ERNEUERBARE ENERGIEFRDERUNG IN SPANIENRicardo Dez
Energiesysteme und Energiewirtschaft
InhaltBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
BEGRIFFBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
BegriffAm 30. Dezember 1999 erscheint der Plan de fomento de las energas renovablesHerausgegeben von der Regierung in Zusammenarbeit mit Institutionen, die im Themenbereich spezialisiert sind
Notwendigkeit in SpanienBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
1.Klimawandel
Grfico1
52
17
13
6
11
Primrenergie in Spanien 1999
Erneuerbare Energie6%
Hoja1
Erdl52
Kohle17
Kernenergie13
Erneuerbare Energie6
Erdgas11
Hoja1
Primrenergie in spanien 1999
Hoja2
Hoja3
1.Klimawandel
1.Klimawandel
2.Abhngigkeit vom AuslandVerhltnis zwischen Inlandserzeugung und Verbrauch
3.Weitere AspekteErdl kann zu schwerwiegenden Umweltverschmutzungen fhren. Beispiel Prestige in Galizien, Spain.2002Kernenergie verursacht Atommll, dessen Abbau bis zu 200.000 Jahren dauern kann. Bis heute gibt es keine berzeugende Lsung
4. Spanien eignet sich fr EEViele BergeViele FlsseBestimmte WindgebieteSonnenreiche GebieteAusgedehntes Gebiet
GrundlagenBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
Grundlagen
Ziel 2010
Grfico1
9640
2121
542
594
3
180
335
19
1852
681
500
150
Biomasse Wasserkraft >50MW Wasserkraft 10-50MW Wasserkraft 50MW2121
Wasserkraft 10-50MW542
Wasserkraft 50MW Wasserkraft 10-50MW Wasserkraft
Elektrizittserzeugung
Grfico1
35.915
27.619.4
9.733.1
9.94.1
16.928.4
2000
2011
Hoja1
20002011
Kohle35.915
Kernenergie27.619.4
Erdgas9.733.1
Erdl9.94.1
Erneuerbare Energie16.928.4
Hoja1
2000
2011
Hoja2
Hoja3
MBD000601AC.xls
Grfico2
35.914.9804674741
27.63157602519.4499384592
9.733.0812479229
9.94.1070649424
16.928.4
2000
2011
ESC. BASE
2.8%Extrap "OFICIAL"EXTRAPENINSULARCUADRO 7
1.126,9742,010canariasbaleares
37.038.224.8PeninsExtrapautoc. Autoprodtotal11,556con fuel=3522GWhEVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA ELCTRICA EN EL PERODO 2000-2010
113.536.538.525.0100.00demanda b.c. 2000 REE195,07610,9438,639214,658601con gas6146GWh1186 MW CC2,457675 MW CC
114.536.038.925.2100.00demanda b.c. 2001 REE205,63011,5728898226,1005.3%222368MW TURBINAGWhTasa Variacin
19,353TOTAL CC EXTRAP1,861ESTIMACIN DEMANDA GAS NATURAL2,000188,4535.9
Mtermias200520102,001197,8765.0
2,002203,8123.0
DATOS 20002,8152,9099,13821,9543,9134,6542,0234,5104751,8541,330demanda b.c. 2011 REE284,00020,773304,773USO FINAL2,003210,1313.1
20113,0063,8589,03835,3445,5937,7951,5495,6685081,8541,56729,9002,077Industria186,8092,004216,8553.2
TASA 2000/20100.60%2.60%-0.10%4.42%3.30%4.80%-2.40%2.10%0.60%0.00%1.50%Transporte2,005233,0293.34.34%
TASA AHORRO-BASE0.91%0.64%-1.02%0.42%-0.68%2.40%-4.35%1.85%4.26%-5.27%7.23%2000-2010Residencial48,5002,006241,3483.6
TASA 1996/20000.59%4.16%-1.39%9.30%0.69%7.48%-9.34%4.00%-0.22%REEExtrapeninautoc. AutoprodtotalServicios13,6392,007249,9643.6
TASA 2000/20050.60%3.50PIB(escen. Nuestro)2.98%elast PIBAgricultura1612,008258,8883.6
TASA 2005/20100.40%1.50Demanda final(GWh)2010254,10018,6969,638282,434207,700249,1092,009268,1303.6
demanda Ktep24,2893.75%1.262,010282,4343.63.92%
0-0-0-0-0-0-00-0-0-00.0000PIB 2000-20062.87%GENERACIN ELCTRICA
PIB 2006-20103.10%C. Combinado (1)127,286
AO: 2011Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalBiomasaSolartrmicaGeotermiaBiocar-burantesHidrulicaMinihi-drulicaElicaBiogsSolarfotovoltaicaR.S.U.TotalRenovablesNUCLEARElectricidadTOTALCogeneracin (2)32,691
79,989159,978CUADRO 8
CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGA (ktep)Evolucin del consumo de productos petrolferos
Industria2,1176393,858001,06101,2115,6691,8541,56615,85717,9232,4010000000002,4019,00447,302Consumo de energa final.19901,995200020062,011TOTAL287,689409,087EVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA DE GAS EN EL PERODO 2000-2010(miles de toneladas equivalentes de petrleo)
Transporte9,03831,6297,79430641249,1805505501,41451,144200020062011%2006/2000%2011/2006%2011/2000CARBON42714,1353,5113,1312,9772,7022,4642,33425542,5732,5462,5172,4892,4612,4332,4052,3722,3392,3072,2752,2442,2132000Estructura %2010Estructura %% variacin anual
Residencial1012,1690002,2240000004,3944,5722,025202000000002,2276,20717,501ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %anualanualanualPROD. PETROLIFEROS4089342,24042,48142,99844,82646,95248,10750,1085368253,76655,58757,28459,03360,83662,69364,60766,30168,03969,82371,65373,53275,460M termiasTasa VariacinGeneracin elctrica4,4667.43,0053.8-3.9
