattian Bala on the east along the Jhelum river (Fig. 5.15).

3. The Neelum valley area covers approximately 315 km2 from Gujju Saidan on the northwest to

Nausada on northeast along the Neelum river (Fig. 5.17).

These three study areas cover a total of about 790 km2, which is about 65 % of the area. The mass

movement distribution maps were prepared, using SPOT satellite imageries and ground based field

work conducted in 2009-10 for this study. In addition, mass movement inventories containing

information of geometrical parameters were prepared. These inventories provide the information

about length, width, area, and volume of each mass movement.

5.5.1. Mass movements in Muzaffarabad and surrounding area

Muzaffarabad city is located at the confluence of Jhelum and Neelum rivers (Fig. 5.8). The old

part of the city is situated on the left bank of the Neelum river on a Quaternary terrace of river bed

deposits. The hills around the city have mostly gentle to moderate slopes in southwest. In the north

of the city the slopes are mostly steep. Sedimentary rocks of Precambrian to Tertiary age are

exposed in the area. Tectonically the area is very sensitive because two major faults (Muzaffarabad

Fault and Jhelum Fault) run through the area and make a knot just in the NW of the city (Fig. 5.8).

Due to intensive tectonic activities all the strata is highly sheared and fractured. Many small folds

and faults have been observed throughout the area.

Muzaffarabad city was the most affected by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. Some parts of the city

were badly damaged and numerous mass movements occurred on the steep slope of Muzaffarabad

hills, around Muzaffarabad city (Fig. 5.9). These mass movements affected a large number of

communities and most of the structures were totally destroyed or damaged. The inhabitants of the

Muzaffarabad city pose the major threats due to these mass movements.

The 250 mass movements covering an area of 82 km2 of Muzaffarabad city were identified by

SPOT images, taken immediate after the Kashmir earthquake 2005 (Fig. 5.10). Based on these

SPOT satellite images, 60 mass movements, associated with the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault

and Jhelum Fault were investigated by detail field mapping on the scale of 1:10,000 during the

field trips in 2009 and 2010 (Fig. 5.11).


61

Fig. 5.9 Quickbird (0.6 m) image showing shallow and deep mass movements on steep slopes of

Muzaffarabad hills, around Muzaffarabad city. Outline shows the boundary of the mass

movements.

All of the mapped mass movements have the following common features: a source area which

comprises the main scarp, a mass movement trajectory, and a toe or deposition fan, where the mass

movement is accumulated. It should be noted that the deposited fan might not be well developed

because the mass movement materials were deposited on the channel, or it has been eroded by

rivers and local streams during the seasonal water level rises. In addition, many mass movements

were complex to distinguish and to demarcate the boundaries from the other ones (Fig. 5.9).


62

Fig. 5.10 Mass movement distribution map of the Muzaffarabad city and surrounding area.

The inventory map of 60 mass movements of Muzaffarabad city and surrounding area was

prepared entirely from the ground based field work (Table 5.4). The mass movements were

classified in the field using the criteria proposed by Varnes (1978). The mass movements include

rock falls, debris falls and landslides (Fig. 5.11), which are concentrated on the steep slope,

carbonate rocks of Muzaffarbad Formation, weathered shales, claystones and siltstones of Murree

Formation, and slates of Hazara Formation.


63

Fig. 5.11 Types of mass movements in Muzaffarabad city and the surrounding area.

The mass movements were initiated at an elevation of 820-1350 m. The relative elevation

difference from Neelum river to the top of the ridge is about 800 m. The smallest mass movement

mapped in the area was 0.004 km2 and located at Lohargali area, while, the largest mass movement

area was 0.610 km2 (Table 5.4) located at Neelidandi along Muzaffarabad Fault (see detail in

section 5.6.4). The distribution of length, width, area and volume is shown in Table 5.4. For the

examined mass movements the length varies between 40 m to 650 m, with a mean value of 305 m,

and maximum width ranges between 25 m to 1,370 m, with a mean value of 200 m (Table 5.4).

The smallest volume of the mapped mass movements was 0.002 million m3 while, the largest mass

movement has a volume of 3.1 million m3, estimated for Neelidandi rock fall (Table 5.4).


64

Table 5.4 Type, length, width, area and volume of mass movements in Muzaffarabad city and the

surrounding area.

ID Mass movement type

Length (m) Width (m) Area (km2) Volume (million m3)

1 Rock Fall 486 1,370 0.610 3.1

2 Rock Fall 416 455 0.162 0.108

3 Rock Fall 650 270 0.139 0.250

4 Rock Fall 110 800 0.127 0.044

5 Rock Fall 330 380 0.098 0.25

6 Rock Fall 625 200 0.092 0.125

7 Debris Fall 600 300 0.089 0.36

8 Debris Fall 300 360 0.087 0.054

9 Rock Fall 230 170 0.079 0.088

10 Debris Fall 248 290 0.077 0.06

11 Rock Fall 590 120 0.076 0.141

12 Rock Fall 306 265 0.071 0.42

13 Rock Fall 520 110 0.065 0.060

14 Debris Fall 160 260 0.060 0.041

15 Rock Fall 360 220 0.059 0.075

16 Rock Fall 392 160 0.058 0.156

17 Rock Fall 254 140 0.056 0.06

18 Rock Fall 288 210 0.053 0.102

19 Rock Fall 350 135 0.051 0.105

20 Rock Fall 436 160 0.049 0.12

21 Rock Fall 258 230 0.047 0.04

22 Debris Fall 364 140 0.044 0.069

23 Rock Fall 206 240 0.044 0.112

24 Debris Fall 300 165 0.043 0.024

25 Landslide 420 115 0.041 0.097

26 Debris Fall 270 170 0.041 0.036

27 Rock Fall 405 100 0.039 0.018

28 Rock Fall 446 80 0.037 0.12

29 Rock Fall 258 155 0.036 0.138

30 Rock Fall 366 100 0.034 0.044

31 Debris Fall 415 130 0.030 0.035

32 Rock Fall 330 85 0.029 0.072

33 Debris Fall 174 250 0.029 0.022

34 Rock Fall 168 100 0.023 0.066

35 Rock Fall 270 100 0.023 0.018

36 Debris Fall 190 130 0.023 0.036

37 Rock Fall 218 100 0.021 0.008

38 Debris Fall 332 90 0.018 0.018

39 Rock Fall 185 120 0.018 0.007

40 Debris Fall 200 130 0.018 0.013

41 Debris Fall 386 75 0.017 0.012

42 Rock Fall 282 105 0.017 0.03


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43 Rock Fall 470 30 0.016 0.007

44 Rock Fall 218 65 0.016 0.009

45 Rock Fall 160 110 0.016 0.012

46 Debris Fall 195 85 0.014 0.016

47 Debris Fall 200 85 0.013 0.009

48 Debris Fall 210 90 0.013 0.018

49 Debris Fall 294 40 0.011 0.014

50 Rock Fall 144 70 0.011 0.015

51 Debris Fall 200 70 0.011 0.007

52 Rock Fall 300 570 0.011 0.066

53 Debris Fall 350 30 0.010 0.008

54 Debris Fall 178 40 0.006 0.002

55 Debris Fall 230 25 0.005 0.002

56 Landslide 40 180 0.005 0.036

57 Rock Fall 110 55 0.004 0.002

58 Landslide 400 180 0.044 0.32

59 Debris Fall 330 780 0.069 0.01

60 Landslide 370 260 0.090 0.13

The clustering of the mass movements has occurred on specific geological units and in specific

geomorphological settings:

1. The primary region affected by the mass movements is the northern and northwestern part of

Muzaffarabad city, the mass movements occurred near the Muzaffarabad Fault, on carbonate

rocks, principally dolomites, dolomitic limestones, and limestones.

2. In the central part, the mass movements are found along the hanging wall block of

Muzaffarabad Fault on the steep slope of dolomitic limestones.

3. In southwestern part of Muzaffarbad city, the mass movements were found at Saman Bandi and

Lohargali areas along the Jhelum Fault and the Jhelum river respectively. In contrast, fewer mass

movements were triggered in the southern part of Muzaffarabad city.

In the northern and northwestern part of Muzaffarabad city (Fig. 5.12), the failures generally

occurred on the ridge exposed in the north and northwest direction, on very steep slopes, highly

sheared and fractured dolomitic-limestones. In addition, the mass movements denuded almost

entire slopes of the ridge, and the concentration of mass movements was very high as compared to

the other parts of the city (Figs. 5.3 and 5.9).


66

Fig. 5.12 Mass movement failures on the steeper slopes of carbonate rocks in the northern and

northwestern part of Muzaffarabad city.

Virtually, all the mass movements were shallow failures that involved the down slope movement

of talus material and of highly sheared and fractured hard rocks, caused by the strong ground

motion during the earthquake. The predominant modes of failures are rock falls and debris falls.

The geological formation associated with the mass movements in this area is the Cambrian

Muzaffarabad Formation. The Muzaffarabad Formation is composed of cherty and stromatolitic

dolomites with cherty white and grey bands, limestones and black shales. The mass movements

were concentrated near the Muzaffarabad Fault (Fig. 5.10). The dolomites of the Muzaffarabad

Formation along the Muzaffarabad Fault are deformed. All observed shallow mass movements

were generated during the earthquake.

In the central part of Muzaffarabad city the vast majority of mass movements are visible in the

dolomitic limestones of the Muzaffarabad Hills (Fig. 5.13). The mountains behind the

Muzaffarabad city are formed from Cambrian limestones and dolomites, whilst the more gentle

slopes in the front are formed mostly from colluvium (deposits of old mass movements and other

slope forming processes). The material exposed in the area is composed of predominantly talus,

big blocks of limestone breccia and in the lower parts of shales and highly fractured and sheared


67

sandstones of the Murree Formation. The average thickness of talus is less than 1 m. The

Muzaffarbad Fault is passing through the middle of the area (Figs. 5.10 and 5.11). The length of

the affected slope is almost 600 m and the width is 1400 m. The general angle of slope is up to 45

degrees. The slopes are dipping towards NW.

The bottom of the mass movements is marked by Muzaffarabad Fault, where the slope angle

decreases and the slopes are vegetated and inhabited. The mass movements were concentrated

along the shear zone of Muzaffarabad Fault. This brittle shear zone is 0.5 to 0.75 km wide (Baig,

2006).

Fig. 5.13 Shallow slope failures on the steep slope of Muzaffarabad Hills in dolomitic limestone.

Most of the activated material was the former talus cover.

In the southwestern part of Muzaffarbad city the mass movements were found (Fig. 5.10) as the

cluster at Lohargali area. In addition, a small scale landslide occurred along the Shahwi Katha,

along the Jhelum Fault (Fig. 5.10). Most of the mass movements in this area already existed before

the Kashmir earthquake 2005 and underwent a reactivation during the earthquake. These mass

movements occurred, in the Precambrian Hazara Formation. The Hazara Formation consists of


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slates, phyllites and shales with minor limestones and graphitic layers. The observed mass

movements include rock falls, debris falls and landslides.

Fig. 5.14 Mass movements in the southwest of Muzaffarabad city reactivated by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005.

5.5.2. Mass movements in Jhelum valley area

In the Jhelum valley area from Subri to Hattian Bala, mass movements were identified and

mapped using SPOT images and on ground based investigation along the hanging wall block of

the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and Jhelum river (Fig. 5.15). These mass movements occurred

due to the failures of the scarp faces and steep slopes consisting of weathered shales, claystones,

siltstones and fractured sandstones (Fig. 5.16). In addition, pre earthquake mass movements

located at Langarpura, and Kuroli were reactivated during the earthquake. Towards further east the

biggest mass movement associated with this earthquake, the Hattian Bala rock avalanche occurred

along the Muzaffarabad Fault (see detail in section 5.6.2). In addition, large numbers of shallow

mass movements were also found in this region. The mass movements include shallow rock falls

and debris falls on steep slopes along the hanging wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad

Fault, whereas few landslides also occurred at Bandi Karim Haider and Dhallah area. Many mass


69

movements were observed along the local streams and river terraces. In general, the mass

movements occurred in south and southwest facing direction and there was a slight trend that the

large mass movements occurred on vertically convex slopes rather than on concave slopes (Sato et

al., 2007).

Fig. 5.15 Mass movement distribution map of the Jhelum valley area.

The geological formations associated with these mass movements are the Miocene Murree

Formation and Quaternary sediments. In the Jhelum valley area the Muzaffarabad Fault runs

within the Murree Formation and Quaternary sediments. The Murree Formation is divided into a

lower and an upper part due to different lithology. It varies from undeformed competent beds to

tightly folded and highly fractured strata. Compressional forces are responsible for the occurrences


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of these joints. Joints are generally open, especially in sandstones with weathering surface. The

joint planes are smooth and slightly covered and filled with soft rock.

Fig. 5.16 Debris fall occurred in the red clay of the Miocene Murree Formation in Jhelum valley

area triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, additionally caused by undercutting of the slope

for road construction.

An inventory of 33 mass movements was prepared during field investigation in 2009-10, covering

an area of 320 km2 in the Jhelum valley area (Table 5.5). The mass movements initiated at an

elevation of about 860-2050 m. The smallest mass movement covering an area of 0.002 km2

located at Garhi Dopatta, while, the largest mass movement covering an area of 2.02 km2 is

located at Hattian Bala (Table 5.5). The distribution of length, width, area and volume is shown in

Table 5.5. For the examined mass movements the length vary between 70 m to 2350 m, with a

mean value of 280 m, and maximum width ranges between 30 m to 1,470 m, with a mean value of

190 m. The smallest volume of the mass movement is 0.002 million m3 while the largest mass

movement has volume of 98.0 million m3, estimated for the Hattian Bala rock avalanche (Table

5.5).


71

Table 5.5 Type, length, width, area and volume of mass movement distribution in Jhelum valley

area.



1 Rock Avalanche 2,350 1,470 2.02 98.0

2 Rock Fall 805 900 0.61 5.76

3 Debris Fall 160 340 0.40 0.05

4 Rock Fall 800 170 0.10 0.19

5 Rock Fall 248 370 0.064 0.12

6 Rock Fall 298 180 0.053 0.1

7 Debris Fall 400 110 0.040 0.032

8 Debris Fall 90 400 0.040 0.016

9 Landslide 130 200 0.023 0.023

10 Debris Fall 398 40 0.018 0.022

11 Debris Fall 175 250 0.017 0.05

12 Debris Fall 110 220 0.017 0.002

13 Debris Fall 162 110 0.015 0.05

14 Rock Fall 208 80 0.015 0.01

15 Rock Fall 166 110 0.014 0.005

16 Debris Fall 140 110 0.013 0.012

17 Landslide 95 160 0.013 0.02

18 Debris Fall 110 100 0.011 0.01

19 Rock Fall 232 60 0.011 0.002

20 Debris Fall 140 90 0.010 0.006

21 Debris Fall 180 60 0.009 0.003

22 Debris Fall 126 60 0.007 0.006

23 Debris Fall 86 85 0.008 0.008

24 Rock Fall 130 80 0.008 0.005

25 Rock Fall 130 50 0.007 0.006

26 Rock Fall 100 80 0.007 0.005

27 Rock Fall 76 60 0.006 0.007

28 Debris Fall 112 65 0.005 0.004

29 Debris Fall 100 65 0.005 0.004

30 Debris Fall 160 30 0.005 0.002

31 Debris Fall 75 60 0.004 0.007

32 Debris Fall 88 60 0.004 0.005

33 Debris Fall 70 30 0.002 0.002

5.5.3. Mass movements in Neelum valley area

The Neelum valley is V shaped, and situated in the northeast of Muzaffarabad city along the

Neelum river. It has rugged mountains having an average width of 15 km, with a slope range from

30-65 degrees. The epicenter of Kashmir earthquake 2005 was located at Devalian in the Neelum

valley, 18 km away from Muzaffarabad city. During the earthquake, the main road of Neelum


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valley was blocked more than one month due to the massive movements triggered by the

earthquake.

In the Neelum valley section from Gujju Saidan to Nauseri area, a large number of mass

movements were triggered by the earthquake, specifically along the Neelum river. The mass

movement concentration was very high close to the epicentral region (Fig. 5.17). Towards the

further northeast, many mass movements were found close to the MBT and PT. Due to the

remoteness of the area and the difficulty of traveling on very steep slopes, only the mass

movements along the roads and along the Neelum river were investigated for detailed mapping

(Fig. 5.17). The predominant types of mass movements were identified as rock falls and debris

falls.

Most of the mass movements have evidence of the main scarp, which is where the mass movement

originated, a path or channel moved downslope, but the depositional zone at the base of the steep

slope on the valley bottom has been transported during the seasonal water level.

The rock falls and debris falls were recorded along the high altitude mountain ridges in Neelum

valley area (Fig. 5.18). These steep rocky ridges are dipping towards the slope and are intensively

jointed due to high stress. The rapid and quick rock falls, and debris falls at various localities have

destroyed many houses and large number of fatalities has been reported.

The geological formations associated in these mass movements are the Murree, Panjal and Tanol

formations. The rocks of the Miocene Murree Formation in this region are predominantly steeply

dipping interbedded sandstones, siltstones and shales, which are vulnerable to the mass

movements. The Precambrian Tanol Formation consists of chlorite-quartz micaschists, chlorite-

biotite metaquartzites, garnet micaschists, graphitic schists and local marbles. The sequence is

intruded by early Cambrian granites. The rock sequence is multiply deformed and metamorphosed.

The rocks are jointed and fractured.


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Fig. 5.17 Mass movement distribution map of the Neelum valley area.

The Carboniferous-Triassic Panjal Formation includes basic metavolcanics, quartzofeldspathic

schists and graphitic schists. In an area near the MBT and PT, occur very closely to each other,

separated by metacarbonates, metasediments, quartzites and graphitic schists. The sequence along

MBT is highly fractured, jointed and sheared. These lithologies, brittle structures and steep slopes

controlled the mass movements locally along MBT during earthquake ground shaking. In this

region, particularly old mass movements were reactivated during the earthquake.

The inventory of 34 mass movements was prepared (Table 5.6) based on field work, covering an

area of 315 km2. The mass movements initiated at an elevation of about 860-1500 m. The smallest

mapped mass movement has an area of 0.004 km2, while, the largest mass movement is covering

an area of 0.39 km2 and is located in the Panjgran area close to the epicentral region. The

distribution of length, width, thickness, area and volume is shown in Table. 5.6. For the mass

movement examined the length varies between 120 m to 950 m, with a mean value of 270 m, and a

maximum width range between 40 m to 650 m, with a mean value of 132 m (Table 5.6). The


74

smallest volume of the mass movement is 0.002 million m3 while the largest mass movement has a

volume of 6.75 million m3, estimated for the Panjgran rock fall and slump (Table 5.6).

Fig. 5.18 A view of the Nauseri rock fall close to the MBT in the Neelum valley area.

Table 5.6 Type, length, width, area and volume of mass movement distribution in Neelum valley

area.



