Austausch Zukunftsforscher @ KPMG · Pragmatic 18% Hopeful 15% ... Tools Workshops Reports Networks etc. ... informative, visionary, personal, intellectual, authoritative, balanced,

Future ReadinessAre you ready to rumble?

La Futura Dubai

Jumeirah Emirates Towers, Dubai21st November 2017

Dr. Heiko von der GrachtFuturist, KPMG GermanyAssociate Prof., University of Erlangen-Nuremberg

1© 2017 KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, ein Mitglied des KPMG-Netzwerks unabhängiger Mitgliedsfirmen, die KPMG International Cooperative („KPMG International“), einer juristischen Person schweizerischen Rechts, angeschlossen sind. Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Der Name KPMG und das Logo sind eingetragene Markenzeichen von KPMG International.

Willkommen zur Zukunft!

xxx

The tholos of the sanctuary of Athena Pronaia in Delphi, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tholos_Athena_Pronaia.JPG

From 800 BC:

prediction, fate, gods, foretelling …

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tholos_Athena_Pronaia.JPG

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tholos_Athena_Pronaia.JPG


Future Readiness

… to 2017: Paradoxes, mindsets, cognitive arguments.

Source: Kuosa, T. (2011) Evolution of futures studies, in: Futures, Vol. 43(3) 327-336


Future Readiness

Personal attitudes towards the future are diverse …

27%

Optimists

19%

Anxious

11%

Pragmatic

18%

Hopeful

15%

Pessimists

5%

Resigned

The magazine „Stern“ (#34/09) measured the attitudes of young adults towards their future:

Source: Online-questionnaire with 1,017 individuals (18-35 years) by Mindline, published in Stern, Nr. 34, 13.08.09, p. 66.


Future Readiness

… and industry perceptions of the future can differ a lot!

61,8

72,5 71,4

56,3

72,4

67,6

73,5

57,4

78,4

64,861,0

71,773,7

58,6 58,8

66,3 66,5 66,6

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

Pro

ba

bil

ity o

f o

ccu

rre

nce

Source: von der Gracht, H. (2013) Future Benchmarking (unpublished study; n=554 top level experts from EU industries, administration, academia)

2030: The uncertainty (i.e. degree of complexity + dynamics) has increased in

industry environment.

+22.1


Future Readiness

… but awareness for foresight is rising – The end of forecasting?!

Source: KPMG International (2017) Disrupt or grow: 2017 Global CEO Outlook Survey of 1,261 CEOs from 11 key industries: automotive, banking, infrastructure, insurance, investment management, life sciences, manufacturing, retail/consumer markets, technology, energy/utilities, telecom // 11 markets: Australia, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, US

69%Overall of CEOs are bringing new specialists into the management team to help them better understand potential threats.

65% of CEOs consider disruption to be an opportunity, not a threat, for their organization.

75%.CEOs even say their company is striving to be the disruptor in its sector.

75% of CEOs surveyed are spending much more time on scenario planning.

50 percent of CEOs admit that their organization may not yet have the sensory capabilities

and innovative processes to respond to rapid disruption.

https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/insights/2017/06/ceo-outlook.html


Future Readiness

Now, organizational foresight is spreading.Phase 1: Scanning Phase 2: Foresight Phase 3: Transfer

— Project definition

— Scanning & desk research

— Scoping …

— Scenarios

— Delphi

— Simulation …

— Strategy & roadmaps

— Communication & dialogue

— Matchmaking …

Experts

Literature

Policy/ government

Clients

StudiesSuppliers

Research

Networks

Academia

ProjectionActions,

competences

and actors

Value chain of knowledge Information Knowledge Understanding Actions

Future readiness?

Tools

Workshops

Reports

Networks

etc.Actions

Source: Horton, A. (1999). "Forefront: a simple guide to successful foresight." Foresight 1(1): S. 5-9./Voros, J. (2003). "A generic foresight process framework." Foresight 5(3): S. 10-21.


… but how future-proof is your organization?

The Easter Island dilemma

Gradual deforestation and extinction

of natural resources caused the

demise of the Rapa Nui civilization of

approx. 10,000 inhabitants. From the

year 1010, 10 million palm trees were

cut in order to build up more than

1,000 monumental statues. Today,

less than 30 seed plants can be found

on the Island.


Associated, complementary

developments

AR/VR developments

Human brain with direct

connection to VR

technology2040

2037

Quantum computing

widespread

2044

Digital l ife archive (Full-

l i fe recording)

2050

99% of all

knowledge new

compared to 2005

2058Supercomputing power –

Simulation of 1 bill ion human

brains in real-time

2065

Self-assembling

buildings

2069Beginning of

“Post-scarcity“

world

2070

Nuclear fusion

widespread

2081

Memory back-up

of brain

2098

Cash is banned

2099

Average working

time < 20h

2106

2146

2271

AI receives full

citizenship

AI government

Telepathic

society

VR arrives in

mass market

2016

Digital

smell

Motion simulator ride,

VR theme parks & pop-up stores

2018

2017

2019

AR becomes part

of VR (Dual use)

2020

G5 (5th

generation

mobile

networks )

2021

Hand-tracking

in mobile VR

2022

• Full-dive VR (Perfect immersion)

• VR fashion studio

• 10% of population with smart clothing online

• 1 tri l l ion sensors connected to web

2024

2025

• Traditional screen disappears

(Smart glasses)

• Mind-control for devices

• Medical nanobotsare being

developed

2023 • First implantable mobile phone

• 90% of world population with mobile phone

• Avatar to human interaction

in VR space

• Universal translator for

nearly all languages

2029Human-

level AI

2030

• „Holodeck“ full room simulation

• Mixed reality travelling

• 50% of households with 3D printer

• Breakthrough in brain-machine-interface

Future Readiness

You do know the trends and signals?!

Source: KPMG (2016) Neue Dimensionen der Realität [New dimensions of reality]


Future Readiness

… but are you conscious of your own mental traps … Really?

[…]

Decision

Estimates

Beliefs

Assumptions

Values

Premises

Principles

Zimbardo-Boyd-Time Perspective

Desirability bias

Effects of disposition

Hindsight biasMemory effect

Attitude toward time just as defining as

key personality traits

Nostalgics are looking skeptically into

future

Visionaries might be too ambitious and

stressful

Future and past are processes

in the same brain areas

Systematic reflection of past

drives projections of future

Inclination, after an event has

occurred, to see the event as having been predictable

“Knew-it-all-along effect“-effect

Tendency of investors to keep

shares of decreasing value / sell shares of increasing value

Loss is experienced twice as high than wins

Desirability significantly influences estimates on probability

of occurrence


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Cognitive_Bias_Codex_-_180+_biases,_designed_by_John_Manoogian_III_(jm3).png

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Cognitive_Bias_Codex_-_180+_biases,_designed_by_John_Manoogian_III_(jm3).png


Future Readiness

… and remember: “future” is no solo trip, but a “strategic conversation”

? ?

? ?

? ?

? ?

?

?

?Clockwise?

Counter-clockwise?

… or both, alternating?

• Clockwise = Dominance of right brain hemisphere (mainly

responsible for creativity, emotions, intuition)

• Counter-clockwise = left brain hemisphere (mainly responsible for

logic and rationality)

Interpretation Digital StrategyPerception

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Spinning_Dancer.gif

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Spinning_Dancer.gif


Future Readiness

Thus, measurement of future readiness should include more than self-assessment – A proposal:

Transfer of future proofing principles to the

organizational context: "actor potential“ (internal).

"Environmental sensitivity" (external) aims at

organizational environments: industry and global

AI tech, analyses language patterns, e.g. audio

parameters, tone, speed, variety of words,

combinations, intensity, syntax, etc.

Derivation of linguistic, psychological and

communication-related features

Relevant documents (e.g. annual report, press

releases, brochures, flyers) are scanned &

assessed using AI tech: e.g. 27 variables

like emotion, friendliness, informative, visionary,

personal, intellectual, authoritative, balanced, etc.

Future assessment:

e.g. benchmark individual (1) actor’s potential & (2) environment sensitivity

Future orientation:

e.g. document scans: decode your own or third-party documents

Future profile:

e.g. voice analysis –decode the secrets behind language

3D-Future

analysis2

1

3


Future Readiness

Measure internal and external sensitivity (Self-assessment)

• How sensitive are we regarding changes in our

environment and industry?

• Diagram shows maturity level of organizations regarding their

future awareness/ management of uncertainty.