Servicios11900002,28002600002,4961,35430166300000002007,25211,302CARBON25462.823782.122191.7-1.13-1.38-1.24GAS45314,9995,1545,1305,6476,5507,3258,162968810,93412,31913,22114,18815,22616,34117,53618,38919,28320,22121,20522,23623,317(1) Sobre la base de 14000 Mw en 20102,000169,14412.5Transporte (1):31,91353.149,18062.44.4
Agricultura09003,7152704095003,8501535000000000354114,311PROD. PETROLIFEROS5558761.66658059.47577757.63.052.622.86ELECTRICIDAD1097511,37211,48811,56911,99912,46212,82713,3311429015,30616,20716,79117,39618,02218,67119,34420,10220,89021,70922,56023,44524,364(2) gas para generacin elctrica slo.2,001182,6768.0- gasolinas9,1389,038-0.1
TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL2,2193,0073,8589,03835,3445,5927,7941,5485,6695071,8541,56675,77723,8634,49036835500000005,41224,289131,560GAS1231913.61882016.82386318.17.324.866.20EN. RENOVABLES36083,6533,6693,6683,6883,4873,4743,49135123,5333,6073,7163,8283,9434,0624,1844,3794,5834,7975,0205,2545,4992,002200,94410.0- gasleo automocin18,12132,3486.0
ELECTRICIDAD1620718.02004017.92428918.53.603.923.7564,27872,1532,003227,26713.1- querosenos aviacin4,6547,7945.3
Del cual:EN. RENOVABLES36074.043103.854124.13.014.663.762,004256,81213.0Industria13,30822.215,85720.11.8
CONSUMO FINAL (Usos Energticos) (ktep)TOTAL90266100.0112128100.0131560100.03.683.253.482,005012.00.00%Residencial, servicios y resto10,36517.310,74013.60.4
Industria000002,1174383,761001,06101,211001,854258,35017,4282,4010000000002,4019,00439,299Metodologa : A.I.E.2,00608.0TOTAL60,05210078,7821002.8
Transporte000000009,03831,62907,794306000048,76700005500000005501,41450,732Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica40.43%2,00708.0
Residencial000001012,1690002,2240000004,3944,5722,025202000000002,2276,20717,5012,00808.0(1) No incluye transporte martimo internacional.
Servicios0000011900002,28002600002,4961,35430166300000002007,25211,3022,00906.5
Agricultura0000009003,715270400003,7551535000000000354114,216200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102,010436,7236.00.00%
TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL (USOS ENERGTICOS)000002,2192,8063,7619,03835,3445,5927,7941,548001,8542567,76223,3684,49036835500000005,41224,289123,050Consumo de energa final por sectores.VAB industria15,384,03815,796,50216,201,57216,671,03717,151,46717,643,07218,133,22218,636,98919,154,75219,686,89820,233,829Evolucin del consumo de carbn
puesto en el IPdefinitivohiptesis200020062011%2006/2000%2011/2006%2011/2000Ef industria34,339.6235,342.6436,374.9537,437.4138,530.9140,814.6642,036.6943,295.3044,591.6045,926.7047,301.79(miles de toneladas equivalentes de petrleo)
Y:200020002005ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %anualanualanualtep/milln pta.952.232.242.252.252.252.312.322.322.332.332.342000Estructura %2010Estructura %% variacin anual
CONSUMO FINAL (Usos NO Energticos) (ktep)3434038.0436.4Industria3434038.04081536.44730236.02.922.992.95100100.23100.58100.60100.64103.64103.86104.07104.29104.51104.73Generacin elctrica18,59888.312,14485.2-4.2
Industria00000020197000005,669001,5417,5084958,0033227235.7537.8Transporte3227235.84238437.85114438.94.653.834.27Industria2,46611.72,11714.8-1.5
Transporte000000000000004120041204122365526.2125.8Usos diversos2365526.22892925.83311425.23.412.743.11
Residencial0000000000000000000090,267TOTAL90266100.0112128100.0131560100.03.683.253.480TOTAL21,06410014,261100-3.8
Servicios00000000000000000000Metodologa: AIE
Agricultura00000000000000950095095Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica
TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL (Usos NO Energticos)00000020197000005,66950701,5418,0154958,510371389
MteC.C. GWh:MW C.C en este ESCENARIO:demanda final de electricidad (GWh)282,434
8,178MW carbn nacional e importado quedaran`suponiendo 6000 horas138,88881,75215,2765.352horas CC que dice REEconsumo otra transf. Y prdidas31,977
CIcogeneracin totaldemanda b.c. (GWh)314,411INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL
CN14,502Miles toneladas suponiendo 0,585126000 GWh en 1999, 33000 GWh en 2005 y 38000 GWh en 2010Cons. Propios15,000Consumo de energa final por unidad de PIB y por habitante
21,7657,262Miles toneladas suponiendo Hulla: 0,5038con gas el 63% en 2005y el 70% en 2010:Cons. Bombeo1,92219901995200020062011
26,600GWh cogener. Con gas en 2010con bombeo=2130 GWhImp-Exp3,800PIB (*106 a precios ctes.1995)406,252437,788526,372623,641726,487
