The European Foundry Association - bbcmbbbcmb.org/content/news/files/Konjunktur-03-2017-CAEF1.pdf · The European Foundry Association CAEF General Engineering Section Meeting Düsseldorf

- 1 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu

The European Foundry Association CAEF General Engineering Section Meeting Düsseldorf 22 March 2017

CAEF


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Smoking Area is located at the back of the Building Please follow the Signs:


Purpose of our meeting

• Information exchange • Discussion of economic situation • Raw materials • Energy • Technical issues • Etc. • Non-topics for our meetings:

Prices Quotas Concrete customer relationships Any measures with indirect effect on the topics mentioned above Statistics have to respect these issues

Almost no problem: Purchasing subjects Raw materials statistics Anonymous benchmark surveys

Please take note of the CAEF antitrust compliance guideline


Current market situation (General aspects)

• General statements on e.g. the following topics: • Production volumes / Orders in stock

• Cancellation of orders

• Raw materials availability

• Status and development of energy price

• Planned investments

• Mid-term perspectives of production

The statements may not be linked to a concrete product or customer

O:\BDG\CAEF\Competition law slides.pptx


Agenda

1. Welcome

2. Industry 4.0 – “Kurtz Eisenguss – Smart foundry” presentation by Matthias

Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa

3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett

4. Any other business

5. Date and venue of the next meeting


Agenda

1. Welcome


Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa





• Black Magic vs Smart Foundry

• Equipment interactive connected

• Data mining

• Improvement and stabilisation of all processes

• Leads to maximized efficiency Energy and Material Flexibility, Speed etc.

• That´s all?

Future Trend: Smart Foundry Smart Production needs Smart Castings


Agenda

1. Welcome


Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa





Economy and Key Indicators Background for Foundry Business

Bild: Fotolia


1,7 1,6 1,61,9

1,5 1,61,3 1,3

1,6

0,90,7 0,8

3,2

2,32,1

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain

World Economic Outlook 2016-2018

Source: IMF, January 2017, Stat BA

Change in % yoy

Euro: underrated for Germany/ overrated for South of Europe Germany/ France/ Italy: Pre Election Status Spain: Less Dynamic


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan92

Jan93

Jan94

Jan95

Jan96

Jan97

Jan98

Jan99

Jan00

Jan01

Jan02

Jan03

Jan04

Jan05

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

Jan14

Jan15

Jan16

Jan17

Jan18

Indu

stria

l Pro

duct

ion

Chan

ge in

% y

oy

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Busi

ness

Clim

ate

Industrial Production Business Climate

Source: Eurostat, Industrial Production December 2016

Euro Area Business Climate Indicator February 2017 Different signals!

Snapshot February: In February 2017, the Business Climate increased slightly. Managers' views on both their overall and export order books improved strongly. Meanwhile, managers'

assessments of their stocks of finished products and their production expectations worsened.

Economic cycle Economic cycle Investment boom

Recession

Recovery

No (!) cycle…and now?


2,01,5 1,4 1,6

2,3 2,5

6,7 6,56,0

6,67,2

7,7

-0,6

1,1 1,2

0,2

1,5

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,020

16

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

UK USA China India Russia Brazil

World Economic Outlook – 2016-2018

Source: IMF, January 2017

Change in % yoy

• Investmenbt Impulses in the USA = Capital Drain in Emerging Countries?

• OPECAgreement stable? • Impact of US Protectionism? • Official Brexit Declaration


51,5

55,0

51,2 51,0

53,5

55,2 55,0

56,4

51,8

53,6

50,9

53,053,3

55,6

49,9

48,8

54,4

50,4

52,4

54,7

46,3

44,0

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

USA China EuroArea

Germany France Italy Spain Turkey India Russia Brazil

Selected Countries Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) October 2016 – January 2017

Source: Markit, http://de.tradingeconomics.com/

Index

Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service)


Euphoric Mood on the one Hand…


Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 1720

30

40

50

60

70

80

Quelle: Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM), USA PMI works with a corresponding level of ca. 43 %!

USA Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) January 2017 „Trump-Impact“!