1 Slump and Rock Fall

950 650 0.390 6.75

2 Rock Fall 325 360 0.088 0.03

3 Rock Fall 266 240 0.083 0.108

4 Rock Fall 446 190 0.080 0.012

5 Rock Fall 570 140 0.075 0.08

6 Rock Fall 320 120 0.044 0.04

7 Debris Fall 382 125 0.044 0.018

8 Rock Fall 230 170 0.040 0.017

9 Debris Fall 406 100 0.036 0.10

10 Debris Fall 298 140 0.028 0.026

11 Debris Fall 196 170 0.028 0.011

12 Debris Fall 252 130 0.027 0.06


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13 Rock Fall 420 90 0.026 0.035

14 Debris Fall 150 120 0.026 0.01

15 Rock Fall 230 130 0.021 0.06

16 Rock Fall 254 110 0.021 0.003

17 Rock Fall 218 80 0.019 0.009

18 Rock Fall 180 120 0.016 0.012

19 Rock Fall 210 140 0.015 0.03

20 Rock Fall 136 120 0.015 0.014

21 Rock Fall 250 70 0.014 0.1

22 Rock Fall 162 120 0.014 0.028

23 Debris Fall 136 110 0.012 0.014

24 Debris Fall 137 100 0.011 0.007

25 Debris Fall 330 40 0.011 0.003

26 Debris Fall 175 80 0.010 0.007

27 Rock Fall 354 90 0.010 0.005

28 Rock Fall 202 50 0.008 0.012

29 Rock Fall 120 60 0.008 0.002

30 Debris Fall 198 50 0.007 0.009

31 Rock Fall 132 70 0.006 0.01

32 Rock Fall 126 80 0.006 0.04

33 Debris Fall 128 40 0.005 0.006

34 Debris Fall 124 90 0.004 0.003


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5.6. Mass movement case studies

This section describes significant mass movements such as the Hattian Bala rock avalanche,

Langarpura and Neelidandi rock falls, and Panjgran slump and rock fall associated with the

Kashmir earthquake 2005, in the northern part of Pakistan. The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and

Langarpura rock fall occurred in the southeast of Muzaffarabad and Neelidandi rock fall occurred

in the north of Muzaffarabad city along the hanging wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad

Fault (Fig. 5.19). However, Panjgran slump and rock fall occurred close to the epicentral region in

the northeast of Muzaffarabad. In this thesis, the following case studies were investigated and

documented during the field trip of October 2009 and September 2010. Furthermore, they were

analyzed and discussed in terms of distribution, behaviour and characteristics. Description

preferably includes the information about morphology, geometry, geology, structure and deposits

of individual mass movements. The locations of these mass movements are shown in Fig. 5.19.

Fig. 5.19 Map showing the locations of the case studies described in text. (map of Muzaffarabad

district digitized and modified after the map from Planning and Development department AJK,

2007).


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5.6.1. Previous studies

After the devastating earthquake, a large number of scientists investigated the area to identify and

characterize the mass movements and their impact in this region. The Hattian Bala rock avalanche

was investigated by Harp and Crone (2006), Dunning et al., (2007) and Schneider (2008). A

detailed geological and structural characterization of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche was not

discussed earlier. In this work, the relationship between geology and structure of the Hattian Bala

rock avalanche is analysed in the first time. Therefore, it was geologically and structurally

mapped. However, detailed geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and structural

characteristics of Langarpura and Neelidandi rock falls and Panjgran slump and rock fall are the

first documented examples of large scale mass movements after the Kashmir earthquake 2005 in

the NW Himalayan of Pakistan.

5.6.2. Hattian Bala rock avalanche

5.6.2.1. Introduction to the Hattian Bala rock avalanche case study

The Hattian Bala area is located in the southeast of Muzaffarabad, in the Jhelum valley area, near

the bank of the Jhelum river (Figs. 5.19 and 5.20). The Jhelum river flows from southeast to the

northwest parallel to the Muzaffarabad Fault and turns abrupt towards southward in Muzaffarabad

city. The area of Hattian Bala is generally hilly and mountainous. Most of the area is highly eroded

and characterized by deeply cut ravines and undulating hilly terrains.

Hattian Bala rock avalanche is the largest mass movement associated by the Kashmir earthquake

2005, having a volume of about 98 million cubic meters. It lies on the hanging wall block of the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. It occurred approximately 32 km southeast of Muzaffarabad in a

tributary of the Jhelum river on Danna Hill, close to the town of Hattian (Figs. 5.19 and 5.20). The

massive catastrophic event caused the death of 575 people. It destroyed five villages and more

than 3000 people became homeless (official sources). The mass movement moved in southeastern

direction, created two natural dams on the valley bottom and blocked the water ways of the Karli

and Tung tributaries of the Jhelum river and formed two landslides dammed lakes. The reservoir

of Karli lake reached full capacity of 62 million m3 in April 2007 (Kazuo et al., 2009). In February

2010, Karli dam was overflown due to heavy rain. The overflow resulted in an outburst flood to

the downstream in Hattian town and Muzaffarabad. The flood left one person dead, swept away 50

houses and damaged the Jhelum valley road. The lake was decreased to roughly one third of its

original size.


78

Previous studies of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche showed, that it was an old rockslide which was

reactivated by the 8th October 2005 earthquake and transformed into a rock avalanche. Dunning et

al. (2007) classified it as rock avalanche according to the classification system of Heim (1932) and

Varnes (1978).

Fig. 5.20 SPOT-5 image of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche. Outline shows the boundary of the

mass movement and blockage of the Karli and Tung tributaries of the Jhelum river.

5.6.2.2. Geological setting of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche

The Hattian Bala area is broadly situated in the eastern limb of HKS. The active fault along the

eastern limb of HKS in the study area is the Muzaffarabad Fault which is the important active

tectonic feature in the HKS (Baig, 2006). The HKS is built up of Precambrian to Tertiary rocks

which are imbricated and folded (Wadia, 1931; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Bossart et al., 1988;

Greco, 1991). The core of the syntaxis consists of red beds of sandstones, mudstones, shales and

claystones of Miocene age belonging to the Murree Formation (Calkins et al., 1975).

The detailed geological features of the Hattian Bala area have been studied from the GSP and are

summarized in a geological map (GSP, 2008; Fig. 5.21). In the southeast of Muzaffarabad, from

Muzaffarabad city to Hattian Bala area, the Muzaffarabad Fault runs entirely within the Murree


79

Formation and the Kamlial Formation or the Quaternary sediments. In general, the area is

composed of Miocene to Quaternary strata. The Miocene layers trend SE-NW with several small

anticlines and synclines. The Miocene layers are mainly composed of interbedded sandstones,

siltstones with shales and claystones. The Quaternary layers consist of alluvial talus and terrace

deposits. The rock sequence shown in Fig. 5.21 includes the early Miocene of Murree Formation,

the late Miocene of Kamlial Formation and Quaternary sediments. As seen in the Fig. 5.21, the

Murree Formation is overlain by the Kamlial Formation in the northeast and southeast of the

Hattian Bala area. It mainly consists of hard, fine grained interbedded sandstones, siltstones with

shales and claystones. The Kamlial Formation lies in the northwest and southwest of the area

which is mainly composed of shales, sandstones with minor siltstone and claystones. In addition,

the Quaternary alluvium is present throughout the Hattian Bala area and overlies the bed rock of

the Miocene strata.

.

Fig. 5.21 Geological map of the Hattian Bala and surrounding area (compiled and modified after

GSP, 2008).

The Hattian Bala rock avalanche lies about 2 km northeast of the Muzaffarabad Fault trace (Fig.

5.19). The slope of Hattian Bala rock avalanche is composed of the lower Murree Formation. The


80

lower Murree Formation consists of hard, fine grained interbedded sandstones, siltstones with

shales and claystones. Furthermore, the rocks are highly sheared and fractured because the area

lies on the hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault zone. The hanging wall block of the

Muzaffarabad Fault contains steep slopes in highly fractured and sheared rock that is highly

susceptible to failure during seismic shaking. The strong motion of the earthquake instantaneously

weakened the brittle shear surface of the detachment zone of Hattian Bala rock avalanche and

caused the coseismic gravity collapse. According to Jibson et al., (2006), the failure in brittle rock

is most sensitive to high accelerations of ground motion.

5.6.2.3. Structural setting of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche

The Hattian Bala rock avalanche is a deep seated earthquake induced mass movement favored by

structurally controlled southeast plunging syncline known as Danna syncline (Fig. 5.22). However,

it also followed the bedding parallel slip and pre-existing synclinal morphology (Figs. 5.23a and

5.23b). The Danna syncline is formed by the folding of the Early Miocene lower Murree

Formation, which is mainly composed of interbedded sandstones, siltstones with shales and

claystones. The siltstones and claystones dominate the sandstones. The northeastern limb of Danna

syncline dips southwest whereas the southwestern limb dips northeast. The strike along the

northeastern limb of the Danna syncline varies from N44ºW to N80ºW while the strike along the

southwestern limb varies from N14ºW to N80ºW (Table 5.7). The dip of the northeastern limb

varies from 35ºSW to 75ºSW whereas the dip of the southwestern limb ranges from 30º NE to

68ºNE. The northeastern limb of the syncline is further folded by the small Dandbeh synclinal and

anticlinal structures plunging southeast (Fig. 5.22). Trend and plunge of the Danna syncline is

22º/120º, 6º/131º, 25º/118º, 12º/104º and 20º/074º. The attitude of the axial plane of the syncline is

N55ºW/80ºNE, N52ºW/90ºNE, N48ºW/86ºNE and N72ºW/56ºNE (Table 5.7).

Table 5.7 Structural data of Danna syncline, Hattian Bala rock avalanche.

Northeastern Limb Southwestern Limb Fold Axis Axial Plane

N70ºW/60ºSW N14ºW/32ºNE 22º/120º N55ºW/80ºNE



N80ºW/72ºSW N55ºW/30ºNE 12º/104° N72ºW/56ºNE

N80ºW/75ºSW N80ºW/68ºNE 20º/074° N73ºW/90ºNE


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Fig. 5.22 Structural map showing the southeast plunging synclinal structural failure of Hattian

Bala rock avalanche.

The Danna and Dandbeh synclines are an open, southwest vergent and southeast plunging F1

Himalayan fold. The axial plane of the Danna syncline is northeast dipping which is parallel to the

northeast dipping Muzaffarabad Fault. Muzaffarabad Fault and Danna syncline are pre-earthquake

Himalayan structures. These structures were used for failure during the October 8th 2005

earthquake.


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Fig. 5.23 Geotechnical cross profiles (5.23a, 5.23b) showing the pre-earthquake and post-

earthquake situation. Note: the rock avalanche perfectly follows the pre-existing structure of the

Danna and Dandbeh synclines. The third profile (5.23c) is showing the maximum deposit

thickness of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche.

5.6.2.4. Description of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche

The preliminary investigation indicates that the Hattian Bala rock avalanche moved southeast from

Danna Hill (34°08′32′′ N; 73°42′44′′ E, altitude 2,038 m asl), in the Hattian Bala area. As seen in

Fig. 5.24, the mass movement moved from an elevation of about 2,038 m asl and traveled the

distance of ~2.5 km. The mass movement blocked the Karli river at an elevation of 1,307 m asl


83

and rose up the other side of the valley at an elevation of 1,400 m asl, forming the Karli dam with

an average length and width of 1,700 m and 400 m respectively. It varies in depth from 150 to 200

m (Figs. 5.24, 5.26 and 5.27).

The Hattian Bala rock avalanche is mainly composed of sandstones, siltstones, shales and

claystones of Miocene Murree Formation. Most of the rock avalanche material was deposited at

the toe, where it formed a huge embankment around the confluence of Karli and Tung rivers. A

nearly planar sliding surface was exposed parallel to the intersection of the bedding surfaces.

Detailed geotechnical and structural maps as well as one longitudinal and three cross profiles (Figs.

5.22, 5.23, 5.27 and 5.28) of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche were prepared to describe the

initiation mechanism and the geological and structural characterization of the Hattian Bala rock

avalanche.

Fig. 5.24 View of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche structurally controlled by southeast plunging

Danna syncline. Photo facing northwest.

The crest of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche is highly cracked (Fig. 5.25). The length of these

cracks is 50-60 m and their width can reach up to 2 m. The northeast to southwest extensional

cracks on the crown of the mass movement are associated with the ground shaking and extensional


84

forces parallel to the steep main scarp of the mass movement. In the northwestern part of the main

scarp, cracks mostly parallel to the scarp are also present (Fig. 5.27).

Fig. 5.25 Multiple extensional ground cracks oriented northeast-southwest on the crown of the

Hattian Bala rock avalanche. Photo facing northwest.

The source area of Hattian Bala rock avalanche is composed of shales, siltstones, sandstones and

claystones. Whereas, the source of the mass movement, which is initiated at an elevation of 2,038

m asl (Fig. 5.24) and moved in southeastern direction towards the Karli river. The rock face of the

top area is inclined to nearly vertical. Multiple joint surfaces both parallel and perpendicular to the

slope face were exposed at the mass movement source area.

The geometry of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche shows that the old rockslide (Fig. 5.26) was

favored to form a large scale rock avalanche during the earthquake. The Hattian Bala rock

avalanche is up to 1,470 m wide, 2,350 m long, and 60 m deep in an average (Table 5.8).

The height distance from top to toe is approximately 700 m (Table 5.8). Due to the remoteness and

lack of resources no borehole data was available. In order to estimate the average depth of the rock

avalanche deposit, we used pre-earthquake contour lines derived from SRTM based DEM and

constructed longitudinal and cross profiles in the field. The position of the shear surface was


85

estimated with these profiles and the knowledge of the structure of the syncline. The average

thickness of the mass movement deposit was estimated to be approximately 60 meters. Total

volume of the mass movement material was estimated to be about 98 million cubic meters by

multiplying the deposit area with the average thickness (Table 5.8).

Fig. 5.26 Map of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche from 2005. Note: situation of old rock slide and

its position is derived from Schneider (2008).

The mobility of the mass movement is estimated according to the H/L parameters (Fig. 5.28),

which represent the relationship between the height of fall and maximum travel distance, also

called apparent coefficient of friction or Fahrböschung angle (Heim 1932). The Fahrböschung

angle of the rock avalanche is measured as 17º and maximum travel distance is 2,350 m (Table

5.8). The shear surface followed the bedding parallel slip along siltstone, claystone and sandstone

surfaces (Figs. 5.27 and 5.28). The mass movement trajectory from scarp to toe is 2350 m long

(profile A-A′ in Fig. 5.28). The rock avalanche material traveled 400-500 meters beyond the Karli


86

valley and also buried many structures along the Karli river. The geological longitudinal and cross

profiles (Figs. 5.23 and 5.28) show the relation between rock type, position of the initial rock slide,

slide plane and the thickness of the different of the rock avalanche.

Table 5.8 Geometric characteristics of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005 in northern Pakistan.

Crown

Elevation

(m)

Toe

Elevation

(m)

Height

(m)

Maximum

length

(m)

Maximum

width

(m)

Fahrböschun

g angle

Surfac

e area

(km2)

Deposi

t area

(km2)

Average

thickness

(m)

Volume

(*106m³)

2038 1,307 700

2,350 1,470 17º 2.02 1.64 60 98.4

Fig. 5.27 Geotechnical map of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche and the locations of geological

longitudinal and geotechnical cross profiles. Frequent GPS measurements were performed during

field work to mapped the geotechnical details.


87

The Hattian Bala rock avalanche deposit is composed of debris from sandstone, siltstone,

claystone, shale and mudstone of the lower Murree Formation. The total deposit area was

calculated to be about 1.64 km2 (Table 5.8). The material exposed on the surface of the mass

movement deposit comprises mainly of angular rock fragments having fairly uniform distribution

of particle size ranging from large boulders (1-10 m3) to silty and clayey particles (Fig. 5.23c). The

lower part of the deposits along the artificial spillway consists mainly of blocks of fine grained

sandstones spanning a wide range of sizes, some individual blocks measured more than 5 m2 on a

side (Fig. 5.28).

Fig. 5.28 Longitudinal geotechnical NW-SE profile showing pre-earthquake landscape and the

geotechnical situation after the rock avalanche. Note: the mass movement is parallel to the

southeast orientated synclinal plunge direction and the slip surface follows in many parts the dip

direction of the bedding. The mass movement abuts and accumulates against the right steep wall

of the former Karli valley.

The thickness of the toe area generally ranges between 150-200 m. It is thinner near the Karli river

and thicker in southeast direction along the Tung river. The mass movement deposit in the valley

bottom has an irregular surface. It has ridges and depressions of several meters amplitude that

reflect the flowage of the mass. These ridges and depressions make the surface of the deposit

highly irregular.


88

Fig. 5.29 The deposit of the Hattian Bala rock avalanche is mainly composed of angular rock

fragments.

5.6.3. Langarpura rock fall

5.6.3.1. Introduction to the Langarpura rock fall case study

Langarpura is a small village, located 12 km southeast of Muzaffarabad, near the bank of the

Jhelum river in the Jhelum valley area (Fig. 5.19). Generally, the relief of the area is gentle at the

terraces and steep behind mountain of Langarpura in the northeast. The terrace materials have been

transported by the Jhelum river and include a huge amount of boulders, pebbles and cobbles. They

are deposited tightly at the right bank of the river. Several mass movements occurred along the

right bank of the Jhelum river on the steep slopes along the hanging wall block of the

Muzaffarabad Fault. These mass movements are small and shallow slope failures, however, the

large scale mass movement such as Langarpura rock fall was identified on the hanging wall block

of the Muzaffarabad Fault during the field trip of October 2009 and September 2010 (Fig. 5.30).

At present the mass movement is classified as rock fall according to classification of Varnes

(1978). The volume of the rock fall is estimated to be about 5.76 million m3. The Langarpura rock


89

fall caused neither loss of life nor widespread destruction of property, as it occurred in a remote

area. However, it destroyed a local link road connected from Langarpura to Garhi Dopatta town.

Fig. 5.30 SPOT-5 image of Langarpura rock fall in the Jhelum valley area. The red line shows the

location of Muzaffarabad Fault passing through this area. Outline shows the boundary of the mass

movement.

5.6.3.2. Geological setting of the Langarpura rock fall

The Langarpura area lies on the hanging wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault, in the

HKS (Figs. 5.19, 5.30 and 5.31). The area is imbricated and folded. The active Muzaffarabad Fault

is the major fault run in the area. The rocks of the area are intensely deformed due to Himalayan

orogeny. The Muzaffarabad Fault runs entirely within the Murree Formation (which is divided into

lower and upper part based on lithological characteristics) and Quaternary sediments in this area.

The lower Murree Formation in the hanging wall block has been thrusted on the upper Murree

Formation along Muzaffarabad Fault and at places buried the trace of the fault due to the

occurrence of the mass movement (Fig. 5.31). The lower Murree Formation consists of

predominant red shales, siltstones, claystones and subordinate sandstones. However, the upper

Murree Formation includes dominantly coarser sandstones and subordinate shales and claystones.