Es CI todo,32,691Mte gas cogener. factor 1,229 te / kWhsin bombeo=30967 GWhNUEVOTOTAL b.g.327,533% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2006/00 = 2,9%2011/06 = 3,1
Incl.carbn cogenojo factor emisin1,418 te/KWhNUEV.ESCENARIOsolar termoelctrica> 10 MW< 10 MWgener. TrmicaPoblacin (Millones hab.)39.139.641.142.042.5
CONSUMOS EN GENERACION ELECTRICA O EQUIVALENTE EN E.P. (ktep)3,6598,4850012,1440000003,00500003,00515,4428,781180002,6775942,4601501968315,54416,60262,73640,205.1Carbn/PIB (tep/milln 95)10.516.174.843.813.05
id. id. GWh12,13936,9270049,06613,45213,452108,35223,24945931,1296,91228,6005462181,84692,95863,705327,533-0196,510.7P. Petrolferos/PIB100.66107.25105.60106.76104.31INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL
FACTOR0.30140.22980.24920.25910.22340.14250.37770.39220.0860.0860.0860.27470.0870.3700incl. Bombeo0.260642.0%rendim. Gener. TrmicaGas/PIB11.1514.9623.4030.1832.85Consumo de energa final por unidad de PIB y por habitante
CONSUMOS EN REFINO (ktep)0000002,800001,79404,594004,594Electricidad/PIB27.0228.4730.7932.1333.438.6%19901995200020052010
modificadomodificadofalta dato electr. En refino192En.Renovables/PIB8.887.976.856.917.45PIB (*109 ptas.1995)67,59572,84287,581102,024118,849
Energa final/PIB (tep/milln 95)158.22164.81171.49179.80181.095.6%% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2005/00 = 3,1%2010/05 = 3,1
IMP-EXPINDICE (Ao 1990=100)100104.2108.4113.6114.5Poblacin (Millones hab.)39.039.240.141.542.3
TOTAL DEMANDA DE ENERGIA PRIMARIA (ktep)14,3633,0073,8589,03835,3445,5927,7947,3535,6695073,6481,56683,37639,30513,27154835502,6775942,4601501968320,95616,602327174,92811.98%Energa final/poblacin (tep/hab.)1.641.822.202.673.1041.0%Energa final (Ktep)64,27872,15390,266112,128131,560
11,35467,26022,9452,66316,410377134,965INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100110.8133.5162.4188.315.9%389MWh/milln .95.en 201019751980198519901995200020062011Energa final/PIB (tep/106pta.95)0.950.991.031.101.11
3,00913,956ojo bombeo incl.-6.50%Metodologa AIE358MWh/milln .95.en 200035.513738.539.139.641.14242.5INDICE (Ao 1990=100)1000.630.650.690.70
0.2408factor UNESA0.152916,619Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica8.59%Energa final/poblacin (tep/hab.)1.651.842.252.703.11
3,835estructura generacin %15.0%4.1%33.1%9.5%2.1%16.8%19.4%2020.28069053710.39416786240.47715421010.571513570345.0%14.0%INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100111.9136.9164.4189.2
12,72311.6%54,917189326445835548664640.4%Metodologa AIE
0.3014Factor I D A E?Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica
12.0
Factores de emisin (kt CO2/ktep)38,04161,829
Usos Energticos4.03194.03193.86123.98283.05504.03192.61414.13732.87243.07003.07002.96363.20682.76612.33705082699,829
Usos NO Energticos0.52281408961.034314050.75990421.51980840.64687497121.5658240534
Queroseno imputable a aviacin nacional (tanto por 1)0.21OJO, SON DATOS CON BIOMASA EN CARBN
2010Consumo de energa primaria.199019952000200520062010
2010 EMISIONES DE CO2 (Miles de toneladas)Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalTOTAL200020062011%2006/2000%2011/2006%2011/2000CARBON1897418,99219,2771825617869185191559417620178892049921,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63514,363
DE CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGAktep.Estruct. %ktep.Estruct. %ktep.Estruct. %anualanualanualPETROLEO4774149,36750,46449,70951,89454,61055,43357,3966167063,04164,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66383,376
Industria8,5361,24915,659003,25703,8844,30805,12799734,48241,50584,523CARBON2163517.31799912.0143638.2-3.02-4.41-3.66GAS NATURAL50005,5115,8515,8296,4797,5048,40111,0571181613,53515,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22339,305
Transporte00025,96097,10104,851982062700129,5210129,521PETROLEO6466351.77531550.38337647.62.572.052.34NUCLEAR1413814,48414,53714,60914,41514,44914,68014,4111537615,33716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,602
Residencial4075,6710006,82900000012,50010,68523,592GAS NATURAL1522312.22690518.03930522.59.967.889.01RENOVABLES59595,8586,0185,9786,2635,6907,3286,9977,1386,4827,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,06120,956
Servicios34960006,99908500007,5803,16410,746NUCLEAR1621113.01657011.1166029.50.370.040.22
Agricultura0230011,4068301401440011,6703411,704ENERGIAS RENOVABLES70615.6124648.32095612.09.9310.9510.39ESC. BASE 20019181294212961479438296919100771101436107481113889118894124769124769124769124769124769124769124769124769124769124769174601
TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL8,946195,75355,387260,086SALDO ELECTR.(Imp.-Exp.)3820.33850.33850.20.130.000.07ESC. TENDENCIAL 199991,81294,21296,14794,38296,919100,771124,112136,407149,128
DE GENERACION DE ELECTRICIDAD14,75234,21200048,9640000009,63600009,63636,08994,689TOTAL125175100.0149637100.0174986100.03.023.183.09ESC. AHORRO BASE 199991,81294,21296,14794,38296,919100,771120,603128,321129,624134,971
DE REFINO0000000000008,979004,962013,941013,941Metodologa: AIE
TOTAL EMISIONES DE CO2 de Origen Energtico57,910219,33091,476368,716Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica
factor
factor para0.10417para refino=FO1desconocidoHIPTESIS DE LOGRO DEL 12% DE RENOVABLES EN 2010
usos finalesnuevo con 74000.020800pongo ste para cuadrar los 149 de refinoEscenario para el carbn
Factores de emisin para usos finales(kt SO2/ktep)0.0330090.00000.135140.0000930.0000970.001930.005630.0208000.00000.00000.00980.00000.0000CONSUMO Ktep2,0002,0052,010INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA
factores para generacin elctrica (t SO2/GWh bg)1.201.200.000.0013.40nacional10,4055,9522,237Consumo de energa primaria por unidad de PIB y por habitante
2010 EMISIONES DE SO2 (Miles de toneladas)Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalTOTALimportado11,23010,2079,18319901995200020052010
DE CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGATOTAL21,63516,15911,420PIB (*109 ptas.1995)67,59572,84287,581102,024118,849
Industria700508002025001805540624% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2005/00 = 3,1%2010/05 = 3,1
Transporte000130446000054054CONSUMO toneladas2,0002,0052,010Poblacin (Millones hab.)39.039.240.141.542.3
Residencial300004000000408nacional26,17011,9044,474Energa Primaria (ktep)91,812100,771125,1750174,986
Servicios000004010000505importado19,61617,59815,833Energa Prim./PIB (tep/106pta.95)1.361.381.430.001.47
Agricultura000000000000101TOTAL45,78629,50220,307INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100101.85105.230.00108.40
TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL736180691Energa Prim./poblacin (tep/hab.)2.362.573.120.004.14
DE GENERACION DE ELECTRICIDAD14.644.30.00.00591801800239Potencia instalada MW (1)2,0002,0052,010INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100109.1132.50.0175.5
DE REFINO000000000000580018076076nacional9,6726,1003,027Metodologa AIE
TOTAL EMISIONES DE SO2 de Origen Energtico13287401,006825importado2,5102,5103,310Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica
TOTAL12,1828,6106,337
(1) suponiendo 6000 horas /ao de utilizacin
factor para0.00521para refinodesconocidototal ktep renovables segn PFER
usos finalesnuevo con 74000.002838pongo ste igual que FO1,9992,0062,010
Factores de emisin para usos finales(kt NOx/ktep)0.0095370.0010390.006760.0199030.033290.00250.007510.0028380.00000.00000.0028380.00000.00007,11511,91816,640
factores para generacin elctrica (t NOx/GWh bg)2.502.502.502.503.401.5% s/Ep9.212.3
2010 EMISIONES DE NOx (Miles de toneladas)Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalTOTALBALANCE DE ENERGA EN AO HIDRULICO MEDIO (GWh b.c.)9.69.9
DE CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGAEscenario:Estimacin del gas natural empleado en generacin elctrica por cogeneracin (1)
Industria200250030300503705719923552
Transporte0001801,053059100001,29201,2922000201119935590
Residencial120006000000809Carbn35.915.019946959
Servicios000006000000606Nuclear27.619.419957799
Agricultura000012400000001240124Gas natural9.733.119969694
TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL211,46701,488Productos Petrolferos9.94.1199712175.4
DE GENERACION DE ELECTRICIDAD30.392.30.00.00.012346460168Energas Renovables16.928.4199816515.2
DE REFINO000000000000110015026026199921060
TOTAL EMISIONES DE NOx de Origen Energtico1441,53801,682200021912
2001
2002
2003
2004
200525500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
201132,691
199019982010
100108114
100134162
PIB (*109 ptas.1995)67,59572,84287,581102,024118,849
INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA
Consumo de energa primaria por unidad de PIB y por habitante
19901995200020062011
PIB (*106 a precios ctes.1995)406,252437,788526,372623,641726,487199019982010
% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2006/00 = 2,9%2011/06 = 3,1100105106
Poblacin (Millones hab.)39.039.641.142.042.5100129151
Carbn/PIB (tep/milln 95)46.7142.3041.1028.8619.77
Petroleo/PIB117.52124.74122.85120.77114.77
Gas natural/PIB12.3117.1428.9243.1454.10
