The Future of the Metropolis - MIT OpenCourseWare...Backcasting Transit makes high density central city possible Even in the US with transit serving only 2% of all person trips, it

The Future of the Metropolis:Tools and Models

Comparative Land Use and Transportation Planning MIT Course 11.953

May 2006

Mikel Murga, MIT Research Associate and Lecturer

Comparative Land Use and Transportation Planning – May 2006

Contents

� Looking at Transport � Modeling the Future � Transport Goals � Critical Challenges

Mikel Murga 2


A new way of looking: Systemic Thinking

5

Goals

Situation

Problem Decision Results

Decisions

Environment

Goals of Other Agents

Actions of Others

Side EffectsGoals

Figure by MIT OCW.


4. Fourth, OR's analytic problem-

“The Future of Operations Research (OR) is Past” by Russell Ackoff 1979

1. First, there is a greater need fordecision-making systems that canlearn and adapt effectively thanthere is for optimizing systems that cannot.

2. Second, in decision making, account should be taken of aesthetic values-stylistic preferences and progress towards ideals because they arerelevant to quality of life.

3. Third, problems are abstracted fromsystems of problems, messes.Messes require holistic treatment. They cannot be treated effectively by decomposing them analytically intoseparate problems to which optimalsolutions are sought.

solving paradigm, "predict andprepare," involves internalcontradictions and should be replaced by a synthesizing planning paradigm such as "design a desirable future and invent ways of bringing it about”.

5. Fifth, effective treatment of messes requires interaction of a wide variety of disciplines, a requirement that OR no longer meets.

6. Sixth and last, all those who can be affected by the output ofdecision making should either beinvolved in it so they can bring theirinterests to bear on it, or their interests should be well represented by researchers whoserve as their advocates.

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Modeling the future Forecasting

� Forecasting:� Short term

extrapolation:The future on the basis of the past

� Applicable to slow incremental change

� People believe that today’s status quo will remain

� Scenarios, to accept pattern breaks, and to improve our

Scenarios

uncertainty

predictability

Time into the futuredecisions! Number crunching may keep you busy and non-thinking

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Example of Scenario Planning

TENTATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

Element 1: BAU 2: Increased pressure 3: Modal Shift and environmental improvement

Socioeconomic (population) Immigration and aging acc. to BAU-population scenario of Basque country

Increased aging and immigration leads to higher population increase and aging

Like 2. evtl. Other Basque scenario

Economic (jobs and income) Trend development of income Increased economic development

Like 2

Spatial development Slight trend to bigger agglomeration

Like BAU High development towards bigger agglomeration

Motorization Trend development Increased growth rate Decreased growth rate

Technology: Vehicle efficiency Improvement acc. to TRENDS Improvement acc. to TRENDS Increased vehicle efficiency (private and public road transport, rail)

Transport policy Slight change towards private cars and trucks(passenger and freight transport) Moderate infrastructure improvement

Increased change towards private cars and trucks (passenger and freight transport) increased road infrastructure improvement

Increased share of public transport, non motorized transport and rail (freight) increased rail infrastructure improvement

Just a current example Mikel Murga 8


Backcasting and Forecasting

� We learn only from the past! � Look at American and European cities

with subways… � When were those systems built? � Have they shaped those cities? � How should we then evaluate their

contribution???

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Backcasting

The reality modeled for 1985 and 2004 in Bilbao shows similar congestion levels but with higher flows

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Distribución de los viajes por modos en el Bilbao Metropolitano

62,4%

18,5%

11,2%

5,5%1,8%

0,1%

43,4%

31,1%

11,8% 13,3%

0,4% 0,1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

A Pie Coche Bus Tren Otros Bici

Modos

19872002

Metro


Backcasting

The home surveys from 1987 and 2002 describea clear unsustainable trend … WHAT ARE THE REASONS BEHIND THIS ???

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

On Foot Bus Others

1987 2002

Metro

Modal Split in Metropolitan Bilbao in 1987 and in 2002

62,4%

18,5%

11,2%

5,5% 1,8%

43,4%

31,1%

11,8% 13,3%

0,4%

Automobile Train

The change in the economy, drove the changes in mobility

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Backcasting… the best learning method!

See how Innovate Boston is Searching for lessons in the past!

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Mikel Murga 13


Backcasting:Boston’s Commuter Trip at Residence End

Boston Harbor

Mystic River

Charles River

Charles RiverBasin

Fresh Pond

Chelsea River

Old Harbor

Little Mystic Ch

Boston Harbor

Belle Isle I

Chestnut HillReservoir

Charles River

Fort PointChannel

Reserved Channel

Island End River

BrooklineReservr

Muddy River

Pit Pond

er Pond

Millers River

Leverett Pond

Millers River

Public GardenPond

Perch Pond Jerrys Pond

Sargent PondWards Pond

Fisher HillReservoir

Sawing Pond

Belle Isle Inlet

Frog Pond

Clay Pit Pond

Muddy River Pond

2000 HBW Modal Split at ORIGI

0 .4 .8 1.2

Block Group Charts

3,0001,500

750Drove aloneCarpoolBusStreetcarSubwayRailroadWalked

Mikel Murga 14


Backcasting:Boston’s Commuter Trip at Residence End

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Block Group Charts

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The tyranny of the thousandsof small decisions (F.Salvucci)