The terraces present in Langarpura, Bandi Tagian and Kuroli areas are the alluvium deposits of

Jhelum river (Fig. 5.30).


90

Fig. 5.31 The escarpment failure of the Langarpura rock fall on the hanging wall block (HWB) of

the Muzaffarabad Fault. Note: The significant topographic front formed by the hanging wall block

of the Muzaffarabad Fault. The foot wall block (FWB) has been eroded by river undercutting

before the reactivation of Langarpura rock fall. Photo looking northeast.

5.6.3.3. Description of the Langarpura rock fall

The Langarpura rock fall occurred in the southeast of Muzaffarabad along the hanging wall block

of the Muzaffarabad Fault in the Jhelum valley (Figs. 5.30 and 5.31). The Langarpura rock fall

was reactivated during Kashmir earthquake 2005 in southwest Himalayan thrust direction. The

slope failure is associated with the escarpment failure due to earthquake ground shaking, steep

scarp slope and hanging wall collapse. The lower Murree Formation rocks being soft can easily

slide during earthquake ground shaking. However, monsoon rains and seepages and springs play

role for the sliding of shales, claystones and siltstones of the lower Murree Formation. The detailed

geotechnical map and geological longitudinal profile of Langarpura rock fall were prepared on the

basis of field investigation to understand the process of rock fall initiation (Figs. 5.32 and 5.33).

The Langarpura rock fall has a composite scarp which dips 60-70 degree southwest (Figs. 5.32 and

5.33). Extensional cracks are present along the crest of the scarp (Fig. 5.32). The scarp surfaces are

interconnected by gravitational cracks. The southwest escarpment failure is opposite to the


91

northeast dipping hanging wall strata of the lower Murree Formation (Figs. 5.32 and 5.33). The

escarpment failure occurred in the southwest direction. The pre-earthquake scarp has been

reactivated along the steep scarp surfaces. The presence of springs, seepages and weathered

claystone material in the middle and upper parts of the scarp helped to initiate escarpment failure.

The source area of Langarpura rock fall is composed of interbedded sandstones, siltstones with

shales and claystones of lower Murree Formation. The lower Murree Formation shows brittle

deformation in shear zones. The source of the mass movement initiated at an elevation of 1250 m

asl at crown and moved in the southwest direction towards the Jhelum river. The Muzaffarabad

Fault is passing through overburden deposits in the center of the mass movement. The rock fall

overburden deposit buried the northeast dipping brittle shear zone of the fault (Fig. 5.31). Where,

fault has developed numerous cracks and fractures.

The geomorphological and geometrical features indicate that it was an old rock fall scarp which

was reactivated during the earthquake 2005. Total surface area of Langarpura rock fall is

calculated 0.61 km2, whereas, the deposit area is about 0.48 km2 (Table 5.9). The rock fall has

about 800 m length, a maximum width of 900 m and an estimated average depth of about 12 m.

The top of the head scarp is at about 1250 m asl. and stripped at the height of 460 m. The

Fahrböschung angle of the mass movement is measured as 30º. The volume of the mass movement

is estimated about 5.76 million m3 (Table 5.9).

Table 5.9 Geometric characteristics of the Langarpura rock fall triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005.

Location

Name

Type Crown

elevation (m)

Length

(m)

Maximum

Width (m)

Estimated

depth (m)

Height

(m)

Fahrböschung

angle

Total

surface area (m2)

Deposit

area (m2)

Estimated

volume (106 m3)

Langarpura Rock Fall

1,250 800 900 12 460 30º 610,000 480,000 5.76


92

Fig. 5.32 The geotechnical map of the Langarpura rock fall and the location of the geological

longitudinal profile shown in Fig. 5.33.

The rock fall body is made up of fragmented rocks, alluvium and alluvial fan material. Parts of the

rock fall material are transported during heavy rain fall to the Jhelum river by local streams (Fig.

5.32). The Jhelum river has eroded the foot wall block before the reactivation of Langarpura rock

fall. The rock fall material is exposed at the toe of the rock fall. The rock is disintegrated into rock

blocks and boulders accumulated near the Jhelum river. In addition, rock blocks in a silty and

clayey material were also present at the toe. The Jhelum river reduces the rock fall material at the


93

toe through side erosion during seasonal water level raise during heavy rain fall or seasonal

monsoon.

These deposits include boulders, cobbles and pebbles of Panjal volcanics, siwaliks, quartzites and

sandstones embedded in sand, silt and clay matrix. The alluvial fans in these areas include angular

to sub-angular fragments of sandstones and siltstones of the Murree Formation in clayey and silty

matrix.

Fig. 5.33 Geological longitudinal profile of the Langarpura rock fall. Location of the profile is

shown in Fig. 5.32.

5.6.4. Neelidandi rock fall

5.6.4.1. Introduction to the Neelidandi rock fall case study

The Neelidandi rock fall is located in the north of Muzaffarabad city, capital state of AJK (Fig.

5.19). The Muzaffarabad city was badly damaged due to the earthquake 2005 and number of mass

movements took place in Muzaffarabad city coming down from the steep slopes, particularly in the

north of Muzaffarabad. The topography of the area around these mass movements is complicated

by the presence of the fault and surface uplift of the hanging wall block. It occurred in the

upstream of Neelum river near Muzaffarabad (Figs. 5.34 and 5.35). This catastrophic mass


94

movement was reactivated during the earthquake and destroyed many houses and blocked the

Neelum river for 5 hours. In addition, the mass movement developed numerous fractures and

cracks in the eastern and southwestern side. The mass movement was mapped geologically and

structurally on scale of 1:10,000 during the field trip of October 2009 and September 2010 (Fig.

5.37). The geological longitudinal profile was prepared to characterize the post-earthquake

topography and the initial geological situation.

Fig. 5.34 SPOT-5 image of Neelidandi rock fall in north of Muzaffarabad city. The rock fall

blocked the Neelum river for 5 hours immediately after the earthquake. Outline shows the

boundary of the mass movement.

5.6.4.2. Geological setting of the Neelidandi rock fall

Muzaffarabad city lies in the HKS in the NW Himalayan of Pakistan. The Jhelum Fault and

Muzaffarabad Fault lies on the western limb of HKS, and are the major tectonic features of the

area. The Muzaffarabad Fault runs northwest-southeast from Balakot to Bagh area (Fig. 5.19). The

hanging wall block of the fault was deformed into the active hanging wall anticline (Baig et al.,

2008). It is deformed and folded due to compression combined with uplifting. In Muzaffarabad


95

city, the active Muzaffarabad Fault thrusted the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation over the

Miocene Murree Formation. Whereas, the Jhelum Fault emplaces the Precambrian Hazara

Formation over the Miocene Murree Formation (Baig and Lawrence, 1987). The Muzaffarabad

Formation includes cherty dolomites, white and gray cherty bands, stromatolitic cherty dolomites,

black limestones and shales (Baig and Snee, 1995), whereas, the Murree Formation contains

interbedded sandstones, siltstones with shales and claystones. The Neelidandi rock fall lies in the

hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault (Figs. 5.37 and 5.38). The ruptures and mass

movements on the hanging wall block are associated with the northwest trending and northeast

dipping Muzaffarabad Fault. The active uplift and strong ground shaking along Muzaffarabad

Fault caused the total collapse of houses and triggered Neelidandi rock fall in the north of

Muzaffarabad (Fig. 5.38).

5.6.4.3. Description of the Neelidandi rock fall

Neelidandi rock fall occurred on an undercut slope of Neelum river. The undercutting had caused

numerous rock falls in former times. The new rock fall has been reactivated during the Kashmir

earthquake 2005. It has blocked the river Neelum and formed the check dam. After some time the

dam was broken and water flew downstream in the river. The detailed geotechnical map and

geological longitudinal profile (Figs. 5.37 and 5.39) have been prepared to understand the process

of mass movement mechanism and initiation

The very large scarp can be observed in Figs. 5.35 and 5.37. The scarp area of Neelidandi rock fall

is concave and very steep (Fig. 5.35). The rock fall occurred on a steep scarp plane dipping 60-70

degree northwest. Scarp failure followed the northwest-southeast extension perpendicular to active

northeast-southwest Himalayan tectonic compression.

The scarp is mainly composed of highly sheared and crushed cherty dolomites and limestones. The

slope failure along the scarp occurred due to earthquake ground shaking prepared by river

undercutting in highly fractured rocks. The multiple joints and fracture surfaces are sub parallel

and orthogonal to the slope face. On the back side of the scarp crest, semicircular and parallel to

scarp tension cracks are developed (Figs. 5.36 and 5.37).


96

Fig. 5.35 The very steep scarp of Neelidandi rock fall in the hanging wall block of Muzaffarabad

Fault (MF). The scarp is formed in the highly sheared cherty dolomite of Muzaffarabad Formation.

The Muzaffarabad Formation lies in the hanging wall block and Murree Formation in the foot wall

block. Photo looking southeast.

The tension cracks are up to 2 m wide. The crest of scarp has extensional cracks dipping 60-70

degrees towards the northwest dipping main scarp of the rock fall. The tension crack zone along

the crest of the scarp varies in width from 50-100 m. This tension crack zone can fail by future

triggering events like earthquakes or extreme monsoon rains.


97

Fig. 5.36 Northwest dipping and oblique tension cracks on the crown of the Neelidandi rock fall.

The cracks are formed due to earthquake ground shaking and stress release behind the new steep

scarp. These cracks can cause a collapse of material behind the scarp during monsoon rains and

earthquake shocks. Photo looking northeast.

Slopes above the main scarp in the northeast direction are steep, rising into forest with small

farms, many of them have been destroyed. Agricultural terraces have been constructed around

some of these cleared areas. The edge just above the main scarp is broken by a number of arcuate

fissures and small scarps. However, these do not appear to be as extensive as at other sites but

restricted to defining areas of the present scarp which will fail by retrogression of the unstable cliff

face. There are also a number of fissures along the interfluves area directed to both tributary

valleys to the east of the main scarp, reflecting potential failure of these slopes.

The source rock of the mass movement is sheared cherty dolomite-limestone of Muzaffarabad

Formation. The main scarp reached an elevation of 1100 m asl. The escarpment height was 355 m

(Table 5.10). Almost no material remained in the source area.


98

Total surface area of the Neelidandi rock fall is calculated about 0.61 km2, whereas, rock fall

deposit has an area of 0.20 km2. The length of the rock fall is 480 m. It has a maximum width of

1,370 m. The average estimated thickness is 15 m (Table 5.10).

The estimated volume of the rock fall is about 3.1 million m3, calculated by multiplying the

deposit area with the average thickness. The relationship between the height of fall and maximum

travel distance, also called apparent coefficient of friction (Heim, 1932). The Fahrböschung angle

of Neelidandi rock fall measured directly in field is 36º, whereas, the rock fall travel the distance

of 480 m.

Fig. 5.37 Geotechnical map of the Neelidandi rock fall and the location of the geological



99

Table 5.10 Geometric characteristics of the Neelidandi rock fall triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005.

Location Type Crown

elevation

(m)

Length

(m)

Maximum

width (m)

Estimated

depth (m)

Height

(m)

Fahrböschung

angle

Total

surface

area (m2)

Deposit

area (m2)

Estimated

volume

(106 m3)

Neelidandi Rock fall

1,100 480 1,370 15 355 36º 610,000 207,000 3.1

Fig. 5.38 The hanging wall block of Muzaffarabad Fault is deformed into active hanging wall

anticline (Baig et al., 2008). Note total destruction of houses (Earthquake intensity XI) is due to

strong earthquake ground shaking along Muzaffarabad Fault. Photo looking northeast.

After the main mass movement, the slope of the ridge was highly fractured and unstable that rock

fall continued to occur. The rock fall body includes the rock material of cherty dolomite-limestone.

The rock unit is highly sheared and crushed forming breccia zone varying in width from 500-1000

m. The geological longitudinal profile (Fig. 5.39) shows the relation between the initiation of rock

fall with respect to lithology and structure. The geological and structural parameters (Fig. 5.37)


100

show that the earthquake strong ground motion (Intensity XI; Fig. 5.37) weaken the brittle shear

zone in the hanging wall of Muzaffarabad fault and caused the collapse of the Neelidandi rock fall.

The rock mass is composed of cherty dolomite and limestone rocks of the Muzaffarabad

Formation. The rock fall material forms the active cone at the toe of the rock deposit. The size of

the deposit material in scale is less than 1 m3, although occasionally rocks with more than 1 m3

across can be seen. The 15-20 m thick rock fall mass has been significantly eroded by the Neelum

river during heavy monsoon rains and rising of seasonal river water level. The only small part of

the rock fall body forms the cone at the toe.

Fig. 5.39 Geological longitudinal profile of the Neelidandi rock fall. Location of the profile is

shown in Fig. 5.37.


101

5.6.5. Panjgran slump and rock fall

5.6.5.1. Introduction to the Panjgran slump and rock fall case study

The Panjgran village lies in the Neelum valley area, in the northeast of Muzaffarabad city, where

the Neelum river flows from northeast to southwest (Fig. 5.19). The epicenter of Kashmir

earthquake 2005 was located about 8 km northwest of this village. The area is characterized by

rugged topography, very high relief, and very steep slopes. The topography is prone to the mass

movement due to its unstable conditions of the rock masses. This instability has caused failure on

many mass movements before and during the earthquake in this region. The topographic elevation

changes from 850 m at the Neelum river to 1450 m at the top ridge (Fig. 5.40), where the Panjgran

slump and rock fall was reactivated during the earthquake 2005. The mass movement blocked the

main Neelum valley road for many days. Nearly, 300-400 m road were totally destroyed due to the

reactivation of the slump material at the base. However, no causality or damages of houses was

reported during the reactivation of this mass movement

5.6.5.2. Geological setting of the Panjgran slump and rock fall

Geologically, the area is situated close to the MBT and PT (Fig. 5.19). The Panjal Formation lies

between the MBT and PT. Along the MBT the Panjal Formation has been thrusted over the

Murree Formation (Khan, 1994). The sequence of rocks along the MBT is highly fractured, jointed

and sheared. The lower contact of the Panjal Formation is faulted and upper contact is the MBT

with the Murree Formation (Khan, 1994). The large area of Neelum valley is covered with the

Murree Formation. The main part of the Murree Formation is exposed along the right and left bank

of the Neelum river. The brittle structure of the rocks and the steep undercut slope controlled the

triggering of the mass movement near MBT during earthquake. However, most of the mass

movements were occurred in this area due to the debris cover. The Panjgran slump and rock fall is

made up of the Miocene Murree Formation consisting of interbedded sandstones, siltstones with

shales and claystones. The shales and claystones are predominant; whereas sheared sandstones are

subordinate. Slope of the mass movement dips in opposite direction to the dip direction of bed

rock.


102

Fig. 5.40 SPOT-5 image showing the location and boundary of the Panjgran slump and rock fall

occurred in the northeast of Muzaffarabad, in the Neelum valley area. Outline shows the boundary

of the mass movement.

5.6.3.4. Description of the Panjgran slump and rock fall

The Panjgran slump and rock fall is located 36 km away in the northeast of Muzaffarabad city,

close to the epicenter of Kashmir earthquake 2005, in the Neelum valley area (Figs. 5.19 and

5.40). It is a major ancient mass movement which was reactivated during the Kashmir earthquake

2005. The mass movement occurred on Panjkot ridge (34° 25′ 47′′ N; 73° 37′ 12′′ E, altitude 1,450

m asl) and moved in northeast direction towards the Neelum river (Fig. 5.41). Prior to the

triggering of the mass movement during the earthquake, the Neelum river had frequently undercut

and oversteepened the slope. This reduced the overall stability of the slope on hill side.

The slope failure is associated with the escarpment failure (Fig. 5.41). Beside the material and

slope steepness the under construction of main Neelum road at the base of the mass movement was

the major driving force for this escarpment failure. The mass movement was mapped on scale of 1:

10,000 during the field trip for this study. Detailed geotechnical map and geological longitudinal

profile was prepared to understand the mechanism and initiation process of the mass movement

(Figs. 5.42 and 5.43).


103

The crown of the mass movement above the main scarp is steep, with small agricultural farms.

Residential houses and agriculture terraces have been constructed around the scarp and crest of the

mass movement and thick forest is present in the northeast side of the scarp. The cracks parallel to

the scarp are appeared in the western part of the mass movements (Fig. 5.41). They are 1 to 5 m

long, 8-12 cm wide, and nearly less than 1 m in deep. The scarp of the mass movement is

composed of fractured sandstones, siltstones, shales and claystones of Miocene Murree Formation

(Fig. 5.42). The height of the scarp varies from 30 m in the western part of the scarp to 200 m at

the top of the Panjkot ridge. The shape of the scarp is circular and it dips into the hill side towards

the Neelum river.

Fig. 5.41 An overview of the Panjgran slump and rock fall which occurred close to the epicentral

region of the Kashmir earthquake 2005. Note: the position on an undercut slope of Neelum river.

Fig. 5.42 shows the geometry of the Panjgran slump and rock fall. Total surface area of the mass

movement is calculated 0.39 km2 (Table 5.11). The mass movement initiated at an elevation of

1450 m asl at the top of the ridge and stripped at the height of 600 m. The mass movement has

about 950 m length and a maximum width 650 m. The estimated average depth is 25 m. The

volume of the mass movement is roughly estimated about 6.75 million m3. The Fahrböschung

angle is measured about 35º (Table 5.11).


104

Table 5.11 Geometric characteristics of the Panjgran slump and rock fall triggered by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005.

Location

Name

Type Crown

elevation

(m)

Length

(m)

Maximum

Width (m)

Estimated

depth (m)

Height

(m)

Fahrböschung

angle

Total

surface

area (m2)

Deposit

area (m2)

Estimated

volume

(106 m3)

Panjgran Slump and rock fall

1,450 950 650 25 600 35º 390,000 278,000 6.75

Fig. 5.42 Geotechnical map of the Panjgran slump and rock fall and the location of the geological



105

It is a rotational mass movement on northeast facing slope in which strata dip opposite to the hill

side. The initial slope movement involved the slumping in weathered, jointed shale and sandstone

at the foot of the mass movement. On the higher part of the mass movement the scarp face is

exposed where rock fall material detached from the bed rock and moved down slope. At the foot

of the scarp the old slump mass is present which extends the full width of the mass movement. The

slump is characterized by the rotational movement and is mostly covered by the rock debris,

derived from the rock fall that triggered during the earthquake. The lower part of the slump, below

the main road is characterized by steep slope with slope angle of upto 50º (Fig. 5.42).

The Panjgran slump and rock fall deposit has an area of 0.278 km2 including slump and rock fall

material (Table 5.11). The surface of the deposit comprises sandstones, siltstones, shales and

mudstones. The size ranges from sand to large boulder with many very angular blocks >1 m in

diameter. The material at the toe of the mass movement was transported by the Neelum river

during seasonal water level rises.