Nuclear/PIB34.8033.0030.8026.5722.85
Renovables/PIB14.6713.0013.4119.9928.850.9%
Energa Prim./PIB (tep/milln 95)226.00230.18237.81239.94240.871.3%
INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100101.85105.23106.17106.58
Energa Prim./poblacin (tep/hab.)2.362.543.043.564.1229.2%
INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100108.0129.2151.2174.735.2%
Metodologa AIE17.0%
Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica15.6%
-6.17
EMISIONES DE CO2 DE ORIGEN ENERGETICO (Mt)
199020002010% total 2000/1990% total 2010/2000% total 2010/1990
Industria48.860.584.524.0%39.7%73.2%199019982010
Transporte60.584.4129.539.6%53.4%114.2%0.02726899220.028224Industria48.850.133808627951.500907065952.905284900554.347958703555.829972767157.352399860858.91634200760.562.231125271363.987531182965.793509743567.650460087169.559820837171.523071220273.541732212875.617367719177.751585782979.946039833282.202429965385
Gener.elctrica64.795.194.747.0%-0.4%46.4%0.04261203780.036303Transporte60.563.043622091165.730039300268.530930221171.451172811774.495852890277.670272991380.979961601884.487.49576920590.672127429793.963796962197.3749639478100.9099665019104.573300226108.3696239256112.3037655348116.3807282561120.6056969231124.9840445946130
Refino de petrleo10.014.013.940.2%-0.4%39.6%0.0493279838-0.000361Gener.elctrica y refino74.778.365912485782.231544946986.287861263490.544267485495.010633644699.6973166414104.61518426195.195.065707607895.031427581394.997159915994.962904607194.928661650694.894431041994.860212776494.826006849994.791813257794.757631995594.723463058995
Residencial11.315.923.640.2%48.4%108.1%0.07450735-0.016557Resto24.225.980513214927.916252405429.996218393132.231157134734.632615239237.212999623239.985641609514.314.063241028613.83040197413.601417935813.376225088313.154760662212.936962927612.722771176912.512125707112.304967804212.101239725811.900884685912
Servicios4.87.010.746.0%53.5%124.2%
Agricultura8.014.311.777.7%-18.2%45.4%
Total208.1291.3368.739.9%26.6%77.2%
ESCENARIO BASE (pib + 2,97%. Elast. Elctr. 1,26. PFER)ESCENARIO BASE
(Demanda gas ENAGAS excepto C.C.. Demanda elctrica REE + hiptesis extrap. 5%)HIPOTESIS:
- CONTINUIDAD DEL CRECIMIENTO ECONMICO ALTO (+3,1% medio anual)
RESUMEN DE RESULTADOS- CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACIN SIGNIFICATIVO EN EL ESTRATO DE MAYOR DEMANDA ENERGTICA (+2,2 millones)
- CONTINUIDAD EN EL CRECIMIENTO DE LA ACTIVIDAD INDUSTRIAL (no deslocalizacin de sectores intensivos en demanda energtica)
- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL CRECE UN 5,1% EN 2000-2010- ELASTICIDAD DE LA DEMANDA ELCTRICA SOBRE PIB POR ENCIMA DE LA UNIDAD.
- CONSECUCIN DE LOS OBJETIVOS DEL PLAN DE FOMENTO DE ENERGAS RENOVABLES.
- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA BAJA UN 0,5% EN 2000-2010
RESUMEN DE RESULTADOS
- EL GAS ALCANZA EN 2010:- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL CRECE UN 3,4% EN 2000-2010 (Aumento del 3,45 anual del consumo final)
- EL 17,6% DE LA ENERGA FINAL- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA BAJA UN 1,4% EN 2000-2010 (Aumento del 2,96% anual del consumo primario)
- EL 21,5% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA
- EL 31,1% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN- EL GAS ALCANZA EN 2010:
- EL 17,7% DE LA ENERGA FINAL (el 13,6% en 2000)
- LAS RENOVABLES ALCANZAN EN 2010:- EL 22% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (el 12,2% en 2000)
- EL 4,1% DE LA ENERGA FINAL- EL 32,5% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN (el 9,7% en 2000)
- EL 9,8% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA
- EL 24,2% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN- LAS RENOVABLES ALCANZAN EN 2010:
- EL 4,1% DE LA ENERGA FINAL (4% en 2000)
- EL CO2 DERIVADO DE LA ENERGA SUBE EN 2010 UN 77,1% SOBRE 1990- EL 9,9% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (5,6% en 2000)
- EL 24,5% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN (16,9% en 2000)
- EL CARBN ALCANZA EN 2010:
40.8- EL 8,7% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (el 17,3% en 2000)
15.6- EL 16,2% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN (el 35,9% en 2000)
25.2- CONSUME 21,8 Mt (40,8 Mt en 2000)
- EL PETRLEO ALCANZA EN 2010:
- EL 58,3% DE LA ENERGA FINAL (el 61,6% en 2000)
- EL 50,1% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (el 51,7% en 2000)
ESCENARIOS DE EMISIONES SUPONIENDO QUE NINGUNA CENTRAL SE ACOGE A LA CLUSULA DE 20.000 HORAS.
