WP6. UPSCALE: Integrative models building and upscaling WP6.pdf · Kick-off meeting, 6-7 April 2010, Barcelona, Spain WP 6.1. TETIS-SC New developments focused on daily time step:

WP6. UPSCALE: Integrative models building and upscaling

Kick-off meeting, 6-7 April 2010, Barcelona, Spain

Involved Groups

GIHH-IIAMA-UPV: F. Francés, C. Medici, G. Bussi, A. GarcíaGIRH-IIAMA-UPV: J. Andreu, J. Paredes, M. PulidoUPM: C Conde, A. HidalgoUPC: L. Martinez- Landa, J. MolineroICRA-UDG: V. Acuña, R. Marcé, H. FischerURV: M. Marti, M. Nadal, M. SchuhmacherUdL-CTFC: R. López


Main tasks

WP 6.1. TETIS-SC. Process oriented models development (months 1-42)

WP 6.2. SCENARIOS AND INPUTS. Global change scenarios and generation of inputs (months 24-42)

WP 6.3. INVEST-SC. Tailoring InVEST to the Mediterranean area (months 12-50)

WP 6.4. AQUATOOL DSS. DSS development with AQUATOOL shell (months 12-50)


WP 6.1. TETIS-SC

Present TETIS basin oriented model: Distributed in cells => implicit incorporation of spatial variabilityMesoscale conceptualization but parameters with physical meaningGlobal modelPowerful automatic calibration (Frances et al.,Journal of Hydrology, 2007)Includes sediments

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WP 6.1. TETIS-SCCALIBRACIÓN SCE-UA (RMSE) - Estacion ALTZOLA

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CALIBRACIÓN SCE-UA (RMSE) - Estacion ALTZOLA (zoom)

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Deba River at Altzola flow gauge station (469 km2)


WP 6.1. TETIS-SC

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WP 6.1. TETIS-SCNew developments focused on daily time step:

Improve sediments long daily simulations Implementation of external models for dynamic (slope and riparian) vegetation (Quevedo and Frances, HESS, 2008) and N (Medici et al, HESS, 2010)

Incorporation of new processes: C, P and TCode parallelization for automatic calibration of the more complex model


WP 6.2. Scenarios and inputs

TETIS-SC will be used to generate runoff and other water components scenarios in the basins under study, to be used as inputs in WP SERVICES (basin and water body scales) and others WP (mesoscale and water body scales):

Data input – lateral boundaries (tributaries,or treatment plants)

Data input - upper boundary

Output – model results

Output – model results

Cross-sectional profiles

Flow velocity, area water depth



Steps to be done:Supply of historical data series from WP DATA and other WPs

Data inputsObserved state variables

Initial parameter maps estimation



Steps to be done:Supply of historical data series from WP DATA and other WPsInitial parameter maps estimation

Model calibration and validation(specially during observed historic vulnerabilities)

Model general sensitivity analysis(GSA) using Monte Carlo simulations anduncertainty analysis using GLUE or othertechniques



Steps to be done:Supply of historical data series from WP DATA and other WPsInitial parameter maps estimation

Model calibration and validation (specially during observed historic vulnerabilities)Model GSA and uncertainty analysis using GLUE or other techniques

Supply of future Global Change (climatic, land uses, …) scenarios from WP DATA, and downscalingGeneration of runoff and other water components scenarios by simulations, to be the inputs in other WPs


WP6.3. InVEST-SC

Develop and adapt an existing model (InVEST) for SCARCE:Oriented to the evaluation of ecosystem servicesSpatially explicit and dynamic model (raster size from 30x30m, time steps: from 1day to 1 month).Based on mesoscale biophysical models that link each service to a process (including terrestrial and aquatic compartments)

Calibration based on existing data plus TETIS-SC outcomes, using Bayesian inferenceOptimization algorithm with multiple and interrelated ecosystem services, in order to maximize synergies and minimize trade-offeffectsAnalysis of uncertainty


WP6.4. Aquatool DSS

Water Resources Systems integrate at basin scale: water bodies, water demands, infraestructures, environmental demands, water rights and priorities and system operational rules

Their relationships and the efect of input changes, only can be captured by an integral modelization and/or integrated at basin (or exploitation system) spatial scale and monthly temporal scale.

Integrative DSS at basin scale (or exploitation system): crucial for WP8 and WP9 activities trying to evaluate the impact of global changes in the Water Resources Systems.


WP6.4. Aquatool DSS

AQUATOOL: DSS development tool designed for the integrative planning and management of complex water resources systems (Andreu et al., Journal of Hydrology, 1996).

Through scenarios simulation, toobtain the implications in satisfaction and guarantee of demands, environmental requirements, …


WP6.4. Aquatool DSS

It will be stressed the implementation of next modules:GESCAL (quality module), which simulates T, N, eutroph. and OD+OMCAUDECO (environmental demand module), which simulates temporal series of habitat for different species

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Scales integration within SCARCE

Microscale Mesoscale Water body CatchmentScale

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WP1 DATA

WP2 HYDROL

WP3 MORPH

WP4 QUALITY

WP5 PROCESS

WP6 UPSCALE

WP7 ECONOMY

WP8 SERVICES

WP9 FRAME


Interactions with other WPs

WP1 DATA

WP2 HYDRO; WP3 MORPH; WP6 QUALITY; WP5 PROCESS

WP8 SERVICES

WP6.3 InVEST modules

Months 1-34

WP6.2 Scenarios and inputs

Months 24-54

WP6.1 TETIS-SCARCE

Months 1-24

WP6.4 Aquatool DSS

Months 12-42


Key contributions (deliverables)

D6.1. TETIS-SC new model. Month 42. Responsible: UPVCode parallelization for automatic calibrationNew mesoscale conceptualizations

D6.2. InVEST-SC submodules. Month 36. Responsible: ICRA-UDGNew process and related ecosystem services conceptualizations

Parameter calibration linked with TETIS-SC outputsOptimization algorithm

D6.3. Aquatool DSS implementation for the cases of study. Month 42. Responsible: UPV

Focused in quality and environmental simulationsD6.4. TETIS-SC generated series in future scenarios. Month 54.

Responsible: UPV

Documents

WP6. UPSCALE: Integrative models building and upscaling WP6.pdf · Kick-off meeting, 6-7 April 2010, Barcelona, Spain WP 6.1. TETIS-SC New developments focused on daily time step: