2
Konstanz Freiburg Augsburg Munich Ingolstadt Regensburg Nuremberg Erlangen Fürth Bamberg Würzburg Darmstadt Offenbach/M. Aschaffenburg Frankfurt/M. Mainz Wiesbaden Koblenz Bonn Cologne Erfurt Jena Weimar Magdeburg Braunschweig Kassel Gera Chemnitz Dresden Cottbus Potsdam Bielefeld Gütersloh Paderborn Bremen Hamburg Lübeck Kiel Rostock Schwerin Osnabrück Münster Dortmund Hamm Hagen Bochum Wuppertal Solingen Siegen Marburg Duisburg Essen Krefeld Aachen Mönchen- gladbach Dusseldorf Neuss Leverkusen Ratingen Berlin Leipzig Halle/Saale Trier Heilbronn Stuttgart Karlsruhe Saarbrücken Kaiserslautern Heidelberg Mannheim Ludwigshafen Ulm Wilhelmshaven Salzgitter Hanover Schweinfurt Dusseldorf Ratingen Neuss Krefeld Prime rents and prime gross yields: Prime rent in /sq m Prime gross yield in % 14.99 5.4 6-month trend: rising stable falling Investment locations Germany 2020 Office – rents and yields As of 1st quarter 2020 Contact: [email protected] Source: Catella Research 2020 The German office property markets have not yet been affected by the effects of the pandemic in terms of value. Three factors are decisive in this respect: the good economic development that continued until mid-February, the relatively low supply of new construction in the metropolitan regions or CBDs and the delaying effects of a recession on the floor-space markets. At present, we therefore do not see any significant change in our rental and yield forecast up to September, although economic development will leave its mark at the beginning of the third quarter. 2020 Ø prime rent ∆ 2019/2020 Ø prime gross yield ∆ 2019/2020 A-location 33.29 /m 2 7.25% 2.88% -18Bp B-location 16.02 /m 2 3.09% 4.66% -40Bp C-location 14.10 /m 2 5.62% 5.58% -31Bp D-location 11.35 /m 2 8.30% 6.20% -50Bp * bp = basis point Prime rent: Definition according to gif e. V.: The top rent represents the median of the uppermost price segment, with a market share of 3 % of the total letting take-up (excluding owner-occupiers), during the last 12 months. Prime gross yield: The prime gross initial yield is the simple comparison of the contractual rent with the acquisition price excluding purchaser‘s costs. The prime gross initial yield corresponds to the multiplier normally used in the market. 39.50 2.6 28.50 3.0 45.00 2.8 29.00 2.9 26.00 3.1 40.50 2.6 24.50 3.0 16.00 4.8 11.50 6.0 15.00 4.9 11.50 5.2 12.50 6.0 14.50 5.1 23.50 4.3 16.00 5.9 14.50 4.5 10.50 7.0 10.50 6.5 14.00 4.8 15.50 5.0 15.00 4.9 14.50 5.4 11.50 5.0 14.50 5.8 15.50 4.2 16.50 4.8 12.00 6.0 7.50 7.0 9.00 6.5 10.50 6.8 10.00 6.5 9.00 6.2 17.00 4.5 16.50 4.9 13.50 5.4 14.50 5.2 12.50 6.2 10.50 6.6 14.50 5.2 12.00 5.8 16.00 5.5 12.50 6.0 15.50 6.0 12.50 6.5 15.50 4.5 12.50 4.8 12.50 6.0 12.50 6.3 12.50 6.7 15.50 4.8 16.80 5.0 11.50 7.0 15.50 4.5 14.50 5.3 13.50 3.7 16.50 3.9 14.50 6.0 13.00 6.0 10.00 6.7 15.50 5.7 15.00 5.5 13.50 5.0 12.50 6.4 11.50 6.4 8.00 6.2 9.00 6.4 9.00 6.4 11.50 7.2 9.50 7.5 12.00 6.2 15.80 5.0 8.50 7.1 15.50 4.2 9.50 7.5 13.00 6.1 12.50 6.1

Investment locations Germany 2020 Office – rents and yields · Yield/risk profile for office markets in 2020} Office markets have been classified according to their size (existing

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Page 1: Investment locations Germany 2020 Office – rents and yields · Yield/risk profile for office markets in 2020} Office markets have been classified according to their size (existing

Konstanz

Freiburg

Augsburg

Munich

Ingolstadt

Regensburg

Nuremberg

ErlangenFürth

Bamberg

Würzburg

Darmstadt

Offenbach/M.Aschaffenburg

Frankfurt/M.

