Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve: Einleitung - … · DieneukeynesianischePhillipskurve: Einleitung GünterW.Beck Trier,18. Juni2010 Günter W. Beck Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve

Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve: Einleitung

Günter W. Beck

Trier, 18. Juni 2010

Günter W. Beck () Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve 17. Juni 2010 1 / 13

Simulationsergebnisse des eines Modells mit flexiblenPreisen

• Reaktion der Volkswirtschaft auf eine Veränderung derGeldmengenwachstumsrate

0 5 10 15 20 25−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2x 10

−4 Responses to a money growth shock

0 5 10 15 20 25−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

outputemployment

real int. ratenominal interest rateinflation

=⇒ Geldpolitische Maßnahmen haben nahezu keinerlei reale Effekte.




0 5 10 15 20 25−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2x 10


0 5 10 15 20 25−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

outputemployment






0 5 10 15 20 25−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2x 10


0 5 10 15 20 25−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

outputemployment






0 5 10 15 20 25−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2x 10


0 5 10 15 20 25−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

outputemployment


=⇒ Geldpolitische Maßnahmen haben nahezu keinerlei reale Effekte.Günter W. Beck () Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve 17. Juni 2010 2 / 13

Federal Reserve Act, Section 2a, Objectives of monetarypolicy

• Federal Reserve Act, Section 2a, Objectives of monetary policy:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System andthe Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain longrun growth of the monetary and credit aggregatescommensurate with the economy’s long run potential toincrease production, so as to promote effectively the goalsof maximum employment, stable prices, and moderatelong-term interest rates.


Federal Reserve Act, Section 2a, Objectives of monetarypolicy

• Federal Reserve Act, Section 2a, Objectives of monetary policy:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System andthe Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain longrun growth of the monetary and credit aggregatescommensurate with the economy’s long run potential toincrease production, so as to promote effectively the goalsof maximum employment, stable prices, and moderatelong-term interest rates.


Treaty of Maastricht, Article 105 (I)

• Treaty of Maastricht, Article 105 (I):

1. The primary objective of the ESCB shall be to maintainprice stability. Without prejudice to the objective of pricestabilty, the ESCB shall support the general economicpolicies in the Community with a view to contributing tothe achievement of the objectives of the Community as laiddown in Article 2 [e.g. economic growth].

=⇒ Der Gesetzgeber geht offensichtlich davon aus, dass ZentralbankenEinfluß auf das reale Geschehen in einer Volkswirtschaft haben.












Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the historyof the Phillips curve (11. Juni 2008)

• Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the history of thePhillips curve (11. Juni 2008):

After years of Keynesians/Monetarists controversies over thesources of inflation, a consensus has emerged and is nowdominant in macroeconomic theory and practice: inflation isa monetary phenomenon. In the long term, monetary policycan only influence nominal variables. The consensus modelcentered around a reconstructed Phillips curve - unlike itsinfamous predecessor - grants no free lunch to policymakers.


Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the historyof the Phillips curve (11. Juni 2008)

• Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the history of thePhillips curve (11. Juni 2008):

After years of Keynesians/Monetarists controversies over thesources of inflation, a consensus has emerged and is nowdominant in macroeconomic theory and practice: inflation isa monetary phenomenon. In the long term, monetary policycan only influence nominal variables. The consensus modelcentered around a reconstructed Phillips curve - unlike itsinfamous predecessor - grants no free lunch to policymakers.


Bye, Bye Phillips Curve (Wall Street Journal, 28. Februar2007)

• Wall Street Journal, 28. Februar 2007:

“... Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was askedtoday by the ranking Republican on the House BudgetCommission, Paul Ryan, about the growing body ofevidence that unemployment and inflation are not nearly aslinked as a concept known to economists as the Phillipscurve suggests, an issue raised in a Feb. 26 story on pageone of The Wall Street Journal. ...Agreed, said the Fed chairman. It’s true that the empiricalevidence suggests that the link is looser, that there’s lessresponsiveness of inflation to employment conditions thanthere perhaps may have been in past decades, he said...”