Fig. 5.43 Geological longitudinal profile of Panjgran slump and rock fall. Location of the profile is

shown in Fig. 5.42.


106

5.6.6. Conclusions based on the case histories

The Hattian Bala and other three large scale mass movements show that lithology, structure and

geometry are three important factors contributing to trigger these mass movements during the

Kashmir earthquake 2005. Geometry and failure mode of Hattian Bala rock avalanche was

strongly controlled by tectonics and lithology, bedding parallel slip and southeast plunging

synclinal structures, and the pre-existing rock slide are the main features. The various aspect of the

Hattian Bala rock avalanche were analyzed as follows: The reactivation of Hattian Bala rock slide

on the hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad fault was the result of the ground shaking,

structural failure, hanging wall collapse and escarpment failure. The Danna and Dandbeh synclines

were formed by the Himalayan F1 folding of the Murree Formation. Claystones, siltstones and

subordinate sandstones of the lower Murree Formation are prone to mass movements due to

inclined layering. The Danna and Dandbeh southeast plunging synclinal structural failure followed

the bedding parallel slip along the bedding planes of claystones, mudstones and sandstones. In

general, earthquake deformation contributed in a co-seismic gravity collapse of the Hattian Bala

mass movement.

The study of Langarpura, Neelidandi rock falls and Panjgran slump and rock fall are the first

documented examples of reactivated large scale mass movements on the hanging wall block of the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and close to the epicentral region. Very few studies are available

on the description and analysis of factors which favour the reactivation of large scale mass

movements in the tectonically active region of the NW Himalayas. The result shows that the mass

movements occurred due to the earthquake reactivation of pre-existing mass movements. The

Langarpura and Neelidandi rock falls followed the steep scarp surfaces dipping southwest and

northwest respectively. The Langarpura rock fall reactivated southwest due to active southwest-

directed Himalayan thrusting. However, the Neelidandi rock fall reactivated due to northwest-

southeast active Himalayan extension perpendicular to the northeast-southwest active Himalayan

compression. The study indicates that these mass movements are the result of earthquake ground

motion, position on undercut slope causing over steepened slopes and preexisting reactivated

landslide bodies.

The reactivation of these mass movements on the hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault

suggests that the shaking level of ground motion was very high (Fig. 5.38; Intensity XI). The size,

texture, lithology, pre-existing scarp surfaces and morphology of older mass movement favored in

trigging these rock falls during the earthquake.

However, the study of the Panjgran slump and rock fall indicates that, it was an old mass

movement, which was reactivated during the earthquake 2005, followed the pre earthquake


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escarpment failure. The slump and rock fall combines different types of movements. In the slump

zone the movement of material is dominantly rotational. The slump zone was destabilized due to

the erosion of Neelum river and during the reconstruction of the Neelum road. However, the rock

fall occurred at the top of the Panjkot ridge because the scarp area and the slide surface below the

scarp have been oversteppened and the bed rock of the Miocene Murree Formation is highly

fractured and sheared due to the ground shaking and close to the earthquake epicenter. The

analysis indicates that the mass movement is the result of preexisting slump on over steepened

slope undercut by the Neelum river, triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

Chapter 6: Statistical analysis of the mass movement distribution

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Statistical analysis of the mass movement distribution triggered

by the Kashmir earthquake 2005

6.1. Introduction

The statistical analysis of mass movement distribution triggered by earthquakes has been

performed after many earthquakes in the world. Most studies investigated the general correlation

of mass movement distribution with causal factors such as earthquake source, ground motion,

shaking magnitude, terrain factors, and geological conditions (Jibson and Keefer, 1989; Keefer,

2000; Khazai and Sitar, 2003; Sato et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2007; Champati Ray et el., 2009; Qi

et al., 2010; Gorum T. et al., 2011). These studies provided valuable information in terms of

statistical distribution and characteristics of earthquake triggered mass movements, and have great

importance to understand the relationship between the distribution patterns of earthquake induced

mass movements and causal factors.

Kashmir earthquake 2005 generated more than 2,400 mass movements throughout the region in an

area of more than 7,500 km2, in the northern part of Pakistan (Sato et al., 2007; Owen et al., 2008).

Among them, 1,460 mass movements distributed in an area of approximately 1,299 km2, were

identified for statistical analysis of mass movement distribution, near the vicinity of the

Muzaffarabad city, the Jhelum valley and the Neelum valley areas. The area for analysis was

selected because it lies along the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and close to the epicentral region,

where the mass movement concentration was highest as compared to the other part of the affected

region. SPOT satellite imageries were used for the interpretation of the mass movement locations,

and field investigation was carried out in the specific zone along the rupture of the Muzaffarabad

Fault and the epicentral area. Therefore, a mass movement distribution map was prepared for this

study. The distribution of the events using SPOT satellite imageries (circular symbols) and ground

based field investigations (triangular symbols) are shown in Fig. 6.1.

6.2. Methodology

The analysis was carried out for all types of the mass movements induced by the Kashmir

earthquake 2005. The present procedure of analysis is similar to those described by Keefer (2000),

Khazai and Sitar (2003), Wang et al., (2007) and Qi et al., (2010) to investigate the mass

movement distribution induced by earthquakes in different parts of the world. ArcGIS 9.3 was

used to analyze the general correlation of mass movement distribution with causal factors (distance

from the earthquake source, topographic parameters and geological conditions).


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Fig. 6.1 Mass movement distribution map of the Kashmir earthquake 2005 in the vicinity of

Muzaffarabad, Jhelum and Neelum valleys. The investigated area is marked by a rectangular

polygon.

Mass movement distances were calculated using two distance definitions; the epicenter and the

surface projection of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. The position on the hanging wall and

foot wall block was determined. Topographic parameters such as slope angle, slope aspect and

slope elevation were calculated from the DEM and their dependency to the concentration of the

mass movements were determined. To understand the contribution of lithology, the analysis was

carried out using a geological map (Fig. 6.2) compiled after Wadia (1931), Calkins et al., (1975),


110

Baig and Lawrence (1987), Greco (1991), Hussain et al., (2004), Munir et al., (2006) and Kaneda

et al., (2008). The concentration of mass movements in different geological units was determined.

The dependency and effects of these different geological parameters on the concentration of the

mass movements were analyzed.

The index of the mass movement concentration for statistical analysis was defined to express the

influence of the mass movement occurrence according to Keefer (2000) and Wang et al., (2007),

which is calculated as number of mass movements per km2. Based on this criterion, the analysis

was performed for an area of 1,299 km2 which contained 1,460 mass movements.

Thus the average mass movement concentration of the study area was calculated as:

No. of mass movements: 1,460

Study area (km2): 1,299

Mass movement concentration (MCaverage) = 1,460 /1,299 km2

MC average

= 1.123 mass movements / km2

6.3. General mass movement distribution

In the study area, 1,460 mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 covered 3.9 %

of the total surface area. As shown in Fig. 6.1, the mass movement distribution is higher in the

southeast of Muzaffarabad including area of Muzaffarabad city and Jhelum valley, followed by the

mass movement distribution in the area of the Neelum valley in the north and northeast of

Muzaffarabad city. However, the distribution of mass movements is very low in the south and

southwest direction of Muzaffarabad city. This asymmetric distribution of mass movements may

be caused by the increasing distance to the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and the epicentral area.

Preliminary field investigations showed that mass movements are very frequent along the local

streams, main roads and along the banks of the Neelum river and the Jhelum river. Most of the

mass movements were shallow failures. However, some large scale mass movements were also

observed. The volumes of these large scale mass movements were estimated more than 106 m3.

In general, a very high mass movement concentration was observed along the rupture zone of the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault, MBT and close to the epicentral area (Fig. 6.1). It can be observed

that mass movement concentration is mostly very high within a 20 km wide and 40 km long strip

along Muzaffarabad Fault, stretching in the northwest-southeast direction from Muzaffarabad to

Chikar. However, the distribution of the mass movements did not follow the same pattern and is

more widely dispersed around Muzaffarabad Fault on the hanging wall part. Likewise, the area


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with highest mass movement concentration is restricted to only 10 km wide zone across the MBT

and epicenter region.

The concentration of mass movements is particularly dense along the hanging wall block of the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault as compared to the foot wall part. A large number of the mass

movements along the hanging wall block have very small in size and a shallow failure surface.

Nearly, all houses lying on the hanging wall block collapsed or sustained severe damage during

the earthquake, which suggests that the intensity of ground motion was very high in this area.

Additionally, the slopes of the hanging wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault are very

steep, which is also factor for the triggering of so many mass movements during the earthquake in

this area.

The study area is mainly composed by weathered shales, siltstones, sandstones, claystones,

conglomerates, dolomites, limestones, marls, slates, phyllites and granitic or gneissic rocks

belonging to Precambrian, Cambrian, Carboniferous-Triassic, Tertiary and Quaternary rocks (Fig.

6.2). During the field survey it was observed, in the north of the study area, the mass movements

occurred in metasediments, graphitic schists, talc schists, marbles, coarse grained two-mica granite

gneisses, metacarbonates, metabasic volcanics, and quartzites of the Precambrian Tanol

Formation, the Cambrian Mansehra Granite and the Carboniferous-Triassic Panjal Formation.

Whereas, in the southeast of the area, most of the mass movements occurred in interbedded

sandstones, shales and claystones of the Miocene Murree Formation. Towards the west and

southwest of the study area the mass movements occurred along Muzaffarabad Fault and Jhelum

Fault in the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation and the Precambrian Hazara Formation. These

lithologies, played a vital role for the occurrence of the mass movements during the earthquake.


112

Fig. 6.2 Map showing the geological setting of the study area affected by the mass movements

(compiled after Wadia, 1931; Calkins et al., 1975; Baig and Lawrence, 1987; Greco, 1989;

Hussain et al., 2004, Munir et al., 2006 and Kaneda et al., 2008).

6.4. Mass movement concentration as function of distance to earthquake source

The statistical analysis of mass movement concentration as a function of distance to earthquake

source was made within the study area of 1,299 km2 (Fig. 6.1). Given the restriction of study area

being within the territory of effected part of AJK, this investigation was not carried out the whole

area, affected by the Kashmir earthquake 2005. Due to the geometrical effects, the area around the

earthquake source is unevenly distributed, that may misrepresent the overall results (Figs 6.3a and


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6.3b). Considering the geometrical effects and the mutual effects of the Muzaffarabad Fault and

epicenter, a separate analysis was also made, involving an area of 10 km radius around the

epicenter and Muzaffarabad Fault (Figs. 6.3c and 6.3d).

Figs. 6.3 (a) Mass movement distribution around the epicenter within the whole study area, (b)

Mass movement distribution around the Muzaffarabad Fault within the whole study area (c) Mass

movement distribution involving an area of 10 km around epicenter, (d) Mass movement

distribution involving an area of 10 km around the rupture of the Muzaffarabad Fault.


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6.4.1. Mass movement concentration in terms of distance from epicenter

The correlation between mass movement concentration and distance from the epicenter was

analyzed for all 1,460 mass movements, in the investigation area. The mass movement

concentration was obtained as a function of distance from the epicenter. Therefore, the distances

between the mass movement deposits and the epicenter were calculated. The mass movement

concentration was determined for a sequence of 1 km concentric bands extending (Buffer) up to 43

km outward from the epicenter in the southeast of the study area (Fig. 6.3a). The width (which

means the total distance from the epicenter to the mass movements of the concentric bands)

extending outward from the epicenter, was selected where the majority of the mass movements

was generated during the earthquake and provides enough details for the analysis. However, width

of the outer band towards north and northeast of Muzaffarabad district were truncated, as there

were less mass movements occurred during the earthquake. Towards northwest and southwest of

Muzaffarabad city, the bands were truncated due to the limitation of the study area.

Fig. 6.4 shows the variation of the mass movement concentration with the epicentral distance. In

general, the number of the mass movements fluctuates in the whole area. The highest mass

movement concentration (3.82 mass movements / km2) is reached in an area with up to 2 km

distance to the epicenter. Mass movement concentration values decrease from 3.82 mass

movements / km2 at a distance from 2-3 and 0.50 at a distance of 8-9 km to the epicenter, while the

mass movement concentration dramatically increases again at a distance of 19 km and 41 km away

from the epicenter, having mass movement concentration values of 2.41 and 2.75 mass movements

/ km2 respectively.

The analysis indicates that the mass movement concentration decreases with the increase in

distance up to 9 km from the epicenter (Figs. 6.4 and 6.5a). However, the concentration of the

mass movements doesn’t follow the same trend and gradually increases up to 19 km, beyond

which it again goes down and slightly fluctuates up to 39 km and at 41 km from the epicenter. This

rapid hike of mass movement concentration is apparently due to the proximity of the area to the

rupture of the Muzaffarabad Fault. There is clear evidence that these rises in mass movement

occurrence far from the epicenter are caused by the vicinity to the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault

which was active during the 2005 earthquake. The rise in the mass movement concentration in 41

km distance to the epicenter is caused by the vicinity of the investigation area to Muzaffarabad

Fault and a geometrical effect, because only a little area directly in the vicinity to the

Muzaffarabad Fault is taken into account in this distance to the epicenter.


115

Fig. 6.4 Number, area of mass movement and mass movement concentration defined in terms of

distance from the epicenter.

The regression analysis for overall data shows a significant weak inverse relationship between the

distance from the epicenter and the mass movement concentration (R2 = 0.22, r = -0.46, p = 0.001;

Fig. 6.5a). This suggests that there is a decrease in mass movement concentration with increasing

distance from the epicenter. In addition, the standard error value of the mass movement

concentration compared to epicentral distance is considerably very high (Se= 11.23). This high

value of standard error may be due to the effect of the Muzaffarabad Fault rupture. The values fit

well empirically with a simple linear regression equation:

Mc = 1.9146 – 0.031De

Mc is the mass movement concentration and De is the epicentral distance in km.

However, there is a significant strong inverse correlation (R2 = 0.92, r = -0.94, p = <0.001; Se=

0.37) between the distance from epicenter and the concentration of mass movements, when an area

of 10 km away from the epicenter is put under regression analysis (Fig. 6.5b). The standard error

value of mass movement concentration with epicentral distance is 0.37. The data fit empirically

well with a linear regression equation.

Mc = 3.9973 - 0.3822De

Mc is the mass movement concentration and De is the epicentral distance in km.


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Mc = 1.9146 - 0.031De

R2 = 0.22

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Distance from epicenter, De (km)

Mas

s m

ov

emen

t co

nce

ntr

atio

n

Mc

(mas

s m

ov

emen

t /

km

2 )

Mc = 3.9973 - 0.3822De

R2 = 0.92

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0 2 4 6 8 10

Distance from epicenter, De (km)

Mas

s m

ov

emen

t co

nce

ntr

atio

n

Mc

(mas

s m

ov

emen

t /

km

2 )

Figs. 6.5 (a) Relationship between the mass movement concentration and the distance from the

epicenter for over all data, (b) Relationship between the mass movement concentration and the

distance 10 km away from the epicenter.

(a)

(b)


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This remarkable difference in the strength of inverse relationship between distance from epicenter

and mass movement concentration is likely due to the effect of Muzaffarabad Fault rupture. In

former instance, where whole data, adding the effect of Muzaffarabad Fault rupture, is involved,

the distance from epicenter and mass movement concentration shows a weak correlation and high

value of standard error. As the mass movement concentration gradually increased after 10 km

distance to epicenter due to the effect of Muzaffarabad Fault rupture that misrepresents the effect

of the epicenter on mass movement concentration. The analysis shows that the rupture of the

Muzaffarabad Fault strongly affected the concentration of the mass movements in terms of

distance from the epicenter for over all data. However, in a later case only data within 10 km

distance to the epicenter were taken into account. This analysis excludes the effect of

Muzaffarabad Fault rupture that increased the mass movement concentration away from the

epicenter. Therefore, the analysis indicates that in general the mass movement concentration

decreases with increasing the distance from the epicenter. The result shows that strong ground

motion caused the high concentration of mass movements near the epicentral region.

6.4.2. Mass movement concentration in terms of distance from Muzaffarabad Fault

The mass movement concentration in terms of distance from Muzaffarabad Fault rupture was

conducted for 1,460 mass movements. Therefore, the Muzaffarabad Fault rupture was used to

calculate the distance between the mass movement events and the fault plane rupture. One km

wide concentric bands have been constructed parallel to Muzaffarabad Fault extending outwards

(Buffer) from the hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault towards the northeast and

southeast, where the majority of the mass movements occurred during the earthquake (Fig. 6.3b).

The outer band towards south and southwest were truncated, as less mass movements occurred on

the foot wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault. The largest distance between the mass movements

and Muzaffarabad Fault on the hanging wall side ranges up to 30 km, while on the foot wall side

the distance ranges up to 10 km, within the study area.

Fig. 6.6 shows the variation of the mass movement concentration occurring within one km

distance to the surface rupture of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. As it can be seen from Fig.

6.6, the largest number of mass movements was found close to the fault and it is gradually

decreasing with the increase of the distance from the Muzaffarabad Fault rupture. While the

number of mass movements increases again in an area of 14-19 km distance to Muzaffarabad Fault

and then again decreases from 20-30 km distance to the fault rupture. Likewise, the values of mass

movement concentration are also very high, immediately adjacent to the Muzaffarabad Fault

rupture and decrease as the distance increases up to the distance of 11 km away from the fault. The


118

highest mass movement concentration value is found to be 2.34 at a distance of 1 km within the

surface rupture of the Muzaffarabad Fault. However, the concentration of the mass movements

gradually fluctuates from the distance of 15-19 km, in an area from the fault and having mass

movement concentration values of 0.48-2.09 mass movements / km2. Furthermore, the mass

movement concentration values again decrease to 2.00-0.18 mass movements / km2 in an area of

20-27 km distance to the Muzaffarabad Fault rupture.

The analysis shows that the concentration of the mass movements gradually decreases as the

distance increases up to 11 km away from the distance of the Muzaffarabad Fault. However, the

mass movement concentration values are also high at the distance of 15-24 km in an area from the

Muzaffarabad Fault. This indicates that the shaking motion is decreasing in general with

increasing distance from the Muzaffarabad Fault rupture, but at the distance of 15-24 km away

from the fault, the shaking motion is increasing, due to the effect of the epicentral area and

presence of the MBT in the northeast of Muzaffarabad. Although, the MBT was not reactivated

during the Kashmir earthquake 2005, but ground shaking level was very high due to close to the

epicentral region.

Fig. 6.6 Number, area of mass movement and mass movement concentration defined in terms of

distance from the Muzaffarabad Fault.


