中国基本原材料与金属矿业日报

华泰研究

20 September 2019

Mining the Truth 王帅 龚劼 杨轩

许晟洁

李海鹏

bruce.wang@htsc.com

gongjie@htsc.com

yangxuan@htsc.com

xushengjie@htsc.com

lihaipeng@htsc.com

新闻速递

水泥

水泥价格跟踪

山东省: 农忙影响，鲁南、苏北、皖北袋装水泥需求不足。不过天气尚可散装需求相对平稳，因熟料资源趋紧，熟料采购成本上升，9月 9日起，枣庄泉头 42.5级散装水泥价格率先上调 10元/吨。听闻厂家计划明日继续推涨 10元/吨。枣临区域其余主导企业报价暂稳。

河南省: 郑州水泥需求恢复仍然不多，当地和周边水泥企业多数仍然停产，本周水泥价格暗降 10-20元/吨，主流价位变动并不明显，主要是高位报价回落。当前 P.O 42.5散装到位价 460元/吨；P.S 32.5袋装 380-400元/吨，变动不大。

江苏省: 9月下旬，江苏苏锡常地区水泥价格计划上调 20-30元/吨，下游需求表现较好，企业发货能达产销平衡，库存在正常或偏低水平。

浙江省: 9月 15日，浙江南方、红狮对甬台温方向各品种水泥报价通知上调 30元/吨。台州、温州个别中转库 9月 18日起水泥报价通知上调 30元/吨。海螺计划 9月 20日起对宁波、台州、温州跟随上调 30元/吨。目前温州大厂 P.O 42.5散装主流出厂价 420元/吨左右，中转库出库 410-440元/吨。

福建省: 9月 20日，福建地区水泥企业将公布价格上调 30元/吨，雨水天气减少，下游需求明显增加，企业发货多在 8-9成，个别能达产销平衡，且水泥企业停窑限产执行较好，库存得到消化。

广东省: 福建水泥价格已经上涨，梅州主导企业各等级袋装水泥于 9月 1日上调 20元/吨，后趋于平稳。9月 20日梅州主导企业散装水泥价格计划上调 20元/吨，23日，袋装计划上调 30元/吨。

公司行业新闻

工信部：当前水泥行业运行情况总体平稳

今年 1-8月，全国水泥产量 14.7亿吨，同比增长 7%，其中 8月当月水泥产量 2.1亿吨，同比增长 5.1%。1-7月，全国水泥行业实现营业收入 5425亿元，同比增长 16.2％，比整个工业增速高 11.3个百分点，利润总额 997亿元，同比增长 27.2％，比整个工业增速高 28.9个百分点。全国供需基本均衡。今年以来基础设施补短板项目加强，房地产投资维持较高水平，对水泥需求继续提供了较强的支撑。从近几年情况来看，全国水泥产量基本在 22亿-24亿吨之间波动，整体处于平台期。

纸业

原纸价格

9月 17日，江西理文箱板纸、广东理文 Q级箱板纸价格上调 50元/吨。

9月 18日，重庆理文箱板纸报价上调 50-80元/吨。H级特优质牛卡 175g报 4750元/吨。

9月 17日，东莞玖龙牛卡纸、再生牛卡纸价格上调 50元/吨，太仓玖龙地龙牛卡纸、地龙再生牛卡纸上调 30元/吨，天津玖龙再生牛卡纸上调 30元/吨。

9月 17日，东莞玖龙、天津玖龙、重庆玖龙、四川乐山玖龙瓦楞纸价格上调 50元/吨，太仓玖龙海龙、地龙瓦楞纸上调 30元/吨。

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9月 19日，泉州玖龙瓦楞纸价格上调 50元/吨。

废旧黄板纸价格

9月 18日，泉州玖龙国废黄板纸采购价上调 30元/吨。A级 2000元/吨，B级 1960元/吨。

9月 18日，河北永新玖龙纸业 9月 18日起 AA级、A级、B级、边角料、啤酒箱、统货（C级）下调 20元。

玻璃

价格跟踪

9月 18日，秦皇岛弘耀、山东德州凯盛晶华、安徽台玻、吴江南玻、神木瑞诚提价 1元/重量箱。

9月 19日，石家庄玉晶、河北迎新、河北望美实业、山东滕州金晶、威海蓝星、河南洛玻、东海台玻、宁夏金晶、广西南宁浮法提价 1元/重量箱。

9月 19日，浙江旗滨、醴陵旗滨提价 1元/重量箱。

9月 19日，河南中联提价 2元/重量箱。

9月 19日，四川威利斯提价 40元/吨。

9月 20日，河北正大、河北长城、天津中玻、山东巨润、昆山台玻计划提价 1元/重量箱。

9月 21日，中建材佳星计划提价 1元/重量箱。

9月 22日，河北鑫利计划提价 1元/重量箱。

注：1重量箱玻璃为 50kg，约合 5平方米 4mm厚玻璃。

装置动态

9月 18日，陕西神木瑞诚玻璃有限公司浮法玻璃二线 800tpd生产线停产冷修，计划 2020年 1月份试生产。

9月 23日，本溪玉晶玻璃有限公司本溪二线 850tpd白玻生产线预计冷修。

煤炭

公司行业新闻

8月份伊金霍洛旗生产原煤 1520万吨，同比增长 9%

8 月份伊金霍洛旗共生产原煤 1520 万吨，同比增加 127 万吨，增幅 9%；其中，神东公司生产原煤 659 万吨，同比减少 42 万吨，减幅 6%；地方煤矿生产原煤 861万吨，同比增加 261万吨，增幅 24%。1-8月份全旗共生产原煤 1.19亿吨，同比减少 116万吨，减幅 1%。8月份伊金霍洛旗共销售原煤 1488 万吨，同比增加 9%；1-8月份全旗共销售原煤 1.16亿吨，同比减少 1%；截止 8月底煤炭均价约 323元/吨，较去年同期下降 10元/吨，同比减幅 3%。

