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HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus nach Deutschland kam Zum Paradigmenwechsel der Geldpolitik in den frühen 1970er Jahren von Heinz-Peter Spahn Nr. 258/2005 Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (520) Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart ISSN 0930-8334

HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Page 1: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

HOHENHEIMER

DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE

Wie der Monetarismus nach Deutschland kam

Zum Paradigmenwechsel der Geldpolitik

in den frühen 1970er Jahren

von

Heinz-Peter Spahn

Nr. 258/2005

Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (520)

Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart

ISSN 0930-8334

Page 2: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Page 3: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische
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Für die Zeit nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg wurden zudem deflatorische Gefahren befürch-

tet, so daß Konzepte zur Geldmengenverknappung ±�angesichts der soeben überwundenen

Weltwirtschaftskrise ±� riskant erschienen. Die Prognose war zwar falsch, aber gerade im

amerikanischen Fall ließ die aufgelaufene riesige Staatsschuld eine Bekämpfung der Infla-

tion über Geldpolitik als fiskalisch zu teuer erscheinen; höhere Zinskosten waren im Staats-

Page 7: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument

gegen inflatorische Tendenzen empfohlen (Johnson 1963, Friedman 1968, Neubauer 1977).

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VHOEVW�HLQH�.RQWUROOH�GHU�*HOGPHQJH�NHLQH�.RQWUROOH��EHU�GLH�1DFKIUDJHHQWZLFNOXQJ�HUODXEH�

Some experts consider that the central task of monetary authorities is to keep a tight control onthe supply of money. If, it is argued, the central bank has both the will and the means to controlthe supply of money, and either keeps it fixed or allows it to increase only in step with the grow-ing needs of a growing economy, all will be well. [...] Our view is different. Though we do not re-gard the supply of money as an unimportant quantity, we view it as only part of a wider structureof liquidity in the economy. [...] It is the whole liquidity position that is relevant to spending deci-sions and our interest in the supply of money is due to its significance in the whole liquidity pic-ture. [...] The decision to spend thus depends on liquidity in the broad sense, not upon imme-diate access to the money. [...] The spending is not limited by the amount of money in existencebut it is related to the amount of money people think they can get hold of, whether by receipts ofincome (for instance from sales), by disposal of capital assets or by borrowing.

Radcliffe-Report (1959: §§ 388-390)�

'LH�(LQEHWWXQJ�GHU�*HOGPHQJH�LQ�GDV�6SHNWUXP�ILQDQ]LHOOHU�$VVHWV�I�KUW�QDKHOLHJHQGHUZHLVH

DXFK�]X�HLQHP�ZHLWHQ�E]Z���ZHLFK��GHILQLHUWHQ�*HOGEHJULII�

The money-quality of assets is something imposed by the business habits of people; it is at-tached in varying degree to various assets [...]. To label something as 'money', the supply ofwhich is to behave according to rules laid down by legal authority, is to build on shifting sand.

Richard S. Sayers (1957: 5)

Once interest-bearing financial assets are admitted as part of the 'money supply' (and [...] it isimpossible to exclude them if the notion of 'controlling the money supply' is to have any credibili-ty) there is no clear demarcation line to be drawn between 'monetary' and 'non-monetary' finan-cial assets. Any broad definition of the money supply is therefore arbitrary since it is invariablysurrounded by a spectrum of 'liquid assets' which are not comprised in it but which are closesubstitutes to it.

Nicolas Kaldor (1982: 72)

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YRQHLQDQGHU��VR�GD��LKUH�5HODWLRQ��GLH�8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW��MHGHQ�EHOLHELJHQ�:HUW�DQQHK�

PHQ�N|QQH�XQG�GHVKDOE�HLQH�LQKDOWVORVH�.DWHJRULH�VHL�

The fact that spending is not Iimited by the amount of money in existence is sometimes arguedby reference to the velocity of circulation of money. It is possible for example to demonstratestatistically that during the last few years the volume of spending has greatly increased whilethe supply of money has hardly changed; the velocity of circulation of money has increased. We

������������������������������������������������� =LW��QDFK�.DOGRU���������

Page 8: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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have not made more use of this concept because we cannot find any reason for supposing, orany experience in monetary history indicating, that there is any limit to the velocity of circulation;it is a statistical concept that tells us nothing directly of the motivation that influences the level oftotal demand.

Radcliffe-Report (1959: § 391)�

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Geldsubstitute können sich [...] keineswegs bilden, weil eine Nachfrage nach Zentralbankgeldnicht befriedigt wird. Ihre markttheoretische Funktion kann allein darin bestehen, ein Ansteigendes Zinssatzes zu konterkarieren. [...] Die Stabilität der Geldnachfrage wird nicht dadurch er-schüttert, daß plötzlich in größeren Umfang Kreditkarten verwendet werden, sondern dann be-stätigt, wenn der Zinssatz steigt und sich als Folge die Geldhaltung vermindert.