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The linear regression analysis between the mass movement concentration and the distance from

the Muzaffarabad Fault rupture was statistically non significant for the overall data (R2 = 0.09, r =

-0.29; Fig. 6.7a). Furthermore, the standard error value (Se= 0.56) of mass movement

concentration with the rupture of the Muzaffarabad Fault is considerably high. The data can be

fitted with the linear regression equation:

Mc = 1.3315 – 0.0196Df

Where Mc is the mass movement concentration and Df is the distance from the Muzaffarabad

Fault in km.

However, there is the statistically significant inverse correlation between the mass movement

concentration and the distance from the Muzaffarabad Fault (R2 = 0.68, r = -0.82, p = 0.003; Se =

0.29, Fig. 6.7b), when the area of 10 km away from the Muzaffarabad Fault is put under regression

analysis. The values are well fitted with the linear regression equation:

Mc = 1.9133 - 0.1321Df

Where Mc is the mass movement concentration and Df is the distance from the Muzaffarabad

Fault in km.

Excluding the effect of the epicentral area and MBT, the analysis shows that there likely exists

moderate inverse correlation between the mass movement concentration and a certain distance.

Fig. 6.7a indicates that the relationship between the mass movement concentration and the distance

from the Muzaffarabad Fault for all data causes statistically non significant results. As the effect of

the epicentral region is involved, that falsifies the effect of Muzaffarabad Fault on mass movement

concentration. However, when considering the data within 10 km from the Muzaffarabad Fault as

shown in Fig. 6.7b. This indicates that the mass movement concentration decreasing with the

increase of the distance from the Muzaffarabad Fault. This reflects that mass movement

concentration around the high seismic zone, near the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault may be the

result that rock mass in the adjacent area is highly fractured.


120

Mc = 1.3315 - 0.0196Df

R2 = 0.09

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Distance from Fault, Df (km)

Mas

s m

ov

emen

t co

nce

ntr

atio

n

Mc

(mas

s m

ov

emen

t /

km

2 )

Mc = 1.9133 - 0.1321Df

R2 = 0.68

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Distance from Fault, Df (km)

Mas

s m

ov

emen

t co

nce

ntr

atio

n

Mc

(mas

s m

ov

emen

t /

km

2 )

Figs. 6.7 (a) Relationship between the mass movement concentration and the distance from the

Muzaffarabad Fault for over all data, (b) Relationship between the mass movement concentration

and the distance 10 km away from the Muzaffarabad Fault.

(a)

(b)


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6.4.3. Mass movement concentration in terms of distance from hanging wall and foot wall

blocks of Muzaffarabad Fault

Using the surface projection of the Muzaffarabad Fault, the mass movement concentration was

analyzed within a 14 km wide zone of 40 km length from Muzaffarabad to Chikar fault segment

along the hanging wall block and the foot wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. The

mass movement concentration was determined within one km concentric bands extending 7 km

away from the hanging wall block and foot wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault (Fig. 6.8). The

width of the bands was truncated, as a very less number of mass movements occurred away from

this distance to the fault on the foot wall block and the given restriction of the study area. The

distances from the rupture of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault to the mass movements have

been calculated for the hanging wall block and the foot wall block.

The analysis shows that 40% of all mass movements occurred on the hanging wall side and 12 %

on that of the foot wall side of the Muzaffarabad Fault within the study area (Fig. 6.3b). Of these,

77 % of the mass movements occurred on the hanging wall block and 23 % mass movements in

the foot wall block within 7 km of the Muzaffarabad Fault which accounting for the area of 60 %

and 40 % respectively (Fig. 6.8).

Fig. 6.8 Mass movement distribution along hanging and foot wall blocks of the reactivated

Muzaffarabad Fault around 7 km distance, away from the Muzaffarabad Fault rupture.


122

Fig. 6.8 shows the variation of the mass movement concentration along the hanging wall block and

the foot wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. In general, the concentration of the mass

movements is related to the distance from the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault rupture.

As seen in Fig. 6.9, the mass movement concentration has a maximum value of 3.40 mass

movements / km2 at a distance of 1 km on the hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault. The

mass movement concentration value drops to 0.87 mass movement / km2 at a distance of 7 km

from the fault rupture. While, the mass movement concentration values fluctuate from 1.54 to 0.39

mass movement / km2 in the distance of 7 km on the foot wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault.

The analysis indicates that the concentration of the mass movements is high on the hanging wall

block of the Muzaffarabad Fault compared to the concentration of the mass movements on the foot

wall block. The values of the mass movement concentration decrease as the distance increases

from the fault source on both sides of the fault rupture.

Fig. 6.9 Number, area of mass movement and concentration of mass movement on the hanging

wall block (left) and foot wall block (right) of the Muzaffarabad Fault.


123

6.5. Mass movement concentration in terms of topographic parameters

An ASTER based DEM with 30 m x 30 m resolution of the study area was used for the analysis of

the dependency between mass movement concentration and topographic parameters (Figs. 6.10a,

6.10b, and 6.10c). According to the topographic characteristics, the analysis was performed among

the slope steepness, slope aspect and elevation categories and their relationship with the

concentration of the mass movement triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

For the analysis of topographic parameters, the study area is divided into seven categories based

on the slope angle. While, the slope aspect map is divided into eight slope aspect classes.

Likewise, the elevation in study area is divided into eight categories. 97% area is at the elevation

between 500–3,000 m asl, and only 3% is above 3,000 m asl for the total area (Tables 6.1, 6.2 and

6.3).

Fig. 6.10 (a) Slope angle distribution of the study area (b) slope aspect distribution of the study

area (c) DEM of the study area.


124

6.5.1. Mass movement concentration as function of slope steepness

In general, steep slopes are potentially endangered for mass movements triggered by earthquakes.

Within the study area the slope angle for the grid cells ranges from 0 - 70º and most of the mass

movements were found in grid cells with slopes ranging from 0 - 60º. For each 10º interval of

slope steepness, the mass movement concentration was calculated from the determination of the

grid cells and the number of the mass movements present within those grid cells. The percentage

of mass movement concentration was calculated as the percentage of the number of mass

movements divided by the percentage of mass movement area (Table 6.1).

Table 6.1 The relationship between mass movement concentration and slope steepness within the

study area of Kashmir earthquake 2005.

Slope

(degrees) No. of mass movements

Area (km

2)

Mass movement concentration

No. of mass movements

(%)

Area (%) Mass movement

concentration (%)

0-10 148 405 0.37 10.1 31.2 0.32 11-20 263 377 0.70 18.0 29.0 0.62

21-30 405 285 1.42 27.7 21.9 1.26

31-40 478 128 3.73 32.7 9.9 3.30

41-50 165 102 1.62 11.3 7.9 1.43

51-60 1 2 0.50 0.1 0.2 0.5

61-70 0 0.1 0 0 0 0

All 1,460 1,299 100.0 100.0

Fig. 6.11 and Table 6.1 show the relationship between occurrence (No. of mass movements) and

concentration of the mass movement and the slope angle categories. The mass movement

occurrence increases with increasing slope angle at categories of 31- 40º. It decreases with slope

angles bigger than 40°. Nearly 20 % of all mass movements occurred at slope angles less than 20

degrees accounted for the area of 51 %.

The slope categories of 0-10º contains larger area with less numbers of mass movements as

compared to the slope categories of 31-40º which contains majority of mass movements but less in

area. This shows that the higher slope angle affect the distribution of the mass movements.

The absence of mass movements in steeper slope categories is caused by the absence of debris in

these steep slopes, because most of the mass movements triggered by earthquake in this area are

caused by the mobilization of the debris cover, due to the earthquake ground motion.

The mass movement concentration also shows the same trend until highest concentration value of

up to 3.73 mass movements / km2 is reached in the class of 31-40° and then abruptly decrease to

1.61 mass movements / km2 at the category of 41-50º (Fig. 6.11).


125


concentration and the slope gradient categories.

The analysis indicates that the mass movement concentration is highest at the slope angle of 31-

40º which accounted the area of 9.9 %. While, the second highest concentration is at the slope

angle of 41-50º covering an area of 7.9 %. The high concentration of the mass movements at slope

angle between 31-50º indicates that mass movements were strongly concentrated on steep slopes

close to the epicenter and Muzaffarabad Fault during the earthquake. The mass movement

concentration abruptly decreases at higher slope angles of 51-60º. This is may be due to the

absence of the debris at higher slope angle and the size of the grid cells used in the analysis.

6.5.2. Mass movement concentration as a function of slope aspect

Slope aspect has effects on the mass movements due to influencing the several factors like

insolation, weathered condition, land cover and soil condition (Kamp et al., 2008). The DEM

analysis of the study area reveals that the dominating mass movement directions are southwest,

south and southeast. The mass movements also facing slopes of other aspect as well (Fig. 6.10b,

Table 6.2).


126

Fig. 6.12 and Table 6.2 show the relationship between the occurrence (No. of mass movements)

and the concentration of the mass movement and eight slope aspect. The analysis indicates that,

nearly 57 % of all mass movements occurred on slopes facing in southeast, south, and southwest

directions which accounted an area of approximately 38 % of the study area. Followed by, 24 % of

mass movements facing in north, northeast and east directions covering approximately 31 % of the

area. The other 19 % of mass movements occurred in west and northwest direction accounting for

31 % of the area. This shows that mass movements distributed in slope facing in southerly

directions covering the larger area as compared to the other slope aspect.

Table 6.2 The relationship between mass movement concentration and slope aspect within the

study area of Kashmir earthquake 2005.

Slope

Aspect


Area (km

2)

Mass movement concentration


(%)

Area (%) Mass movement concentration

(%)

North 105 127 0.83 7.2 9.8 0.7

Northeast 94 132 0.71 6.4 10.2 0.6

East 149 135 1.10 10.2 10.4 1.0

Southeast 252 146 1.73 17.3 11.2 1.5

South 323 173 1.87 22.1 13.3 1.7

Southwest 259 176 1.47 17.7 13.6 1.3

West 177 204 0.87 12.1 15.6 0.8

Northwest 101 206 0.49 6.9 15.9 0.4

All 1,460 1,299 100.0 100.0

The mass movement concentration values are also very high in the southerly directions, as

compared to the other directions (Fig. 6.12). This suggests that the preferred orientation of the

mass movement seems to be dominated on the slope facing the southerly directions. This may be

due to the geometrical conditions of the valleys in the working region which cause many slopes

oriented in this direction.


127

Fig. 6.12 Number, area of mass movement and the relationship of mass movement concentration

and slope aspect.

6.5.3. Mass movement concentration as function of elevation

The study area is characterized by high steep rugged mountains and deep valleys. Mountains in the

northern part of the area are generally ranging 2,000-4,500 m asl. In the southern part the elevation

ranges from 500 m to 850 m asl. The area in the elevation between 500-1,500 m is mainly

composed of terraces and deep valleys. The area at elevation between 1,500 m to 2,000 m consists

of very steep slopes with debris cover.

Fig. 6.13 and Table 6.3 show the variation between the occurrence and concentration of the mass

movements and the elevation of the study area. Almost 74 % of all mass movements occurred at

elevations below 2,000 m asl, which accounted an area of 71 %. The 24.9 % of all mass

movements occurred at an elevation between 2,000–3,000 m asl covering an area of 25.6 %. Less

than 1 % of all mass movements occurred at elevations greater than 3,000 m asl accounting an area

of 3 %.

The analysis indicates that the maximum number of mass movements occurred on an elevation of

1,000-1,500 m (33.90%), 500-1000 m (23.84%) and 1,500-2,000 (16.23%), which is accounting

for 74% of the study area.


128

Table 6.3 The relationship between mass movements concentration and elevation within the study

area of the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

Elevation (m asl) No. of Mass

movements

Area

(km2)

Mass movement

concentration

No. of Mass

movements (%)

Area (%) Mass movements

concentration (%)

500-1000 348 376 0.92 23.8 28.9 0.82

1,000-1,500 495 288 1.71 33.9 22.1 1.53

1,500-2,000 237 257 0.92 16.2 19.7 0.82

2,000-2,500 188 172 1.09 12.8 13.2 0.97

2,500-3,000 177 162 1.09 12.1 12.4 0.97

3,000-3,500 13 25 0.52 0.8 1.9 0.46

3,500-4,000 2 15 0.13 0.1 1.1 0.12

>4,000 0 4 0 0 0.3 0.00

All 1,460 1,299 100 100

The number of the mass movements decreases with increasing elevation from 2,000-4,500 m.

However, the concentration of the mass movement is high between the elevations of 1,000-1,500

m (Fig. 6.13). The mass movement concentration abruptly decreases at the higher elevations. This

may be due to the area of higher elevation lies with larger distance from the Muzaffarabad Fault

and epicentral area. Moreover, only a small area lies over the higher elevations for the analysis.


concentration and elevation of the study area.


129

6.6. Distribution of mass movements as function of geological units

In general, the rock masses within the study area are very fragile, highly fractured, sheared and

jointed due to folding and faulting. The bed rock geology of the area of Muzaffarabad city, the

Jhelum valley and the Neelum valley produced non uniform resistance against ground shaking,

structural failure, hanging wall collapse and escarpment failure during the Kashmir earthquake

2005. This is due to its varied inherent characteristics of the rock properties. Therefore, the

geological susceptibility to mass movements shows a significant distribution within the geological

units (Fig. 6.14).

The number of mass movements increases in areas where the lithology is prone for mass

movements, like Murree Formation of the Miocene age (Fig. 6.15). Furthermore, the mass

movement concentration is high in areas which are relatively close to the fault with high relief and

steep gradient. Therefore, the mass movement distribution for each geological unit is underlain by

nine major rock units as shown in Table 6.4 and Figs. 6.14, 6.15 and 6.16.

Table 6.4, Figs. 6.14, 6.15 and 6.16 show the occurrence of mass movements (No. of mass

movements), mass movement area, and mass movement concentration of different geological units

within the study area. The analysis indicates that 71% of all mass movements occurred in Tertiary

sediments, which are prone to the mass movement occurrence in sloping areas in different parts of

the world. Although, these units affected by the mass movements covered 79% of the whole study

area. In contrast, 29% mass movements occurred in the Precambrian, the Cambrian and the

Carboniferous-Triassic, rocks which accounted 21% of the area. Among the Tertiary sedimentary

rocks, the Miocene Murree Formation generated 67.4 % mass movements which cover 75.4 % of

the total area. Followed by Paleocene-Eocene sequence, Kamlial Formation and Quaternary

sediments produced 1.0 %, 0.1 % and 2.5 % mass movements accounted an area of 0.9 %, 0.8 %

and 1.8 % respectively (Figs 6.14 and 6.15).

Moreover, the second highest mass movement occurrence, 10.9 % was found in the Muzaffarabad

Formation, which accounted only 2.4% of the area. Followed by, mass movement occurrence 10.3

% in Manshera Granite, which accounted 10.2 % of the area. While, the mass movements

occurrence in Panjal Formation, Tanol Formation and Hazara Formation ranged 3.8 %, 1.6 %, 2.5

% which accounted 2.5 %, 2.4 % and 3.6 % of the area respectively (Figs. 6.15, 6.16 and Table

6.4).


130

Table 6.4 Geological formations, lithological description, age, percentage of mass movement,

percentage of surface area for geological units and mass movement concentration.

Geological

Formation

Description of Lithology Age Percentage

of mass

movements

(%)

Percentage

of surface

area (%)

Mass movement

concentration (mass

movements / km²)

Quaternary Stream bed deposits and alluvium.

Holocene 2.5 1.8

1.50

Kamlial Formation

Sandstones, shales, claystones and minor intraformational conglomerates.

Late Miocene 0.1 0.8 0.20

Murree Formation

Interbedded sandstones, siltstones with shales and claystones.

Early

Miocene

67.4 75.4 1.00

Paleocene-Eocene (Hangu, Lochart, Patala, Margala, Chorgali and Kuldana Formations)

Nodular limestones, calcareous and carbonaceous shales, claystones and laterite.

Paleocene-

Eocene

1.0 0.9 1.25

Panjal Formation Metacarbonates, metasediments, metabasic volcanics, quartzite and graphitic schists.

Carboniferous-Triassic

3.8 2.5 1.72

Muzaffarabad Formation

Cherty and stromatolitic dolomites, cherty white and grey bands, limestones and black shales

Cambrian

10.9 2.4 5.13

Mansehra Granite Coarse grained two-mica granite gneiss.

Cambrian 10.3 10.2 1.14

Tanol Formation Pelitic and psammitic metasediments, subordinate minor graphitic schist, talc schist and marbles.

Precambrian 1.6 2.4 0.74

Hazara Formation Slate, phyllite and shales with minor limestones and graphitic layers.

Precambrian 2.5 3.6 0.70


131

Quaternary

2.5%

Kamlial Fm

0.1%

Murree Fm

67.4%

Paleocene-Eocene

Sequence

1.0%

Panjal Fm

3.8%

Muzaffarabad Fm

10.9%

Mansehra Granite

10.3%

Tanol Fm

1.6%

Hazara Fm

2.5%

Fig. 6.14 The percentage of mass movement occurrence in terms of geological units.

The analysis in terms of mass movement area shows that the occurrence (No. of mass movements)

of mass movements is greater in the early Miocene Murree Formation rather than in other

formations (Fig. 6.14). The Miocene Murree Formation, which is one of the major geological units

within the study area consisting primary of shales, siltstones, claystones and interbedded

sandstones. Mass movements occurred along the bedding parallel slip between alternating

competent sandstones and in competent shales, siltstones and claystones. A similar pattern was

found in the Loma Prieta earthquake 1989, in which the Purisime Formation consisting of an

interbedded sequence of sandstones, siltstones and shales produced more mass movements than

any other geological unit (Keefer, 2000; Khazai and Sitar, 2003).


132

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Quat

erna

ry

Kam

lial F

m

Murr

ee F

m

Pal

eoce

ne-Eoce

ne S

equen

ce

Panja

l Fm

Muza

ffar

abad

Fm

Man

sehr

a Gra

nite

Tanol F

m

Haz

ara

Fm

Geological units

Ma

ss

mo

vem

en

t a

rea

(%

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ma

ss m

ov

em

en

t co

nce

ntr

ati

on

Mass movement area Mass movement concentration

Fig. 6.15 The percentage of mass movement area in terms of geological units.

In this study, the concentration of the mass movements is within two main concentration zones.

One is the area close to the epicenter and MBT in the Neelum valley. While, the other one is along

the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault on the hanging wall block in Muzaffarabad city and the Jhelum

valley area (Fig. 6.2). It can be seen from Fig. 6.16 that the highest mass movement concentration

with a value of about 5.13 mass movements / km2 was found in Cambrian Muzaffarabad

Formation exposed along the hanging wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. Whereas,

the second highest mass movement concentration value of 1.72 mass movements / km2 in Panjal

Formation exposed along the MBT and close to the epicentral area. The Quaternary sediment has

the third highest mass movement concentration value of 1.50 mass movements / km2. In contrast,

the lowest and the second lowest mass movement concentration values were found in the Kamlial

Formation and Tanol Formation ranging 0.20 and 0.74 mass movements / km2 respectively (Fig.

