Das Nordische Modell ein zuknftiges System auch nach der Finanzkrise?

Stein KuhnleUniversity of Bergen and Hertie School of Governance

Seminar und Podiumsdiskussion:Das Nordische Modell ein zuknftiges System auch nach der Finanzkrise?6. September 2010; im Felleshus der Nordischen Botschaften, BerlinEmail address: kuhnle@hertie-school.orgAnders oder hnlich?Vergleich des Nordischen mit dem deutschen Modell

Model(s)?There is no such thing as a Scandinavian [Nordic] model (Stein Ringen)

Welfare states [political systems] do not come as models

The Nordic model is whatever characteristics the Nordic political and welfare systems at any time possess

Lack of distinctiveness makes the German model distinctive (Jens Alber)(Welfare) models: whats in a name? Characterizing the Nordic countries:

Scandinavian/Nordic;Social-democratic;Institutional-redistributiveBeveridgean;

Characterizing Germany:

Bismarckian;Industrial-achievement;Christian-democratic;Corporatist-conservative;Continental;

--and there are many other models in townLiberal;Residual;Basic security;Radical;Latin;Southern;Protestant-liberal;Anglo-saxon;East-European;East-Asian;Confucian

The Nordic [welfare] modelprinciples and institutional characteristics social rights; universalism; (modified) egalitarianism; public responsibility; service-oriented (social services; care for elderly; education; kindergartens)outcome of social and welfare policies equality of income distributions; little poverty; high employment; high public employment; gender equality; long-term economic growthtype of democratic governance consensual governance; participatory role of unions and employers associations; compromises in the labour market; established trust relations between government and interest organizationsThe German (welfare) modelprinciples and institutional characteristics social insurance; status-maintenance; subsidiarity; role of (non-governmental) welfare associations; income-transfer orientedoutcome of social and welfare policies social differentation of welfare provision; high employment security; less equal income distributions and more relative poverty than in the Nordic countries; long-term economic growthtype of democratic governance less consensus than in the Nordic model, but more than in the UK model; cooperation among unions and management councils; corporatism (but with a relatively weaker role for government than in the Nordic conutries)[A broader concept of the German model put emphasis on financial and industrial relations; the role of banks in the industrial and commercial sector; and the system of vocational training, apprenticeships for skilled positions]SimilaritiesComprehensive welfare states public responsibility and accountability; high public social expenditure; strong, well-organized public sector; Consensual governance Consensual governance more pronounced in the Nordic countries, but commonalities are Soziale Marktwirtschaft; co-ordinated market economies; Mitbestimmung; interplay between unions, employers associations (and government): - resulting in political legitimacy and social and political stability

BUT: decision-making responses to crises can be more efficient in the unitary Nordic states than in the federal system of Germany! (Even given the fact that the small Nordic countries have more political parties in their parliaments than Europes biggest country, Germany!) Welfare models becoming more similar over time (?):development of international epistemic communities; mutual learning between Nordic countries and Germany (e.g. family policies; labour market policies; pension policies); more coordinated responses to economic crises now than earlier(?)

DifferencesDifferent (timing of) policy responses to new social risks from the 1970s, caused by de-industrialization and development of service-based labour markets (e.g. new risks such as long-term unemployment; atypical work/careers; low-skilled single parents; low-income working mothers; low-skilled young employed; more inequality, poverty): Germany: strengthening of employment protection; income replacement programs; early retirement schemes; little incentive for older workers to stay in, and for women to enter, the labour market. BUT, many policy reforms over the last 10-20 years. The character of the conservative/Bismarckian German welfare state is changing!Nordic countries: expansion of employment through active labour market programs and public social services; incentives for women to enter the labour market: Result: The Nordic countries vs. Germany: higher overall employment and female employment, less polarized and less unequal labour markets, less poverty and poverty gaps; better reconciliation of work and family life; higher tax revenues and also higher trust in government! In recent years: The EU and OECD, look to the Nordic countries for inspiration (e.g. flexicurity; family policies)