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Backcasting:Boston’s Commuter Trip at Destination End

Boston Harbor

Mystic River

Charles River

Charles RiverBasin

d

Chelsea River

Little Mystic Ch

Boston Harbor

Bel

Charles River

Fort PointChannel

Reserved Channel

Island End River

Muddy River

Millers River

Leverett Pond

Public GardenPond

Jerrys Pond

Fisher HillReservoir

Belle Isle I

Frog Pond

Clay Pit Pond

Muddy River Pond

2000 HBW Modal Split at Destination

0 .4 .8 1.2Miles

Block Group Charts75,000

37,50018,750

Drove aloneCarpoolBusStreetcarSubwayCommuter railWalkTaxi

This instead is the result of consciousdecisions by an enlightened elite

Mikel Murga 16


Backcasting: Boston’s Commuter Trip at Destination End

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0 1 2 3Miles

Block Group Charts75,000

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Drove aloneCarpoolBusStreetcarSubwayCommuter railWalkTaxi


Backcasting

� Transit makes high density central city possible

� Even in the US with transit serving only 2% ofall person trips, it is critically important inshaping the big cities

� The home to work commute in Boston (and inother American cities like Chicago, New York,San Francisco..) shows the critical role of transitin its downtown

� The downtown job density makes it impossibleto rely solely on the automobile

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Backcasting

� As a chicken and egg problem, job density and parking restrictions go hand in hand

� But parking restrictions do not impede economic development

� In fact, Boston development has been very impressive, since its EPA led parking freeze in 1973

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Transport and Land Use

� Opening the new frontier… � Who gains with a new expressway?

� New access opportunities? � Faster times for present users? � New development opportunities? � Induced demand to get back to square one?

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Transport Efficiency and Quality of Life?

� Which are the real goals of Transport Policy??

� The systems view aligns transportation proposals with higher goals

� You will have to be creative in the use of your tools and approaches

� A Day in the Life of an executive type a Grandma, a yuppie, a child ….

Mikel Murga 27


Focus on Quality of Life?

� When traffic is tamed, a good walking environment results

� Walkers enjoy a wide range of sensory experiences � When most people drive, the buildings end up lacking the

detail and relief that people need and enjoy � People attract more people

See Jan Gehl work in Melbourne Mikel Murga 30


Has transit solved Bilbao’s problem?

� In the last decade, the transit network added a state-of-the-art new subway, a new Light Railand new refurbishment of the RENFE, FEVE and ET rail networks

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Transit’s contribution beyond transport

� In parallel to the new infrastructure projects, the quality of the urban space has been improved

� However experience shows that this has not been enough to turn the tide…

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Quality of Life: Generic Recommendations

� Upgrade Squares and Plazas

� Rehabilitate wide streets

� Develop transit � Reduce through

traffic � Enhance Park Lands � Create pedestrian

and bike networks

� Mixed uses for day and night livability

� Attract residents � Foster markets, cafes

and educational institutions

� Improve ground floor frontage

� Organize public activities and events

Mikel Murga 34


Transport and Land Use

� Suburban sprawl and the car: � Did we want to segregate society? � Downtown vs the Mall, who benefits? � Can we change the Public versus private

space debate? � What about, public poverty versus private

wealth? � Transit and density � Infill development around stations

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36

If you only fix the transportation …

�

program people as in Troy, NY

Mikel Murga

… A beautification -- without


If you only fix the transportation …

A beautification program -- without people as in Norfolk, VA on weekends

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Future Trends and Challenges

� Globalized (or Flattening) World � Global warming � Aging of society � Increasing income gaps � Physical separation based on income � Road Congestion

You will have to come up with your own recipes,to provide effective answers to this critical issues!

Mikel Murga 38


Future Trends and Challenges

We need new sustainable models of development – other than letting the automobile shape the future of our lives

It cannot be based on do as I tell you, instead do as I do

Mikel Murga 39


Transit: an opportunity for rehabilitation

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The power of a LRT project

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Strasbourg

LRT as an excuse for urban transformation

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Modeling provides technical feasibility

… even though vision is what counts!

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Even a small project: before and after

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We need new measuring tools to gauge the contribution!Mikel Murga 50


Your contribution

Of all the kinds of work I can imagine the hardest work of all is thinking -- and that's why most people just don't do it.”

Henry Ford in his highly original "My Philosophy of Industry" published in 1929

You will be surprised how often you can make meaningful proposals with a bit of thinking plus some creativity

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Your contribution

� The Netherlands ABC location policy: � Locations:

� A: main transit hub – few parking - downtown � B: district center or small town bus junction � C: Not served by transit

� Activities: � A: People intensive land uses � B: Commercial and service activities with low

turnout (e.g..: car sales, furniture dealers…) � C: Goods intensive uses

Work simultaneously at the macro and strategic level, and at the detail levelMikel Murga 52


Final thought

� Be on the lookout for all the lessons from the past

� Do measurements and keep those records for future reference, and updates

� Come up with new metrics for the actual contribution of transportation projects

� You can manage only what you measure � Do challenge the status quo… and dare to

be creative!

Mikel Murga 57

Documents

The Future of the Metropolis - MIT OpenCourseWare...Backcasting Transit makes high density central city possible Even in the US with transit serving only 2% of all person trips, it