Hajo Riese (1986: 38f)

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Page 9: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Page 10: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Brunner and Meltzer provided an analytical framework capable of yielding either side's predic-tions, about for example, the significance of monetary impulses in generating inflation, or the ef-fects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand, thus establishing that these issues were empiricalrather than theoretical.The simple fact remains that a further 30 years of monetarist analysis has not been able to de-monstrate the empirical existence of a structurally stable transmission mechanism between mo-ney and inflation to the satisfaction of its own practitioners, let alone its critics.

David Laidler (1995: 331, 1989: 1157)

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Page 16: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Es ist schwierig, aus dieser [Fishers] Theorie [...] einen Sinn abzuleiten, weil es nicht klar ist, obdie Änderung im Geldwert als vorausgesehen oder nicht vorausgesehen angenommen wird. Esgibt keinen Ausweg aus dem Dilemma, daß, wenn sie nicht vorausgesehen wird, sie keinenEinfluß auf die laufenden Angelegenheiten haben wird; während, wenn sie vorausgesehen wird,die Preise von bestehenden Gütern sofort so berichtigt werden, daß die Vorteile, Geld zu haltenund Güter zu halten, sich wieder ausgleichen.

John Maynard Keynes (1936: 120)

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For the future, we envisage the use of monetary measures as not in ordinary times playingother than a subordinate part in guiding the development of the economy. [...] Monetary mea-

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Page 17: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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sures cannot alone be relied upon to keep in nice balance an economy subject to major strainsfrom both without and within. Monetary measures can help, but that is all. [...] We do not findany solution of the problem of influencing total demand in more violent manipulation of interestrates.

Radcliffe-Report (1959: §§ 511, 514)��

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The supply of money – whatever that may be made to mean – is not by itself a reliable policymeasure, and the authorities must seek rather to influence the general liquidity situation by op-erating on rates of interest. Given this approach regulation of the banks is required not becausethey are 'creators of money' but because they are the biggest lenders at the shortest (most liq-uid) end of the range of credit markets. [However] any severely restrictive control of these ope-rations is certain, over a period of time, to be defeated by the development of rival institutions;during the interim, the community will have suffered loss by interference with the most efficientchannels of lending.The obstruction to particular channels of finance have had no effect on the pressure of total de-mand, but have made for much inefficiency in financial organisation.

Radcliffe-Report (1959: §§ 504, 469)��

0HOW]HU��������NRQVWDWLHUWH�VSlWHU�XQWHU�9HUZHLV�DXI�Modigliani (1977)��GDV�)HVWKDOWHQ�DQ�HL�

QHU� GLVNUHWLRQlUHQ� =HQWUDOEDQNSROLWLN� VHL� GLH� OHW]WH�%DVWLRQ� JHZHVHQ�� GLH� HLQ� JHVFKODJHQHU

.H\QHVLDQLVPXV�KDEH�DXIUHFKWHUKDOWHQ�ZROOHQ��"Keynesians began by minimizing the role of

monetary policy but shifted eventually to highlighting the use of monetary policy for short-

term stabilization" (0HOW]HU�������25). Nun sei aber allerorten eine klare Tendenz zugunsten

einer regelorientierten Politik festzustellen, die im klassischen monetären System schon im-

mer dominiert habe.�� Die Strategien des Inflation Targeting und der Taylor Rule werden

merkwürdigerweise als Umsetzung monetaristischer Prinzipien gedeutet, obwohl (oder gera-

de weil?) hier die Notenbankpolitik immer wieder neuen Marktbedingungen angepaßt werden

müsse, zu denen auch Schwankungen der Umlaufgeschwindigkeit (!) gehörten.��

Meltzer erwähnt jedoch nicht, daß in diesen modernen Politikstrategien die Geldmenge

als endogene Größe gesehen wird. Damit schließt sich der Kreis zur oben skizzierten Debat-

�������������������������������������������������� =LW��QDFK�.DOGRU����������� =LW��QDFK�.DOGRU��������I������ Das hier gegebene Beispiel des Goldstandards ist dabei nicht überzeugend, da dieses System ge-rade erst unter der Führerschaft einer diskretionären, allerdings klar am externen Gleichgewicht aus-gerichteten Zinspolitik der Bank von England seine Blütezeit erlebte (Eichengreen 1987, Spahn 2001:97ff).�� Allerdings glaubt Meltzer auch nach den Erfahrungen in den USA noch an eine stabile Geldnach-fragefunktion.