6.16 and Table 6.4).

The mass movement concentration differs substantially among various geological units within the

study area. However, the concentration of mass movements is higher in Cambrian Muzaffarabad


133

Formation as compared to other formations (Fig. 6.16), which indicates that the Muzaffarabad

Formation is highly susceptible to mass movements. This may have been aggravated due to the

closeness to the active Muzaffarabad Fault, the occurrence of intensely fractured and broken

dolomite rocks and very high steep slopes around Muzaffarabad city.

Fig. 6.16 Number, area of mass movement and the slope failure in different rock types defined in

terms of mass movement concentration.

The highest mass movement concentration in Muzaffarabad Formation with a value of 5.13 mass

movements / km2 accounted only for 2.4 % of the study area. While, the Murree Formation with a

mass movement concentration value of 1.0 mass movements / km2 accounted for 75.4 % of the

area (Figs. 6.15 and 6.16). This indicates that the mass movement concentration has no obvious

relationship with the area affected by the mass movements. However, the values of mass

movement concentration diminishing in Tanol Formation and Kamlial Formation may be due to

the given restriction of the area for this analysis rather than the lithological factor and earthquake

source. Therefore, other factors such as lithology, ground motion, collapsed of hanging wall block,

highly fractured rocks and the slope steepness can caused the variation of the mass movement

concentration values in different geological units within the study area.


134

6.7. Discussion and conclusions

The statistical analysis used herein shows that the distribution of mass movements triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005 generally decreases with increasing distance from the epicenter and the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. Results of the analysis show that the concentration of the mass

movements was high close to the earthquake source. However, for the overall data there are

sudden increases in concentration values away from the epicenter and the Muzaffarabad Fault

rupture, which involves merely the effects of both the epicentral area and the reactivated

Muzaffarabad Fault each other. Considering the data 10 km away from the earthquake source for

analysis, there are inverse correlations between the mass movement concentration and distances

from the epicenter and reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. The highest coefficient of determination

for the epicenter (R2 = 0.92) suggests that the ground shaking that caused the mass movements was

highly concentrated near the epicenter rather than being uniformly distributed along the reactivated

Muzaffarabad Fault (R2 = 0.68). A similar relation was found in the previous studies for the Loma

Prieta event 1989 (Keefer, 2000), Chi-Chi earthquake 1999 (Khazai and Sitar, 2003), Chuetsu

earthquake 2004 (Wang et al., 2007) and Wenchuan earthquake 2008 (Gorum T et al., 2011).

For Loma Prieta, California event Keefer (2000) found a strong correlation (R2 = 0.97) between

the mass movement concentration and the epicenter rather than along the fault rupture (R2 = 0.80).

His relation is based on 1,280 mass movements mapped in an area of 2,000 km2. However, he

analyzed the data where the mass movement concentration was highest and data was relatively

complete. Khazai and Sitar (2003) performed the similar analyses for the Chi–Chi, Taiwan event

based on 2507 mass movement in an area of approximately 14,000 km2. They observed that the

mass movement concentration gradually decreases away from the epicenter and the surface

projection of the fault. They reported that the values of mass movement concentration diminishing

beyond the 40 km distance from the epicenter and mass movement concentration shows much

gradual decrease with distance away from the fault than the Loma Prieta event. Furthermore,

Wang et al. (2007) showed similar results for the Chuestsu earthquake Niigata, Japan. Their

analysis was based on 1212 mass movements covering an area of 275 km2. They concluded that

the mass movement concentration decreases with the increase of distance from the earthquake.

While, the percentage of the area affected by the mass movement increases with distance from the

epicenter. Contrary to these studies, Gorum T. et al. (2011) did not find any correlation between

the mass movement concentration and distance from the epicenter. However, a strong correlation

existed between the mass movement concentration and the distance from the fault rupture (R2 =

0.99). When compared the Kashmir earthquake 2005 results with Loma Prieta earthquake 1989

(Keefer, 2000), Chi-Chi earthquake 1999 (Khazai and Sitar, 2003) and Wenchuan earthquake


135

2008, China (Qi et al., 2010), its shows significant similarities in the concentration of mass

movements, while, considering the geometrical effects and the mutual effects of the earthquake

source, and contrary from Wenchuan earthquake 2008. As, the mass movement concentration for

the Wenchuan earthquake is primary controlled by the fault rapture rather than the epicenter. This

is due to the most of the mass movement events occurred within 10 km range of the fault.

In terms of topographic parameters, slope angle, slope aspect and elevation were analyzed to

reveal their correlation with the distribution of mass movements in the study area. Most mass

movements occurred in grid cells with slope angles ranging 31º- 40º and having mass movement

concentration values of up to 3.73 mass movements / km2.

The distribution of the slope angles for mass movements triggered with other earthquakes showed

that 90% of the mass movements occurred on slope angles greater than 45º in the Chi-Chi

earthquake 1999, while 83% and 90 % of mass movement failures occurred on slopes with less

than 50º in the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes respectively (Khazia and Sitar, 2003).

However, most of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 occurred on

slope angles of less than 50º, which is in close agreement to the Northridge and Loma Prieta

earthquakes and contrary from the Chi-Chi earthquake 1999. This difference from the Chi–Chi

earthquake is due to the mass movements typically occurred on steep slopes of young mountain

ranges in Taiwan (Lin et al., 2000).

Slope aspects have also effects on the distribution of the mass movements as well. The preferred

orientations of mass movement distribution were towards southerly directions. It should be noted

that most of the mass movement directions are related to the southwest Himalayan direction in the

northeast of the Himalayan of Pakistan.

The mass movement distribution in different elevation categories shows that a large number of

mass movements occurred on elevation ranges from 1000 -1,500 m which is accounting for 22 %

of the study area. The less number of mass movements at higher elevations is due to the small area

and larger distance from the earthquake source.

The distribution of mass movements in terms of geological units was examined according to the

description of lithology. Following the lithological description, 67.4 % of the mass movements

occurred in the Miocene Murree Formation which accounts 75.4 % of the total study area. In

contrast, the remaining 35% of the mass movements occurred in eight other geological units

covering the 25% of the study area.

Like the Chi-Chi earthquake 1999 and Loma Prieta earthquake 1989, the Kashmir earthquake also

triggered more than 70% of the total mass movements within Tertiary rocks. The mass movement

concentration (5.48 mass movements / km2) is much higher in the carbonate rocks of the Cambrian


136

Muzaffarabad Formation as compared to other formations within the study area. This might be due

to the highly fractured dolomites on the hanging wall block along the brittle shear zone of the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault.

This study concludes that the mass movement distribution is mainly depending on the distance

from the earthquake source (epicenter and Muzaffarabad Fault) rather than the topographic

parameters and geological settings of the area.

Chapter 7: Empirical analysis of geometrical parameters of mass movements

137

Empirical analysis of geometrical parameters of mass movements triggered by

the Kashmir earthquake 2005

7.1. Empirical models

Empirical models are those that are based on observations and field data rather than on theoretical

assumptions or physical principles. These models are relatively simple and easy to use as

compared to other methods. The information used for these models can be easily collected in the

field or obtained from the existing literature. Sometime these models are also known as statistical

models (Keylock and Domaas, 1999).

In general, mass movement events and travel distance have been analyzed, using the two main

basic empirical models, widely adopted in the existing literature; the “Fahrböschung angle” (Heim,

1932; Shreve, 1968; Scheidegger, 1973; Hsü, 1975; Corominas, 1996; Erismann and Abele, 2001)

and the “shadow angle” (Lied, 1977; Hungr and Evans, 1988; Evans and Hungr, 1993). These

models correlate physical properties of the mass movements and establish the relationship between

the characteristics of the failure region and the travel distance (Mc Dougall and Hungr, 2004).

Empirical models are generally applied for the understanding of the factors such as initiation,

travel distance, and deposit volume to assess the mass movement hazard for the potentially

affected area. Furthermore, these models are widely used for the prediction of the travel distance

behaviour for mass movements in mountainous regions (Heim, 1932, Evans and Hungr, 1993).

The results can be used to predict the travel distance of mass movements in the same area or in

another area with similar conditions (Evans and Hungr, 1993; Soeters and Van Westen, 1996).

However, the results are not applicable to explain the mechanism and behaviour of mass

movements only by taking the travel distance into account (Copons et al., 2009). Therefore,

empirical methods should be applied with some judgment and care.

7.2. Study background

Before the Kashmir earthquake 2005, the risk posed by mass movements was underestimated and

no systematic scientific investigations were carried out in the study area. Sporadic scientific

investigations, carried out soon after the earthquake focused mainly on the identification and

distribution of mass movements. Owen et al. (2008) identified 1,293 mass movements at 174

locations within an area of 750 km2, near Muzaffarbad and Balakot, and developed first inventory

by quantifying the types of failure. However, they did not collect the data on important parameters

such as volume, length, height, Fahrböschung angle, shadow angle, and talus slope angle needed

for empirical analysis.


138

This study was mainly focused on the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley, and Neelum

valley areas, in the NW Himalayas of Pakistan (Fig. 7.1). The data used for the analysis were

collected for the events spatially distributed on the steep slopes, the hanging wall block of the

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault, the MBT and close in the epicentral region. Among several types

of mass movements, the analysis was restricted to mountain fall, rock fall and debris fall events

that are the predominant types of mass movements in the affected area (Fig. 7.2).

Fig. 7.1 Location of the mass movement events (represented by triangles), identified for empirical

analysis of geometrical parameters of mass movements, triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005

in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley and Neelum valley. The investigated area is

marked by the rectangular polygon.


139

7.3. Data source and methodology

Systematic field investigations were carried out after the identification of the mass movements on

SPOT images. The field data and SPOT images were used to map the events. A total of 103 rock

fall events were surveyed directly in the field for this analysis (Table 7.1). A mass movement

inventory, containing information of all geometrical parameters such as the volume, length, height,

surface area, deposit area, Fahrböschung angle, shadow angle and talus slope angle, needed for

statistical analysis was prepared (Appendix II). This inventory, produced from extensive ground-

based field work and SPOT satellite images, shows the locations and types of 103 mass

movements ranging in volume from 0.002 to 98 million cubic meters that occurred throughout an

area of approximately 1,299 km2.

Photographs of each event with full description (Appendix III) that also describes the type of the

mass movement have been taken. The description of the photographs preferably includes some

basic information about the event. Additionally, longitudinal profiles (Appendix III) that describe

the geometrical parameters of the event were prepared. Length (travel distance) and height (height

of fall) is likely to be measured from the longitudinal profiles fairly accurately. In contrast, the

average thickness has been estimated roughly at the deposit volume only and is mainly based on

the field assessment. The volumes of the rock falls were estimated by multiplying the deposit area

with an estimated average thickness. The volumes of the rock fall events that occurred along the

Jhelum river and the Neelum river were comparatively smaller than the actual rock mass displaced

from the scarp. This difference in volume was due to the erosion of the deposit material by the

river, especially during the flooding period. For mass movements with only small volumes it is

sometimes difficult to estimate the accurate volume due to hindrances like dense vegetation and

subsequent transportation of the material. In these cases the minimum estimate for the volume was

taken into account. Fahrböschung angle, shadow angle and talus slope angle were measured

directly in the field as well as verified from the longitudinal profiles. The surface area of the mass

movement is likely to be calculated accurately by using ArcGIS after interpretation of the mass

movement on SPOT images.


140

Fig. 7.2 Examples of rock falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, considered for

empirical analysis (Table 7.1). a) Battalian rock fall in the Jhelum vally, b) Makri rock fall in the

Muzaffarabad city, c) Nauseri rock fall in the Neelum valley, d) Devlian rock fall in Neelum

valley.


141

Table 7.1 Geometrical data of 103 mass movement events triggered by the Kashmir earthquake

2005, in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, the Jhelum valley and the Neelum valley, in northern

Pakistan.

Nr. Type L (m) H (m) D (m) V (10

6m

3) Tan α Tan ß Tan δ

1 MF 2,350 700 60 98.4 0.3 0.24 0.36

2 MF 486 355 15 3.105 0.72 0.62 0.67

3 MF 805 460 12 5.76 0.57 0.56 0.53

4 MF 950 600 20 6.75 0.7 - -

5 RF 650 410 5 0.25 0.62 0.53 0.64

6 RF 800 480 3 0.189 0.6 0.55 0.64

7 RF 392 292 6 0.156 ��75 0.62 0.62

8 RF 258 150 6 0.138 0.57 0.56 0.56

9 RF 248 187 4 0.128 0.75 - -

10 RF 625 450 5 0.125 0.72 0.42 -

11 RF 436 346 4 0.12 0.78 0.7 0.72

12 RF 446 290 5 0.12 0.65 0.48 0.6

13 RF 206 192 4 0.112 0.93 0.56 0.72

14 RF 266 260 6 0.108 0.96 0.73 0.73

15 RF 416 310 4 0.108 0.73 0.42 -

16 RF 350 282 3 0.105 0.81 0.62 0.67

17 RF 288 248 6 0.102 0.86 - -

18 RF 298 238 6 0.102 0.8 0.62 -

19 RF 406 306 4 0.100 0.75 - -

20 RF 250 228 10 0.100 0.9 0.72 0.72

21 DF 230 166 2 0.088 0.72 0.62 -

22 DF 570 525 2 0.080 0.93 - -

23 DF 360 244 5 0.075 0.67 0.48 -

24 DF 330 274 4 0.072 0.83 0.72 0.72

25 DF 364 232 3 0.069 0.64 0.46 0.53

26 DF 300 240 1 0.066 0.8 0.67 0.67

27 DF 520 332 4 0.06 0.64 0.4 0.48

28 DF 248 202 3 0.060 0.81 0.64 0.78

29 DF 230 186 6 0.060 0.8 0.44 0.44

30 DF 252 150 4 0.060 0.6 - -

31 DF 254 170 2 0.060 0.67 0.62 0.62

32 DF 162 104 5 0.050 0.64 0.3 -

33 DF 175 130 5 0.050 0.75 0.4 0.62

34 DF 366 290 4 0.044 0.78 0.57 0.64


142

35 DF 306 296 3 0.042 0.96 0.53 0.53

36 DF 258 180 4 0.040 0.7 0.48 0.53

37 DF 320 242 3 0.039 0.75 - -

38 DF 270 156 3 0.036 0.57 0.48 0.57

39 DF 256 166 2 0.036 0.64 0.57 0.67

40 DF 190 110 3 0.036 0.57 0.38 0.48

41 DF 420 350 5 0.035 0.83 - -

42 DF 415 315 5 0.035 0.75 0.53 0.53

43 DF 400 300 2 0.032 0.75 - -

44 DF 282 230 3 0.030 0.81 0.53 -

45 DF 325 293 5 0.030 0.9 0.57 0.57

46 DF 210 190 3 0.030 0.9 - -

47 DF 162 146 4 0.028 0.9 0.78 0.78

48 DF 298 222 2 0.026 0.74 0.62 0.62

49 DF 174 122 2 0.022 0.7 0.62 0.64

50 DF 398 300 2 0.022 0.75 - -

51 DF 270 232 2 0.018 0.86 0.67 0.78

52 DF 405 292 2 0.018 0.72 0.62 0.67

53 DF 332 206 3 0.018 0.62 0.38 0.38

54 DF 382 326 1 0.018 0.86 - -

55 DF 210 126 3 0.018 0.6 - -

56 DF 230 240 1 0.017 1.03 - -

57 DF 195 116 3 0.016 0.6 - -

58 DF 144 134 3 0.015 0.93 0.72 0.78

59 DF 294 206 3 0.014 0.7 0.44 0.56

60 DF 136 126 2 0.014 0.93 - -

61 DF 136 85 2 0.014 0.62 - -

62 DF 386 282 3 0.012 0.72 0.48 0.6

63 DF 160 144 3 0.012 0.9 0.62 0.67

64 DF 202 182 3 0.012 0.9 - -

65 DF 180 162 2 0.012 0.9 - -

66 DF 140 109 4 0.012 0.78 0.7 0.7

67 DF 446 332 2 0.012 0.75 0.32 -

68 DF 196 164 1 0.011 0.83 - -

69 DF 150 118 2 0.010 0.78 - -

70 DF 132 90 5 0.010 0.67 0.36 -

71 DF 110 86 2 0.010 0.78 - -

72 DF 208 194 1 0.010 0.93 - -

73 DF 218 240 3 0.009 1.11 - -


143

74 DF 218 250 2 0.009 1.15 - -

75 DF 198 143 3 0.009 0.72 - -

76 DF 200 166 2 0.009 0.83 0.62 -

77 DF 350 222 2 0.008 0.62 0.53 0.6

78 DF 86 80 3 0.008 0.93 0.57 -

79 DF 218 270 3 0.008 1.23 - -

80 DF 137 100 2 0.007 0.72 - -

81 DF 175 127 2 0.007 0.72 - -

82 DF 76 70 5 0.007 0.92 - -

83 DF 168 151 2 0.007 0.9 0.48 0.57

84 DF 75 70 4 0.007 0.93 - -

85 DF 128 106 2 0.006 0.83 - -

86 DF 126 109 4 0.006 0.86 - -

87 DF 354 230 1 0.005 0.64 - -

88 DF 185 172 2 0.005 0.93 0.4 -

89 DF 130 125 3 0.005 0.96 - -

90 DF 166 155 2 0.005 0.93 - -

91 DF 88 71 2 0.005 0.81 - -

92 DF 94 90 4 0.005 0.96 - -

93 DF 100 86 1 0.004 0.86 - -

94 DF 112 121 1 0.004 1.08 - -

95 DF 98 86 2 0.004 0.83 0.64 0.72

96 DF 126 86 3 0.003 0.68 - -

97 DF 124 104 2 0.003 0.86 0.72 0.72

98 DF 330 250 1 0.003 0.75 - -

99 DF 254 350 1 0.003 1.37 - -

100 DF 232 200 3 0.002 0.86 0.44 -

101 DF 110 163 3 0.002 1.48 - -

102 DF 120 160 2 0.002 1.33 - -

103 DF 178 110 2 0.002 0.62 0.55 0.72

MF: Mountain Fall, RF: Rock Fall, DF: Debris Fall, L: Travel distance, H: Height of fall,

D: Estimated depth, Tan α: Tangent of the Fahrböschung angle, Tan ß: Tangent of the shadow angle,

Tan σ: Tangent of the talus slope angle, V: Volume

Note: (-) indicate the values of Tan ß and Tan σ are missing because the values were not measured

in field due to very steep narrow valleys and human modification had altered the area during the road

construction after the earthquake.


144

7.4. Types of considered mass movements

The existing classifications of mass movements are based on different features like: process, type

of movement and activity, rate of movement, material involved, geometry, and morphology

(Varnes, 1978; Cruden and Varnes, 1996; Hungr et al., 2001).