Lessons from previous Nordic crisis managementFinland and Sweden in the early 1990sPolitical pragmatism ruled: compromises made (especially in Finland rainbow government coalition!) Adjustments of social security systems; less generousAdjustment of tax systemsMore inequality avoided; poverty levels did not increaseLesson: Advanced welfare states in place serve as buffers in times of crisis; comprehensive welfare states make political, economic and social sense in open economies and in a globalized economy: economic recuperation is smoother and quicker; less long-term social costs

Some German-Nordic profiles: ranking of countries from high to low.total tax revenues as % of GDP (2008): Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Germany, Icelandtaxes on income and profits as % of GDP (2008):Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Germanyincome tax progressivity (data from 1990s):highest in Germanytaxing of the wealthiest (data from 1990s):highest in Germanycorporate taxes (2007):highest in Germanystandard VAT-rate (2010):highest in the Nordic countriestotal employment rate (2008):Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germanyfemale employment (2008):Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Germanygovernment debt as % of GDP (2008):Iceland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark

- income inequality

- poverty

- economic growth in different types of welfare states

Danke schnKiitosTakTack TakkThank you for your attention!

EQ1_ESociety at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD 2009 - ISBN 9789264049383Chapter 6. Equity IndicatorsVersion 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009EQ1.1. Income inequality varies considerably across OECD countriesGini coefficient and interdecile ratio P90/P10, mid-2000sNote: Countries are ranked, from left to right, in increasing order in the Gini coefficient. Data refer to the mid-2000s for all countries. The income concept used is that of disposable household income in cash, adjusted for household size with an elasticity of 0.5.Source: OECD Income Distribution questionnaire.

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EQ1_E03030303030303030303030303030404040504050504040404040606060609

Gini coefficient (left-hand scale)Interdecile ratio P90/P10 (right-hand scale)

EQ1_FSociety at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD 2009 - ISBN 9789264049383Chapter 6. Equity IndicatorsVersion 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009EQ1.1. Les ingalits de revenus sont extrmement variables dans la zone OCDECoefficient de Gini et cart interdcile (P90/P10), milieu des annes 2000Note : les pays sont classs, de gauche droite, par ordre croissant du coefficient de Gini. La notion de revenu utilise est le revenu disponible du mnage en espces, ajust la taille du mnage avec une lasticit de 0.5.Source : Questionnaire de lOCDE sur la distribution des revenus.EQ1.2. Les ingalits de revenus tendent se creuserVariation en points de pourcentage du coefficient de GiniMilieu des annes 80Milieu des annes 80Variation cumule du milieu des annes 80au milieu des annes 90au milieu des annes 90au milieu des annes 2000AUSAUSAUTAUTBELBELCANCANCZECZEDNKDNKFINFINFRAFRADEUDEUGRCGRCHUNHUNIRLIRLITAITAJPNJPNLUXLUXMEXMEXNLDNLDNZLNZLNORNORPRTPRTESPESPSWESWETURTURGBRGBRUSAUSAOECD-24OCDE-24OECD-22OCDE-22Note : Dans la partie de gauche, les donnes pour la Rpublique tchque, la Hongrie, le Portugal et lAllemagne (limite aux Lnder occidentaux) concernent les changements intervenus entre les alentours de 1990 et le milieu des annes 90 (aucune donne nest disponible pour lAustralie, la Pologne et la Suisse). Dans la partie centrale, les donnes pour lAutriche, la Rpublique tchque, la Belgique, lIrlande, le Portugal et lEspagne concernent les changements intervenus entre le milieu des annes 90 et les alentours de 2000 (pour ces pays, les donnes de 2005, bases sur lEU-SILC, ne sont pas juges comparables avec celles des annes antrieures). OCDE-24 dsigne la moyenne simple des pays de lOCDE pour lesquels des donnes sont disponibles pour la priode entire (tous les pays du graphique lexception de lAustralie) ; OCDE-22 exclut le Mexique et la Turquie.Source: Questionnaire de l'OCDE sur la distribution des revenus.