Page 18: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Mit der Zunahme der wirksamen Nachfrage nimmt [...] die Beschäftigung zu, [...] bis ein Punktkommt, an dem keine überschüssige Arbeit zum dann bestehenden Reallohn verfügbar ist. [...]Die Bedingungen des strengen Gleichgewichts erfordern daher, daß die Löhne und Preise [...]im gleichen Verhältnis wie die Ausgabe steigen, wenn die [...] Menge der Produktion und derBeschäftigung [...] unverändert bleiben soll. Das heißt, wir haben einen Zustand erreicht, in wel-chem der rohen Mengentheorie des Geldes [...] völlig genügt wird; denn die Produktion ändertsich nicht, und die Preise steigen im genauen Verhältnis zu MV [d.h. zur umlaufenden Geld-menge].

John Maynard Keynes (1936: 245)

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It is puzzling to find it put forward as a discovery that a higher inflation rate will not increase thefull-employment level of employment: Keynes and Keynesians would not have claimed other-wise. [...] The Lucasians, by denying the possibility of involuntary unemployment – indeed, theyprofess not to know what it means – have given no reason why anyone should be interested intheir trade-off even if it existed. In fact, the world that they describe quite plainly needs no ma-cro-policy. Keynesians were concerned with the problem of pushing the economy to its naturalrate, not beyond it. If the economy is already there, we can all go home.

Frank Hahn (1982: 74f)

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In den Lohnforderungen der Gewerkschaften und in den Lohnangeboten der Arbeitgeber kom-men die Erwartungen der Tarifpartner über die Geldentwertung unmittelbar zum Ausdruck. Esist daher nicht verwunderlich, daß die Zuwachsraten von Effektiv- und Tariflöhnen nach wie vorbeträchtlich über die Rate des Produktivitätsfortschritts hinausgehen. [...] Die landläufigen Vor-stellungen über die Ursachen der Inflation versagen, wenn sich die Gesellschaft daran gewöhnthat, daß das Preisniveau um drei Prozent im Jahr steigt.

Sachverständigenrat (1966: Zf. 107, 203, vgl. 198)

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Page 25: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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In der 'neuen' Inflation sind die Zusammenhänge komplexer, weil nicht nur die Nachfrager diePreise nach oben ziehen, sondern auch die Anbieter sie nach oben drücken und weil beides inder reichen und daher [?] reichlich mit Liquidität versorgten Wirtschaft auch ohne Geldvermeh-rung keine Schwierigkeiten bereitet, sofern nur das Ziehen und Drücken einigermaßen imGleichtakt vor sich geht – im nationalen wie im internationalen Rahmen.

Sachverständigenrat (1966: Zf. 256, vgl. 204ff)

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Page 28: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Der Z[entral]B[ank]R[at] gab vor, die Preisniveauentwicklung im Griff zu haben. In Wahrheitstand er über weite Strecken fast hilflos der Geldmengenerhöhung gegenüber. Sein größer Bei-trag zum 'Wirtschaftswunder' bestand darin, daß er diese nicht als Problem für die Bewahrungder Preisstabilität ansah, sondern entsprechend seiner produktionspolitischen Orientierung alsSchmiermittel der 'Mengenkonjunktur', jedenfalls solange die Tarifpartner nicht mit einer ent-sprechenden Erhöhung des Lohnstückkostenniveaus reagierten.

Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich (1998: 429)

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Page 29: HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus … · +HLQ] 3HWHU6SDKQ haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument gegen inflatorische

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Das Substrat der wirtschaftlichen Interessen in einer arbeitsteiligen Wirtschaft ist das Geld. DieMenge und damit auf die Dauer auch der Wert des Geldes sollten daher nicht zur Dispositionderer stehen, die es begehren – auch nicht zur Disposition des Staates [...]. Die um das GeldStreitenden sollten sich die Menge des insgesamt verfügbaren Geldes also von außen vorge-ben lassen. [...] Stabilität des Geldwerts ist dann kein Ziel mehr, sondern eine Spielregel.

Sachverständigenrat (1974: Zf. 372, vgl. 374ff, 1972: Zf. 352ff, 395).

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Daß es einer Kontrolle der Geldschöpfung bedarf, kann nicht zweifelhaft sein. Sie ist ein Grund-erfordernis der arbeitsteiligen Wirtschaftsordnung. Es ist nicht eine nach Deutschland mit Ver-spätung gelangte Modeerscheinung, sich Sorge um die Kontrolle der Geldschöpfung zu ma-chen. Es ist vielmehr von jeher als eine vorrangige Verantwortung des Staates angesehen wor-den, für 'gutes', wertstabiles Geld zu sorgen.

Horst Bockelmann (1974: 159)

Der Übergang der Bundesbank von einem mehr liquiditätsorientierten Konzept zur Zentralbank-geldsteuerung ist auch nicht nur vor dem Hintergrund der geldtheoretischen Diskussion zu se-hen, die schon Jahre vorher einsetzte, sondern auch als Reaktion auf Veränderungen in den in-stitutionellen Gegebenheiten, insbesondere der Aufgabe des Systems fester Wechselkurse.

Helmut Schlesinger (1976: 451)

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