New Orders

Difference to other PMI because of the higher share of private consumption: Index above 43 points = expansion of the overall economy Comments from the panel:

• “Strong! Production is increasing and we

are adding capacity.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

• “Business looks stronger moving into the first quarter of 2017.” (Primary Metals)

• “Sales bookings are exceeding expectations. We are starting to see supply shortages in

hot rolled steel due to the curtailment of imports.” (Machinery)

• “Business conditions are good, demand is generally increasing.” (Miscellaneous

Manufacturing) • “Conditions and outlook remain positive.

Asset utilization remains high.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

• “Steady demand from automotive.” (Fabricated Metal Products)



30

40

50

60

70

80

Quelle: Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM), USA PMI works with a corresponding level of ca. 43 %!

USA Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) February 2017 „Trump-Impact – no fleeting star“?

New Orders

Difference to other PMI because of the higher share of private consumption: Index above 43 points = expansion of the overall economy Comments from the panel:

• “Business is improving”

(Chemical Products) • “Product demand continues to be solid.”

(Plastics & Rubber Products) • “Bookings are heavy early in the season.

Expect robust first half of the year.” (Primary Metals)

• “Sales and business continue to be strong and increasing.” (Machinery)

• “Business holding steady in Q1.” (Transportation Equipment)


56,0

57,7

51,051,7

55,2 55,4

56,456,8

53,6

52,2

53,0

55,055,6

54,8

48,8

49,750,4 50,7

54,7

52,5

44,0

46,9

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

USA China EuroArea

Germany France Italy Spain Turkey India Russia Brazil

Selected Countries Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) January 2017 – February 2017

Source: Markit, http://de.tradingeconomics.com/

Index

Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service)


Feelings of Insecurity on the other Hand…


Business Climate Germany Industrial Supplier February 2017

Source: Ifo München, ArGeZ Arbeitsgemeinschaft Zulieferindustrie Saisonbereinigt, Saldo aus positiven und negativen Bewertungen,

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Saldo der positiven und negativen Meldungen

Current Status Expectations

Uncertainties about the months to come

Foundries


Main Customer Industries – current status

Bild: Siemens


Industrial Production EU December 2016

Source: Eurostat

Industrial Production without Automotive

Industrial Production including Automotive


USA: Positive (Dynamic Peak reached?) China: VAT Supportprogram for small cars with max.1.6 l engines Europe: Recovery, but limited volume Russia: Chance for bottom out? Brazil: Recession

Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) 2016

Source: VDA


USA: in the red China: VAT Supportprogram reduced but active Europe: Recovery, but limited volume Russia: Chance for bottom out? Brazil: Recession

Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) Feb 2017

Source: VDA


Market Limitations – Passenger Cars Production in der EU 1990-2013

Quelle: ACEA

2016 = 15,1 Mill. Units


Global Passenger Cars Sales and Production Forecast 2017 Reduced Dynamic

Sales Production Region 2017 2017 World + 2-3% + 2-3% USA ± 0% - 1% China + 5% + 5% W-Europe + 1% ± 0% New EU Countries + 6% ± 0% Germany ± 0% - 2% France + 2% + 3% UK - 6% ± 0% Spain + 7% ± 0% Italy + 7% + 2% Russia + 5% + 5% Turkey - 6% + 2% Brazil ± 0% + 2% Japan + 1% ± 0%

Picture: Fotolia Source: VDA, February 2017


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone

Incoming Orders (IO) Vehicle Industry Germany January 2017

External Orders and Domestic Demand under pressure

Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, saisonal adjusted, calculation BDG

change in % against period a year before, cumulative


40 branches

roundabout 20 identified as castings intensive

e.g.

• Machine Tool Industry

• Hydraulics and Pneumatics

• Agricultural Machinery

• Metallurgical Plants and Rolling Mills

• E.g. Incoming orders for Germany:

General Engineering – Light and Shadow close together 2016 Stagnation, Forecast 2017: only plus 1 % picture: MS


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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Prod Maschinenbau AE Maschinenbau

Incoming Orders (IO) General Engineering Germany January 2017

Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG

• Incoming orders Germany =>1/3 of the EU market • More than 4 years in a row nearly a flat line!