8月份宁夏规模以上工业原煤产量 622.3万吨，同比增长 2.9%

8月份宁夏规模以上工业原煤产量 622.3万吨，同比增长 2.9，环比增长 1.52%；1-8月份全区规模以上工业原煤产量 4850万吨，同比下降 1.0%。1-8月份全区规模以上工业原煤销售量 4495.2万吨，同比增长 1.1%；截止 8月末原煤库存 377.4万吨，库存周转天数为 20天。1-8月份全区规模以上工业焦炭产量 524万吨，同比增长 8.9%。8月份全区工业发电量 157.5亿千瓦时，同比增长 13.6%；1-8 月份全区工业发电量 1117.8 亿千瓦时，同比增长 7.2%。1-8 月份全区火力发电量 920.8 亿千瓦时，同比增长9.4%。

8月份中国神华商品煤产量同比下降 7.9%。煤炭销量同比下降 5.2%

8月份中国神华商品煤产量 2340万吨，同比下降 7.9%，环比下降 3.70%；煤炭销售量为 3830万吨，同比下降 5.2%，环比下降2.54%。1-8月份商品煤累计产量 19310万吨，同比下降 1.4%；煤炭累计销售量 29470万吨，同比下降 2%。8月份发电量 131.1亿千瓦时，同比下降 54.1%；1-8月累计总发电量 1059.4 亿千瓦时，同比下降 44.3%。8 月份总售电量 122.2 亿千瓦时，同比下降 54.3%；1-8 月份累计总售电量 992.8 亿千瓦时，同比下降 44.4%。8 月份商品煤产量同比下降的主要原因：受采掘场征地进度的影响，胜利一号露天矿商品煤产量下降；受生产证件续期办理进度的影响，万利一矿商品煤产量下降。

山西晋城：一些煤矿国庆期间要主动停产

山西晋城发布煤矿安全生产通知，在建国 70 周年之际，要充分保障煤矿安全生产活动，通知明确要出重拳治理煤矿安全；煤矿企业要严格落实安全生产主体责任，尤其是一些地质灾害严重、安全基础管理薄弱、安全生产不放心的煤矿，在国庆期间主动停产停建，采取措施，全面整顿；9月 16日至 10月 31日期间，煤矿发生安全生产事故一律从严复产复建，一律从重追究责任。

太原市淘汰焦化产能 310万吨

太原市打赢蓝天保卫战行动计划：太原市将在年底前完成省下达的环境空气质量改善目标以及二氧化硫、氮氧化物主要污染物排放总量控制指标；市区环境空气质量综合指数在全国 168 个重点城市排名中力争退出后 10，市区环境空气质量二氧化硫平均浓度要同比下降 30%；全市淘汰焦化产能 310 万吨，包括古交华润二厂 180 万吨、清徐迎宪焦化厂 50 万吨、娄烦万光焦化厂 40万吨、娄烦利民焦化厂 40万吨。

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钢铁

价格跟踪

9月 19日 Myspic综合指数报 139.96点，较上一交易日下跌 0.28%。铁矿石价格指数（Mylpic）综合指数报 104点，较上一交易日上涨 0.29%。长材指数报 159.17 点，较上一交易日下跌 0.29%。扁平材指数为 121.59 点，较上一交易日下跌 0.28%。热卷价格指数较上一交易日下跌 0.45%，中厚板价格指数较上一交易下跌 0.19%。全国 25 个市场螺纹 HRB400（20mm）均价为 3,868元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 24元/吨。全国 24个市场热轧 4.75mm均价 3,740元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 20元/吨。全国 24个主要市场 20mm普中板平均价格为 3,832元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 10元/吨。

公司行业新闻

吕梁：打赢蓝天保卫战，重点区域严禁新增钢铁产能

吕梁市打赢蓝天保卫战 2019年行动计划：吕梁市区 PM2.5年均浓度达 51ug/m3，同比下降 1.9%，优良天数比例达 72%以上；中阳、柳林、方山三县城区 PM2.5年均浓度同比下降 2%以上，交城、文水、汾阳、孝义四县市城区 PM2.5年均浓度同比下降5%以上，交口、石楼、临县、兴县、岚县城区 PM2.5年均浓度同比下降 2%；重点区域严禁新增钢铁、焦化、铸造、水泥、平板玻璃等产能；确有必要新建的，要严格执行产能置换实施办法； 2019年底前，全市钢铁企业（文水海威钢铁（炼铁 483.5万吨，炼钢 330万吨）、山西中阳钢铁（炼铁 388万吨，炼钢 535万吨））按国家标准完成钢铁行业有组织和无组织排放环节超低排放改造，并积极推进运输方式调整。