2000200020102010
ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)
ESCENARIO BASEGWhSO2NOXGWhSO2NOX
CARBN79,15391425450,15160125
FUEL/GAS (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)26,09576313,000-2
GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)--74,923-45
COGENERACIN (> 50MW)3,000-24,500-4
NUCLEAR62,206--63,705--
HIDROELCTRICA31,806--38,041--
RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM22,867no includono includo93,213no includono includo
TOTAL225,127990287327,53360176
20102010
ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)
ESCENARIO REEGWhSO2NOX
CARBN53,15264133
GAS NATURAL (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)3,000-2
GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)64,220-39
COGENERACIN (> 50MW)4,500-4
NUCLEAR58,524--
HIDROELCTRICA31,248--
RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM74,108no includono includo
TOTAL288,75264177
20102010
ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)
ESCENARIO ENAGASGWhSO2NOX
CARBN45,59955114
GAS NATURAL (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)3,000-2
GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)79,476-48
COGENERACIN (> 50MW)4,500-4
NUCLEAR58,524--
HIDROELCTRICA31,248--
RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM66,405no includono includo
TOTAL288,75255168
ESCENARIOS DE EMISIONES SUPONIENDO QUE EL 25% DE LA PRODUCCIN DE CARBN PROCEDE DE CC.TT.
CC.TT. ACOGIDAS A LA CLUSULA DE 20.000 HORAS.
2000200020102010
ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)
ESCENARIO BASEGWhSO2NOXGWhSO2NOX
CARBN79,15391425450,15160135
FUEL/GAS (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)26,09576313,000-2
GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)--74,923-45
COGENERACIN (> 50MW)3,000-24,500-4
NUCLEAR62,206--58,524--
HIDROELCTRICA31,806--38,041--
RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM22,867no incluidono incluido82,656no incluidono incluido
TOTAL225,127990287311,79560186
20102010
ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)
ESCENARIO REEGWhSO2NOX
CARBN53,15264144
GAS NATURAL (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)3,000-2
GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)64,220-39
COGENERACIN (> 50MW)4,500-4
NUCLEAR58,524--
HIDROELCTRICA31,248--
RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM74,108no incluidono incluido
TOTAL288,75264188
20102010
ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)
ESCENARIO ENAGASGWhSO2NOX
CARBN45,59955123
GAS NATURAL (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)3,000-2
GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)79,476-48
COGENERACIN (> 50MW)4,500-4
NUCLEAR58,524--
HIDROELCTRICA31,248--
RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM66,405no incluidono incluido
TOTAL288,75255177
ESC. BASE
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
CARBON
PROD. PETROLIFEROS
GAS
ELECTRICIDAD
EN. RENOVABLES
Ktep
Consumo de energa final
resumen gener. elctr.
00
00
00
00
00
2000
2011
%
Estructura de generacin (% sobre total generacin bruta)
00
00
00
00
00
Energa final/PIB (tep/milln 95)
Energa final/poblacin (tep/hab.)
tep/milln 95
tep/habitante
Intensidad energtica final
00
00
00
00
00
Energa Prim./PIB (tep/milln 95)
Energa Prim./poblacin (tep/hab.)
tep/milln 95
tep/habitante
Intensidad energtica primaria
0000000
0000000
0000000
Industria
Transporte
Gener.elctrica
Refino de petrleo
Residencial
Servicios
Agricultura
Mt
Emisiones de CO2 derivadas de la transformacin y consumo de energa
91811.891811.891811.8
942129421294212
961479614796147
94381.594381.594381.5
96919.496919.496919.4
100771.3100771.3100771.3
101435.7
107481
113889
118894
124769124112120603
124769
124769
124769
124769
124769136407128321
1247692006129624.257412139
124769
124769
124769
174601.10958431149128134971
135 Mtep
149
167
ESC. BASE 2001
ESC. TENDENCIAL 1999
ESC. AHORRO BASE 1999
Ktep
ESCENARIOS DE EVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA ENERGTICA PRIMARIA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
millones de habitantes
Evolucin de la poblacin en Espaa
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ao
Millones de termias
Estimacin del gas natural empleado en generacin elctrica por cogeneracin (excluyendo el empleado en la parte trmica)
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
129,6 MtepEn. Renovables 9,2% de la Energa Primaria
148 MtepEn. Renovables 8,1% dela Energa Primaria
ESC. BASE 2001
ESC. AHORRO BASE 1999
Ktep
ESCENARIOS DE EVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA ENERGTICA PRIMARIAY PESO DE LAS ENERGAS RENOVABLES
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
120,6
124,8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CARBON
PETROLEO
GAS NATURAL
NUCLEAR
RENOVABLES
Ktep
Consumo de energa primaria
100100
104.1654505425110.8341536338
108.3838503504133.5417859188
113.6521789099162.4218566481
114.4535740376188.2997528445
E.Final/PIB
E.final/habitante
Indice (1990=100)
Intensidad energtica(Energa Final/PIB y Energa Final/habitante)
00
00
00
00
00
E.Primaria/PIB
E.Primaria/habitante
Indice (1990=100)
Intensidad energtica(Energa Primaria/PIB y Energa Primaria/habitante)
Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoTotalCarbnFueloilTotalPetrleoGasNaturalBiomasaSolartermoel.HidrulicaMinihi-drulicaElicaBiogsSolarfotovoltaicaR.S.U.TotalRenovablesNUCLEARTOTAL
CONSUMOS EN GENERACION ELECTRICA O EQUIVALENTE EN E.P. (ktep)3,6598,48512,1443,0053,00515,4428,7811802,6775942,4601501968315,54416,60262,736
GWh12,13936,92749,06613,45213,452108,35223,24945931,1296,91228,6005462181,84692,95863,705327,533
miles toneladas7,26214,502Potencia C.C. MW15,276
potencia MW8,178Prod. GWh C.C.81,752
Consumo gas C.C. Mte138,888
GWh cogener. con gas26,600
Consumo gas cogener.
