Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven? ESV conference...Automotive Technology. Major drivers In developed countries extensive governmental programs to enhance traffic safety,

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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?

C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.

Automotive Technology

Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven? ESV conference

Stuttgart, June 15th 2009 Bernd Bohr

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1 Safety as top priority – examples of driving factors

2 Active and passive safety systems – markets today

3 Technology driving improved safety

4 Conclusions

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World

NAMWEU

Asia w/o Japan/KoreaJapan, Korea

Driver 1: Worldwide production forecast – growth in EM

15,413,0

10,011,8 13,1 14,0

2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017

16,7 15,111,9 13,4 14,5 16,0

2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017

14,7 15,812,7

15,3 16,1 16,3

2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017

16 15,6 14,718,4

22,428,4

2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017

3,4 3,7 3,5 4,3 5,2

2007 2008 2009 2013 2017

LAM73,0 70,3

58,570,1

79,890,0

2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017

Asia as main driver of worldwide PC fleet growth – share of small cars increases

* Source: Bosch AMP cycle I 2009

[m Vehicles]

0,8% p.a.0,6% p.a.

3,8% p.a.

6,9% p.a.

0,3% p.a.2,8% p.a.

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Driver 2: UrbanizationDevelopment of Urbanization worldwide, 1950 - 2030

Quellen: World Urbanization Prospects, UN 2007; WBCSD, C/CS Heinke

29 %

37 %

50 %

60 %

Portion of urban dwellers worldwide, %

47 %

30 %

43 %

Urbanization leads to traffic concentration – supporting segment shifts

Presenter

Presentation Notes

2008: Urbane Bevölkerung erstmals 50% der Weltbevöl-kerung; deutlich höheres Wachstum als Weltbevölkerung

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Major drivers

In developed countries extensive governmental programs to enhance traffic safety, reduce number of fatalities and decrease cost for society lead to focus on more efficient safety systems.

Segment shift toward smaller and lighter cars – driven by growth in emerging markets and urbanization lead to growing importance of passive and active safety systems.

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4 Conclusions

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Active and passive systems have strongly improved traffic safety – Emerging Markets demonstrate strong increase in traffic fatalities

Source: IRTAD 2009, Government of India: Department of road transport and highways

• graph w/o Estland, Lettland, Litauen, Malta and Cyprus, Data of Slovakia and Poland partially

0

25

50

75

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Europe EU25*

India

105,749

39,400

Seatbelt Airbag Sidebag ESP®ABS

`000 traffic fatalities

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Installation Rate by Production 2008


USA

1 Passenger cars & LCV <6t2 TCS includes ABS 3 ESP includes ABS and TCS

1

64% 55%97%

ABS TCS² ESP³

51% 49%

90%

ABS TCS² ESP³

Europe

8% 7%63%

ABS TCS² ESP³

China

33% 33%

89%

ABS TCS² ESP³

Japan

1% 1%16%

ABS TCS² ESP³

Brazil

35% 33%

76%

ABS TCS² ESP³

World

19%1%1%

ABS TCS² ESP³

India

ESP mandatory from

09/2011 onwards for all

vehicles up to 4,5 tons European Parliament

adopted legislation on

ESP for all new vehicles*

as per 11/2014

* M1, M2, M3, N1, N2, N3

ABS and Front-Airbag

mandatory from 2014

onwards for PC and LCV;

ABS for all vehicles

6% 8%

32%

Small Mini Compact

ESP-installation rates in small cars, world

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Source: Production volumes BP2009FF-REV Rol

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Road safety – today’s world

Small car segments – which are growing – have much lower share of active safety systems.

Emerging markets need to focus much more on safety. Continuation of the current trends will lead to a strong rise in fatalities, overcompensating the improvements in the US and EU.

Legislation plays key role to improve situation.

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4 Conclusions

11Automotive Technology



Further improvements through sensor fusion

All abbreviations within this presentationused for simplification purpose

Passive SafetyAirbag Pedestrian Protection

SteeringEPS

Brake

TCSESP

EHBSuspension

Interfaces to Active Suspension

2000 2010 Future20202003

Surrounding SensorsRadar Video

PSS

ESP-AFS

ACCLateral Guidance

Vehicle Guidance

Semi- Autonomous Driving

Vehicle Dynamics Management

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Optimal deceleration with Predictive Emergency Braking

Evaluation based on 1103 rear end crashes caused by cars Source: Bosch Analysis of GIDAS Database (2001-2006)

No brakingFull braking Partial braking

20% 49% 31%

Forward Collision Warning

PCW Warning by visual, acoustic and/or brake jerk

EBA Target braking with driver brake inputAEB Automatic braking to reduce speed of the vehicle and mitigate collision

PEBPCW

Predictive Collision Warning

EBAEmergency Braking Assist

AEBAutomatic Emergency Braking

Accident situation

Driver behaviour prior

to rear-end crashes

System assistance



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Support in critical situations - Evasive Steering Support

ESS-T*

Hazards

Getting off road

Incomplete maneuver (rear-end collision)

High risk of even more severe crashes

Situation

Optimal steering support to avoid front crashes

Reduced risk of crashes and injuries

Potential rear-end collision

Emergency braking is insufficient to avoid accident Evasive maneuver must be undertaken Driver inexperienced and stressed

Driver likely over-reacts or under-reacts

* Evasive Steering Support by Torque

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NavnsorPreventing Accidents – C2X and sensor fusionPositioning

Car-to-Roadside

Radar/Laser

Video

UltrasonicInfrared

Car-to-Car

Digital Map(lane geometry,

attributes& route information)

Ultrasonic: < 8 mVideo: < 80 mInfrared: < 150 mRadar/Laser: < 200 m

up to 2 km

DAB, GSM(TMC)

Car-to-Infrastructure

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Customer benefits

reduced size and weight by use of innovative packaging concept

concept based on standard Bosch components

Simplified mounting concept

Bosch invests in affordable technologies - e.g. Airbag Basic Line

Approach

development at low cost location with support from RB Germany

manufactured in the customer region

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Investing in road safety in emerging markets

RB-Investment in systems for low price vehicles – to support the change from 2-wheelers to affordable cars

Since 2007 ABS production in Brazil

In October 2009 ABS production in India

Supporting Motorization

Investing in the regions

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4 Conclusions

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Conclusion

Urbanization and growth of motorization in emerging markets drive growth of the smaller car segments.

High market penetration of passive and active safety systems – esp. belt, ESP, airbag – is crucial for achieving low injury and fatality rates.

Providing systems for LPV to support the change from 2-wheelers to affordable cars is important to improve road safety in emerging markets.

Future reduction of injuries and fatalities through advanced system with a network of sensors and intelligent actuators including C2X

Legislation plays an important role.

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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven? ESV conference...Automotive Technology. Major drivers In developed countries extensive governmental programs to enhance traffic safety,