泉州市印发钢铁行业超低排放改造实施方案

泉州市钢铁行业超低排放改造实施方案：新建（含搬迁）钢铁项目原则上要达到超低排放水平，现有钢铁企业分步推进超低排放改造，在 2025年底前基本完成所有生产环节；8月 26日前，对依法依规应淘汰的落后产能和不符合相关强制性标准要求的企业或设施，应坚决淘汰，不再要求实施超低排放改造；2019年底前，各钢铁企业按照改造目标和要求制定全面的超低改造计划；2021 年底前，全市钢铁企业烧结、球团工序有组织排放源基本完成超低排放改造；2023 年底前，全市钢铁企业炼焦、炼铁、炼钢工序有组织排放源、物料储存基本完成超低改造；2025年底前，全市钢铁企业其他工序有组织排放源、各工序物料输送与生产工艺过程无组织排放、大宗物料产品运输等基本完成超低排放改造，污染排放监测监控系统基本建成。

宁钢 1580立方米高炉开工奠基

宁夏钢铁集团 9月 16日举行 1580立方米高炉开工奠基仪式。宁钢 1580立方米炼铁高炉及配套设施的建设预计投资 5.68亿元，整体工期预计于 2020 年 8 月底全部完成。该项目建成后，宁钢将构建全流程高效率、低成本的生产运行体系，构建全流程的能力匹配、动态有序、精准协同的高效化生产运行系统。

金属

公司行业新闻

First Quantum Minerals draws takeover interest

First Quantum Minerals, the owner of Africa’s biggest copper mine, is drawing preliminary takeover interest from global miners

after losing half its value over the past five years, according to the sources. First Quantum, which has a market capitalization

of CAD7.7bn (USD5.8bn), is working with defense advisers to examine its options, though it hasn’t yet received any formal

takeover offers. First Quantum controls the open-pit Kansanshi mine in Zambia, which has 340ktpa copper production

capacity. The company has been at loggerheads with the government of the southern African country over issues from royalty

increases to the planned introduction of a sales tax. It also owns other assets around the world including the Sentinel copper

operation in Zambia, Las Cruces in Spain and the Ravensthorpe nickel mine in Western Australia. First Quantum also started

ramping up production at the giant Cobre Panama copper development project in the central American country earlier this

year. Copper, used in everything from automobiles to plumbing pipes, has dropped in five of the past six months as trade-

war fears heat up and demand appears to be slowing in top-user China. Still, the metal’s long-term prospects are seen as

strong amid under-investment in new mine supply and surging usage in electric vehicles.

Philippines to decide on mine suspension appeals before year-end

The Philippines' Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) said on Wednesday that it has granted a breather of another six

months or until the year-end to five suspended mining companies, including two nickel ore producers, to rectify previous

violations of environmental regulations before they can be allowed to resume operations. The five companies are nickel ore

producers Wellex Mining and Aam-Phil Natural Resources Exploration and Development, chromite producers Krominco and

Mt. Sinai Mining Exploration and Development, and iron ore producer Ore Asia Mining and Development. The industry

watchdog has already recommended to the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) to lift suspension of

nickel ore producer Zambales Diversified Metals and iron ore producer Strong Built Mining Development. Recently, the DENR

lifted the suspension orders issued against nickel ore producers such as Berong Nickel, Carrascal Nickel and Emir Mineral

Resources. The suspended nickel miners, in particular, have appealed to the MGB to speed up resolution of their cases, as

they hope to be able to resume operations before Indonesia's ban on nickel ore exports begins in 2020. Philippine nickel

miners are likely to ramp up ore output by next year, but their production capacity is limited by a number of factors, including

government-imposed mining curbs.

Apple to include part made of 100% recycled rare earths in new iPhones

Tech giant Apple has revealed it will use 100% recycled rare earth elements in a key component included in its new iPhones.

As outlined in the environmental reports for the new iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, and iPhone 11 Pro Max, the devices’ “Taptic

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Engine,” which allows iPhones to mimic a physical button click despite being a flat pane of glass, will be manufactured with

recovered rare earths. The part represents around 25% of the total rare earth elements used in each iPhone, the company

said, adding that move was “not related” to trade tensions but could help it maintain a steady supply. The company has also

made headlines recently due to its attempts to buy long-term supplies of cobalt directly from miners. The move is seen as a

way to ensure sufficient supply of the metal, an essential ingredient in the batteries that power its phones and tablets. Apple

has increased its engagement with cobalt miners in recent years due to scrutiny from international human rights

organizations. According to Amnesty International, about 20% of the cobalt mined in Congo is extracted by hand by informal

miners including children, often in dangerous conditions.

SolGold’s projects safe after Ecuador courts rejects mining referendum

Doubts around the fate of SolGold’s projects in Ecuador have been cleared up after the country’s Constitutional Court rejected

a fresh request to make mining permits subject to popular approval. The ruling, covering the southern province of Azuay,

said the petition to seek local consultation to ban mining was too broad and potentially misleading. Further, it ruled that any

referendum which could result in other nationally enjoyed constitutional rights being restricted, were inadmissible. The

decision follows a June verdict that rejected community consultation in Imbabura, the northern province that is home to

SolGold’s flagship copper and gold Cascabel project – potentially one of Ecuador’s biggest mines. The resolutions represent

a victory for companies seeking to extract some of the world’s largest untapped copper reserves. According to SolGold, they

also set a “strong precedent” for any future petitions for consultation that imply changes to the country’s constitution.