Bye, Bye Phillips Curve (Wall Street Journal, 28. Februar2007)

• Wall Street Journal, 28. Februar 2007:“... Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was askedtoday by the ranking Republican on the House BudgetCommission, Paul Ryan, about the growing body ofevidence that unemployment and inflation are not nearly aslinked as a concept known to economists as the Phillipscurve suggests, an issue raised in a Feb. 26 story on pageone of The Wall Street Journal. ...Agreed, said the Fed chairman. It’s true that the empiricalevidence suggests that the link is looser, that there’s lessresponsiveness of inflation to employment conditions thanthere perhaps may have been in past decades, he said...”


Die Phillipskurve: Definition und historische Entwicklung

• Die Phillipskurve (zurückgehend auf Phillips, 1958) bezeichneteursprünglich (1950er Jahre) eine beobachtete inverse Beziehungzwischen Lohnzuwächsen und Arbeitslosigkeit.

1958] UNEMPLOYMENT AND MONEY WAGE RATES 285

year, an increase of 7 * 6 per cent. in 1900 and in 1910, and an increase of 7 0 per cent. in 1872. In no other year between 1861 and 1913 was there an increase in import prices of as much as 5 per cent. If the hypothesis stated above is correct the rise in import prices in 1862 may just have been sufficient to start up a mild wage-price spiral, but in the remainder of the period changes in import prices will have had little or no effect on the rate of change of wage rates.

U 0

cf.

E? 2 -

0 0~~~~

cl)

? -2 0

. ~~~~~~~~~~*

.-40 1 2 3 4 6 $ 7 8 9 10 11

Unemptoyment, %.

Fig,t. 1861 - 1913

A scatter diagram of the rate of change of wage rates and the percentage unemployment for the years 1861-1913 is shown in Figure 1. During this time there were 61 fairly regular trade cycles with an average period of about 8 years. Scatter diagrams for the years of each trade cycle are shown in Figures 2 to 8. Each dot in the diagrams represents a year, the average rate of change of money wage rates during the year being given by the scale on the vertical axis and the average unemployment during the year by the scale on the horizontal axis. The rate of change of money wage rates was calculated from the index of hourly wage rates constructed by Phelps Brown and Sheila Hopkins,' by expressing the first central difference of the index for each year as a percentage of the index for the same year. Thus the rate of change for 1861 is taken to be half the difference between the index for 1862 and the index for 1860 expressed as a percentage of the index

IE. HI. Phelps Brown and Sheila Hopkins, "'The Course of Wage Rates in Five Countries, 1860-1939," Oxford Economic Papers, June, 1950.

Quelle: Phillips (1958)






U 0

cf.

E? 2 -

0 0~~~~

cl)

? -2 0

. ~~~~~~~~~~*

.-40 1 2 3 4 6 $ 7 8 9 10 11

Unemptoyment, %.

Fig,t. 1861 - 1913



Quelle: Phillips (1958)






U 0

cf.

E? 2 -

0 0~~~~

cl)

? -2 0

. ~~~~~~~~~~*

.-40 1 2 3 4 6 $ 7 8 9 10 11

Unemptoyment, %.

Fig,t. 1861 - 1913



Quelle: Phillips (1958)Günter W. Beck () Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve 17. Juni 2010 7 / 13


• Später: Inflation ersetzt Nominallohn.

=⇒ In den 60er und 70er Jahren: Empirische Beziehung wird als“strukturelle” Beziehung verstanden.=⇒ Helmut Schmidt (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 28. Juli 1972, S. 8):

“... Mir scheint, daß das Deutsche Volk - zugespitzt - 5% Preis-anstieg eher vertragen kann, als 5% Arbeitslosigkeit...”


Die Phillipskurve: Definition und historische Entwicklung• Später: Inflation ersetzt Nominallohn.





=⇒ In den 60er und 70er Jahren: Empirische Beziehung wird als“strukturelle” Beziehung verstanden.

=⇒ Helmut Schmidt (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 28. Juli 1972, S. 8):“... Mir scheint, daß das Deutsche Volk - zugespitzt - 5% Preis-anstieg eher vertragen kann, als 5% Arbeitslosigkeit...”











• In den 70er Jahren: Phillipskurve “bricht zusammen”.

