Google Confidential and Proprietary 1
Internet Trends
Google Confidential and Proprietary 2
„Einkaufen per Internet bleibt ein nettes,
kleines Zusatzgeschäft.“
Quote “Deutschland 2010” (published 2001)
Horst W. Opaschowski “Deutschland 2010”, (2001)
Google Confidential and Proprietary 3
Technology Drives Consumer Trends
Google Confidential and Proprietary 4
Moore‟s Law
Google Confidential and Proprietary 5
New Devices
Google Confidential and Proprietary 6
Better Networks
Google Confidential and Proprietary 7
Technology results in Consumer Trends
Social
(3 C‘s)Mobile
Local
Trends
Google Confidential and Proprietary 8
Social
Google Confidential and Proprietary 9
I. Connecting
Source: Google Insights for Search, Switzerland
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Google Confidential and Proprietary 10
Millions of minutes (August 2008)
comScore / Nielsen
Face
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2407 413 320 43 22
364 251 70 50 45
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Stu
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Wer
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liste
n
Kw
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Ja
pp
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745 604 143 130 105
Netlog
Win
dow
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Face
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Mysp
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Ba
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o183 176 145 122 120
Tu
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280 229 52 40 30
4061 582
Vko
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kte
Od
no
kla
ssnik
i
Ma
il.ru
MyW
orld
117
Face
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Mysp
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6
Google Confidential and Proprietary 11
Millions of minutes (August 2008)
comScore / Nielsen
Face
bo
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Be
bo
Mysp
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Frien
ds R
eu
nite
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Win
dow
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2407 413 320 43 22
364 251 70 50 45
Skyro
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Face
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Mysp
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Stu
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ke
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liste
n
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ick!
Ja
pp
y
745 604 143 130 105
Netlog
Win
dow
s L
ive
Sp
ace
s
Face
bo
ok
Mysp
ace
Ba
do
o183 176 145 122 120
Tu
en
ti
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dow
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280 229 52 40 30
4061 582
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kte
Od
no
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117
Face
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Google Confidential and Proprietary 12
The winner takes it all…?
1.3324.607Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10
source: Nielsen NetView
Unique User Germany
(Ø net reach)
3.393
2.548 2.417Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10
1.332k
4.607k
15.446k
2.548k 2.417k
3.393k
Google Confidential and Proprietary 13
Google Confidential and Proprietary 14
II. Contribution
source: Google Insights for Search, Switzerland
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Google Confidential and Proprietary 15
What Twitter is not…
Google Confidential and Proprietary 16
If the Twitter community would be 100 users…
David McCandless // www.visualizedthebook.com //v1.2
Google Confidential and Proprietary 17
“Few” is enough…
Google Confidential and Proprietary 18
III. Creation
source: Google Insights for Search, Switzerland
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Google Confidential and Proprietary 1919
How much People create on YouTube
Google Confidential and Proprietary 2020
20
TV vs. Online Usage (Min. per Day - Index)
Index
187%
43%
23%
100%100% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
TV light TV medium TV heavy
TV usage
Online usage
• „TV light user“ use video websites more intense while social networking sites
are frequently used by TV heavy users
Index Social Networking: 78
Index Video Websites: 121
source: GfK Media Efficiency Panel, Germany, TV light =lowest 25%, TV heavy= highest 25%, TV medium= 50%
Google Confidential and Proprietary 21
YT vs. FB: Less Overlap than expected…?
(exclusive)Unique User Facebook:767.000
(exclusive) Unique user
YouTube: 532.000
Overlap:1.207.000
source: Nielsen NetView, Switzerland
Total YouTube + Facebook= 2.506.000 = 65% of CH online population
Google Confidential and Proprietary 22
Paid Media
(online & offline advertising...)
Earned Media
(WOM, social media, tweets...)
Owned Media
(website, Facebook fan site...)
The New Media Mix
Google Confidential and Proprietary 23
Mobile
Google Confidential and Proprietary 242424
xxx
• xxx
Google Confidential and Proprietary 2525
Smartphone= Short online sessions
82%of „Smart Natives“ use their Smartphone for
amusement during a break
Google Confidential and Proprietary 2626
Usage Patterns will be very different
25% of all Android 2.0+
searches come from voice in
the US -
although voice search is less
than 12 months old!