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EQ1_F00-00-00-00-00-000000000-0000000

data-EQ1-000000000-0-0-00-0-0-0-0000-00-0-0000

0000000-00-00-000000000-00-00000

03030303030303030303030303030404040504050504040404040606060609

Coefficient de Gini (chelle de gauche)Rapport interdcile P90/P10 (chelle de droite)

Society at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD 2009 - ISBN 9789264049383Chapter 6. Equity IndicatorsVersion 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009Data EQ1.1 Gini coefficients of income inequality in OECD countries, mid-2000sData EQ1.2Donnes EQ1.1 Coefficients de Gini de l'ingalit de revenus dans les pays de l'OCDE, mi-2000sGini coefficient (left-hand scale)OECD-30 averageDifference with OECD average% Change with OECD averageInterdecile ratio P90/P10 (right-hand scale)OECD-30 averageTrends in Gini coefficients of income inequality in OECD countriesCoefficient de Gini (chelle de gauche)Moyenne OCDE-30Diffrence avec moyenne OCDEChangement % avec moyenne OCDERapport interdcile P90/P10 (chelle de droite)Moyenne OCDE-30volutions des coefficients de Gini de l'ingalit des revenus dans les pays de l'OCDEMid-1970sMid-1980s1990Mid-1990s2000Mid-2000sDNK0.2320.311-0.078-0.25DNK2.72AustraliaAustralieAUS0.3090.3170.301SWE0.2340.311-0.077-0.25SWE2.79AustriaAutricheAUT0.2360.2380.2520.265LUX0.2580.311-0.053-0.17LUX3.25BelgiumBelgiqueBEL0.2740.2870.2890.271AUT0.2650.311-0.045-0.15AUT3.27CanadaCanadaCAN0.2950.2870.2830.3010.317CZE0.2680.311-0.043-0.14CZE3.20Czech RepublicRpublique tchqueCZE0.2320.2320.2570.2600.268SVK0.2680.311-0.043-0.14SVK3.26DenmarkDanemarkDNK0.2210.2150.2260.232FIN0.2690.311-0.042-0.13FIN3.21FinlandFinlandeFIN0.2350.2070.2280.2610.269BEL0.2710.311-0.040-0.13BEL3.43FranceFranceFRA *0.3000.2900.2700.2700.270NLD0.2710.311-0.040-0.13NLD3.23GermanyAllemagneDEU0.2570.2580.2720.2700.298CHE0.2760.311-0.035-0.11CHE3.29GreeceGrceGRC0.4130.3360.3360.3450.321NOR0.2760.311-0.035-0.11NOR2.83HungaryHongrieHUN0.2730.2730.2940.2930.291ISL0.2800.311-0.031-0.10ISL3.10IcelandIslandeISL0.280FRA0.2810.311-0.029-0.09FRA3.39IrelandIrlandeIRL0.3310.3240.3040.328HUN0.2910.311-0.020-0.06HUN3.36ItalyItalieITA0.3090.2970.3480.3430.352DEU0.2980.311-0.013-0.04DEU3.98JapanJaponJPN0.3040.3230.3370.321AUS0.3010.311-0.010-0.03AUS3.95KoreaCoreKOR0.312OECD-300.311OCDE-304.16LuxembourgLuxembourgLUX0.2470.2590.2610.258KOR0.3120.3110.0020.01KOR4.73MexicoMexiqueMEX0.4520.5190.5070.474CAN0.3170.3110.0060.02CAN4.12NetherlandsPays-BasNLD0.2510.2590.2780.2820.2780.271ESP0.3190.3110.0080.03ESP4.59New ZealandNouvelle-ZlandeNZL0.2710.3180.3350.3390.335JPN0.3210.3110.0100.03JPN4.77NorwayNorvgeNOR0.2340.2560.2610.276GRC0.3210.3110.0100.03GRC4.39PolandPolognePOL0.3160.372IRL0.3280.3110.0180.06IRL4.41PortugalPortugalPRT0.3540.3290.3290.3590.3850.385NZL0.3350.3110.0240.08NZL4.27SlovakiaRpublique slovaqueSVK0.268GBR0.3350.3110.0240.08GBR4.21SpainEspagneESP0.3710.3370.3430.3420.319ITA0.3520.3110.0410.13ITA4.31SwedenSudeSWE0.2120.1980.2090.2110.2430.234POL0.3720.3110.0610.20POL5.63SwitzerlandSuisseCHE0.2790.276USA0.3810.3110.0710.23USA5.91TurkeyTurquieTUR0.4340.4900.430PRT0.3850.3110.0740.24PRT6.05United KingdomRoyaume-UniGBR0.2820.3250.3730.3540.3700.335TUR0.4300.3110.1190.38TUR6.49United Statestats-UnisUSA0.3160.3380.3490.3610.3570.381MEX0.4740.3110.1630.52MEX8.53OECD-240.2930.3100.313OECD-300.311OCDE-304.16OECD-220.2790.2930.3000.97Note: Countries are ranked, from left to right, in increasing order in the Gini coefficient. Data refer to the mid-2000s for all countries except for Japan and Switzerland, where they refer to 2000. The income concept used is that of disposable household income in cash, adjusted for household size with an elasticity of 0.5.Notes: In the first panel, data refer to changes from around 1990 to the mid-1990s for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Portugal and to the western Lnder of Germany (no data are available for Australia, Poland and Switzerland). In the second panel, data refer to changes from the mid-1990s to around 2000 for Austria, the Czech Republic, Belgium, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (where 2005 data, based on EU-SILC, are not deemed to be comparable with those for earlier years). OECD-24 refers to the simple average of OECD countries with data spanning the entire period (all countries shown above except Australia); OECD-22 refers to the same countries except Mexico and Turkey).Source: OECD Income distribution questionnaire.Source: Questionnaire de l'OCDE sur la distribution des revenus.* Mid-2000s Gini figure for France is slightly different in Figure 1.1. It is based on based on EU-SILC for levels in the most recent year (0.287), but it is based on "Enqute des Revenus Fiscaux" for changes over time (0.270).