The Cascabel copper-gold project has piqued the interest of major miners, including BHP. The world’s largest mining

company last year acquired a 6.1% stake in SolGold, increasing its exposure to copper. The move pushed Australia’s largest

gold producer, Newcrest Mining, to up its holding in the company, consolidating its position as SolGold’s top shareholder.

While Ecuador has gained ground as a mining investment destination in the past two years, existing and future projects risk

delays and potential halts due to growing local opposition to the extraction of the country’s resources, a report by Fitch

Solutions shows. As mining projects face headwinds from rising tensions, investors’ courage will be tested, the study

concluded, which could thwart Ecuador’s plan to attract USD3.7bn in mining investments over the next two years, significantly

up from the USD270mn it received in 2018.

Uganda to invite companies to redevelop former copper mine

Uganda is attempting to reopen an idled mine estimated to contain 4mt ore by inviting international firms to present bids for

a production sharing deal. This is not the first time the Uganda has tried to revive the mine, near the border with the

Democratic Republic of Congo. Previous efforts, however, were thwarted by a commodities downturn and a failed 2013 deal

with a group led by China’s Tibet Hima Mining, which had vowed to invest USD175mn in the asset. The government cancelled

the 25-year concession in 2013 on grounds that Tibet Hima had failed to execute its mandate as outlined in the permit. The

Chinese firm sued the government and is seeking compensation of at least USD33n in damages. The country decided to

retry bringing Kilembe back to life in April this year. At the time, authorities said 28 companies had expressed interest in the

project.

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价格、估值及表现

价格走势

走势(%) 原材料 最新价格 一日 一周 一月 三月 一年 年初至今

钢铁

62%铁精粉 (USD/t) 103 (1.0) 2.8 (0.7) (21.8) 13.5 2.5

大连期货交易所铁矿石价格 (RMB/t) 661 (0.7) - 5.5 (15.9) 30.5 33.7

唐山钢坯 (RMB/t) 3,440 - - (15.3) (15.3) (15.3) 2.7

上期所热轧 (RMB/t) 3,528 (0.4) (0.1) 0.1 2.8 na na

上期所螺纹 (RMB/t) 3,513 (0.8) 0.8 1.4 1.2 na na

螺纹钢现货 (RMB/t) 3,892 (0.2) 0.3 1.4 (1.9) (15.7) (1.7)

热轧现货 (RMB/t) 3,760 (0.2) (0.1) (0.9) (1.4) (13.7) (0.1)

中厚板现货 (RMB/t) 3,842 (0.1) (0.1) (1.3) (2.4) (14.5) 0.0

金属

布伦特原油 (USD/barrel) 64 (0.8) 5.3 9.2 3.1 (19.0) 19.0

LME 铜(USD/t) 5,790 (0.9) (0.1) 1.2 (0.5) (2.2) (2.7)

LME 铝 (USD/t) 1,761 (0.1) (1.9) 0.1 1.9 (11.9) (5.5)

LME 锌 (USD/t) 2,353 (0.7) 0.5 4.6 (9.1) 2.3 (6.6)

LME 镍(USD/t) 17,118 (2.0) (5.6) 5.5 46.5 40.8 61.4

LME 锡(USD/t) 16,859 (1.7) (3.3) 1.6 (11.7) (11.5) (13.6)

Comex 黄金 (USD/oz) 1,503 (0.3) 0.4 (0.6) 11.6 25.4 17.3

Comex 白银 (USD/oz) 18 0.6 (0.1) 5.2 21.5 27.6 15.9

SHFE 阴极铜 (RMB/t) 47,240 (0.3) (0.3) 1.7 2.0 (2.1) (1.9)

SHFE 铝 (RMB/t) 14,305 (0.0) (0.7) 0.6 3.3 (0.9) 5.6

SHFE 金(RMB/g) 345 0.4 0.3 (0.2) 13.6 29.7 21.5

SHFE 铅 (RMB/t) 16,825 (1.3) (2.9) 0.9 3.5 (10.5) (9.3)

SHFE 银 (RMB/kg) 4,370 0.5 (1.3) 4.7 21.8 28.1 20.3

氧化铝: 河南 (RMB/t) 2,579 - 0.5 4.4 (16.5) (23.0) (12.1)

氧化铝: 山西 (RMB/t) 2,579 - 0.2 5.7 (16.0) (22.8) (11.8)

氧化铝: 贵阳 (RMB/t) 2,515 - - 3.7 (17.8) (20.8) (16.0)

LME 库存: 铜 (th ton) 296 (1.2) (4.7) (10.9) 18.0 38.1 127.5

LME 库存: 铝 (th ton) 904 (0.2) (1.4) (6.7) (13.6) (12.7) (28.6)

LME 库存: 锌 (th ton) 65 4.4 1.4 (11.5) (34.2) (69.9) (50.2)

LME 库存: 镍 (th ton) 162 (1.1) 3.6 11.3 (3.3) (30.4) (22.3)