=⇒ Ursache: Anpassung der Inflationserwartungen















• Nach ihrem “Zusammenbruch”: Modifikation der Phillipskurven-beziehung=⇒ Neoklassische, um (rationale) Erwartungen erweitertePhillipskurve

πt = Et−1πt + β (ut − un) . (1)• Bei rationalen Erwartungen:

πt − Et−1πt = εt (2)=⇒ Phillipskurve ist vertikal.

• Folge: Milton Friedman (1968):“... the monetary authority controls nominal quantities directly,the quantity of its own liabilities. In principle, it can use thiscontrol to peg a nominal quantity ... It cannot use its controlover nominal quantities to peg a real quantity - the real rate ofinterest, the rate of unemployment, ...”

=⇒ Zentralbanken sollten keine Stabilisierungspolitik betreiben.


Die Phillipskurve: Definition und historische Entwicklung• Nach ihrem “Zusammenbruch”: Modifikation der Phillipskurven-beziehung

=⇒ Neoklassische, um (rationale) Erwartungen erweitertePhillipskurve






Die Phillipskurve: Definition und historische Entwicklung• Nach ihrem “Zusammenbruch”: Modifikation der Phillipskurven-beziehung=⇒ Neoklassische, um (rationale) Erwartungen erweitertePhillipskurve







πt = Et−1πt + β (ut − un) . (1)

• Bei rationalen Erwartungen:













πt − Et−1πt = εt (2)

=⇒ Phillipskurve ist vertikal.• Folge: Milton Friedman (1968):

“... the monetary authority controls nominal quantities directly,the quantity of its own liabilities. In principle, it can use thiscontrol to peg a nominal quantity ... It cannot use its controlover nominal quantities to peg a real quantity - the real rate ofinterest, the rate of unemployment, ...”



















=⇒ Zentralbanken sollten keine Stabilisierungspolitik betreiben.Günter W. Beck () Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve 17. Juni 2010 10 / 13


• Die herrschende Auffassung heute ist jedoch eine andere.

• Ben Bernanke (Interview, Juni 2004):“ ... I believe that we live in a world where stabilizationpolicy - stabilization of inflation as well as output - issometimes needed...”

=⇒ Hintergrund: Neukeynesianische Phillipskurve









• Ben Bernanke (Interview, Juni 2004):

“ ... I believe that we live in a world where stabilizationpolicy - stabilization of inflation as well as output - issometimes needed...”









• Auswirkungen eines geldpolitischen Schocks (Christiano, Eichenbaumund Evans, 1997)

Fed Funds Model with M1MP Shock => Y

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

NBR Model with M1MP Shock => Y

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.42

-0.35

-0.28

-0.21

-0.14

-0.07

0.00

0.07

0.14

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

-0.00

0.40

0.80

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

Fed Funds Model with M2MP Shock => M2

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

NBR Model with M2MP Shock => M2

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.84

-0.70

-0.56

-0.42

-0.28

-0.14

0.00

0.14

NBR/TR Model with M1MP Shock => Y

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.63

-0.54

-0.45

-0.36

-0.27

-0.18

-0.09

-0.00

0.09

0.18

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

NBR/TR Model with M2MP Shock => M2

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.96

-0.80

-0.64

-0.48

-0.32

-0.16

0.00

0.16

=⇒ Geldpolitische Entscheidungen haben relativ persistente reale Effekte.=⇒ Wie kann das erklärt werden?=⇒ Neukeynesianische Phillipskurve:

πt = βEtπt+1 + κx̂t , (3)

wobei x̂t die Abweichung des Outputs von seinem Niveau bei flexiblenPreisen bezeichnet.





0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.42

-0.35

-0.28

-0.21

-0.14

-0.07

0.00

0.07

0.14

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

-0.00

0.40

0.80

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25


0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.84

-0.70

-0.56

-0.42

-0.28

-0.14

0.00

0.14


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.63

-0.54

-0.45

-0.36

-0.27

-0.18

-0.09

-0.00

0.09

0.18

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.96

-0.80

-0.64

-0.48

-0.32

-0.16

0.00

0.16








0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.42

-0.35

-0.28

-0.21

-0.14

-0.07

0.00

0.07

0.14

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

-0.00

0.40

0.80

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25


0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.84

-0.70

-0.56

-0.42

-0.28

-0.14

0.00

0.14


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.63

-0.54

-0.45

-0.36

-0.27

-0.18

-0.09

-0.00

0.09

0.18

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.96

-0.80

-0.64

-0.48

-0.32

-0.16

0.00

0.16

=⇒ Geldpolitische Entscheidungen haben relativ persistente reale Effekte.

