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FLARECASTDasautomatischeVorhersagesystemfürSonnenflares
TransferTransparent,HochschulefürTechnikFHNWAndréCsillaghy,HannaSathiapal,MarcoSoldati,DarioVischi,SamuelvonStachelski,AleksandarTorbica unddasFLARECAST-Team4.April2017
Eine Sonnenexplosion spuckt eine riesige Teilchenwolke aus
FLARECASTINHORIZON2020
Academy of Athens, Greece: Coordination, flare predictors, explorative
researchFachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland:
Communication, infrastructure, validationNorthumbria University, United Kingdon:
Flare predictors, validationTrinity College Dublin, Ireland:
Flare predictors, validation, explorative researchUniversité Paris-Sud & CNRS, France:
Infrastructure, explorative researchUniversita Degli Studi Di Genova & CNR, Italy:
Algorithms, infrastructureMet Office, United Kingdom:
Validation, communication
RelevanteThemenfür dieFHNW
• Usercommunication– >ArbeitspaketinKommunication
• Infrastructure,machine learning– > ArbeitspaketinInfrastructure
• TeilnahmeanweitereArbeitspakete:– >AlgorithmenundWissenschaft
ArbeitspaketKommunikation
http://flarecast.eu/test-video
[email protected]/public-outreach
@flarecast_eu
Internationalewissenschaftliche
Kultur
✔
Greece
Ireland
Italy
France
Switzer-land
UnitedKingdom
KommunikationeinesinternationalenProjektes
KommunikationeinesinternationalenProjektes
Internationalewissenschaftliche
Kultur
✔
🏛Greece
?Ireland
🖼Italy
🤴France
🔧Switzer-land
🏆UnitedKingdom
KommunikationeinesinternationalenProjektes
Internationalewissenschaftliche
Kultur
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!Greece
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"Italy
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Ὁ ἣλιος οὐ μόνον ... νέος ἐφ ̓ ἡμέρῃ ἐστίν, ἁλλ ̓ ἀεὶ νέος συνεχῶς. TheSunisyoungeveryday,incessantlyandeternally
Heraclitus,~500bc
FLARECAST is a European research project aiming to develop an automated solar-flare forecasting system with unmatched accuracy compared to existing facilities.
“Ὁ ἣλιος οὐ μόνον… νέος ἐφ᾽ ἡμέρῃ ἐστίν, ἀλλ᾽ ἀεὶ νέος συνεχῶς.”
“The Sun is young every day, incessantly and eternally.”
— Heraclitus, ~ 500 BCE
Project Partners:• Academy of Athens, Greece• Trinity College Dublin, Ireland• Universita Degli Studi Di Genova, Italy• Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche, Italy• Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France• Université Paris-Sud, France• Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland• Met Office, United Kingdom
FLARECASTFlare Likelihood And Region Eruption foreCASTing
This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 640216.
DasThemaWeltraumwetteristaktuell
NationaleGefährdungsanalyse–DossierSonnensturm2015
KommunikationmitpotentiellenNutzenden
FullSunview Solarx-rayflux
Majorflarerisk% Gradedflareriskcolorcoded
StakeholdersWorkshop:Wasbrauchendie‘end-user’?
flarecast.eu/first-stakeholder-workshop
ZentrumfürWeltraumwetter,METOffice
KommunikationmitderÖffentlichkeit
flarecast.eu/public-outreach
Nachwuchsförderung
flarecast.eu/public-outreach
FLARECASTInfrastuctureThesimilaritiesbetweenaPizzaandtheSun
PIZZACASTPipeline
Prediction
DataAcquisition
Data-base
FeatureExtraction
Prediction
PredictifnewPizzacreationistasty
DataAcquisition
SolarDynamicsObservatoryPizzaDelivery
FeatureExtraction– PizzaSpinaci
Ingredient Color Shape StateTomato Red Round CookedMozzarella White Round MeltedSpinach Green Polygon Cooked
FeatureExtraction– OtherPizze
Ingredient Color Shape StateTomato Red Round CookedMozzarella White Round MeltedSpinach Green Polygon CookedMushroom White Polygon BurnedChewing Gum White Round Melted
FeatureExtraction
FeatureExtraction– FLARECAST
Magnetogram ActiveRegion
ØIntensity Position Time
100 (1840,2680)
1490779784
154 (1210,1920)
1490779812
Prediction– LearningPhase
«PizzaSpinaci»
Notebook
State=Cooked
Shape=PolygonColor=
Green
J
Prediction– Learned
Ingredient Color Shape State ObjectiveJ K L
Tomato Red Round Cooked 0.7 0.2 0.1Mozzarella White Round Melted 0.6 0.2 0.2Mushroom White Polygon Burned 0.4 0.5 0.1Spinach Green Polygon Cooked 0.1 0.6 0.3Chewing Gum White Round Melted 0.0 0.0 1.0
Prediction
Magnetogram
«PizzaMargherita»
NeuronalNetwork
Time=14907797
Ø Intensity=100Position
=(1840,2680) „Large“
SolarFlare
Notebook
State=Melted
Shape=RoundColor=
White
J
Docker Infrastructure
Prediction
DataAcquisition
Data-base
FeatureExtraction
Prediction
Verification
Classification:„Large“SolarFlare Classification:Pizza„Spinaci“
üü
Issue:Missclassification
«PizzaMargherita»
Notebook
State=Melted
Shape=RoundColor=
White
J
Ingredient Color Shape State ObjectiveJ K L
Mozzarella White Round Melted 0.6 0.2 0.2Chewing Gum White Round Melted 0.0 0.0 1.0
flarecast.eu/public-outreach
BestenDankfürIhreAufmerksamkeitMehrInformationenfindenSieaufflarecast.euTransferTransparent,HochschulefürTechnikFHNWAndréCsillaghy,HannaSathiapal,MarcoSoldati,DarioVischi,SamuelvonStachelski,AleksandarTorbica4.April2017