煤炭

秦皇岛 5500K煤价 (RMB/t) 582 - 0.2 1.4 (1.4) (6.7) 0.9

CCI 5500 (RMB/t) 587 - 0.2 1.4 (1.3) (6.7) 1.4

CCI 5000 (RMB/t) 518 - 0.2 2.4 0.8 (6.2) 3.6

CCI 进口 4700 (RMB/t) 453 (0.1) 0.5 2.0 2.9 (8.4) 4.6

CCI 进口 5500 (RMB/t) 510 0.0 (0.3) 1.0 4.1 (16.6) (7.3)

柳林 4号焦煤现货 (RMB/t) 1,550 - (1.9) (1.9) (6.1) (4.3) (11.9)

天津港准一级冶金焦 (RMB/t) 2,000 - - (4.8) (9.1) (22.3) (13.0)

大连期货交易所焦炭 (RMB/t) 1,985 0.2 6.2 0.1 (1.6) na na

大连期货交易所焦煤 (RMB/t) 1,339 (0.8) 0.1 0.6 (0.1) na na

郑州商品交易所 动力煤 (RMB/t) 588 0.2 (0.8) 1.2 (1.1) na 2.6

其他商品

全国水泥均价（元/吨） 439 0.5 1.5 0.2 1.3 (6.6)

箱板纸全国均价（元/吨） 4,066 0.3 1.0 (4.8) (22.2) (12.9)

瓦楞纸全国均价（元/吨） 3,594 0.2 0.5 (4.8) (24.4) (13.6)

郑州期货交易所玻璃价格 （元/吨） 1,497 0.1 (2.5) (0.9) 2.5 3.0 15.1

Source: Bloomberg, Fenwei, Digital Cement, SXCoal, Mysteel, Wind, Huatai HK Research

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估值

市值 PE PB EVEBITDA ROE (%)

股票 代码 百万美元 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E

煤炭 中国神华-H 1088 HK 41,667 6.5 6.4 0.8 0.8 3.6 3.5 12.6 11.9

中煤能源-H 1898 HK 5,572 5.5 4.8 0.4 0.4 5.6 5.1 7.4 7.9

伊泰煤业-H 3948 HK 2,232 3.9 3.7 0.4 0.4 6.0 5.7 11.4 11.2

兖州煤业-H 1171 HK 5,402 4.2 5.2 0.7 0.7 5.7 6.5 17.1 12.7

首钢福山-H 639 HK 1,158 7.4 6.6 0.6 0.6 4.1 3.7 7.9 9.1

Consol Energy CNX US 1,611 13.7 20.3 na na 5.3 5.0 na na

Coal India Coal IN 16,717 7.2 7.0 5.3 4.2 3.8 3.6 35.1 39.3

水泥

海螺水泥-H 914 HK 31,477 9.2 12.8 1.7 1.6 5.6 7.5 18.9 12.6

中国建材 3323 HK 7,725 5.9 7.8 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.6 11.6 8.2

华润水泥 1313 HK 7,270 9.2 10.1 1.4 1.3 na na 15.3 13.0

金隅股份-H 2009 HK 3,205 5.2 4.8 0.4 0.3 10.3 10.3 7.1 7.2

冀东水泥 000401 CH 3,159 7.3 6.3 1.3 1.1 4.1 4.0 17.8 17.4

华新水泥 600801 CH 5,886 6.4 6.3 2.0 1.6 4.2 4.3 30.7 25.9

CRH CRH LN 27,057 14.2 13.0 1.5 1.4 7.7 7.5 10.6 10.6

Cemex CEMEXCPOMM 6,063 230.6 182.3 11.4 10.7 50.8 48.1 4.9 5.9

Ultra Tech UTCEM IN 15,113 47.8 28.4 3.8 3.1 20.0 13.4 7.9 11.1

拉法基豪瑞 LHN VX 30,694 13.5 12.6 1.0 1.0 7.1 7.0 7.8 8.1

Indocement INTP IJ 5,417 48.1 36.7 3.2 3.1 23.4 19.4 6.7 8.5

钢铁

鞍钢股份-H 347 HK 3,712 11.4 12.3 0.5 0.5 6.0 6.2 4.1 3.7

马鞍山钢铁-H 323 HK 2,912 10.3 13.9 0.7 0.7 6.5 7.3 6.9 5.0

宝钢股份 600019 CH 19,293 10.5 9.5 0.8 0.7 5.6 5.2 7.2 7.6

河钢股份 000709 CH 3,910 12.9 12.4 0.5 0.5 8.6 8.3 4.2 4.0

中钢 2002 TT 11,782 25.7 23.3 1.1 1.1 11.4 10.1 4.5 4.8

Steel Dynamic STLD US 6,799 9.9 10.7 1.6 1.5 6.0 6.3 16.2 13.6

ThyssenKrupp TKA GR 9,015 156.1 17.5 3.6 3.2 6.4 4.9 2.3 18.1

Nippon Steel 5401 JT 13,577 5.9 14.5 0.4 0.4 6.1 6.7 7.3 3.0

Arcelor Mittal MT US 16,632 11.7 6.6 0.4 0.4 4.8 4.1 3.3 5.7

浦项制铁 PKX US 17,284 3.1 3.6 na na 4.3 4.5 6.2 7.2

US Steel X US 2,213 15.3 25.9 0.5 0.6 3.9 3.9 12.6 23.9

塔塔钢铁 TATA IN 6,059 4.5 7.3 0.6 0.6 4.9 5.9 13.5 7.9

金属

中国铝业-H 2600 HK 5,828 23.2 11.7 0.7 0.6 13.9 11.6 2.9 5.4

中国宏桥 1378 HK 5,748 6.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 na na 9.9 11.4