Google Confidential and Proprietary 27
Local
Google Confidential and Proprietary 28
Mobile Drives Local
Google Confidential and Proprietary 29
Of all regular internet users in Switzerland…
Question: Thinking about online shopping to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
I see a product via mobile internet and buy it spontaneously in a store
nearby
I find informationabout a product on the go and try to find out
more directly via mobile internet
Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010
9%18%
Google Confidential and Proprietary 30
The Internet in the Decision Process
Google Confidential and Proprietary 31
Multi Channel
Online Research Offline Purchase
Research Online, Purchase Offline (ROPO) / Online2Store (O2S)
→ Statistical Evidence…?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 32
Level 1: Self-Reported Data
Google Confidential and Proprietary 33
www.consumerbarometer.com
Google Confidential and Proprietary 34
Hotels: Most Purchases Start in the Internet
Out of 10 CH customers...
... 5 buy online
...8 search the internet before...
Research online ?
Buy online ?
yes no
yes
78% 21%
54% 23%
no
Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010
Google Confidential and Proprietary 35
ROPO Effect – Online has more Value
35
Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010
• In other words: Online Marketing influences 43% more Hotel bookings than
the online conversion tracking will suggest
100%
43%
Research Online,
Purchase Online
Research Online,
Purchase Offline
Total Online
Research Effect
ROPO
OnlineBooking
Google Confidential and Proprietary 36
Online Conversion vs. ROPO Effect
7%
13%12%
9%
2%
19%
32%
18%26%
3%
35%37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Digital
Camera/Camcorder
Computer Software /
Video games
Package Holidays CDs / DVDs Health products Event tickets
Purchase Online Research Online Purchase Offline (ROPO)
• Across all products a significant number of CH consumers research online
before purchasing offline
Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010
Google Confidential and Proprietary 37
Information Sources in Research Process
37
• Search engines are the most commonly used type of website for online
research, followed by manufacturer sites
Websites Used for Online Research
Base: Onliner
Question: Thinking in general, what sorts of websites do you use in researching purchases you make either online or elsewhere e.g. in a store / agency / showroom / phone, etc.
Source: TNS Infratest Consumer Commerce Barometer Switzerland 2010
1%
2%
3%
4%
7%
8%
12%
30%
33%
40%
47%
55%
71%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Microblogs
Blogs
Financial
Bulletin Boards
Social Networking
Video Portals
ConsumerReviews
Mapping
Online auction
Price Comparison
Retailer
Manufacturer
Search Engines
Google Confidential and Proprietary 38
Google Confidential and Proprietary 39
Level 2: Observational Data
Google Confidential and Proprietary 40Source: GfK MEP Germany; basis: product buyer
Online Conversion vs. ROPO Effect
38% 49%
29%
48%29%
37%
11%16% 15%20% 22%
10%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
all products banking insurance fashion broadband mobile
Purchase Online Research Online Purchase Offline (ROPO)
• Key question: How much does online research process influence the offline
purchase?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 41
Kerstin*, female, 28 years, employed
6. Offline contract at R+V:
Car insurance
Reason: cheap tarif, well-
known and trusted insurance
company
15.11.2009*
5. Visit on check24.de (time
spent: 13:55 min)
08.11.2009
1. Google search „allianz
versicherung“
2. Visit on allianz.de (time
spent: 2:47 min)
3. Google search „r-v
versicherung“
4. Visit on ruv.de (time spent:
12:47 min)
19.10.2009
Key metrics for Kerstin’s* research process
- 2 Google queries
- 3 (unique) domains, 18 sites in total, total time spent: 29:39 min.
- ROPO
* not real name
Monitor Online Behaviour Prior to Offline Purchase
Google Confidential and Proprietary 42
Media Efficiency Panel (MEP)
Demographics:
• gender, age, income etc.