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EQ2_ESociety at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD 2009 - ISBN 9789264049383Chapter 6. Equity IndicatorsVersion 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009EQ 2.1. OECD countries with high poverty rates tend to have high poverty gapsPoverty rate and poverty gap, mid-2000s, 50% poverty threshold

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Poverty gap (right-hand scale)Poverty rate (left-hand scale)

EQ2_FSociety at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD 2009 - ISBN 9789264049383Chapter 6. Equity IndicatorsVersion 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009EQ2.1. Dans les pays de lOCDE, un taux de pauvret lev va souvent de pair avec un cart de pauvret levTaux de pauvret et cart de pauvret, milieu des annes 2000, seuil de pauvret fix 50 %EQ2.2. Dans lensemble, les taux de pauvret ont augment entre le milieu des annes 80 et le milieu des annes 2000Variation en points de pourcentage du taux de pauvret dfini par un revenu infrieur 50 % du revenu mdian, au cours de diffrentes priodesMilieu des annes 80 milieu des annes 90Milieu des annes 90 milieu des annes 2000Variation cumule(milieu des annes 80 milieu des annes 2000)AUSAUSAUTAUTBELBELCANCANCZECZEDNKDNKFINFINFRAFRADEUDEUGRCGRCHUNHUNIRLIRLITAITAJPNJPNLUXLUXMEXMEXNLDNLDNZLNZLNORNORPRTPRTESPESPSWESWECHECHETURTURGBRGBRUSAUSAOECD-24OCDE-24Note : Dans la partie de gauche, les donnes pour la Rpublique tchque, la Hongrie et le Portugal concernent la variation du taux de pauvret entre les alentours de 1990 et le milieu des annes 90 (aucune donne nest disponible pour lAustralie et la Suisse). Dans la partie centrale, les donnes concernent les changements intervenus entre le milieu des annes 90 et les alentours de 2000 pour lAutriche, la Belgique, la Rpublique tchque, lIrlande, le Portugal et lEspagne (pour ces pays, les donnes de 2005, bases sur lEU-SILC, ne sont pas comparables avec celles des annes antrieures), et entre 2000 et 2005 pour la Suisse. OCDE-24 dsigne la moyenne simple des pays de lOCDE pour lesquels des donnes sont disponibles pour la priode entire (tous les pays du graphique lexception de lAustralie et de la Suisse).Source : Calculs effectus partir du questionnaire de l'OCDE sur la distribution des revenus.

