Prof. Dr. Gerhard BoschUniversität Duisburg EssenInstitut Arbeit und QualifikationForsthausweg 2, LE, 47057 DuisburgTelefon: +49 (0)203 / 379-1827; Fax: +49 (0)203 / 379-1809 Email: gerhard.bosch@uni-due.de; www.iaq.uni-due.de In

stitu

t A

rbei

t un

d Q

ualif

ikat

ion

Gerhard Bosch

Duisburg May 23, 2018

"Digitalization (or the fourth industrial revolution) and the related labor and employment issues."

Structure of presentation

1. The high-Tech Strategy of Germany

2. Impact on employment

3. Pro-active trade union policy

4. Modernization of the dual system ofvocational training

5. Reducing low wage work

1.1 High-Strategy in Germany since 2010

• Since 2010 focus on society‘s need to developforward looking solutions in the 5 fields:

• Climate / energy,• Health / nutrition,• Mobility,• Security• Communications

• Digitalization cross-cutting aspect in all fields

• In 2015 due to union pressure addition of „Future ofWork“ program in the tradition of the „Humanizationof Work“ programs in the 70‘s/ 80‘s

1.2 R&D as percentage of GDP 2016 (change 2000-2016 in pct. points)

Source: OECD

1,71

2,93

2,22

4,25 4,23

2,79

1,70

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

Canada Germany France Israel Korea USA UK

- 0.15

+ 0.54

+ 0.14

+ 0.32 + 2.05

+ 0.18

+ 0.06

2.1 Impact on employment: uncredible horrorscenario of Osborne/Frey

Quelle: Frey/Osborne (2013): S.. 37The Future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

2.1 But productivity growth declining: producitivitypuzzle

Quelle: Alexander Herzog-Stein u.a.: Wachstum und Produktivität im Gegenwind: Eine Analyse der Argumente Robert Gordons im Spiegel der deutschen Produktivitätsschwäche, IMK-Report 124, März 2017 (Böckler Impuls 06/2017)

2.3 Impact on German employment

German prognosis on impact of industry 4.0:

• Structural change twoards service sector• Only small overall employment effects (IAB-Studie

2015 -2025 – 60 000 Beschäftigte / minimal changes ofassumptions positive effects)

• More dangerous for Germany: technological backlogand loss of competiveness

• But: Loss of jobs in some industries

Problems:- Loss of well-paid jobs covered by CA‘s- Intensification of work- High risks with transitions in other companies (lower

wages, de-sk illing)

3.1 Pro-active trade union policy

• German manufacturing regard industry 4.0 as an necessary innovation push

• Pro-active approach needed – to avoid job risksthrough underinvestment in skills and innovative work organization

• What do unions do?• Encourage/coordinate of „Future of Work“ projects• Own projects on industry 4.0 • Integrate new themes in CB like further training• Old themes (protection against dismissals, employer

dominated working time flex ibility, low wages) remainimportant

3.2 Pro-active trade union policy

• Example Project „Work 4.0 - North-Rhine-Westphalia2010“ of three manufacturing unions

• Identifying 40 entreprises with pro-active workscouncils

• 6 - 8 all day workshops in each entreprise with thehelp of consultants - goals:- stock-taking of industry 4.0 in all departments- summarizing conflicts and problems- debate with employees and management- Development of pro-active strategies – best case

„Future Plant Agreement“ - evaluation by IAQ

3.3 Company map of industry 4.0

11

3.4 Some intermediate results

• Mostly gradual and not disruptive change• The old problems are also the new like overtime or

high stress but sometimes more urgent like• Underinvestment in further training is decoupling

mainly older workers from the technologicaldevelopment

• Delocation of work• Compromises on flexible working hours and pay

system already found in the past – sufficient for I 4.0

• „Future Agreements“ in 6 companies - content: jointworking groups, regular meetings and information, avidance of dismissals, agreements on necessarytraining etc.

Quelle: IAB. Qualifikationsspezifische Arbeitslosenquoten. 2016 (Eigene Darstellung) 1) Ab 2006 Fachschul,- Meister-, Technikerausbildung, Daten aus Mikrozensus

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Ohne Ausbildung

4.1 Unemployment rates by skill level 1975 – 2015: Increasing problems of unskilled workers

Fachschul-, Meister-, Technikerausbildung

4.2 Modenization of vocational training

• Between 5 and 6% of the employees apprentices in the dual system of vocational training

• Training in around 350 white and blue collaroccupations

• Most employees in manufacturing skilled (VET ortertiary education)

• Broad skill base supports learning on the job• Job tenure increasing since companies rely on the

tacit knowledge also of new digital tools of theemployees

4.3 Modenization of vocational training

• Most occupations modernized in the last decade

• Occupational profiles technology open - broadoccupations – skill reserves needed to be able tomanage changing demands

• Industry 4.0 an important push to reflect on thecurricula, the learning tasks and tools

• At present:• Social partners check 20 occupational profiles at

national level

4.5 Occupational profile of a repairperson today (blue)and tomorrow including further training (red) (Siemens)

Quelle: IGM (2016) Berufsbildung 4.0: Lernen im digitalen Wandel Fünf Betriebe zeigen ihre Praxi, p. 17s

5. 1 Increasing wage inequality: Change of real hourly wage by deciles 1995-2015 in Germany

Source: Bundesregierung 2017: 60

5.2 Evolution of coverage by collective agreements in Germany 1998 - 2016

Source: WSI Tarifarchiv (based on IAB Establishment Panel data)