• mail address
→ match with client database
Media usage:
• web usage measured
→ website visits
→ ad impressions (display & AW)
→ ad clicks
• TV measured
• media questionnaire
→ Print, Radio, (outdoor)
Sales:
• CPG purchases
→ ongoing
• other vertical purchases
→ quaterly
→ Travel, Finance, Tech, Retail
1 2 3
Google Confidential and Proprietary 43
43
Duration of Online Research Process
• Duration of online research process is similarly long for online and offline
buyers
37.235
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Online-Käufer Offline-Käufer (ROPO)
days
online buyer offline buyer
37 days35 days
Google Confidential and Proprietary 44
Number of Unique Domains
3,03,6 3,7
1,82,5
3,6
4,8
4,0
2,3
4,2
5,2
3,5
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
all products banking insurance fashion broadband mobile
online buyer offline buyer
• Variety of websites visited during research process are directionally similar
for online and offline buyers
Ssource: GfK MEP; basis: product buyer who researched online
Google Confidential and Proprietary 45
45
13% branded searches
prior to mobile
contract
69%branded searches
prior to fashion
purchase
Brand vs. Generic Terms
• Share of brand/ generic keywords varies strongly between categories
Google Confidential and Proprietary 46
Number of Search Queries
7,6
10,9
7,0
2,94,9
12,1
7,19,2
4,7
11,5
19,9
3,00,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
16,0
20,0
all products banking insurance fashion broadband mobile
online buyer offline buyer
• ROPO consumers enter a significant number of search queries prior to
purchase
Ssource: GfK MEP; basis: product buyer who searched online
Google Confidential and Proprietary 47
Got it, online research process of ROPO‟s is as
impactful as for online buyers BUT…
… how many of my offline sales actually orginate
from the web?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 48
Level 3: Attribution
Google Confidential and Proprietary 4949
Inbound calls hotline:
Consumer sign contract on
the phone or request contract
proposal
Product website w/ number:
A dedicated hotline number
appears for users who came
on the website via AdWords
Google AdWords:
Consumer searches for an
insurance product, e.g.
“health insurance”
Call Tracking
Google Confidential and Proprietary 5050Source: KQV
Contracts through AdWords (Online & Offline)
• Tracking via the “AdWords” Hotline number shows: With each 100 contracts
online, AdWords generates another 18 offline contracts in the call centre.
100%
18%
118%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Online Contracts AdWords Offline Contracts AdWords
(ROPO)
Total Contracts AdWords
Index contracts
Call Tracking: Example
Google Confidential and Proprietary 5151
Index ROPO Uplift: Online Conversions = 100%
• Online2Store effect differs by advertiser (e.g. website quality), product (e.g.
complexity of the offer) and -perhaps- by market
11% 14% 18%40%
100%
254%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Travel Finance Finance Telco Telco Finance
Index contracts
Call Tracking: Benchmarking
Google Confidential and Proprietary 52
Google Tracking Solutions In Progress
52
Call Metrics (coming soon)
Click2Call (launched)
Google Confidential and Proprietary 53
Level 4: Modeling
Google Confidential and Proprietary 54
Modeling = Correlation over Time
54
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Sales
Medium y
Medium x
Google Confidential and Proprietary 5555
Base
SalesSeasonality Regular
pricePrice
promotion
TV
Advertising Catalogues PressRadio &
OOHOther Web traffic to
pccity.es
42%
12%
8%
2%
5%
15%
11%
3%1% 1%
Spain - PC City: Drivers of offline sales
62% of PC City sales are non
marketing drivers
38% of PcCity sales are
influenced by Marketing
Base sales volume
includes influence from
existing store network,
employee workforce,
existing infrastructure
distribution, seasonality,
underlying consumer
demand etc..
The Website is responsible for 11% of offline revenue
Google Confidential and Proprietary 56
€1.40
56
Paid Search
9%
Catalogues
42%Outdoor
3%
Press3%
TV43%
Last year 23 Aug – 11 Oct 2009 (8 weeks) Optimal Mix for 24th Aug – 12 Oct 2010 (8 weeks)
Marketing ROI Marketing ROI€1.10
With the same budget a more optimal mix delivers an 6% revenue
Media Mix Optimization by PC City
Paid Search
1%
Catalogue
32%
Outdoor
1%Press2%
TV64%
Google Confidential and Proprietary 575757
France: Auchan
Google Confidential and Proprietary 58
Level 5: Experiment
Google Confidential and Proprietary 59
Test vs. control region:
• Compare revenue
development in test region
(w/ [increased] AdWords spendings)
vs. control region (w/ normal
or lower spend level)
• Requires control of other
sales drivers and similar
buyer structure.Test region
Control region
Experiment: Geo Test
Google Confidential and Proprietary 60
Lawn mower Bicycle
Source: hagebau April - June 2009
100% 95%106%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Index 2008 control markets
2009
test markets
2009
100%89%
96%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Index 2008 control markets
2009
test markets 2009
• Due to AdWords campaign revenue development in test markets was much
better than in control markets
Δ +11ppts
Index revenue
development
Index revenue
development
Δ +7ppts
Experiment: Home Improvement Store
Google Confidential and Proprietary 616161
Experiment UK: Vodafone
Google Confidential and Proprietary 626262
Experiment UK: Vodafone
Google Confidential and Proprietary 63
Branding
Google Confidential and Proprietary 64
User googles after being exposed to your TV Spot...
