Die Zukunft des Sozialstaates

Professor Dr. Heiner Flassbeck

www.flassbeck-economics.de Engelberg, 17.10.2013

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012 In

vest

ition

en in

vH

geg

enüb

er V

orja

hr

Bes

chäf

tigun

g in

vH

geg

enüb

er V

orja

hr

Jahre

Beschäftigung und Investitionen in Deutschland1)

1) Werte von 1960 bis 1991 Westdeutschland, von 1992 bis 2012 Deutschland. 2) Wachstumsrate der geleisteten Arbeitsstunden der abhängig Beschäftigten in vH gegenüber Vorjahr, linke Skala. 3) Wachstumsrate der realen Ausrüstungsinvestitionen in vH gegenüber Vorjahr, rechte Skala. Quellen: Statistisches Bundesamt; OECD; AMECO Datenbank (Stand: Mai 2012), Werte für 2012: Prognose der EU-Kommission.

Investitionen3)

Beschäftigung2)

Employment and real GDP in developed economies 1971–2011

(Per cent)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Real GDP growth (left scale) Employment growth (right scale)

Employment and gross fixed capital formation in developed economies, 1971–2011

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1519

71

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

GFC

F gr

owth

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Empl

oym

ent G

row

th

Gross fixed capital formation (left scale) Employment (right scale)

15

Annual growth rates of unit labour costs and inflations

16

Wage share and unemployment rate in developed countries, 1970–2010

Growth of employment and gross domestic product in developing economies, 1971–2011

(Per cent)

-1

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

GDP growth (left scale) Employment growth (right scale)

Growth of employment and gross fixed capital formation in developing economies, 1971–2011

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1519

71

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

GFCF

gro

wth

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Empl

oym

ent G

row

th

Gross fixed capital formation (left scale) Employment (richt scale)

19

Wage growth as the key determinant of demand growth Growth of employment and real GDP in selected countries, 1981–2011

20

Capital and labour are complementary, not substitutes Growth of employment and gross fixed capital formation in selected countries, 1981–2011