50

70

90

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130

150

170

190

210

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Incoming Orders (IO) Tool Machine Industry Germany January 2017

e.g. Italy: national coordination of investment support programs "Agenzia Nazionale die Gestione dei Fondi Strutturali e FAS« e.g. USA: Impulses from the new tax System?



50

60

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150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AE Pumpen und Kompressoren

Incoming Orders Pumps and Compressors Germany January 2017

Pumps and Compressors are suffering because of low investment level at the mining industry, base chemicals etc.



0

50

100

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200

250

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400

450

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Incoming Orders Engines/Turbines Germany January 2017



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200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Incoming Orders Textile Machinery Germany January 2017

Orders from Southern Europe are very strong! Extra EU: Orders under pressure!



0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AE Bergbau-, Baustoff- und Baumaschinen

Incoming Orders Mining Equipment and Building Machinery Germany January 2017

Building Machines with positve forecast (e.g. fork lift trucks are running well) but Mining Equipment and Exploration Components with different signals! It depends on the development of oil/gas and raw material prices!



Building Machines – Stock Exchange Development after the US Elections: Caterpillar plus 26%, Case plus 25%!

Source: Börse Frankfurt, finanzen.net

Building Machines ready to be delivered to support the „new wall in the USA“


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AE Armaturen

Incoming Order Valves and Fittings Germany January 2017

Big Plant Industry (Power Plants, Chemical Plants) = weak Building Industry = strong



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AE gesamt

Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines Germany January 2017

Engineering Sector with positive Forecast 2017!



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100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines Germany January 2017

Orders from Southern Europe with strong positive trend!



70

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160

170

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AE Inland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone

Bottom out!.

Minus 45%!

Incoming Orders Agriculture Machinery Germany January 2017



European Agricultural Machinery January 2017 Business Climate still negative but with bottom out

Quelle: CEMA


European Agricultural Machinery February 2017 Business Climate has passed the zero line

Quelle: CEMA


European Agricultural Machinery March 2017 Business Climate with stable imporvemnet

Quelle: CEMA


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190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AE Inland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone

Incoming Orders Food Processing and Packaging Germany January 2017

Positive Impulses from the South of Europe but weak demand in Germany



Scenarios for world steelmaking capacity growth

Source: OECD 2016

Overcapacities on a global level!


Scenarios for world steelmaking capacity growth until 2018

Source: OECD 2016


Short Summary and Open Questions

Bild: Fotolia, Nesterov Vasily;


• USA How quickly protectionism is working? Results of NAFTA renegotiations? Investmentboom with temporary positive impact for European plant manufacturer? Direct tax penalties or modification of the tax system (border adjustment tax)?

• China Real growth vs. official data Reduction of capacity or delaying tactic and start of new capacities? Intensive penetration of the European markets if the USA close the doors?

• EU/ Brexit und Co.

Impact of Brexit = dumpening effect for investments or impulses driven by relocation processes?

Open Questions and Uncertainties 2017


• Passenger cars:

Dynamic peak passed in USA, saturation point reached in Europe? Weakness in Russia and South America, China with extended support program!

•

• General Engineering: 2017 chance for a stable „black zero“ plus something after years of stagnation Positive: automation, robotics and rubber- and plastic machines, building machines wind turbines (volume ok, prices under pressure) Bottom out: mining, agrícultural, paper machines, foundry machines low capacity utilisation in the EU

• Further Impulses possible from the Building Industry (on the longterm!)

Risks • Neverending story: Overcapacities – hard price competition – structural change • „Trump“-Impact and raising key interest rates in the USA will lead to

further capital outflow from emerging markets Brexit declaration is dumpening investments

Current Perspectives for the Foundries


Agenda

1. Welcome


Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa

3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett Roundtable




Round Table


Purpose of our meeting

• Information exchange • Discussion of economic situation • Raw materials • Energy • Technical issues • Etc. • Non-topics for our meetings:

Prices Quotas Concrete customer relationships Any measures with indirect effect on the topics mentioned above Statistics have to respect these issues

Almost no problem: Purchasing subjects Raw materials statistics Anonymous benchmark surveys

Please take note of the CAEF antitrust compliance guideline


Current market situation (General aspects)

• General statements on e.g. the following topics: • Production volumes / Orders in stock