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EQ2_F00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Intensit de pauvret (chelle de droite)Taux de pauvret (chelle de gauche)

Data_EQ2.1AUS1-4-11-1-0-1201042014211-20CHE-04-11

Data_EQ2.212-03-012-03-1-04-313-312-0-12211-201

AUS3-411-12-15-115133-2450-0-02CHE12-11

Society at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD 2009 - ISBN 9789264049383Chapter 6. Equity IndicatorsVersion 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009EQ1.1Headcounts 2005Average poverty gap 50%Median poverty gap 50%taux de pauvret 2005Intensit moyenne de pauvret 50%Intensit mdiane de pauvret 50%40%50%60%50/6010040%50%60%50-40%60-50%Poverty rate (left-hand scale)Poverty gap (right-hand scale)Taux de pauvret (chelle de gauche)Intensit de pauvret (chelle de droite)DNK0.0210.0530.1230.0210.0320.0700.0530.243DNKDNKSWE0.0250.0530.1140.0250.0290.0600.0530.248SWESWECZE0.0300.0580.1150.0300.0280.0570.0580.236CZECZEAUT0.0340.0660.1340.0340.0330.0670.0660.274AUTAUTNOR0.0350.0680.1240.0350.0330.0560.0680.294NORNORFRA0.0280.0710.1410.0280.0430.0700.0710.244FRAFRAISL0.0420.0710.1230.0420.0290.0520.0710.359ISLISLHUN0.0370.0710.1230.0370.0350.0520.0710.234HUNHUNFIN0.0280.0730.1480.0280.0460.0750.0730.203FINFINNLD0.0400.0770.1440.0400.0370.0670.0770.209NLDNLDLUX0.0310.0810.1320.0310.0500.0510.0810.201LUXLUXSVK0.0450.0810.1370.0450.0370.0560.0810.255SVKSVKGBR0.0370.0830.1550.0370.0450.0730.0830.248GBRGBRCHE0.0480.0870.1520.0480.0390.0650.0870.387CHECHEBEL0.0310.0880.1620.0310.0570.0740.0880.204BELBELNZL0.0000.1080.2270.0000.1080.1190.1080.336NZLNZLDEU0.0630.1100.1720.0630.0480.0620.1100.297DEUDEUITA0.0660.1140.1970.0660.0480.0830.1140.333ITAITACAN0.0700.1200.1900.0700.0500.0700.1200.244CANCANAUS0.0460.1240.2030.0460.0780.0790.1240.236AUSAUSGRC0.0700.1260.1960.0700.0560.0700.1260.267GRCGRCPRT0.0740.1290.2070.0740.0550.0780.1290.290PRTPRTESP0.0810.1410.2100.0810.0600.0690.1410.320ESPESPPOL0.0930.1460.2080.0930.0530.0620.1460.356POLPOLKOR0.0980.1460.2080.0980.0480.0620.1480.360KORKORIRL0.0700.1480.2330.0700.0780.0850.1460.257IRLIRLJPN0.0950.1490.2080.0950.0540.0590.1490.347JPNJPNUSA0.1140.1710.2390.1140.0570.0670.1710.383USAUSATUR0.1140.1750.2430.1140.0610.0680.1750.329TURTURMEX0.1270.1840.2530.1270.0570.0680.1840.379MEXMEXOECD0.0560.1060.1740.0560.0490.0680.1060.286OECDOCDE