• Planning has to be rethought. Sole extrapolation of historical data reaches its limits in times of disruption.

• Decision makers more often focus on actor-internal issues and industry, but lack contextual perspective (cross-industry).

• Internally-wise, “resources“ and “perspective” make the

difference.

Interpretation Digital StrategyFuture assessment

n=67

• Our organization is aware of potential new competitors, such as start-ups and newcomers from outside the industry.• Our management is very familiar with the opportunities and threats arising from developments in the environment and the competition

and from new technologies.

Dimension Transactional environment


Future Readiness

Measure external communication

Visionary

communication:References to the

future: An optimistic /

confident view

Initiative

communication:Target-oriented effect;

activating and action-

oriented formulations

Future-oriented

communicationBreakdown

Presentation of results on two axes: “Visionary“ = x-Axis

“Initiative“ = y-Axis

Tesla

Google

Facebook…

Future-oriented communication

Fortune 500

DAX 30

How do firms communicate? Results of a pilot study using AI technology to compare DAX 30 annual reports


Future Readiness

Measure individual appearance

I-Focus / Ego We-Focus /

Relationships

Emotional

Speeches with rather extreme Features

Cognitive / Rational

Optimistic Passive

Group orientation Integration of third

parties

Negations

How do CEOs communicate? Results of a pilot study using AI speech technology to compare DAX 30 annual speeches

Risks of mis-

match


Future Readiness

Lessons learned for the future

Six directions:

1

2

3. 4. 5. 6

Face next frontierParadigm III arises (Paradoxes, mindsets, cognition)

Integrate time perspectiveDiversity is key – also regarding attitude towards time

Target bias dilemmaDespite of the best scenarios, final decision can be wrong

Cross borders Open mindsets for cross-industry thinking

Match perceptionsAlign internal and external image / mental model

Assess future readinessYou can‘t manage what you don‘t measure


Future Readiness

Proposed dimensions of future readiness self-assessment

Structures

Resistance

Identification

Agility and flexibility

Value contribution

OrganizationTransactional

environment

Contextual

environment

Human nature, consciousness &

spirituality

Healthiness and MedTech

Society , family, liv ing world

Policy , institutions and

globality

Employees

Continuity

Globality/Locality

Tradition

Horizon

Resources PerspectiveProcesses

Substitutes

and new

competitors

Competition

within the sector

Value chain

Economics, management,

world of labour

Technology , media and

communication

Knowledge, learning,

understanding

Actor’s potential Environment sensitivity

Dimen-sions

Cluster

Subdimen-sions

A self-assessment should cover parts concerning „Actor’s potential“ (How future-proof is the organization?) and „Environment sensitivity“ (How

precise is my sectorial and industry understanding?)

10 Theses

14 Theses 14 Theses

32 Theses

13 Theses

10 ThesesTheses

Source: KPMG 2017


Future Readiness

Test your own future readiness from maturity level 1.00 (Beginner) to 5.00 (Champion) –exclusively and free of charge for La Futura community.

Try this hyperlink to access

survey: Future Readiness

Assessment at KPMG Atlas

platform.

Source: https://atlas.kpmg.de

https://survey.business-service-portal.com/xma/en/start/ol95a3e5a66a5a52c64fde1efdc3d1c134/

Thank you very much for your attention!

www.kpmg.de/socialmedia www.kpmg.de

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© 2017 KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, ein Mitglied des KPMG-Netzwerks unabhängiger Mitgliedsfirmen, die KPMG Internati onal Cooperative („KPMG International“), einer juristischen Person schweizerischen Rechts, angeschlossen sind. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Der Name KPMG und das Logo sind eingetragene Markenzeichen von KPMG International.

Contact

Dr. Heiko von der Gracht

Futurist

T +49 221 2073 - 1278

M +49 151 656 469 91

[email protected]

KPMG AG

Barbarossaplatz 1a

50674 Cologne, Germany

Dr. Heiko von der Gracht

Associate Prof.

T +49 911 / 5302-444

F +49 911 / 53 02-460

[email protected]

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg

Chair of Supply Chain Management

Lange Gasse 20

90403 Nuremberg, Germany

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Documents

Austausch Zukunftsforscher @ KPMG · Pragmatic 18% Hopeful 15% ... Tools Workshops Reports Networks etc. ... informative, visionary, personal, intellectual, authoritative, balanced,