slo parte elctrica32,691
GWh cogener. Total38000
milespotenciaPFERNUEVO ESCENARIO
2010CONSUMOS EN GENERACION ELECTRICA O EQUIVALENTE EN E.P. (ktep)GWhtoneladasMW2010ktepktep
actual 41000actual 12182Biomasa5,2697,981
Total Carbn12,14449,06621,7658,178Solar termoel.180380
Prod. Petrolferos3,00513,452slo extrapeninsularHidrulica2,6772,677
Gas Natural15,442108,352slo peninsular. Ver desgloseMinihidrulica594594
Biomasa8,78123,249Elica1,8522,460
Solar termoel.180459Biogs150150
Hidrulica2,67731,129Solar fotovoltaica1919
Minihidrulica5946,912R.S.U.683683
Elica2,46028,600Total Renovables11,42414,944
Biogs150546
Solar fotovoltaica19218
R.S.U.6831,8463,519
Total Renovables15,54492,958De acuerdo al PFER
Nuclear16,60263,705igual a produccin actual
TOTAL 201062,736327,533
actual 48300actual 205629
Imp-Exp3,800
Cons. Bombeo1,922
Cons. Propios15,000
demanda b.c. (GWh)314,411
Demanda b.c. REE284,000
Demanda b.c. extrapeninsular20,773
Autoconsumo autoproductores9,638
consumo otra transf. Y prdidas31,977
demanda final de electricidad (GWh)282,434199578 en 2001, incr.3,75% desde 2000
Consumo gas cogener.
Potencia C.C. MWProd. GWh C.C.Consumo gas C.C. MteGWh cogener. con gasslo parte elctrica MteGWh cogener. Total
15,27681,752138,88826,60032,69138000
PLAN DE FOMENTO DE LAS ENERGAS RENOVABLES
potencia MWproduccin GWh
Biomasa1,89713,949
Solar termoel.200459
Hidrulica16,57131,129
Minihidrulica2,2306,912
Elica (*)13,00021,5388974MW en el PFER2400 horasponemos 2200 horas en nuevo escenario de 13000
Biogs78546
Solar fotovoltaica14421828600GWh elica
R.S.U.2621,846
Total Renovables34,38276,597
(*) Potencia superior a la prevista en el PFER, estimada a efectos de planificacin de redes.
La produccin elica es la fijada en el PFER.
13415 MW REE peninsular y 1861 MW de Baleares y Canarias dicho por ellos
Investitionen
Hilfe fr Stromerzeuger von Erneuerbarer EnergieSie knnen ihren Strom verkaufen:
mit einem festen Preis den die Regierung festlegt
Mit dem Marktpreis+Prmie+Motivation (z.B. Windkraft)
EfektivittBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
Aktuelle SituationNur Windenergie erfllt Erwar-tungenAlle anderen erreichen das Ziel nicht
Neue Verordnung 2004Antwort auf die UneffizienzSie versucht die Situation mit dem Erzeuger zu verbessernSie frdert besonders Windkraft und Photovoltaik (bis 100kW)Keine gleiche Frderung von Biomasse
Prmien
UrsachenBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
UrsachenLanger Weg durch die Brokratie, bis eine Anlage in Betrieb genommen werden kann.Anpassung an das NetzAlte Regelung (1985). Eine neue ist in ArbeitMangelnde Infrastruktur
Wachstum der NachfragePrimrenergie/PIBPrimrenergie/Einwohner
Wachstum der Nachfrage
TPE y GDP
0.16370.22750.3793
0.16010.21370.3206
0.16220.1960.2953
0.17280.18980.2843
0.17180.18120.2643
0.17370.17660.2559
Spanien
UE
USA
Energa primaria total/PIB $95 PPC
tpe y poblacin
1.82823.40297.9554
1.86753.42787.4703
2.33033.61437.7029
2.63013.68427.93
3.00543.82898.3151
3.12773.85848.3496
Spanien
EU
USA
tep/Einwohner
Primrenergie/Einwohner
datos
Energa primaria total/PIB $95PPC19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
Spanien0.11240.10670.10620.10070.10590.10540.10980.11870.1270.12450.13070.14040.13660.14630.14980.15360.15930.15240.16060.16290.16370.16640.15960.15860.15980.16010.15810.15350.15780.16570.16220.16510.1680.16450.1690.17280.1660.16930.17020.17180.1737
EU0.22070.21650.22130.22740.22440.22410.22190.22330.22730.23130.25590.25430.25450.25530.24610.2380.24270.2360.23580.2380.22750.22040.21260.20980.21070.21370.2110.20890.20280.20.1960.1980.19370.19450.19060.18980.1930.18710.18520.18120.1766
USA0.42910.42360.4210.42590.41930.41330.41250.41960.42260.43090.44890.44240.44120.43520.42880.41760.4220.41820.40730.39370.37930.360.35210.33810.32910.32060.310.31280.31210.30610.29530.29880.29560.29440.28760.28430.2810.2740.2660.26430.2559
Fuente : AIE
Primrenergie/Einwohner (tep per capita)19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
Spanien0.52830.55470.60250.62050.68060.71160.78610.87610.98741.04381.13211.26071.31481.50491.6111.64461.74091.69261.78991.79991.82821.8451.78711.80641.84011.86751.89751.94172.09372.2982.33032.42212.47562.39132.50732.63012.58372.73552.86463.00543.1277
