Zukünftige Mobilität – aber wie? · 2016. 2. 5. · OMV Aktiengesellschaft Move & Improve. Zukünftige Mobilität – aber wie? Walter Böhme A3PS. Wien, 21. Juni 2011. 2 |OMV

OMV Aktiengesellschaft

Move & Improve.

Zukünftige Mobilität – aber wie?

Walter Böhme

A3PS. Wien, 21. Juni 2011

2 |OMV AG, Walter Böhme, May 10, 2011

Inhalt:

2. Targets for Car Manufacturers

1. Introduction

4. Summary

3. Targets for Fuel Suppliers

3 |OMV AG, Walter Böhme, July 22, 2011

Introduction

Sprinter100m

Middle-distance runner 10.000m

Long-distance runner 42.195m


Future? Mobility

Running disciplines Planning Horizon year

� 100m short term next few years

� 10.000m mid term 10 years (2020)

� 42.195m long term 40 years (2050)


Future Mobility?

� Today's Transportation Fuels

� Individual mobility (PC, gasoline, diesel)

� Busses (diesel)

� Trucks (diesel)

� Railways (diesel, electricity)

� Off-road (diesel, gasoline)

� Ships (diesel, bunker fuels)

� Airplanes (Jet, gasoline)


The Individual Mobility System

Customer

Car F

uel

OEM’s

small – large

efficient – inefficient

Infrastructure

provider

fuel price

convenience

legislation

Intelligent,

emotional

TCO, etc.


TCO is not the only basis for decicion making!

87 Cent40 Cent94 CentKosten pro km

25.967 Euro11.926 Euro28.109 EuroGesamtkosten

21.836 Euro9.248 Euro13.756 EuroRestwert

3.276 Euro2.604 Euro1.527 EuroStrom-/Kraftstoffkosten

1.800 Euro200 Euro200 EuroWartung

4.140 Euro2.310 Euro3.507 EuroVollkasko

2.241 Euro2.400 Euro2.241 EuroHaftpflicht

372 Euro120 Euro0 EuroSteuer

35.974 Euro13.540 Euro34.390 EuroGrundpreis

115 kW51 kW49 kWLeistung

MB C 180 CGI TAvantgarde

VW Polo 1.2 Trendline

MITSUBISHIi-MiEV

Quelle: Autobild Nov. 2010


New propulsion and/or mobility system?

Start End

LPT

e-car(p)

LPT

e-car(s)

PlaneTrain

LPT…local public transport

(p)…..private car

(s)…...shared car

Taxi

Car(p)

Taxi

Change: From car-ownership to user related mobility?

Car(s)


Inhalt:


1. Introduction

4. Summary



Rules/Regulation/Targets for OEMs

CO2-Targets*) Planning Horizon (year)

� ~ 130 g/km short term next few years

� ~ 95 g/km mid term 10 years (2020)

� ~ 0 ? g/km long term 40 years (2050)

*) TTW, new registration, weighted fleet


Target 2020

Source: ACEA, FEV


OEM’s CO2 improvements 2004/2009

http://www.transportenvironment.org/

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AkVhWMoZNE83dHZrTjRSWEtodkZoU2tsZ2NWdWZZWnc&hl=en&single=true&gid=5&output=html

25-

20-

15-

10-

5-BMW, 2009 Toyota, 2009

13

0 g

/km

Bubble Size = Market Share


Options for OEM’s

Model mix:

� Dieselization

� Downshifting

� Offsetting with BEV and/or FCEV

New Technology:

� ICE – Efficiency measures, Downsizing, Hybridization

� PHEV – Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

� BEV – Battery Electric Vehicles

� FCEV – Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Short term

Long term

Short term

Long term

EU Hydrogen FCEV Coalition

Final Project Documentation - June 2010

▪ Series hybrid

configuration of electric and

ICE drive

▪ Smaller battery capacity

than BEV, (Li-ion)

▪ Short range (typically 40-

60 km) electric driving

▪ Vehicle can be plugged-in

to charge from the grid

▪ Small ICE-based generator

for larger range (‘range

extender’)

▪ Purely electric drive

▪ Large battery capacity,

Li-ion technology

▪ Short range (typically 100-

200 km)

▪Only charging of battery

from the grid while

stationary1

▪ Series configuration of fuel

cell system and electric

drive

▪ Fuel cell stack based on

(PEM) technology

▪Hydrogen tank pressure

typically 350 or 700 bar

▪Medium range (typically

400-500 km)