=⇒ Wie kann das erklärt werden?=⇒ Neukeynesianische Phillipskurve:







0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.42

-0.35

-0.28

-0.21

-0.14

-0.07

0.00

0.07

0.14

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

-0.00

0.40

0.80

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25


0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.84

-0.70

-0.56

-0.42

-0.28

-0.14

0.00

0.14


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.63

-0.54

-0.45

-0.36

-0.27

-0.18

-0.09

-0.00

0.09

0.18

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.96

-0.80

-0.64

-0.48

-0.32

-0.16

0.00

0.16

=⇒ Geldpolitische Entscheidungen haben relativ persistente reale Effekte.=⇒ Wie kann das erklärt werden?

=⇒ Neukeynesianische Phillipskurve:







0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.42

-0.35

-0.28

-0.21

-0.14

-0.07

0.00

0.07

0.14

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

-0.00

0.40

0.80

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25


0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.84

-0.70

-0.56

-0.42

-0.28

-0.14

0.00

0.14


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.63

-0.54

-0.45

-0.36

-0.27

-0.18

-0.09

-0.00

0.09

0.18

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.96

-0.80

-0.64

-0.48

-0.32

-0.16

0.00

0.16








0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.42

-0.35

-0.28

-0.21

-0.14

-0.07

0.00

0.07

0.14

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

-0.00

0.40

0.80

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25


0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.84

-0.70

-0.56

-0.42

-0.28

-0.14

0.00

0.14


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.63

-0.54

-0.45

-0.36

-0.27

-0.18

-0.09

-0.00

0.09

0.18

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.96

-0.80

-0.64

-0.48

-0.32

-0.16

0.00

0.16








0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.42

-0.35

-0.28

-0.21

-0.14

-0.07

0.00

0.07

0.14

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

-0.00

0.40

0.80

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25


0 3 6 9 12 15-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.84

-0.70

-0.56

-0.42

-0.28

-0.14

0.00

0.14


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

MP Shock => Price

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.63

-0.54

-0.45

-0.36

-0.27

-0.18

-0.09

-0.00

0.09

0.18

MP Shock => Pcom

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

MP Shock => FF

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => NBR

0 3 6 9 12 15-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

MP Shock => TR

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

MP Shock => M1

0 3 6 9 12 15-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


0 3 6 9 12 15-0.96

-0.80

-0.64

-0.48

-0.32

-0.16

0.00

0.16





Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve: Die Rolle vonInflationserwartungen

• Ben Bernanke (10. July 2007):Undoubtedly, the state of inflation expectations greatlyinfluences actual inflation and thus the central bank’s abilityto achieve price stability.

• Jean-Claude Trichet (31. May 2010):Credibility is crucial for ensuring price stability. As long asinflation expectations remain well-anchored in line with ourdefinition of price stability, long-term interest rates do notneed to reflect the risks stemming from an uncertaininflationary process. In an environment in which the centralbank fully preserves its credibility, economic agents do notneed to try to anticipate uncertain inflationarydevelopments, thus potentially fuelling inflationarypressures.


Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve: Die Rolle vonInflationserwartungen• Ben Bernanke (10. July 2007):

Undoubtedly, the state of inflation expectations greatlyinfluences actual inflation and thus the central bank’s abilityto achieve price stability.









• Jean-Claude Trichet (31. May 2010):

Credibility is crucial for ensuring price stability. As long asinflation expectations remain well-anchored in line with ourdefinition of price stability, long-term interest rates do notneed to reflect the risks stemming from an uncertaininflationary process. In an environment in which the centralbank fully preserves its credibility, economic agents do notneed to try to anticipate uncertain inflationarydevelopments, thus potentially fuelling inflationarypressures.






Documents

Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve: Einleitung - … · DieneukeynesianischePhillipskurve: Einleitung GünterW.Beck Trier,18. Juni2010 Günter W. Beck Die neukeynesianische Phillipskurve