A classification based on a volumetric nomenclature (Varnes, 1978 and Fell, 1994) for rock falls

was followed in this case, because our primary concern of rock fall classification involves travel

distance and Fahrböschung angle to explain the manner of progression of movement. The present

rock fall size classification based on a volumetric nomenclature has been used for the empirical

analysis (Table 7.2).

Table 7.2 Rock fall classification based on a volumetric nomenclature (after Varnes, 1978 and

Fell, 1994).

Types of falls Size Description Volume (m3) Description

Debris falls Very small <102 A large block or more than one block which may fragment during travel

Small 102 -103

Medium 103 - 104

Rock falls Large 104 -106 Free falling of rock

blocks of different size

or detached from the

rock slope

Mountain falls Extremely large >106 Fall, slide or avalanche

which may travel a

considerable distance

In general, rock fall, debris fall and mountain fall are defined as a rapid movement of rocks

triggered by earthquake, heavy rain or gravity forces from steep slopes in mountain areas. These

phenomena are a subsection of more general mass movement terms which include falls, slides and

slumps in all types of the material from hard rock material to unconsolidated or poor cemented

materials (Varnes, 1978; Keefer, 1999).

The term rock fall is characterized by the failure of relatively steep rock slopes or cliffs along a

surface where little or no shear displacement takes place (Varnes, 1978). In general, rock falls

involve a direct downward movement and small to medium detachments (104 – 106 m3), although


145

there is no well defined volume limit (Evans and Hungr, 1993). The low magnitude rock fall (<

104 m3) termed as debris fall (Varnes, 1978), is distinguished from a large rock fall (< 106 m3).

Extremely large rock falls (> 106 m3) are termed as mountain fall. The process is called sturzstrom

(Heim, 1932) or rock avalanche (Varnes, 1978; Keefer, 1984, 1999).

In this study, a large number of mass movements having a volume less than one million cubic

meters and only few mass movements having a volume greater than one million cubic meters are

analysed. The biggest mass movement has a volume of about 98 million cubic meters. For the

simplicity, rock falls have been further classified based on volume (Varnes, 1978 and Fell 1994;

Table 7.3)

Table 7.3 Classification of fall-types based on volume and number of mass movements.

Types of

falls

Size

Description

Volume in

million (m3)

Number

of falls

Fahrböschung

angle

Shadow

angle

Talus

slope

angle

Travel

distance

range

(m)

Debris

falls

Very small 0.002-

0.005

11 32º-56º 24º-36º 36º 94-330

Small .005-0.050 59 32º-49º 18º-38º 21º-

38º

88-446

Medium .05-0.10 13 33º-43º 17º-36º 24º-

38º

162-570

Rock falls Large 0.1-0.25 16 31º-44º 23º-36º 27º-

36º

250-800

Mountain

falls

Extremely

large

>1 4 17º-36º 486-

2,350

7.5. Geometrical parameters considered for empirical analysis

In this study, the geometrical parameters considered for the empirical analysis of mass movements

triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 are Fahrböschung angle (Heim, 1932), shadow angle

(Lied, 1977; Evans and Hungr, 1993) and talus slope angle (Evans and Hungr, 1993) as presented

in Fig. 7.3. The term L refers to the travel distance or corresponding horizontal distance which is

the horizontal projection of the line connected from the source point of the mass movement and

the farthest block. The term H is the height of fall or elevation difference between the highest point

and lowest point of the mass movement (Fig. 7.3). The ratio H/L is defined as the tangent of the


146

Fahrböschung angle, the termed H/L ratio, is the ratio between the height of the fall and the travel

distance. Various geometrical approaches are related to the mass movement failure as shown in

Fig. 7.3.

Fig. 7.3 Sketch of mass movement source point, falling mass and deposit. Definitions of

parameters used in the present analysis are explained in text. Sketch is modified from Evans and

Hungr (1993) and Copons et al., (2009).

7.5.1. Fahrböschung angle

An important empirical approach is the Fahrböschung angle (Heim, 1932) or travel angle. The

Fahrböschung angle is the line connecting from the highest point of the mass movement scarp to

the distal margin of the displaced mass (Fig. 7.3). Various scientists referred this line by several

other names: angle of the equivalent coefficient of friction (Shreve, 1968), travel angle (Hungr,

1990; Cruden and Varnes, 1996), reach angle (Corominas, 1996), and travel distance angle

(Hunter and Fell, 2003).

Initially, the Fahrböschung angle method was widely adopted only for rock avalanches

(Scheidegger, 1973; Erismann and Abele, 2001). Later, Corominas (1996), Devoli et al., (2009)

and Copons et al., (2009) used the same approach for all types of large and small scale mass

movement events. Scheidegger (1973) reported negative linear relationship between volume and

Fahrböschung angle of 33 large scale mass movements. He noted the Fahrböschung angle

decreases with the increase of the volume. Therefore, larger mass movements display lower angle

of reach as compared to smaller ones, and due to this reason they were considered to be more


147

mobile. Corominas (1996) analyzed the similar relationship for 204 small and large scale mass

movements. He established the logarithmic relationship between mass movement volume and

Fahrböschung angle and shows a continuous decrease in angle of reach with increasing volume.

A similar relationship between volume of mass movement and Fahrböschung angle has also been

proposed by several other authors in various studies (Voight et al., 1983; McEwen, 1989;

Corominas, 1996;; Erismann and Abele, 2001; Legors, 2002; Hunter and Fell, 2003; Rickenmann,

2005; Devoli et al., 2009 and Copons et al., 2009). These studies showed also that the

Fahrböschung angle decreases, when the volume of the mass movement increases (>1x 105m3),

while, a constant coefficient of friction (0.57-0.83) can be assumed for smaller volumes of mass

movements. However, the limit of the mass movement volume has been revised by Hsü (1975),

and fixed to 0.5 x 106 m3. The value of the coefficient of friction is about equal to 0.6 for all types

of mass movements with smaller volumes. Corominas et al., (1988) also reported relatively low

reach angles for some of the mass movements ranging from few hundred cubic meters to several

thousand cubic meters in volume.

In contrary, opposite conclusion has been derived by Skermer (1985). He found no relationship

between the Fahrböschung angle and the volume of the mass movement. He suggested that the

height of the fall corresponds to the larger mobility of the mass movement instead of

Fahrböschung angle. Li (1983), Nicoletti and Sorriso-Valvo (1991) also found a similar

relationship between the height of the fall and the travel distance, but they suggested this

correlation is not applicable because the height of fall is not known in advance.

Different theories have been proposed by previous researchers to explain the phenomena of long

travel distance for the large mass movements, but none of them is consistent apparently with each

other (Van Gassen and Cruden, 1989; Melosh, 1986). The volume dependence of the

Fahrböschung angle has been questioned by many researchers for large scale mass movements

(Hsü 1975, Hungr, 1990) and small scale mass movements (Hunter and Fell, 2003). These

researches show that there is still a lack of agreement between researchers, and opposite

conclusion has been derived from these simple relations.

7.5.2. Shadow angle

An alternative approach followed by Lied (1977) is the shadow angle. The term shadow angle is

the line between the farthest block of deposit and the apex of the talus slope (Fig. 7.3). Lied (1979)

and Evans & Hungr (1993) described that the kinetic energy by rock blocks during their fall along

the trajectories is largely lost in the first impact on the talus slope, but this assumption is only

possible for small rock falls (<105 m3).


148

Previous scientists suggested several values of shadow angle in the existing literature. Evans &

Hungr (1993) suggested a value of 27º.5 after analyzing 16 rock falls in British Columbia.

Whereas, Lied (1977) proposed that the value can range from 28º to 30º. Wieczorek et al., (1999,

2008) proposed a shadow angle of 22º for Yosemite valley rock falls.

Domaas (1994) reported a smallest value of shadow angle of about 17º, whereas, Holm and Jakob

(2009) proposed a minimum shadow angle of 21º below a talus slope with fine debris. However,

they suggested that minimum shadow angle values are not applicable to other areas with different

lithological characteristics.

Copons et al. (2009) reported shadow angle values of 27º for the Sola d’ Andorra slope in Spain.

They indicated an inverse correlation between the size of the small rock falls (<100 m3) and the

travel distance by means of shadow angle. However, their plotted data have a high degree of

scattering.

7.5.3. Talus slope angle

There is another approach followed by Lied (1977), and Evans & Hungr (1993) is talus slope

angle. They have used the talus slope angle for the analysis of the nature of rock fall deposition.

The talus slope angle is the line between the lowest point and the apex of the talus slope (Fig. 7.3).

Evans & Hungr (1993) concluded approximately 38º talus slope angle for fine talus deposit,

however, lower down the talus deposit angle ranges from 32º-38º.

7.6. Analysis of Kashmir earthquake 2005 mass movement data

In this study empirical approaches are used to investigate the relationship between the geometrical

parameters and the travel distance of the mass movement events. The effect of different parameters

such as mass movement volume, Fahrböschung angle, shadow angle, talus slope angle, height of

fall are investigated to find a relationship to the travel distance of the mass movements. In total

103 mass movement events ranging in volume from 0.002 to 98.0 million cubic meters were

investigated for this study. Most of the mass movements were smaller in size (< 106 m3). Big and

little mass movements are included in the analysis to observe the influence of the different

volumes. Different mechanisms of failure, types of movement, rock types, and geomorphological

conditions were considered for this analysis. The relationship between the mass movement travel

distance and different parameters (volume, Fahrböschung angle, shadow angle, talus slope angle,

height of fall and surface area) were analyzed and presented in the form of empirical relationships.

The data are then compared with those published in earlier studies.


149

7.7. Results of analysis

7.7.1. Relationship between mass movement volume and Fahrböschung angle for all types of

mass movements

In order to determine the relationship between the Fahrböschung angle and the mass movement

volume, an analysis of 103 mass movement events, was taken into account. These mass movement

events include mountain fall, very large and large rock falls, medium, small and very small debris

falls ranging in volume from 0.002 to 98 million cubic meters (Tables 7.1 and 7.2). In this

analysis, a large number of events with volumes less than 0.1 million cubic meters has been

included (Table 7.3). Most of the events triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 have smaller

volumes, which represents an important limitation for this analysis.

Fig. 7.4 shows the relationship between the mass movement volume and the tangent of the

Fahrböschung angle for all types of mass movement events. Volumes versus log tangent of the

Fahrböschung values were plotted and results are presented. The values of tan α and volumes

plotted in a log–log plot ranged from 0.30 to 1.48 (log tan α – 0.52 to 0.17) and 0.002 to 98 million

cubic meters (log V-2.80 to 1.99), respectively.

A significant number of mass movement events with volumes less than 0.1 x 106 possess higher

values of tan α from 0.57 to 1.48 (log tan α – 0.24 to 0. 17), which mostly occurred in

Muzaffarabad and the surrounding areas along the Neelum river and the Jhelum river. For

instance, the events number 99, 101 and 102 having volumes less than 0.003 x 106 m3 (log v -2.59,

-2.62, -2.80) plotted in the left upper part of the plot on Fig. 7.4. These events display extremely

higher values of the tan α 1.37, 1.48, and 1.33 (log tan α 0.14, 0.17, 0.12). In contrary mass

movements that occurred in tributaries plotted in the left lower part of the plot had display lower

values of tan α as compared to the mass movements occurred along rivers. This may indicate the

deep incision of the Neelum and Jhelum rivers as compared to their tributaries with higher slope

angles towards to the rivers.


150

Log tan α= -0.066 log V - 0.210

R2 = 0.29

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

Log mass movement volume (106 m

3)

Lo

g t

an

Fa

hrb

ösc

hu

ng

All types of mass movements

Fig. 7.4 Relationship between log tangent of the Fahrböschung and log mass movement volume

for all investigated rock and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

Moreover, in the dataset it can be observed, that the mass movements with larger volumes show

also higher values of tan α in some cases. For example, event no 2, 3 and 4 having volumes of 3.1

x 106 m3, 5.7 x 1 06 m3 and 6.7 x 1 06 m3 (log v 0.49, 0.76, 0.83) possess tan α values of 0.72, 0.57,

0.70 (log tan α -0.14, -0.24, -0.15) respectively, which are tremendously high (Table 7.1; Fig. 7.4).

These higher values of tan α may also be explained by the increasing influence of other factors

than volume such as the failure in a very steep slope and that the material will continue to move

until it reaches in the eroding river. However, these mass movements are several rock faces at one

location and difficult to distinguish with each other, so these mass movements were considered a

single event for this analysis.

Likewise, it was observed that the small volume of the mass movements varies the Fahrböschung

angle as low as the large volume of the mass movement. For example, event 103 has a value of tan

α = 0.62 for a volume of 0.002 x 106 m3, which is similar to the tan α of the event 5 (tan α = 0.62)

for a volume of 0.25 x 106 m3 (Table 7.1).

With respect to the topographical constraint and lithostratigraphic characteristics of the area, the

mass movements moving down the steep paths along the Neelum and Jhelum rivers are consider

less mobile and achieve higher Fahrböschung angle values. However, the Hattian Bala rock


151

avalanche with volume of 98 million cubic meters was found to be very mobile and displayed a

low Fahrböschung angle value of about 17º (tan α = 0.30).

For the data set of 103 events, the following empirical relationship has been obtained by using a

regression equation:

Log tan α = -0.066 log V - 0.210

Where tan α is defined here as has been earlier described in Fig. 7.3, the volume V is expressed in

cubic meters. The equation has a coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.29) and a coefficient of

correlation (r = -0.54). The standard error of the regression equation is 0.07.

In this relationship as shown in Fig. 7.4, the distribution of the data is rather scattered, but

reasonable, because all mass movements are integrated. However, these mass movements have

different type and mechanisms that can influence the travel distance.

The analysis shows there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between the tangent of the

Fahrböschung values and of the mass movement volumes. The coefficient of determination (R2 =

0.29) shows a minor correlation, than indicated in the previously published relations.

The results obtained may indicate that the volume of the mass movement had not such a strong

influence on the travel distance of the mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005,

may be because of the very high relief of the area.

7.7.2. Relationship between the mass movement volume and Fahrböschung angle for

individual groups of mass movements

To understand the effect of volume on Fahrböschung angle for each individual groups of rock

falls, the dataset of 103 mass movement events was split into different individual groups of rock

falls to be analyzed separately. The whole dataset was split mainly into rock falls and debris falls

based on the volume of the mass movements (Varnes, 1978 and Fell, 1994; Table 7.2). Moreover,

rock falls were further classified into extremely large and large rock falls. While, debris falls were

classified into medium, small and very small debris falls.

The mountain falls group ranging the Fahrböschung angles values from 17º-36º having volume

>1 x 106 m3, whereas, rock falls group has Fahrböschung angles ranging from 31º -44º with

volumes > 0.1-0.25 x 106 m3, while, the debris falls group belongs to Fahrböschung angles ranging

from 32º -56º having volumes < 0.1 x 106 m3 (Fig. 7.5, Table 7.3) .


152

Fig. 7.5 Fahrböschung angles and travel distances of individual groups of rock and debris falls

triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

In this analysis, the group of extremely large rock falls contains four large scale mass movements

having volumes > 1 x 106 m3 including the event of Hattian Bala (see detail in section 5.6.2) with a

Fahrböschung angle of 17º. The other three very large rock falls (> 1 x 106 m3) were also

reactivated during the earthquake and occurred along the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault and close

to the epicenter region (see detail in section 5.6.3-5). However, these rock falls display higher

Fahrböschung angle values ranging from 32º -36º.

The group of large rock falls (<1 x 106 m3) are mostly found along the Neelum river and the

Jhelum river and their tributaries. These large rock falls occurred in a variety of geological

settings, some are associated with the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault. The steeper Fahrböschung

angle in the dataset belongs to the group of debris falls with smaller volumes (<1 x 104 m3; Fig.

7.5). These debris falls occurred mainly nearby rivers, streams, roads and on low altitude areas.

The tangent of the Fahrböschung values were plotted versus the volumes of each individual groups

of rock falls and debris falls in a log – log plot (Fig. 7.6). The coefficient of regression analysis for

each individual group and their statistical information are presented in Table 7.4. The regression

equations for each group are as follows.


153

Extremely large rock falls log tan α = -0.257 log V -0.004

R2 = 0.93

Large rock falls log tan α = -0.405 log V -0.489

R2 = 0.45

Medium debris falls log tan α = 0.250 log V + 0.158

R2 = 0.10

Small debris falls log tan α = -0.081 log V -0.244

R2 = 0.09

Very small debris falls log tan α = -0.271 log V -0.720

R2 = 0.08

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00


3)

Lo

g t

an

Fa

hrb

ösc

hu

ng

Extremely large rock falls

Large rock falls

Medium debris falls

Small debris falls

Very small debris falls

Fig. 7.6 Relationship between tangent of the Fahrböschung and volume for extremely large rock

falls, large rock falls, medium debris falls, small debris falls, and very small debris falls.

The analysis shows the linear trend and an existing correlation between the tangent of the

Fahrböschung values and the volume of the large groups of rock falls (Fig. 7.6; Table 7.4).

Unfortunately, only four large scale mass movements were included for the analysis of the group

of extremely large rock falls (> 1 X 106 m3). This represents an important limitation in statistical

analysis for the group of very large rock falls. However, 16 rock fall events represented for the

group of large rock falls shows a good correlation (Table 7.4).


154

On the other hand, there is no clear correlation between the tangent of the Fahrböschung angle and

the debris falls with smallest volumes (<1 x 104 m3; Table 7.4). In addition, debris falls with

smaller volume (less than 0.003 x 10 6 m3) show the highest value of Fahrböschung angle, above

45º (tan α of 1.0) Figs. 7.5 and 7.6. This indicates that the trend of the mobility increases with

increasing volume, which has been previously accepted by many researchers. However, the travel

distance of debris falls with small volumes (<1 x 104 m3 ) varies and also depends upon to other

characteristics such as slope characteristic (Corominas et al., 1990), downhill path (Nicoletti and

Sorriso-Valvo, 1991; Corominas, 1996) and disintegration of the failure debris (Corominas, 1996;

Okura et al., 2000; Erismann and Abele, 2001).

Table 7.4 Results of the linear regression analysis of tangent of the Fahrböschung versus the mass

movement volume of individual rock fall groups.

Mass

movement

types

N V A B r R2 Se Comments

All mass movements

103 0.002-98 -0.210 -0.066 -0.54 0.29 0.07 Minor correlation


4 1.3-98.0 -0.257 -0.004 -0.96 0.93 0.05 Strong correlation

Large rock falls

16 0.1-0.25 -0.489 -0.405 -0.67 0.45 0.05 Good correlation

Medium debris falls

13 0.05-0.1 0.158 0.250 -0.31 0.10 0.07 No correlation

Small debris falls

59 0.005-0.05

0.244 -0.081 0.30 0.09 0.07 No correlation


11 0.002-0.005

-0.720 -0.271 -0.29 0.07 0.12 No correlation

Note: N, number of mass movements; V= volume in million m3; A and B, value of

regression coefficients; r, coefficient of correlation; R2, coefficient of determination; Se,

standard error

7.7.3. Relationship between mass movement volume versus shadow angle and talus slope

angle

An empirical approach is an effective method for estimating the approximate travel distance from

rock-slope failures of a volume well below that of large rock avalanches (< 106 m3). For the mass

movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, an empirical approach proposed by Evans


155

and Hungr (1993) has been used to establish the relationship between the travel distance and the

slope failure for mass movements having volumes less than 1 x 106 m3.