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Society at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators - OECD 2009 - ISBN 9789264049383Chapter 6. Equity IndicatorsVersion 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009EQ2.2 Point changes in income poverty rate at 50% median level over different time periodsVariation en points de pourcentage du taux de pauvret montaire au seuil de 50 % du revenu mdian,sur plusieurs priodesPoverty rates, 50% of median income, selected countriesPoint changes in income poverty rate at 50% median level over different time periodsMid-1970sMid-1980sMid-1990sMid-2000sMid-1980s to Mid-1990sMid-1990s to Mid-2000sCumulative change (Mid-2000 to Mid-1985)Milieu des annes 1980 milieu des annes 1990Milieu des annes 1990 milieu des annes 2000Variation cumule (Milieu des annes 1980 milieu des annes 2000)1AustraliaAustralie11.4%12.4%AUS0.985AUS2AustriaAutriche6.1%7.4%9.3%AUT1.3031.9293.232AUT3BelgiumBelgique14.6%10.8%10.4%BEL-3.824-0.330-4.153BEL4CanadaCanada14.4%10.7%9.5%12.0%CAN-1.2292.5451.316CAN5Czech RepublicRpublique tchque3.2%4.3%4.3%CZE1.080-0.0201.060CZE6DenmarkDanemark6.0%4.7%5.3%DNK-1.3000.580-0.720DNK7FinlandFinlande9.9%5.1%4.9%7.3%FIN-0.1912.4282.236FIN8FranceFrance7.6%6.9%6.5%FRA-0.700-0.400-1.100FRA9GermanyAllemagne6.3%8.5%11.0%DEU2.2312.5404.771DEU10GreeceGrce17.8%13.4%13.9%12.6%GRC0.410-1.237-0.827GRC11HungaryHongrie6.3%7.4%7.1%HUN1.100-0.2640.836HUN12IrelandIrlande10.6%11.0%15.4%IRL0.4494.3664.816IRL13ItalyItalie10.3%14.2%11.4%ITA3.900-2.8001.100ITA14JapanJapon12.0%13.7%14.9%JPN1.7481.1842.932JPN15LuxembourgLuxembourg5.4%5.5%8.1%LUX0.1002.6002.700LUX16MexicoMexique20.7%21.7%18.4%MEX1.004-3.285-2.281MEX17NetherlandsPays-Bas2.8%3.5%7.1%7.7%NLD3.6010.5854.185NLD18New ZealandNouvelle-Zlande6.2%8.4%10.8%NZL2.2002.4004.600NZL19NorwayNorvge6.4%7.1%6.8%NOR0.700-0.3000.400NOR20PortugalPortugal16.2%13.8%14.6%13.7%PRT0.773-0.929-0.156PRT21SpainEspagne14.1%11.8%13.7%ESP-2.2651.900-0.365ESP22SwedenSude3.8%3.3%3.7%5.3%SWE0.3571.6512.007SWE23SwitzerlandSuisse7.5%8.7%CHE1.210CHE24TurkeyTurquie16.4%16.2%17.5%TUR-0.2491.3801.131TUR25United KingdomRoyaume-Uni5.7%6.2%9.8%8.3%GBR3.579-1.5032.076GBR26United Statestats-Unis15.4%17.9%16.7%17.1%USA-1.2200.402-0.818USAOECD-24OCDE-249.4%10.0%10.6%OECD-240.5650.6431.207OCDE-24

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