EU1.72211.76361.87371.99462.06622.13672.18192.25352.3992.57552.97133.033.15033.33163.263.123.31823.29933.3853.52693.40293.29473.20063.21373.30183.42783.47133.52663.55663.61513.61433.68183.62733.6123.62533.68423.79943.76813.82623.82893.8584
USA5.65215.62345.78796.00066.15186.32376.60876.83117.09787.35777.59367.67097.96958.19327.93747.68848.13218.3248.46778.3577.95547.65917.26967.2137.45737.47037.40777.6567.88467.92977.70297.67177.73857.83197.88517.938.04628.11878.15228.31518.3496
Fuente : AIE
Wachstum der Nachfrage
TPE y GDP
0.16370.22750.3793
0.16010.21370.3206
0.16220.1960.2953
0.17280.18980.2843
0.17180.18120.2643
0.17370.17660.2559
Spanien
EU
USA
primrenergiel/PIB
tpe y poblacin
1.82823.40297.9554
1.86753.42787.4703
2.33033.61437.7029
2.63013.68427.93
3.00543.82898.3151
3.12773.85848.3496
Espaa
Unin Europea
Estados Unidos
Energa primaria total/poblacin
datos
Energa primaria total/PIB $95PPC19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
Spanien0.11240.10670.10620.10070.10590.10540.10980.11870.1270.12450.13070.14040.13660.14630.14980.15360.15930.15240.16060.16290.16370.16640.15960.15860.15980.16010.15810.15350.15780.16570.16220.16510.1680.16450.1690.17280.1660.16930.17020.17180.1737
EU0.22070.21650.22130.22740.22440.22410.22190.22330.22730.23130.25590.25430.25450.25530.24610.2380.24270.2360.23580.2380.22750.22040.21260.20980.21070.21370.2110.20890.20280.20.1960.1980.19370.19450.19060.18980.1930.18710.18520.18120.1766
USA0.42910.42360.4210.42590.41930.41330.41250.41960.42260.43090.44890.44240.44120.43520.42880.41760.4220.41820.40730.39370.37930.360.35210.33810.32910.32060.310.31280.31210.30610.29530.29880.29560.29440.28760.28430.2810.2740.2660.26430.2559
Fuente : AIE
Energa primaria total/poblacin (tep per capita)19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
Espaa0.52830.55470.60250.62050.68060.71160.78610.87610.98741.04381.13211.26071.31481.50491.6111.64461.74091.69261.78991.79991.82821.8451.78711.80641.84011.86751.89751.94172.09372.2982.33032.42212.47562.39132.50732.63012.58372.73552.86463.00543.1277
Unin Europea1.72211.76361.87371.99462.06622.13672.18192.25352.3992.57552.97133.033.15033.33163.263.123.31823.29933.3853.52693.40293.29473.20063.21373.30183.42783.47133.52663.55663.61513.61433.68183.62733.6123.62533.68423.79943.76813.82623.82893.8584
Estados Unidos5.65215.62345.78796.00066.15186.32376.60876.83117.09787.35777.59367.67097.96958.19327.93747.68848.13218.3248.46778.3577.95547.65917.26967.2137.45737.47037.40777.6567.88467.92977.70297.67177.73857.83197.88517.938.04628.11878.15228.31518.3496
Fuente : AIE
UrsachenBestimmte Gruppierungen stellen sich dagegenWettbewerb durch unabhngige Unternehmen, die hnliche Entwicklungen vermarktenWirtschaftliche Untersttzung bleibt bestehen, welche die Vorherrschaft der fossilen Energie trgt.
Mgliche LsungenBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
Mgliche LsungenVerbesserung der Effizienz der VerwaltungMehr Investitionen zur Frderung von Prmien und FestpreisGesetze zum Gebrauch fossiler BrennstoffeErneuerbaren Energien in Spanien mehr Aufmerksamkeit schenken, wie Wind- (Off-shore) und Sonnenenergie
ZukunftBegriffWarum ist das notwendig in Spanien?GrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
Keine gnstigen AussichtenWenn keine Vernderung eintritt, erfllt der Frderungsplan nicht annhernd seine VorstzeNur die Windernergie knnte die Mngel der anderen kompensieren.
Neues ZielDie Regierung arbeitet an Vernderungen des PlanesDie zunehmende Energienachfrage und die aktuelle Situation von Erneuerbarer Energie verursachen neue ZieleDiese Vernderung wird in diesem Sommer umgesetzt werden
Neu Ziel
Grfico1
900020000
143500
200500
4.85
22002200
19002000
43765000
5002500
altes Ziel
Neues Ziel
Hoja1
Windkraft900020000
Photovoltaik143500
Solarthermik200500
Solar thermische4.85
Wasser-kraftwerk
SchlussfolgerungBegriffWarum ist das notwendig in Spanien?Bases del PlanEfectividadUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung
SchlussfolgerungKein Bewusstsein der ffentlichkeit ber die Bedeutung der erneuerbaren EnergienDie Regierung muss baldmglichst fr Abhilfe sorgenEs kann zu einem ersten Problem des Staates werden
Literaturwww.appa.es
www.idae.es
www.energias-renovables.com
www.cne.es
End?