Mainz

Wiesbaden

Koblenz

Bonn

Cologne ErfurtJena

Weimar

Magdeburg

Braunschweig

Kassel

Gera Chemnitz

Dresden

Cottbus

Potsdam

Bielefeld

GüterslohPaderborn

Bremen

Hamburg

Lübeck

Kiel

Rostock

Schwerin

Osnabrück

Münster

DortmundHamm

Hagen

Bochum

WuppertalSolingen

SiegenMarburg

DuisburgEssen

Krefeld

Aachen

Mönchen-gladbach

DusseldorfNeuss Leverkusen

Ratingen

Berlin

Leipzig

Halle/Saale

Trier

Heilbronn

Stuttgart

Karlsruhe

Saarbrücken

KaiserslauternHeidelberg

Mannheim

Ludwigshafen

Ulm

Wilhelmshaven

Salzgitter

Hanover

Schweinfurt

Dusseldorf

Ratingen

Neuss

Krefeld

Prime rents and prime gross yields:

Prime rent in €/sq m Prime gross yield in %

14.995.4

6-month trend: rising stable falling

Investment locations Germany 2020 Office – rents and yields

As of 1st quarter 2020Contact: [email protected]: Catella Research 2020

The German office property markets have not yet been affected by the effects of the pandemic in terms of value. Three factors are decisive in this respect: the good economic development that continued until mid-February, the relatively low supply of new construction in the metropolitan regions or CBDs and the delaying effects of a recession on the floor-space markets. At present, we therefore do not see any significant change in our rental and yield forecast up to September, although economic development will leave its mark at the beginning of the third quarter.

2020 Ø prime rent ∆ 2019/2020 Ø prime gross yield ∆ 2019/2020

A-location 33.29€/m2 7.25% 2.88% -18BpB-location 16.02€/m2 3.09% 4.66% -40BpC-location 14.10€/m2 5.62% 5.58% -31BpD-location 11.35€/m2 8.30% 6.20% -50Bp* bp = basis point

Prime rent:Definition according to gif e. V.: The top rent represents the median of the uppermost price segment, with a market share of 3 % of the total letting take-up (excluding owner-occupiers), during the last 12 months.

Prime gross yield:The prime gross initial yield is the simple comparison of the contractual rent with the acquisition price excluding purchaser‘s costs. The prime gross initial yield corresponds to the multiplier normally used in the market.

39.502.6

28.503.0

45.002.8

29.002.9

26.003.1

40.502.6

24.503.0

16.004.8

11.506.0

15.004.9

11.505.2

12.506.0

14.505.1

23.504.3

16.005.9

14.504.5

10.507.0

10.506.5

14.004.8

15.505.0

15.004.9

14.505.4

11.505.0

14.505.8

15.504.2

16.504.8

12.006.0

7.507.0

9.006.5

10.506.8

10.006.5

9.006.2

17.004.5

16.504.9

13.505.4 14.50

5.2

12.506.2

10.506.6

14.505.2

12.005.8

16.005.5

12.506.0

15.506.0

12.506.5

15.504.5

12.504.8

12.506.0

12.506.3

12.506.7

15.504.8

16.805.0

11.507.0

15.504.5

14.505.3

13.503.7

16.503.9

14.506.0

13.006.0

10.006.7

15.505.7

15.005.5

13.505.0

12.506.4

11.506.4

8.006.2

9.006.4

9.006.4

11.507.2

9.507.5

12.006.2

15.805.0

8.507.1

15.504.2

9.507.5

13.006.1

12.506.1

Page 2: Investment locations Germany 2020 Office – rents and yields · Yield/risk profile for office markets in 2020} Office markets have been classified according to their size (existing

Yield/risk profile for office markets in 2020

}

Office markets have been classified according to their size (existing stock).

Category A = > 5 million sq m B = � 2 million to 5 million sq m C = D = < 2 million sq m (further differentiation for

C & D in terms of regional significance)

Methodology: Catella Research 2020 risk model is based on the volatility of office yields and the ratio of the respective office space stock to the total stock, including the vacancy rates of all locations. Schematic representation based on a fully let property in the category core or new construction in a prime location.

As of 1st quarter 2020Source: Catella Research 2020

Prime gross yield in % Prime gross yield in %

Risk factor

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Section overview: B-, C-, D-locations

Risk factor

8.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

7.0%

50 60 70 80 90

Berlin

Munich

Hamburg

Frankfurt (Main)

Stuttgart Cologne

Dusseldorf

Weimar –

Wilhelmshaven – Solingen –

– Nuremberg

Hanover – Bremen –

Dortmund –

|MünsterBonn–

Essen –

Kiel –

– Kassel

| Leipzig

– Heidelberg

Dresden

Regensburg

Bamberg

Ulm –

– Potsdam

Hamm

| Aschaffenburg

– Offenbach

– Halle

– Erfurt

– Cottbus

– Fürth

– Trier

– Hagen

– Schweinfurt

– Magdeburg

– Würzburg

Marburg –

Kaiserslautern

Paderborn –

– Siegen

Chemnitz –

Leverkusen –

– Neuss

| Erlangen

Bielefeld – – Osnabrück

Rostock

Gütersloh

Saarbrücken –

Braunschweig –

– Schwerin

Bochum –

– Heilbronn – Ratingen

Darmstadt

– Augsburg

Karlsruhe –

Duisburg – – Mönchengladbach

– Ingolstadt

Mainz

– Aachen

Freiburg

Ludwigshafen

Wuppertal –

Koblenz

Lübeck –

Jena

Krefeld –

Gera –

Salzgitter –

– Wiesbaden

Mannheim