Dennis Meißner1, Benedikt Sommer2, Silke Rademacher1, Oliver Bucholz2

1 Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz 2 Hydrotec Ingenieurgesellschaft für Wasser und Umwelt mbH, Aachen

Delft-FEWS User Days Delft, 29 & 30 October 2014

FEWS as a main component of BfG's

forecasting services for the German Waterways

The German waterway network

German waterways are an integral part of the „wet“ Trans-European Transport

Network (TEN-T) connecting North Sea, the Baltic and the Black Sea

(German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital

Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd)

Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km)

Seaways (~17,800 km²)

The German waterway network

(German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital

Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd)

approximately 240 million tons / year are

transported along the German waterways

70 % of the German waterways are of

international relevance

The River Rhine is one of the most frequented

inland waterways in the world.

There‘s a need to use the free capacity of

inland waterways more consequently in

reaction to the continuing transport growth

economically and ecological sustainably.

Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km)

Seaways (~17,800 km²)

The German waterway network

free-flowing rivers (~ 30 %)

impounded rivers (~ 45 %)

canals (~ 25 %)

Different characteristics cause vulnera-

bility to different hydrological impacts

(German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital

Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd)

(www.wsv.de) (www.wsv.de)

(www.wsv.de)

Hydrological impacts on inland waterways

Navigation on inland waterways is limited

due to:

• floods (relevant for all rivers)

• low flows (mainly free flowing rivers)

• river ice (mainly canals, impounded rivers)

Hydrological impacts on inland waterways

Restriction of inland waterway transport (IWT) due to …

… river ice … high / low water-levels

river ice: occurrence in Central Europe over a limited period of the year

floods: could cause relevant costs for IWT, but are rare

low flows: occur frequently and are relatively long lasting

Low flows could be regarded as main threat of the reliability of European IWT

Forecasting at BfG

Development & maintenance of operational forecasting systems

for the German waterways (“WAVOS”)

… related to water-levels, discharges, ice formation on rivers and canals

… for the Waterway and Shipping Administration (Rhine, Danube, Elbe)

… for the Federal States (Odra, Main, Saar, Elbe)

… continuing improvement of the system / the models / the modules

Operational water-level forecasting (“navigation related”) at Rhine, Danube

Operational forecasting of ice formation for the most important canals

Support of forecasting centers using BfG’s forecasting system WAVOS

Involvement in national and international research projects related to

hydrological forecasting (e.g. ECCONET, H-SAF, EUPORIAS etc.)

BfG‘s operational forecasting systems

Flood Forecasting

Centre Main (Bavaria) Flood and daily Forecast

Main

Flood Forecasting

Center Rhine

(WSV + Rheinl.-Pfalz) Flood Forecast Rhine

from station Worms

Federal Institute

of Hydrology Traffic-related Forecast

Rhine and Danube,

Management Kiel Canal*),

Ice formation on canals

*) under development

Water and Shipping

Authority

Hann. Münden Water management

barrage Eder

Flood Forecating

Centre (Saxony) Flood Forecast Elbe in

Saxony

Flood Forecasting

Centre Elbe

(Saxony-Anhalt) Flood Forecast Elbe

Flood Forecasting

Centre Frankfurt

(Odra) Flood and Traffic-related

Forecast Odra

Water and Shipping

Authority

Magdeburg Traffic-related Forecast

Elbe

Delft-FEWS as a main forecast component

2006 Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG

2008 Integration of Delft-FEWS in operational forecasting procedure

(Rhine)

2006 Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG

2008 Integration of Delft-FEWS in operational forecasting procedure

(Rhine)

2009 Update of HBV-model Rhine within Delft-FEWS, optimization / addition of

workflows

2010 Import and processing of radar-based precipitation products for the Rhine

2011 -

2012 Implementation of REW-model for River Moselle

2013 Import / processing of differnt ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, DWD

2014 Extension of Delft-FEWS with regard to its spatial domain and

forecast tasks; set-up and usage of shadow-system in Delft

Delft-FEWS as a main forecast component

Extension to all German river basins

Coverage of all basins realted the inland waterways

Domain of FEWS-BfG

2006 – 2013 (~ 170.000 km²)

Current Domain of

FEWS-BfG (~ 465.000 km²)

Danube

Odra

Elbe Weser

Eider

Ems

Rhine

Extension to all German river basins

Implementation of additional meteorological and

hydrological stations

Import of additional parameters dewpoint temperature

air pressure

sunduration

wind speed and direction

2014 2013

~ 1000 stations ~ 1800 stations

Producing reports with Delft-FEWS

Requirements of general content: Information about timeliness of meteorological forecasts

Combination of maps, graphs, tables, text

PDF-documents with the file name containing generation date

Workflow

Template

Data Set

Delft-FEWS Export

graphics

Export

time series

Export template

filled with info

HTML Export scripts,

legends etc.