▪Conventional internal

combustion engine

▪No dependence on

electric infrastructure

▪High fuel consumption

and exhaust emissions

▪High range typically 800-

1200 km

▪ Parallel hybrid

configuration of electric and

ICE drive; also known as

hybrid electric vehicle

(HEV)

▪ ICE is primary mover of

the vehicle with support

from small electric motor

▪ Small battery charged by

the ICE

▪ Fully electric driving only at

low speed for smaller

distances (<5 km)

▪Better fuel economy than

conventional ICE

Different powertrain technologies are analyzed: ICE, FCEV, BEV, PHEV

1 Exchange of battery pack is possible, but not considered in this study

Fuel cell electric vehicle

(FCEV)

Plug-in hybrid electric

vehicle (PHEV)

Battery electric vehicle

(BEV)

Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle

Current technology (2010) Advanced (2015/20)

Power battery

Tank

FC stack

Power electronics

E-motor

Trans-mission

E-motor

Trans-mission

Energy battery

Plug-in charger

E-motor

Trans-missionTank

Gene-rator

ICE

Energy battery

Plug-in charger

Power electronics Power

elec-tronics

BOP

Tank

ICE

Trans-mission

E-motor

Trans-mission

Tank

Gene-rator

ICE

Power battery

Power elec-tronics

Transmission Battery FC powertrainElectric powertrainICE powertrain

SOURCE: Coalition workshops, Working team analysis


Hybridization

70 g/kmCO2 emission

3,0 Liter NEFZ (ECE-R 101) Fuel

consumption

2 electric motor, 160 kWE-Engine

V8, 368 kWICE-Engine

Hybrid-Supersportscar

Porsche 918 Spyder

Car



To achieve the G8 target of -80% CO2 by 2050, the road transport sector has to abate 95% of its current emissions1

Total abatement

EU-27 total GHG emissions2 Sector

SOURCE: www.roadmap2050.eu

1 80% CO2 reduction thought to be required to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm and prevent temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius

2 Large efficiency improvements are already included in the baseline based on the IEA WEO 2009, especially for industry

3 Abatement estimates within sector based on Global GHG Cost Curve

4 CCS applied to 50% of large industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)

Gt CO2e per year

0,5 0,6 0,7

0,9 0,9 1,0

0,1

0,40,1

5,9

0.9 0.9

1.1

0.2

0.9

2030 2050 abated32010

5.3

1.2

1990

1.2

0.2

1.2

0

5.4

0.30.3

0.1

1.0

-0.3

1.2

0.4

2050

1.0

0.3

5.2

0.5

0.6

-80%

-0.25 Gt CO2eForestry

20%Agriculture

100%Waste

95%Buildings

40%Industry4

50%Air & sea transport

95% to 100%Power

95%Road transport

IEA forecastsSource:



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600

CO2 emissionsgCO2 / km

Rangekm

Electric vehicles (BEV, PHEV, FCEV) can achieve near zero CO2 emissions with BEVs showing limitations in driving range

2010

ICE – gasoline1

2050

ICE – diesel1

2010

BEV

2050

2050

1 ICE range for 2050 based on fuel economy improvement and assuming tank size stays constant.

Assuming 24% CO2 reduction due to biofuels by 2050

FCEV

2010

2050

2010

2010

2050

PHEV

C/D SEGMENT

Low emissions and high range

This study assumes biofuels

blending in gasoline and diesel

is limited to 24% beyond 2030

SOURCE: Clean team sanitized data, coalition workshops, Working team analysis



FCEVs can close the performance gaps to the ICE

1 Bars represent range of performance across reference segments

2 Fast charging; implies higher infrastructure costs, reduced battery lifetime and lower battery load

Similar performance Differentiated performance1

▪ Acceleration

▪ Curb weight

▪ Payload

▪ Cargo volume

Poor Excellent

Top speed, km/h

100 120 140 160 180 200 220

ICE

BEV

FCEV

Range, km

200 1,100 1,2001,000600500400300100 900800700

BEV

FCEV

Refueling time, min/hr (logarithmic scale)

30 min1 hr5 hr10 hr 5 min 1 min

BEV

FCEV

ICE

ICE

10 min2 hr

BEV2

C/D SEGMENT

2015




BEVs and FCEVs can abate 95% of the CO2 emissions

Balanced scenario

Range of scenarios1

0 40 60 1208020 100

PHEV

ICE diesel

ICE gasoline

FCEV

BEV

2050

1 Scenarios refer to a range of potential futures of varying electricity decarbonization and biofuel implementation:

Balanced - Decarbonized electricity sector via renewables, CCS and nuclear, and 24% well-to-wheel reduction in diesel and gasoline CO2 footprint