江西铜业-H 358 HK 4,202 10.3 7.7 0.6 0.5 6.6 5.5 5.6 7.1

紫金矿业-H 2899 HK 8,414 13.5 10.1 1.4 1.3 8.2 6.8 10.4 13.1

五矿资源 1208 HK 2,120 (54.5) 13.4 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 (3.2) 10.5

招金矿业-H 1818 HK 3,793 36.7 26.4 1.8 1.7 na na 5.0 6.5

力拓 RIO AU 103,294 9.8 11.1 2.4 2.3 5.1 5.6 24.8 20.8

必和必拓 BHPBF US 112,010 11.7 10.2 2.3 2.3 5.3 5.0 20.0 22.6

嘉能可 GLNCY US 42,438 15.1 11.3 1.0 1.0 6.1 5.5 6.6 8.6

淡水河谷 VALE US 63,044 7.9 7.2 1.3 1.1 4.1 4.2 15.9 15.6

自由港 FCX US 15,104 72.3 16.6 1.5 1.5 10.5 7.5 2.1 9.1

中金黄金 600489 CH 4,503 110.1 84.1 2.3 2.3 14.3 13.3 2.1 2.7

山东黄金 600547 CH 16,096 61.0 47.0 4.7 4.3 22.0 18.1 7.7 9.2

Teck Resources TECK US 10,450 5.3 5.7 0.4 0.4 2.9 3.1 8.3 7.2

Newmont Mining NEM US 32,468 29.2 18.6 1.5 1.5 9.0 6.5 5.0 7.9

美铝 AA US 4,088 (86.4) 14.4 0.9 0.9 3.9 3.6 (1.0) 6.2

United RUSAL 486 HK 6,560 5.0 4.1 1.0 0.8 na na 19.5 20.0

Norisk Nickle MNOD LI 38,992 10.7 10.4 8.6 7.5 na na 59.8 77.8

造纸

玖龙纸业 2689 HK 4,142 7.6 15.3 0.8 0.8 4.2 6.1 10.2 4.9

理文造纸 2314 HK 2,531 8.2 13.5 0.8 0.8 4.7 6.3 9.9 5.8

山鹰纸业 600567 CH 2,057 6.2 5.8 1.0 0.8 7.7 7.0 15.5 14.4

太阳纸业 002078 CH 2,998 10.0 8.7 1.5 1.3 7.2 6.4 14.8 14.7

UPM UPM FH 15,694 13.2 13.7 1.4 1.4 7.7 7.9 10.7 9.9

Weyerhauser WY US 20,731 52.9 33.1 2.5 2.7 19.3 15.8 4.7 8.0

International Paper IP US 16,409 9.2 10.2 2.2 2.1 7.0 7.3 23.8 20.4

Stora Enso STERV FH 9,918 12.1 11.5 1.3 1.2 6.7 6.6 10.7 10.6

Source: Bloomberg, Huatai HK Research estimates

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表现

市值 表现(%) 一年

股票 代码 百万美元 一日 一周 一月 三月 一年 年初至今 相对表现

煤炭

中国神华-H 1088 HK 41,667 (2.7) (3.5) 4.1 (3.2) (2.1) (4.4) (0.9)

中煤能源-H 1898 HK 5,572 0.0 (0.3) 18.3 4.1 3.1 6.8 4.4

伊泰煤业-H 3948 HK 2,232 3.1 0.2 (5.8) (2.7) (15.2) (3.8) (13.9)

兖州煤业-H 1171 HK 5,402 (0.7) 1.3 37.8 24.2 1.9 36.2 3.1

首钢福山-H 639 HK 1,158 (4.5) (3.9) 4.9 7.5 8.2 7.5 9.4

Consol Energy CNX US 1,611 (3.3) (0.3) 17.8 17.0 (41.0) (24.8) (44.5)

Coal India Coal IN 16,717 (2.2) (1.8) (4.3) (25.8) (29.3) (19.8) (32.8)

水泥

海螺水泥-H 914 HK 31,477 (1.2) (2.1) 5.6 (1.0) 2.6 22.4 3.9

中国建材 3323 HK 7,725 (1.1) (1.8) 12.4 8.3 6.7 33.8 7.9

华润水泥 1313 HK 7,270 (1.0) 1.9 19.0 15.4 (11.8) 15.6 (10.6)

金隅股份-H 2009 HK 3,205 0.0 (0.4) 11.9 (1.7) (11.0) (4.9) (9.8)

冀东水泥 000401 CH 3,159 0.4 (3.5) 5.4 (2.8) 58.6 34.2 48.0

华新水泥 600801 CH 5,886 0.9 (0.9) 7.2 5.7 48.9 66.6 38.3

CRH CRH LN 27,057 0.1 (1.2) 3.5 7.1 11.1 31.9 7.6

Cemex CEMEXCPOMM 6,063 2.9 1.8 34.9 (1.3) (42.3) (17.4) (45.8)

Ultra Tech UTCEM IN 15,113 0.5 0.4 (6.9) (13.1) (3.5) (1.8) (7.0)