Java Report PDF-Converter

PDF

Report

Generation of official forecast products

Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“

Replacement / enhancements of an existing BfG-instrument

to prepare meteorological forecast from DWD / ECMWF

for waterway authorities in the different basins

Generation of HTML- and PDF-exports by FEWS

complex time-/content related reporting scheme

export of up to 56 reports at one time

creation of 381 maps of forecast data

conditional lebelling

generation of multi page pdfs

Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“

Extended support for Flood Forecasting Center Rhine

Synopsis of various deterministic flow forecasts and the

COSMO-LEPS ensemble

Reports as HTML- and PDF-documents

Report „Rhine tributaries“

Probabilistic water-level forecasts Rhine

Probability that water-levels will exceed or fall below of

threshold values relevant for navigation 1. Ensemble simulation of water levels along the River Rhine

2. Statistical analysis (matter of current R & D activities at BfG)

3. Calculation of exceedance probabilities for every time step

4. Identification of maximum value per day

Report „Probabilistic water-level forecasts“

Additional modules to forecast ice formation ( canals)

replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system

recipient: all waterway users

New module to forecast ice formation

Additional modules to forecast ice formation (for canals)

replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system

recipient: all waterway users

Linked to Delft-FEWS by general adapter JAVA code by Hydrotec

Input Water temperature (measured, manuel input)

Air temperature (measured and forecast over 10 d)

Ice thickness (measured, manuel input)

Output Water temperature over 10 d

Ice thickness over 10 d

Export PDF for 3 different canals,

subdivided into 12 sections

Time series (input/output) in

csv-format

New module to forecast ice formation

PDF-export early ice warning Mosel/Saar

Additional modules to estimate potential ice formation (for impounded rivers)

new element of BfG‘s ice forecasting system

recipient: Waterway ans Shipping Administration

Calculation risk of icing by comparison of

output (water temperature) with threshould values

Linked to Delft-FEWS by general adapter JAVA code by Hydrotec

Input

Water temperature (measured)

Air temperature (15 day moving average of measurements

and forecasts over 10 days)

Output

Water temperature for next 10 days

Risk of icing for next 10 days

Export

PDF early ice warning Mosel/Saar

Time series (input/ output) csv-format

Prototype module for early ice warning on

impounded rivers

FEWS in the context of R&D activities

Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS

(ensemble calibration, probabilistic postprocessing, error correction)

Hindcast

dataset(s)

Hindcast

dataset(s)

„operational staff“

„research & development staff“

Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS

(example multivariate BMA)

End of

COSMO-LEPS

End of

MER, GME

FEWS in the context of R&D activities

(Hemri, S., Fundel, F. & M. Zappa (2013): Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times. Water Resources Research 49, 6744–6755)

Conclusions and next steps

From the beginning on FEWS (for the Rhine) has been an

important tool within BfG‘s forecast environment for the German waterways.

In 2014 FEWS-BfG was substantially extended in order to operate additional

tasks of the forecast service for the waterways (reduce redundant data, maximize

synergetic effects, e.g. in case of changes in meteo inputs).

Although the automatization of forecast tasks proceeds, BfG still strictly

seperates the generation of forecasts and the dissemination of (verified) forecast

products.

FEWS is used more consequent in research & development activities (provision

of quasi-operational data, validation of methods in the operational environment)

to improve the transfer of models / tools in operational forecasting.

Scheduled extensions of BfG‘s operational forecasting services (with probable

FEWS involvement): forecast to support water management of several

waterways / canals, monthly and seasonal hydrological forecasts for rivers.

Thank you for your attention !

Dennis Meißner Department Water Balance, Forecasting and Predictions Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde / Federal Institute of Hydrology Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz, Germany Tel.: +49 261/1306-5183 E-Mail: meissner@bafg.de www.bafg.de/vorhersage