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Panel Discussion Open Innovation & Singularity:The Future of Industries & Business Models
Solomon Darwin (Berkeley Haas) and Jim Spohrer (IBM)Santa Clara Convention Center, CA USA, Thursday November 19th, 2015
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-darwin-woi-2015119-v2
© IBM 2015, © Solomon N. Darwin – 2015: All Rights Reserved
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Predictions: Courses & Cognitive• 2015
– Course: “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months for 40% question answering (Q&A) accuracy for corpus/textbook– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, mostly which user questions to reject
• 2025– Course: “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
• 2035– Course: “How to use your cognitive assistant to build a unicorn startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Most people have at least one cognitive assistant working for them– A cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
• 2055– Course: “How to manage your workforce of cognitive assistants.”– Most people have 100 cognitive assistants working for them.
© IBM 2015, © Solomon N. Darwin – 2015: All Rights Reserved
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2035 – pluriforms?
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Body suits (“pluriforms” vs uniforms) with style, strength, and safety – like cars.Also, pluriforms have built in phones.
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“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
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What does the future hold?
© IBM 2015, © Solomon N. Darwin – 2015: All Rights Reserved
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Co-evolution of business models and technology
• Value propositions & technology propositions– Save Time? Weakest Link– Reduce Costs? Exponentials– More Value in Context? User Models/Building Blocks– Breakthrough Pricing? Energy– More Adaptive? Data Superabundance
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Weakest Link – Access to Experts
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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
The past and the future of communication
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Exponential Change
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User Models/Better Building Blocks
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2035
2055
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Energy
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“Information has gone from scarce to superabundant” – The Economist
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CSIG Model: Cognitive Systems Institute Group
• CSIG Model for IBM-University interactions:
• (1) Faculty and students describe their work on weekly ISSIP COI CSIG calls - http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/
• (2) IBMers and faculty/students identify and work on submitting grant proposals to federal and foundation sources - for example, in USA: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2015/nsf15610/nsf15610.htm
• (3) Review of any possible IBM awards to support aligned submissions - http://cognitive-science.info/award-recipients/
• (4) Research outcomes/publications and IBM hires students
• (5) possible exchange - IBMers on Campus at university, Faculty/Students at IBM
• (6) CSIG: building cognitive systems is still very hard, and CSIG is exploring how to improve methods to develop cognitive assistants for all occupations
© IBM 2015, © Solomon N. Darwin – 2015: All Rights Reserved
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CSIG Algorithm:Cognitive Systems Institute Group
• 1000 occupations are described at the O*NET website: http://www.onetonline.org/
For all occupations in O*NETFor list of tasks in an occupation: Measure: (1) expert/novice performance on related task(2) cognitive system performance on that related task
• Plot the data and update it see the progress.
– An example of (1) above is this article (thanks Franz Dill!): the game Airport Scanner - turning tasks into games to measure expert novice performance levelshttp://eponymouspickle.blogspot.com/2015/01/turning-boring-task-into-game.html
– An example of (2) above is this article (thanks Jean Paul Jacob!)Computer-based personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/01/07/1418680112
© IBM 2015, © Solomon N. Darwin – 2015: All Rights Reserved
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Smart Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
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Identify Weakest Links
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Energy, Water, Food, Wellness, Cognitive Mediators, Trust
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By 2035, T-Shaped Makers will with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
© IBM 2015, © Solomon N. Darwin – 2015: All Rights Reserved
Empathy & Teamwork
sectorregion/culture
discipline Dept
h
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts
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Learning to program:My first program
Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
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In Summary
“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive SystemsEntities
Service SystemsEntities With
CognitiveMediators
Add Rights &Responsibilities
Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create smarter service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy
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