拉法基豪瑞 LHN VX 30,694 1.5 1.6 7.9 1.5 15.6 27.2 12.1

Indocement INTP IJ 5,417 (0.7) 1.6 (6.2) 3.8 26.2 12.2 22.7

钢铁

鞍钢股份-H 347 HK 3,712 1.3 (4.9) 15.3 (6.6) (44.1) (25.6) (42.9)

马鞍山钢铁-H 323 HK 2,912 (0.3) (1.0) 0.7 (2.0) (23.1) (14.2) (21.9)

宝钢股份 600019 CH 19,293 (1.1) 0.5 5.1 (4.4) (19.1) (5.5) (29.7)

河钢股份 000709 CH 3,910 0.0 (1.5) 2.0 (12.4) (16.3) (8.1) (26.9)

中钢 2002 TT 11,782 0.0 (0.6) 0.4 (5.7) (7.2) (4.3) (17.8)

Steel Dynamic STLD US 6,799 (2.6) 0.6 13.4 8.3 (34.0) 3.1 (37.5)

ThyssenKrupp TKA GR 9,015 1.8 3.2 37.5 6.7 (33.4) (12.4) (36.9)

Nippon Steel 5401 JT 13,577 (2.2) 0.2 6.2 (14.7) (31.9) (18.3) (35.4)

Arcelor Mittal MT US 16,632 (3.1) (2.5) 24.2 (4.7) (46.5) (21.2) (50.0)

浦项制铁 PKX US 17,284 (0.3) 5.2 16.9 (4.1) (25.9) (9.8) (29.4)

US Steel X US 2,213 (2.5) 4.3 14.9 (11.1) (56.4) (28.9) (59.9)

塔塔钢铁 TATA IN 6,059 3.9 (2.4) (1.3) (24.1) (41.5) (31.2) (45.0)

金属

中国铝业-H 2600 HK 5,828 0.0 (1.5) 20.7 (2.2) (17.0) 6.3 (15.8)

中国宏桥 1378 HK 5,748 0.8 (3.0) 4.2 4.6 (1.5) 18.0 (0.3)

江西铜业-H 358 HK 4,202 0.7 0.8 7.7 (3.7) 8.3 3.1 9.5

紫金矿业-H 2899 HK 8,414 (0.7) 1.4 (7.1) (2.4) 7.5 (3.7) 8.7

五矿资源 1208 HK 2,120 2.5 7.3 15.7 (19.2) (41.6) (38.9) (40.4)

招金矿业-H 1818 HK 3,793 (0.3) (1.2) (13.7) 14.7 55.5 16.0 56.7

力拓 RIO AU 103,294 0.3 0.9 9.7 (9.5) 33.1 24.1 29.6

必和必拓 BHPBF US 112,010 0.0 2.5 1.1 (8.9) 16.2 14.8 12.7

嘉能可 GLNCY US 42,438 (0.3) 3.0 19.7 (6.6) (17.6) (8.1) (21.1)

淡水河谷 VALE US 63,044 0.5 1.7 9.7 (11.4) (13.6) (9.6) (17.1)

自由港 FCX US 15,104 (0.6) 2.9 14.4 (6.5) (25.7) 1.0 (29.2)

中金黄金 600489 CH 4,503 (0.8) (2.4) (8.3) 3.7 39.3 7.8 35.8

山东黄金 600547 CH 16,096 (1.4) (1.8) 0.6 43.1 128.8 70.4 125.3

Teck Resources TECK US 10,450 (0.1) 2.0 13.2 (17.7) (22.8) (13.0) (26.3)

Newmont Mining NEM US 32,468 2.9 3.8 2.6 10.0 31.6 17.1 28.1

美铝 AA US 4,088 (2.3) 5.8 25.7 (2.3) (48.9) (17.1) (52.4)

United RUSAL 486 HK 6,560 0.0 1.8 10.8 10.8 64.9 30.5 61.4

Norisk Nickle MNOD LI 38,992 0.9 0.8 11.3 7.5 44.4 31.3 40.9

造纸

玖龙纸业 2689 HK 4,142 (1.0) 0.3 22.3 12.2 (19.0) (4.7) (17.8)

理文造纸 2314 HK 2,531 0.2 (3.2) 10.0 (12.2) (40.1) (31.8) (38.9)

山鹰纸业 600567 CH 2,057 0.0 (1.2) 3.9 (5.4) (13.4) 1.9 (23.9)

太阳纸业 002078 CH 2,998 (0.1) (0.4) 18.7 34.9 17.1 43.9 6.6

UPM UPM FH 15,694 0.4 1.5 14.9 13.7 (18.9) 20.2 (22.4)

Weyerhauser WY US 20,731 0.9 1.8 10.6 7.1 (18.1) 27.3 (21.5)

International Paper IP US 16,409 (1.7) 1.3 7.1 (2.1) (22.2) 3.5 (25.7)

Stora Enso STERV FH 9,918 0.4 1.4 18.2 18.5 (26.4) 12.9 (29.9)

Source: Bloomberg

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报告

行业报告

September 19th, 2019: China Basic Materials — Entering the peak season, while property policy headwinds persist

September 16th, 2019: China Construction Materials — Takeaways from central China tier-3&4 city visits: cement

September 13th, 2019: China Coal Mining — Fundamentals improve on tighter supply and steady demand

September 9th, 2019: China Metals & Minings — De-stocking underway, awaiting demand recovery to spark fire

September 2nd, 2019: China Construction Materials — A close look at the world’s largest sand and aggregate project

August 26th, 2019: China Metals & Minings — Fundamentals improving on plant shutdown, coming peak season

August 15th, 2019: China Construction Materials — Can cement industry ‘coopetition’ ensure long-term stability?