Google Confidential and Proprietary 65
... will search impact user„s brand perception?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 6666
Brands Other partnersAgencies
Research vendors
Research Project: Germany
Google Confidential and Proprietary 67
Study Design: Task based Experiment
1 2 3 4
TV ad experiment:
3.012 respondents had contact
to six TV ads on their PC. The
commercial break was not
integrated in an editorial design
Online Task:
Following the panellists were
asked to research online for the
advertised product category. The
respondent had the choice how to
solve the given task – they were
not forced to use a search engine
Search Experiment
of the SERP: Experimental
control of the exposure of search
results. Random assignment of
the respondents to the control/
test cells
Questionnaire:
Survey about the brand
perception
The effect of TV as well as
SEM can be analysed through
the comparison of the test and
control group
DIGITALCAMERA
You would like to get more
information about the newest
digital camera. Please find a
camera that is new on the
market.
Please do not use price
comparison sites. Apart from
this, search as you normally
research online
67
Google Confidential and Proprietary 68
52% used Google: Controlled SERP
AdWords of test
brand
Organic result of
the test brand
AdWords of control
brand
68
Google Confidential and Proprietary 69
Brand Awareness → Unaided brand awareness
Brand Funnel Variable
Image
Relevance
Loyalty
69
Brand funnel – Analysis of 4 parameters
→ Image
→ Relevant Set
→ Recommendation
Google Confidential and Proprietary 7070
Unaided brand awareness
• SEM raises the effect of a TV campaign – the unaided brand awareness
increases by 22%.
Index Unaided brand awareness
Aggregated result for 4 brands
Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,704Question: Which [brand] do you know,?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 71
Unaided brand awareness
71
Index Unaided brand awareness
Aggregated result for 4 brands
• TV in combination with SEO and SEA increases the unaided brand awareness
of a brand by 28% compared to „TV Only“.
Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,704Question: Which [brand] do you know,?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 7272
Index Unaided brand awareness
Aggregated result for 4 brands
• The impression to AdWords only has also a significant effect
Unaided brand awareness
Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,014Question: Which [brand] do you know,?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 73
Competitor effect
Test brand
Competitor
100
100
Both brands do
not advertise
97
147134
120
163
139
Test brand
runs TV ad
Only competitor
runs AdWords
Test brand also runs
AdWords
73
• A TV campaign that is not accompanied with a search campaign increases the
awareness of the competitor.
Index Unaided brand awareness (Base: Non user)
Aggregated result for 4 brands
Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1,330Question: Which [brand] do you know,?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 74
Relevance
Δ16ppts
Δ36ppts
74
• The effect of AdWords increases in evidence after a contact in TV – 1+1=3!
Index Relevance
Aggregated result for 4 brands
Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=1.366; TV and AdWords Base: n=1.704Question: Which [brand] would you consider, when you would purchase [product]?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 75
Conclusion by media agencies
40%
4%8%2%9%
11%
27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
campaign keywords
relevant keywords, not in campaign
usage of other search enginesdirect URL of the company
other keywords, not in campaign
other websites
websites of other manufacturers
75
• Campaign keyword list should have been 10% longer
Source: TNS Infratest, eye square; Base: n=12.048
Google Confidential and Proprietary 76
Coming back to the example...
Google Confidential and Proprietary 77
... have a look if your strategies are aligned!
Google Confidential and Proprietary 78
Summary
1. The internet is still growing
and offers unique
opportunities: It‟s not a
case of online or offline
2. Internet is more than just
the click: Stop thinking &
measuring in silos
3. Test! Learn! Have fun!
Striking the balance
Google Confidential and Proprietary 80
www.full-value-of-search.de
Google Confidential and Proprietary 81
Thank You!
Q&A