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How do we communicate in 2020? Astrid Wisse Director Ernst & Young Advisory Telecommunications 15th of February 2012
Page 2
The world is changing rapidly
“Spatial View's 3D-Screen adds Glasses-Free 3D Capabilities to 2D Laptops” February 7, 2012
“Cisco: Global cloud traffic will increase 12-fold by 2015” November 29, 2011
“US refuses entry to two Brits because of tweets joking about digging up Marilyn Monroe and destroying America" February 8, 2012
“'Google will know more about you than your partner': Uproar as search giant reveals privacy policy that will allow them to track you on all their product” February 3, 2012
“KLM enables people to chose their flight neighbour through social networks” December 5, 2011
“Hacker group Anonymous published conference call between FBI and Scotland Yard” February 3, 2012
Page 3
Scenario planning helps to get more grip on uncertainty
► Scenarios help decision makers to
challenge the ‘official future’.
► Scenarios are external realities, they can not be influenced.
► Scenarios are extreme pictures, meant to stretch mental models.
► Scenarios can be used:
► As a stress test for your current strategy
► To validate new decisions
Page 4
The most crucial part of scenario planning is the exploration of the external environment
► The creation of scenarios requires 5 steps: 1. Define the scope 2. Explore the environment 3. Distinguish key uncertainties from
important trends 4. Develop the scenario framework 5. Describe detailed scenarios
► To explore the environment it is important to take an outside-in approach.
► The external environment can be divided in a macro environment and a business environment.
► The forces identified are external and therefore can not be influenced by the organization.
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario C Scenario D
Uncertainty II
Uncertainty I
Page 5
Broad industry views are key for scenario planning, we involved many industry experts
Sherry Turkle (Professor of the Social Studies of Science and Technology at the MIT) “Connectivity offers the illusion of companionship without the demands of friendship”
How do
Consumers communicate in
2020?
Infrastructure and service providers
Content and apps providers &
new start ups
Equipment providers
Media & entertainment
Menno Lanting (Author of Connect) “Borders between consumers and companies fade”
Page 6
‘Self-shaping of the physical world within
your own context provides a
shapeable world’
Raimo van der Klein Layar, CEO
Page 7
Ricardo Brenna Sony Ericsson, Global Head Research & Intelligence
‘People want to be in control of the internet
space’
Page 8
‘On the internet, people who have
less self discipline loose
themselves’
Ned Wiley Axel Springer, Managing Director
Page 9
During this Scenario Study we have looked at relevant trends and their relationships
► Explored the environment using different methods.
► Assessed the uncertainty and impact of the different trends.
► Developed a trend complex with relationships between trends.
► Determined the so called key uncertainties in the trend complex.
► The characteristics of a key uncertainty are:
1. A high impact
2. A high uncertainty
3. Central position within the trend complex
Workshops
Interviews
Focal question
Long list of trends
2 Key uncertainties
Desk research
Expl
ore
envi
ronm
ent
Ran
k tre
nds
A B
C D
Visu
aliz
e
Virtualization social
media The cloud
Social
Need for own
identity
Need for safety
Need for more
comfort:
Need for an
experience
Demographics
Generation Z
Aging population
Worries about
security and
privacy
Need for a “personal
guide”
“green”
Connected consumer,
Personalization
Mobile device
Changing interfaces
Co-creation experienc
e center
security solutions
“personal guide”
Frequency scarcity
digital waste
services
variety in content
Privacy
Integration
Page 10
This analysis has resulted in 2 key uncertainties: security & privacy and integration of internet & consumer life
Integration of internet and consumer life Fully integrated & seamless
Virtual and physical worlds merge seamlessly together
Fragmented & separated The virtual world is a separate, stand alone world
Reversal of virtualization
Security and privacy Not in control Privacy issues
Internet gangs and identity theft Uncontrolled chaos
In control Strict privacy & security regulation Transparency & approval for data usage Controlled and safe internet
Page 11
Combining these two key uncertainties delivers four divergent and challenging scenarios
A
D
Integration of internet and consumer life Fully integrated & seamless
In c
ontro
l Security and privacy
Not in control
B
C Fragmented & separated
Page 12
Next steps
► Ernst & Young will present the final scenarios on the 8th of March 2012.
► The next steps for you are: ► Judge how well you are prepared for the future; ► Assess your current strategy; ► Identify blank spots, risks and opportunities; ► Monitor the changes in the external environment.
► Ideally scenario planning should not be a stand alone activity.
► It is essential to monitor the environment frequently.
► Ernst & Young will follow this up with a yearly update of the scenarios.