August 9th, 2019: China Construction Materials — Basic Materials expert conference call series: cement industry

August 7th, 2019: China Environment Services — Expert conference call: hazardous waste

August 6th, 2019: China Basic Materials — Basic Materials expert conference call series: fiscal policy

August 6th, 2019: China Construction Materials — Basic Materials expert conference call series: aggregate industry

August 5th, 2019: China Steel — Basic Materials expert conference call series: steel industry

August 5th, 2019: China Metals & Minings — Basic Materials expert conference call series: aluminum industry

August 2nd, 2019: China Basic Materials — Basic Materials expert conference call series: glass industry

August 2nd, 2019: China Basic Materials — Basic Materials expert conference call series: pipe pile industry

August 1st, 2019: China Metals & Minings — Basic Materials expert conference call series: copper industry

August 1st, 2019: China Coal Mining — Basic Materials expert conference call series: coal industry

July 31st, 2019: China Coal Mining — Lifting the lid on spot coal price forecasting

July 30th, 2019: China Forest & Paper Products — Basic Materials expert conference call series: paper industry

July 18th, 2019: China Forest & Paper Products — Price cuts reveal a prolonged cold winter; reiterate UNDERWEIGHT

July 18th, 2019: China Basic Materials — Healthy demand, but stronger production; UNDERWEIGHT

July 10th, 2019: China Coal Mining — Coal price facing near-term stress; to regain momentum in 4Q

公司报告

September 8th, 2019: NDP (2689 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Down cycle far from over; recent price hike a marginal rebound

September 3rd, 2019: Yanzhou Coal (1171 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Structural improvement towards clean coal lifting Yancoal profits

September 2nd, 2019: Angang Steel (347 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Well anticipated profit decline on surging cost and soft price; HOLD

September 1st, 2019: Yanzhou Coal Mining (1171 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Surprising special dividend; strong earnings beat; BUY

September 1st, 2019: Jiangxi Copper (358 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Earnings stability persists, price remains subdued, HOLD

August 30th, 2019: Dynagreen Environmental (1330 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — 1H19 results in line; high gearing remains an overhang

August 30th, 2019: Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK): BUY (Maintained) — 1H19 profit drops on margin contraction; BUY

August 30th, 2019: Maanshan Iron & Steel (323 HK): SELL (Maintained) — Well-anticipated drop in bottom line, market focus is on M&As

August 29th, 2019: BEW (371 HK): BUY (Maintained) — 1H19 a slight miss; but asset-light transformation seems promising

August 28th, 2019: BBMG Corporation (2009 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Results a slight beat; maintain BUY on defensive nature

August 27th, 2019: China Conch Venture (586 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Growth still strong for the two business segments

August 26th, 2019: China Shenhua Energy (1088 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Core earnings in line, profit stability to sustain, BUY

August 26th, 2019: China National Building Materials (3323 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — 1H19 missed, mainly on higher provision loss

August 25th, 2019: China Coal Energy (1898 HK): BUY (Maintained) — 1H19 blew past consensus on volume expansion, BUY

August 23rd, 2019: Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Growth remained steady in 1H19

August 23rd, 2019: Shougang Fushan (639 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Strong earnings accompanied by generous payout; maintain BUY

August 22nd, 2019: Conch Cement (914 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Results in line, but 2020E outlook pressed

August 22nd, 2019: MMG Limited (1208 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Loss-making 1H19 as expected; maintain BUY on 2H19 turnaround

August 15th, 2019: China Everbright International (257 HK): BUY (Maintained) — On track to become a world-leading environment player

August 14th, 2019: Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing (2314 HK): SELL (Maintained) — Industry fundamentals have yet to hit bottom

August 11th, 2019: CR Cement (1313 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Results largely in line; HOLD on sustained supply pressure

August 8th, 2019: Xinyi Glass (868 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Result in line; maintain HOLD, on sluggish glass market outlook

July 23rd, 2019: MMG Limited (1208 HK): BUY (Initiation) — Key beneficiary of multi-year copper price recovery

July 15th, 2019: Angang Steel (347 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Profit warning well expected; eyes on Tangshan and Wu’an

July 15th, 2019: CEI (257 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Fine-tune earnings estimates; higher visibility for future growth

July 15th, 2019: CNBM (3323 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Solid growth in 1H19 on low base & strong cement, but risks ahead

July 11th, 2019: CR Cement (1313 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Weak 1H19E on excessive rain; new supply to be major overhang

July 10th, 2019: Conch Cement (914 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Solid 1H19E largely in line, but 2H19-2020 is still challenging

July 2nd, 2019: BBMG Corporation (2009 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Takeaways from Huatai Basic Materials & Utilities Corp. Day

July 2nd, 2019: Dynagreen Environmental (1330 HK): HOLD (Maintained) — Takeaways from Huatai Basic Materials & Utilities Corp. Day

July 2nd, 2019: Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): BUY (Maintained) — Takeaways from Huatai Basic Materials & Utilities Corp. Day

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