The mass movement data used for this relationship were obtained during the field survey. At most

locations in the field, large accumulations of deposits from rock falls made it easy to measure the

shadow angles and the talus slope angles. However, this determination was more difficult in the

very steep narrow Neelum valley and Jhelum valley. Moreover, after the Kashmir earthquake

2005, human modification had altered the areas during road construction. As a consequence, only

those mass movement events were considered for this empirical approach, where all geometrical

parameters were measured directly as well as accurately during the field survey. Therefore on 55

mass movement events the exact shadow angle and on 41 mass movement events the exact talus

slope angle were ascertained for this analysis (Table 7.1).

The overall mean shadow angle is 28.6º for the selected mass movement events. Whereas, overall

mean talus slope angle is 32.2º for the selected mass movement events. The individual values of

the shadow angles vary from 17°-38º and the values for the talus slope angles vary from 21°-38º

(Table 7.3). The smallest shadow angle was observed to be about 17º for event no 32. The highest

value was noted to be about 38º for events no 47 and 51(Appendix II).

Similarly, the smallest talus slope value was found to be about 21º for event no 53, whereas, the

higher value was observed with about 38º for events no 28, 47, 51 and 58 (Appendix II). Most of

the mass movement events display similar values of shadow angle and talus slope angle, as the

deposit of the talus slope was accumulated near the rivers or streams.

The regression analysis was performed for the relationship between the shadow angle, talus slope

angle and the volumes (Figs. 7.7 and 7.8). The results of the analysis do not show a clear

relationship (R2 = 0.006) between volume and the distance traveled by means of shadow angle and

talus slope angle. Statistically, there is insignificant correlation. Moreover, the overall data are

highly scattered and very irregularly distributed (Figs. 7.7 and 7.8). The scattering of the data is

probably caused due to mass movements moving down the steep paths. It is not possible to find a

clear dependency between the volume of these talus slope deposits and the travel distance by

means of shadow angle and talus slope angle for this data set.


156

-0.55

-0.50

-0.45

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50


3)

Lo

g t

an

sh

ad

ow

an

gle


Fig. 7.7 Relationship between log tangent of the shadow angle and volume of 55 selected events

for all types of rock and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

-0.45

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50


3)

Lo

g t

an

ta

lus

slo

pe a

ng

le


Fig. 7.8 Relationship between log of the tangent of the talus slope angle and volume of 41 selected

events for all types of rock and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.


157

7.7.4. Relationship between the Fahrböschung angle and the height of fall

To consider the effect of height of fall on Fahrböschung angle, a plot of tangent of the

Fahrböschung values against the height of fall is presented in Fig. 7.9. The values of Fahrböschung

angle (tan α) and height of fall ranged from 0.3-1.48 and 70-700 m respectively. For the majority

of the falls the Fahrböschung angle (tan α) is ranging from 0.6-1.0 and the heights of fall are

ranging between 70-300 m. (Table 7.1). It can be observed that extremely large rock falls and large

rock falls display a range of tan α values from 0.3 to 0.64 having a height of fall between 150-700

m. Medium, small and very small debris falls show values of tan α from 0.64-1.48 having a height

of fall between 70-525 m.

Statistically, there is no clear relationship (R2 = 0.03) between tangent of the Fahrböschung values

and height of fall. This indicates that the height of fall has no control directly on the travel

distance. However, it was observed that events with large height of fall travel also long horizontal

distances, but not necessarily display a lower Fahrböschung angle value. For example, event 4, the

Panjgran slump and rock fall traveled a horizontal distance of about 950 m with a height of fall of

600 m and displayed a Fahrböschung angle value of about 35º. Therefore, probably the height of

fall may affect indirectly controlling parameters of travel distance.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

Tan Fahrböschung

Hei

gh

t o

f fa

ll (

m)


Large rock falls

Medium debris falls

Small debris falls


Fig. 7.9 Relationship between tangent of the Fahrböschung and the height of fall for all types of

mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.


158

7.7.5. Relationship between the height of fall (H) and the travel distance (L)

The analysis of 20 rock falls (extremely large and large) and 83 debris falls (medium, small and

very small) was done to determine the relationship between the height of the fall and the travel

distance (Table 7.1 and 7.3). Height of fall (H) versus travel distance (L) values was plotted on a

log-log plot (Figs. 7.10 and 7.11). The height of fall and travel distance values ranged from 150 m

to 700 m (log 2.18-log 2.85) and 206 m to 2350 m (log 2.31-log 3.37) for rock falls respectively,

whereas, the values for the debris falls ranged from 70 m to 525 m (log 1.85-log 2.72) and 75 m to

570 m (log 1.88-log 2.76) respectively. For the data set of 20 rock fall events (Fig. 10) the standard

least square regression analysis give the empirical relationship:

Log L = 1.400 log H – 0.848

The equation has a coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.88 and a coefficient of correlation (r) of

0.94, where L and H are in meters. The standard error (Se ) is 0.08.

Log L = 1.400 log H - 0.848

R2 = 0.88

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00

Log height of fall (m)

Lo

g t

ravel

dis

tan

ce (

m)

All types of rock falls

Fig. 7.10 Relationship between the log height of the fall (H) and the log travel distance (L) for 20

all types of rock falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.


159

For the data set of 83 debris fall events (Fig. 7.11), a best fit regression equation is obtained to:

Log L = 0.953 log H + 0.195

The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.83. The coefficient of correlation (r) is 0.91. The

standard error (Se) is 0.08.

Log L = 0.953 log H + 0.195

R2 = 0.83

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

Log height of fall (m)

Lo

g t

ra

vel

dis

tan

ce (

m)

All types of debris falls

Fig. 7.11 Relationship between the log height of fall (H) and the log travel distance (L) for 83 all

types of debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

An analysis of the data shows that the travel distance is proportional to the height of fall for both

types (rock falls and debris falls) of mass movements (Figs. 7.10 and 7.11). This indicates that

there is a linear trend between the height of the fall and travel distance, as shown by the significant

positive relationships between the height of fall and travel distance for rock falls (R2 = 0.88,) and

debris falls (R2 = 0.83)

Available data were examined to identify the important factors that could influence the correlation

between travel distance and height of fall. Events with similar height of fall or similar volumes

were compared. The events 21, 39 (Table 7.1) occurred at the same height of fall of 166 m, but the

travel distance was different for each event. Similar are the case for events no 40 and 103.


160

In the other hand, the Fahrböschung angle is also considered to affect the travel distance for rock

falls and debris falls in this analysis (Fig. 7.12). It has been clearly observed that mass movements

with the same Fahrböschung angle have different travel distances like events 3, 38 and 40.

Additionally long travel distances have been observed, when the rock fall passage ended in a

channel like surface indicating that geomorphologic control may be necessary to full explain

excess travel distance phenomena. This was for example observed by the events 43, 62, 77 (Table

7.1). The investigation shows that beside the volume, several other factors such as height of fall,

length, and Fahrböschung angle may have an influence on the observed travel distances.

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Travel distance (m)

Ta

n F

ah

rb

ösc

hu

ng

All types of rock falls

All types of debris falls

Fig. 7.12 Relationship between tangent of the Fahrböschung and the travel distance (L) for all

types of rock falls and debris falls triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

7.7.6. Relationship between surface area and volume of mass movements

In general, the larger the surface area of a mass movement, it is also likely to have a larger volume.

Therefore, an analysis of 103 mass movement events was done to determine the relationship

between the volume and surface area. Fig. 7.13 shows the values of the different surface areas and

volumes plotted on a log-log graph ranging from 0.003 to 2.02 km2 (log -2.52 to 0.31) and from

0.002 to 98 million m3 (log -5.80 to -1.01) respectively. The best fit equation obtained from the

least square regression analysis is:


161

Log A = 0.584 log V + 1.0537

The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.79. The area A is in km2 and the volume V in km3

respectively. The standard error of the estimate is 0.23.

An analysis of the data reveals that there is a significant positive correlation (R2 = 0.79) between

the surface area and the volume of the mass movements. This indicates that the volume of the

mass movements increases proportionally to the surface area. The high standard error may indicate

the significant difference in variables. A similar relationship was found by Dortch et al., (2008) for

large landslides in the Himalayan region.

Log A = 0.5845log V + 1.0537

R2 = 0.7899

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

-7.00 -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00

Log volume (km3)

Lo

g a

rea

(k

m2)

All types of mass

movements

Fig. 7.13 Relationship between log surface area and log mass movement volume for all types of

mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005.

7.8. Comparison between international published data and own results

The relationship between the mass movement volume and Fahrböschung angle was studied by

Scheidegger (1973). Erismann & Abele (2001) studied this relationship especially for large rock

falls and rock avalanches. Corominas (1996) studied this relationship for all types of events

ranging from volume 102 - 108 m3 in the Eastern Pyrenees, northern Spain. A more recent similar

study was done by Devoli et al., (2009) for mass movements in the Central American countries for


162

all types of the landslides in volcanic and non-volcanic environments. Furthermore, Copons et al.,

(2009) analyzed small rock falls by using empirical models in southern Spain.

In order to understand the consistency of Kashmir earthquake 2005 data set with those published

in earlier studies in the different parts of the world the data published in several references were

collected and plotted on a log – log graph in Figs. 7.14 and 7.15. The used data are from

Scheidegger, 1973; Corominas, 1996; Legros, 2002; Erismann & Abele, 2003; Okura et al., 2003;

Devoli et al., 2009 and Copons et al., 2009). In total 509 events of rock falls, debris falls, rock

avalanches, debris avalanches, landslides, and debris flow were considered to show the

relationship between volume and the Fahrböschung angle. The 103 events triggered by the

Kashmir earthquake 2005 were also included in this analysis. However, different mechanisms and

environments have to be considered for the different types of these mass movements.

Fig. 7.14 shows the relationship between tangent of the Fahrböschung and volume of the mass

movements only for rock falls and rock avalanches from previously published data (Scheidegger,

1973; Erismann and Abele, 2001; Copons et al., 2009) compared with the Kashmir earthquake

2005 data set. Despite the diversity of the data and the differing mechanisms the results show a

tendency of a decrease of the Fahrböschung angle (tan α) with the increase of the volume of the

mass movements. This shows that the volume of the mass movement has a strong effect on travel

distance (Fig. 7.14).

Fig. 7.14 show that most of the scattered data near the left top of the plot belongs to the small rock

falls of Copons et al., (2009). The representing points of the large rock avalanches (Scheidegger,

1973; Erismann and Abele, 2001) are concentrated in the lower right part of the plot. Due to the

larger volumes of these large rock avalanches possess low tan α values which significantly reduced

scatter of the plot. The Kashmir earthquake 2005 data set involves mass movements with different

volumes from small rock falls to large rock avalanches The representing points are concentrated in

the middle of the plot. This means mass movements with smaller volumes are represent in more

scattered point clouds on the top left area of the plot as compared to the mass movements with

high volumes represented in the lower right part of the plot.

The Kashmir earthquake data set shows the higher values of tangent of the Fahrböschung similar

to Copons et al., (2009) data set. While, the data set of Scheidegger (1973), Erismann and Abele

(2001) shows the lower values of tangent of the Fahrböschung. This is may be due to the smaller

volume rock falls of Kashmir earthquake data set which have a different dynamic motion than the

larger one (>106 m3), as already accepted by many researchers (Corominas, 1996; Erismann and

Abele, 2001).


163

The analysis of the Kashmir earthquake data set reveals that there is weak or minor correlation (R2

= 29) between volume of mass movement and Fahrböschung angle (tan α), while those plotted by

Scheidegger (1973) and Copons et al., (2009) having coefficients of correlation (R2) ranging from

0.73 to 0.49). However, there is not much difference of correlation (R2 = 0.35) for the data set of

Erismann & Abele (2001) for large scale mass movements. This indicates that not only the volume

of the mass movement is influencing the travel distance.

Fig. 7.14 Relationship between log tangent of the Fahrböschung and log mass movement volume.

Comparison between the data of Scheidegger (1973), Erismann & Abele (2001), Copons et al.,

(2009) and the dataset of Kashmir earthquake 2005.

Fig. 7.15 compares the values of tangent of the Fahrböschung angle (tan α) versus volume of the

mass movements from international data set (Scheidegger, 1973;; Erismann and Abele, 2001;

Legros, 2002; Okura et al., 2003; Corominas, 1996; Devoli et al., 2009; Copons et al., 2009) with

the Kashmir earthquake 2005 data set. The international data include all types of mass movements

such as rock falls, rock avalanches, debris avalanches and landslides with different causes of

failures. While, the Kashmir earthquake data set considers only rock falls triggered by the

earthquake.


164

For mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, the best fit equation obtained by

using least square regression analysis gives the empirical relationship Log tan α = -0.066 log V -

0.210 having a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.29, whereas the best fit equation obtained for

Corominas data is tan α = -0.085 log V -0.047 with a coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.62. The

best fit equation obtained for all international data is log tan α = -0.091 log V -0.816 having a

coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.34

The analysis shows the linear negative correlation between the volumes of the mass movements

and the Fahrböschung angles (tan α) values for all data sets.

As shown in Fig. 7.15, the representing points of the Kashmir earthquake dataset show higher

Fahrböschung angles compared for example with the dataset of Corominas (1996). A possible

reason can be, that the seismic triggering affected the travel distance of the mass movements of

Kashmir earthquake.

Comparing the international data set with Kashmir earthquake 2005 data set, the international data

fit and Kashmir earthquake data fit show similar trends (Fig. 7.15). The international data set

included a large number of mass movement events with large volume but with different

mechanisms of failure. Therefore, comparison of data sets shows the high scattered values for

larger mass movements as compared to the smaller ones (Fig. 7.15). This is totally different to the

results shown in Fig. 7.14, when we compared only rock fall and rock avalanche data sets. This

means beside the volume of the mass movements there are several other factors such as types of

mass movements, material involved and geological conditions affecting the scattering of the data.

Based on the observation of the different data sets, it can be concluded that the empirical

relationship suggested in earlier studies is mainly consistent with the data set of Kashmir

earthquake 2005. However, the Kashmir earthquake data set displays higher values of

Fahrböschung angle as compared to previous published data. Only Hattian Bala rock avalanche

shows a lower Fahrböschung angle, which is consistent with the earlier studies dealing with large

volume rock falls and rock avalanches.


165

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

-10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00

Lo

g t

an

Fah

rbö

sch

un

g

Log mass movement Volume (km3)

International dataKashmir earthquake data

Corominas, 1996

International data fit

Kashmir earthquake data fit

Corominas, 1996 data fit

Fig. 7.15 Relationship between log tangent of the Fahrböschung and log mass movement volume.

Comparison between international data and own data set (Kashmir earthquake 2005 data).

Chapter: 8 Conclusions and recommendations

166

Conclusions and recommendations

8.1. Conclusions

The Kashmir earthquake 2005 triggered a number of mass movements resulting in a great damage

and fatality in the Kashmir region, the northern part of Pakistan. The present analysis shows that in

the future more investigations are demanded on earthquake triggered mass movements, their

mechanism, characterization and distribution in order to improve the hazard assessment and

reconstruction process. The present study deals with the mass movement distribution,

characterization, and behaviour in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, Jhelum valley and Neelum

valley. A number of conclusions drawn from this study are as follows:

• The mass movement concentration is mainly depending on the distance from the

earthquake source rather than on topographical parameters and on geological units.

• The highest mass movement concentration (3.73 mass movements / km2) was found at

slope angle ranging from 31 – 40º. Moreover, the mass movement concentration was high

(1.7 mass movement / km2) at elevations between 1000–1500 m. In addition, the preferred

orientations of mass movements were towards southerly directions.

• The distribution of mass movements varies among different geological units. However, the

mass movement concentration is much higher in Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation (5.13

mass movements / km2). This might be due to the highly fractured dolomites on the

hanging wall block along the brittle shear zone of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault.

• The empirical analysis showed that the Fahrböschung angle depends to some extent on the

volume. However, other factors such as slope steepness, very high relief of the area and

geological conditions can also affect the mass movement travel distance.

• Mass movements with only small volumes have variable values of Fahrböschung angle.

• No clear correlation was found between the Fahrböschung angle and the volumes of very

small debris falls.

• A linear trend with strong correlation exists between the height of fall and travel distance

for rock falls (R2 = 0.88) and debris falls (R2 = 0.83).

• The height of fall does not affect the Fahrböschung angle values.

• The empirical analyses show no relationship between the volume of the mass movements

and the travel distance by means of shadow angle and talus slope angle.

• The comparisons of Kashmir earthquake data with previously published data of the other

parts of the world are mainly consistent.


167

• In the case study of Hattian Bala rock avalanche, the analysis leads to the conclusion that

the geometry and failure mode of this mass movement were strongly controlled by

tectonics and lithology, bedding parallel slip, southeast plunging synclinal structure and

pre-existing mass movements.

• In the case study of Neelidandi and Langarpura rock falls which were reactivated on the

hanging wall block of the reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault, the pattern of the mass

movements suggests that the existence of previous mass movements favoured the

triggering during the earthquake.

• In the case study of reactivated Panjgran slump and rock fall the mass movement followed

the pre-existing escarpment failure. The mass movement is the result of a pre-existing

slump situated on an over steepened slope undercut by the Neelum river.

8.2. Recommendations

In the light of the above conclusions, the following recommendations are made:

1. The national and international scientific community working in Pakistan Administrated

Kashmir, investigating mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005 should

provide a reliable systematic digital mass movement data base including economic and

human losses.

2. Mass movement inventory maps of the entire part of Pakistan Administrated Kashmir

should be prepared on ground based field investigations.

3. A detailed geological, structural and geotechnical mapping around the epicenter region and

reactivated Muzaffarabad Fault should be prepared.

4. Susceptibility maps and hazard maps should be prepared for future land use planning.

5. Many mass movements caused the disruption of the infrastructure in the affected part of

Pakistan Administrated Kashmir. The Highway department of Azad Jammu and Kashmir

government should come forward with scientific and technical backup for mass movement

control and management.

6. The centralized government institution should be established to provide better coordination

among various national and international scientific organizations to avoid duplicate efforts

for the mass movement investigation.

7. The Institute of Geology, university of Azad Jammu and Kashmir should establish the

discipline of disaster and mass movement studies. The discipline should conduct the


168

research to improve the performance of mass movement data analysis by using most

appropriate methods and numerical modeling.

8. Efforts should be made to raise the public awareness of earthquake and mass movement

dangers in the Kashmir region.

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169

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Appendices