High CO2 - Central SMR for H2 production, EU 2010 electricity mix, and 6% well-to-wheel reduction in diesel and gasoline CO2 footprint

2 C/D segment emission limit set to 4% of current 2010 vehicle emissions to achieve 95% CO2 reduction allow 20% more vehicles in 2050

Technologies required for 95% CO2 reduction target

-95% CO2 reduction2

Reduced PHEV and ICE emissions possible with greater use of biofuels

Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions, g CO2/km C/D SEGMENT

25% FCEV WORLD



Inhalt:


1. Introduction

4. Summary


21 |OMV AG Böhme 2011.01.19

Rules/Regulation/Targets for Fuel Suppliers

Targets Planning Horizon (year)

� Substitution (+X%) by the short term next few years

use of Biofuels

� Substitution and mid term 10 years (2020)

6%-10% CO2 reduction

� ? (~0) CO2 free fuels long term 40 years (2050)

22 |OMV AG Böhme 2011.01.19

Alternative Fuels Roadmap

ElectricFossil Fuel

Renewable Fuel

DieselEtOH

FAME

CNG

LPG

GTLCTL

e-

H2 HVO

BTL

Biogas

Veg. Oil

EtOH2nd

E85

ETBE

SNG

Fossil Mix Either/or Renewable

23 |OMV AG Böhme 2011.01.19



� Substitution (+X%) by the short term next few years

use of Biofuels

✔

DieselEtOH

FAME

CNG

LPG

GTL

CTL

e-

H2 HVO

BTL

Biogas

Veg. Oil

EtOH2nd

E85

ETBE

SNG

✔✔

✔

Support fulfillment of target

✔

24 |OMV AG Böhme 2011.01.19



� Substitution and mid term 10 years (2020)

6%-10% CO2 reduction

�

DieselEtOH

FAME

CNG

LPG

GTL

CTL

e-

H2 HVO

BTL

Biogas

Veg. Oil

EtOH2nd

E85

ETBE

SNG

✔✔

✔

Against or no contribution to the target

✔ ✔

�✔

25 |OMV AG Böhme 2011.01.19



� ? (~0) CO2 free fuels long term 40 years (2050)

�

DieselEtOH

FAME

CNG

LPG

GTL

CTL

e-

H2 HVO

BTL

Biogas

Veg. Oil

EtOH2nd

E85

ETBE

SNG✔✔ ✔

Against or no contribution to the target

�✔

�

� �

�✔



Ramp-up of FCEVs, BEVs and PHEVs depend on the “world” after 2020

"Zero emission –FCEV dominated"

"Zero emission –xEV dominated"

"Non-zero emission – conventional"

1 2 3

Total EU car park, million vehicles

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

20502040203020202010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

20502040203020202010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

20502040203020202010

BEV

ICE diesel

FCEV

PHEV

ICE gasoline

SOURCE: Coalition workshops, Working team analysis

50 25 5



Electric powertrains can become cost competitive with ICEover the next decades

0.18

0.18

0.200.21

0.24

0.20 0.19

0.200.18

0.18 0.18

0.180.18

0.190.18

2020 2030 2050

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO1)EUR/km

0.0

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.05

0.15

FCEV BEV PHEV ICE - gasoline ICE - diesel

1 Based on 15 years vehicle lifetime, 12,000 km annual driving distance, no tax

2 Delta between FCEV TCO and ICE gasoline TCO calculated in EUR/month/vehicle

TCO Delta2

EUR/month64 23 4

C/D SEGMENT

25% FCEV WORLD

0.25



Inhalt:


1. Transportation Fuels

4. Summary



Summary

� Customer will have a choice out of a portfolio of power trains and he will decide for that propulsion system, which fits best to him,

� OEM’s have several options to fulfill their CO2 targets, the preferred option could be different, time and technology wise,

� PHEV and BEV have low infrastructure barriers up to a certain market share,

� FCEV have high infrastructure barriers, but it’s the only system which is comparable to existing cars,

� Only electric vehicles (BEV, FCEV, (PHEV+Biofuel)) can achieve near zero CO2 emissions,

� Future Mobility (after 2020) is highly dependent on future frameconditions.


Thank you very much for your attention!

Documents

Zukünftige Mobilität – aber wie? · 2016. 2. 5. · OMV Aktiengesellschaft Move & Improve. Zukünftige Mobilität – aber wie? Walter Böhme A3PS. Wien, 21. Juni 2011. 2 |OMV