5.3 Rate of coverage by collective agreements and share of low-wage work (2014)

Source: Visser 2015, Eurostat, own calculations

Diagramm1

22.48

11.94

15.08

14.76

2.64

5.28

8.81

3.79

24.4

21.26

17.75

22.76

23.56

8.61

23.96

25.46

18.52

19.21

12.03

9.44

18.69

21.56

18.47

14.59

18.19

19.33

adjcov: Adjusted bargaining (or union) coverage rate

share of low wage earners in %

Coverage by collective agreements in %

Correlation: - 0,82

DE

LU

MT

AT

SE

FI

FR

BE

RO

UK

HU

EE

PL

DK

LT

LV

NL

SK

PT

IT

CZ

IE

SI

ES

BG

CY

57.6

59

62.79

98

89

93

98

96

35

11.92

23

23

14.67

84

9.89

15

84.84

24.9

67

80

47.29

40.49

65

77.58

29

45.19

Data

Niedriglohnempfänger als Prozentsatz der gesamten Angestellten (ohne Auszubildenden) nach Geschlecht [earn_ses_pub1s]

Letzte Aktualisierung07.12.16

Exportierte Daten19.02.17

Quelle der DatenEurostat

UNITProzent

SEXInsgesamt

SIZECLAS10 Arbeitnehmer und mehr

GEO/TIME200620102014Niedriglohnempfänger als Prozentsatz der gesamten Angestellten (ohne Auszubildenden) nach Geschlechtadjcov: Adjusted bargaining (or union) coverage rateKorr

Europäische Union (28 Länder):16.9617.15DE22.4857.6-0.82

Europäische Union (27 Länder)16.6916.9317.15LU11.9459

Euroraum (19 Länder)::15.88MT15.0862.79

Euroraum (17 Länder)14.2714.7815.7AT14.7698

Belgien6,82+B34B16:B406.373.79SE2.6489

Bulgarien18.922.0118.19FI5.2893

Tschechische Republik17.0518.1918.69FR8.8198

Dänemark8.318.178.61BE3.7996

Deutschland (bis 1990 früheres Gebiet der BRD)20.322.2422.48RO24.435

Estland23.1923.7622.76UK21.2611.92

Irland21.4120.6621.56HU17.7523

Griechenland15.7312.82:EE22.7623

Spanien13.3714.6614.59PL23.5614.67

Frankreich7.136.088.81DK8.6184

Kroatien:21.35:LT23.969.89

Italien10.2712.369.44LV25.4615

Zypern22.6522.6219.33NL18.5284.84

Lettland30.927.8125.46SK19.2124.9

Litauen29.1227.2423.96PT12.0367

Luxemburg13.1813.0611.94IT9.4480

Ungarn21.8719.5117.75CZ18.6947.29

Malta14.4317.6115.08IE21.5640.49

Niederlande17.7417.4618.52SI18.4765

Österreich14.1915.0214.76ES14.5977.58

Polen24.7224.1623.56BG18.1929

Portugal20.7216.0812.03CY19.3345.19

Rumänien26.8525.8224.4

Slowenien19.2417.1418.47

Slowakei18.319.0319.21

Finnland4.755.855.28

Schweden1.772.512.64

Vereinigtes Königreich21.7722.0621.26

Island11.248.997.54

Norwegen6.487.278.29

Schweiz:11.039.37

Montenegro::27.25

Die ehemalige jugoslawische Republik Mazedonien:28.2525.13

Serbien::22.91

Türkei0.240.40.46

Sonderzeichen:

:nicht verfügbar

Data

adjcov: Adjusted bargaining (or union) coverage rate

Share of low wage earners

Coverage by collective agreements

Korrelation: - 0,82

DE

LU

MT

AT

SE

FI

FR

BE

RO

UK

HU

EE

PL

DK

LT

LV

NL

SK

PT

IT

CZ

IE

SI

ES

BG

CY

Conclusions

• I-4.0 not new – digitalisation started earlier but I 4.0 hype creates an atmosphere of departurehelps focussing R&D priorities, employer and also union strategies

• Work 4.0 an appendix of I-4.0, but • unions succeeded to implement the „Future of

Work“ program as well as own industry andcompany initiatives

• Main issues: safeguarding employment, re-skilling, and high coveragy by CA‘s

• Work 4.0 includes many other aspects like the statusof click and crowd workers and other bogus self-emloyed, the role of the employer (Ubersation)

"Digitalization (or the fourth industrial revolution) and the related labor and employment issues."�Structure of presentation1.1 High-Strategy in Germany since 20101.2 R&D as percentage of GDP 2016 (change 2000-2016 in pct. points)2.1 Impact on employment: uncredible horrorscenario of Osborne/Frey2.1 But productivity growth declining: producitivity puzzle Foliennummer 83.1 Pro-active trade union policy3.2 Pro-active trade union policy3.3 Company map of industry 4.03.4 Some intermediate results4.1 Unemployment rates by skill level 1975 – 2015: Increasing problems of unskilled workers4.2 Modenization of vocational training4.3 Modenization of vocational training�4.5 Occupational profile of a repairperson today (blue) and tomorrow including further training (red) (Siemens)5. 1 Increasing wage inequality: Change of real hourly wage by deciles 1995-2015 in Germany 5.2 Evolution of coverage by collective agreements in Germany 1998 - 2016�5.3 Rate of coverage by collective agreements and share of low-wage work (2014)Conclusions