• Cancellation of orders

• Raw materials availability

• Status and development of energy price

• Planned investments

• Mid-term perspectives of production

The statements may not be linked to a concrete product or customer

O:\BDG\CAEF\Competition law slides.pptx


Key Figures German Foundry Industry

Bild

: So

schi

nski

Source: Stat BA, BDG, preliminary data

Production: 5.165 m. t thereof Fe: 3.916 m. t, NF: 1.249 m. t Turnover: ca. 12.559 bn. € * Employees: 77 400 Mitarbeiter * Fe: 42 100; NF: 35 300 * (Companies. >50 Empl.)


German Foundry Industry 2016 by Material (Production)

Source: BDG, Stat. BA

Ferrous complete 3.916 m. t -5.0 % thereof Iron castings 2.232 m. t, -5.8 % Ductile castings 1.510 m. t, -3.2 % Steel castings 174 200 t, -8.6 %

Non-ferrous complete 1.249 m. t +2.2 % thereof Aluminium 1.097 t, +2.3 % Magnesium 17 400 t, +14.2 %, Copper 78 500 t, -1.2 % Zinc 56 200 t, +2.9 %


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Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18

Fahrzeugbau Maschinenbau Gießerei-Industrie

Foundry Industry 01.2017 10,4 %

Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG

Change in % against previous year

Vehicle Industry 01.2017 1,9 %

Engineering Industry 01.2017 + 2,8 %

Foundry Industry Incoming Orders Germany Pace to recovery!

Foundry Industry 01-12.2016 - 0,6 %

Vehicle Industry 01-12.2016 3,4 %

Engineering Industry 01-12.2016 - 0,8 %


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160


Iron castings 01.2017 7,8 %

Incoming Orders Iron castings: Bottom out! Incoming Orders Steel castings: High volatility on low level!

Steel castings 01.2017 - 1,0 %





Iron castings 01-12.2016 - 1,5 %

Steel castings 01-12.2016 - 10,9 %




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Incoming Orders Non Ferrous castings: Peak reached?

Lightmetal castings 01.2017 14,1 %

Heavy Metal castings 01.2017 20,1 %





Lightmetal castings 01-12.2016 2,4 %

Heavy Metal castings 01-12.2016 1,9 %




Agenda

1. Welcome


Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa





Agenda

1. Welcome


Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa





European Foundry Industry Expectations

Source: Eisenwerk Brühl, Bernd Rosenbaum


80

90

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180

Jan08

Mai08

Sep08

Jan09

Mai09

Sep09

Jan10

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Jan11

Mai11

Sep11

Jan12

Mai12

Sep12

Jan13

Mai13

Sep13

Jan14

Mai14

Sep14

Jan15

Mai15

Sep15

Jan16

Mai16

Sep16

Jan17

current situation expectations for six months

FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (ferrous) December 2016

Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2014 (incl. Croatia)

Expectations under pressure since autumn 2015: Downward trend on the ferrous side


80

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Jan08

Mai08

Sep08

Jan09

Mai09

Sep09

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Jan11

Mai11

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Mai12

Sep12

Jan13

Mai13

Sep13

Jan14

Mai14

Sep14

Jan15

Mai15

Sep15

Jan16

Mai16

Sep16

Jan17


FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (non-ferrous) December 2016

Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2014 (incl. Croatia)

Quite optimistic: Non-ferrous foundries are expecting continuation of the positive trends!


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan08

Mai08

Sep08

Jan09

Mai09

Sep09

Jan10

Mai10

Sep10

Jan11

Mai11

Sep11

Jan12

Mai12

Sep12

Jan13

Mai13

Sep13

Jan14

Mai14

Sep14

Jan15

Mai15

Sep15

Jan16

Mai16

Sep16

Jan17


FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (steel castings) December 2016

Data collection has started December 2013

Source CAEF, Index Nov 2013 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2014 (incl. Croatia)

Current status weak and expectations extremely volatile!

Documents

The European Foundry Association - bbcmbbbcmb.org/content/news/files/Konjunktur-03-2017-CAEF1.pdf · The European Foundry Association CAEF General Engineering Section Meeting Düsseldorf